SNP to launch fresh Scottish independence campaign

[Bletchleyite]

I for one am quite sympathetic to the idea of independence right now because one look at the current cabinet of crooks lead by Boris Johnson makes Larry the Cat a serious enough alternative for the office of Prime Minister. That said seeing how much of a mess leaving the EU has been after just 40 years, I question Scotland's position of being able to leave a 300-year-old integrated union. I can't say I'm surprised by the calls though because independence is one of the SNP's core ideals, so one can reasonably expect this of them anyway.

I think this sums it up quite well, to be honest. I can see why they might want it, and they can have it if they want (but let's be clear, it is full independence - no currency union*, no funding support etc and definitely no political influence over things like EU membership - it stands on its own two feet from day one). The CTA could remain for people, but there would need to be a hard border for customs purposes if the EU was joined (a bit like Switzerland and Schengen).

Ireland I see a bit differently - it's just merging into an existing country, and probably easier for Westminster too as the Troubles, if there is any resurgence, become someone else's problem.

* We can't stop Scotland unilaterally using the Pound in the way Kosovo does the Euro. However any influence on monetary (or any other) policy must cease immediately on "independence day".

 

[Berliner]

The only way the SNP would go into coalition with anyone at Westminster is for a guarantee of a second independence referendum which makes it politically dangerous for Labour to even give the vaguest hint of a possible coalition running up to a GE.

The Tories would make it the key point of their election campaign aided by their supporters in the media with a constant streams of headlines along the lines of "Labour wants to destroy the union".

The thing is, does the average English voter even care about the union enough to make it a priority when it comes to the ballot box? I dont think enough do these days.

There is no serious English independence party, but many of the tories policies which they apply to the whole UK are only really that popular in England. They would be just as well rebranding as an English independence movement. At the very least it would force the idea to tbe mainstream and encourage real debate about the future of the UK. I find it odd there are successful, mainstream, vote winning, governing, nationalist parties in all other parts of the UK, but no one is giving serious thought about England going it alone.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Jun 2022 ==

I think this sums it up quite well, to be honest. I can see why they might want it, and they can have it if they want (but let's be clear, it is full independence - no currency union*, no funding support etc and definitely no political influence over things like EU membership - it stands on its own two feet from day one). The CTA could remain for people, but there would need to be a hard border for customs purposes if the EU was joined (a bit like Switzerland and Schengen).

Ireland I see a bit differently - it's just merging into an existing country, and probably easier for Westminster too as the Troubles, if there is any resurgence, become someone else's problem.

* We can't stop Scotland unilaterally using the Pound in the way Kosovo does the Euro. However any influence on monetary (or any other) policy must cease immediately on "independence day".

What makes you think Scotland would have any desire to interfere with UK politics after independence? It seems to be a theme of your posts. We have absolutely no influence in the running of the UK as a part of it, what is it you're scared about us doing if we left, exactly?

Also Switzerland has an open border with its EU neighbours. They are in a special category of schengen and have been for some time. They have a few tweaks to the system but for all intents and purposes they are part of the schengen area.

 

[westv]

I wish we could have had more than one BREXIT vote until I got the result I wanted - remain.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What makes you think Scotland would have any desire to interfere with UK politics after independence? It seems to be a theme of your posts. We have absolutely no influence in the running of the UK as a part of it, what is it you're scared about us doing if we left, exactly?

I am unwilling to allow an independent Scotland influence over monetary matters, and similarly to pressure England on whether it might wish to rejoin the Single Market or not.

Fundamentally, you're fully independent (so we'll relate to you the same way as France or Germany) or you're part of the Union.

 

[najaB]

We can't stop Scotland unilaterally using the Pound in the way Kosovo does the Euro. However any influence on monetary (or any other) policy must cease immediately on "independence day".

I am unwilling to allow an independent Scotland influence over monetary matters, and similarly to pressure England on whether it might wish to rejoin the Single Market or not.

Why? What reason is there for such a fundamental opposition to a currency Union?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why? What reason is there for such a fundamental opposition to a currency Union?

Because you are independent or you are not. I am utterly steadfast in this view.

You either work with us as part of the Union (which I'm happy to modify, e.g. to become more formally federalised), or you take full, and complete independence as a third country, to whom we should relate as if you were France, Germany or similar.

You cannot have your cake and eat it. Do you want independence or not? I don't think a lot of Scots have a clue what it actually means.

Independence means you are a third country. A trade deal would certainly be on offer, but no form of political union whatsoever other than if we both rejoined the EU, in which case we would relate as per any other EU country.

 

[najaB]

Because you are independent or you are not. I am utterly steadfast in this view.

But being independent doesn't rule out a currency union - cf. the Euro.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But being independent doesn't rule out a currency union - cf. the Euro.

To me it must rule out one with us. The UK decided it did not want to be part of a political union, and a currency union is necessarily political. It involves monetary policy not being sovereign.

I'm pro rest-of-UK* joining EEA/EFTA which would sort the border issue. However I am not pro us joining the Euro and never really was. Electronic currency exchange has rendered currency union irrelevant, and the constraints on our ability to manage interest rates etc are not to me an acceptable compromise. Thus currency union between rest-of-UK and Scotland is to me unacceptable.

There's not a lot we can do to stop Scotland using the GBP unilaterally, of course, but it would not control or influence monetary policy if it did.

* If you type "R U K" it changes it to RailUK Forums!

 

[gabrielhj07]

But being independent doesn't rule out a currency union - cf. the Euro.

It doesn't, however membership of any such union would surely be at the discretion of those who control the currency, ie if the UK wished to adopt the Euro, we would only be able to do so at the mercy of the EU. Similarly, should an independent Scotland wish to retain use of GBP, Westminster would have the final say.

It is extremely unlikley that this would happen, as relations between Holyrood and Westmminster would sour considerably.

 

[Struner]

Why? What reason is there for such a fundamental opposition to a currency Union?

Was there not a monetary union of eire & uk (a while ago)? The irish people would have accepted english pound notes (even though they have a cow in the front). Acceptance of irish & scottish pound notes in england always was & is a problem.

 

[gg1]

The thing is, does the average English voter even care about the union enough to make it a priority when it comes to the ballot box? I dont think enough do these days.

There is no serious English independence party, but many of the tories policies which they apply to the whole UK are only really that popular in England. They would be just as well rebranding as an English independence movement. At the very least it would force the idea to tbe mainstream and encourage real debate about the future of the UK. I find it odd there are successful, mainstream, vote winning, governing, nationalist parties in all other parts of the UK, but no one is giving serious thought about England going it alone.

I'm sure the majority care about it to some degree, how many care enough to change their vote is anyone's guess.

 

[najaB]

Similarly, should an independent Scotland wish to retain use of GBP, Westminster would have the final say.

That goes without saying.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That goes without saying.

And I am most strongly of the view that the answer must be "no".

Only member countries of the United Kingdom must be allowed influence over its financial and currency related policies.

If you want to use the Pound as a partner rather than unilaterally, you remain part of the UK. I'm happy for the exact makeup of that to change by way of two-sided negotiations, but in the end you must be subservient to the "federal" Government in matters of financial policy if you do.

Scotland simply cannot pick and choose.

 

[gabrielhj07]

The topic of currency is brought up in relation to Scottish Independence often, but only in the absence of any good ideas.

What are some other options open to Scotland should they become independent (assuming neither the Pound nor the Euro work)?

 

[Bletchleyite]

The topic of currency is brought up in relation to Scottish Independence often, but only in the absence of any good ideas.

What are some other options open to Scotland should they become independent (assuming neither the Pound nor the Euro work)?

It could institute its own currency. Could even be called the Pound; we don't have a restriction on the name. It'd just be a different currency - the SCP not the GBP.

 

[duncanp]

That goes without saying.

If an independent Scotland wished to use the Pound, they could do so unofficially, in which case they would have no say in the setting of things such as interest rates.

Or they could enter into a formal currency union with the UK, in which case there would have to be a legally binding agreement on things such as the level of the budget deficit, taxes and interest rates.

We have seen with the Eurozone what happens when you have countries that share a currency but have divergent economies.

Similarly if Scotland wished to join the EU and/or the Euro, their economy and government spending would be subject to the supervision of the E.U. for a number of years beforehand. And would an independent Scotland be a net beneficiary or net contributor to the E.U. budget?

If the rest of the UK was still outside the EU and an independent Scotland rejoins the E.U. single market (regardless of whether it becomes a full member of the E.U.) would there have to be a hard border with England?

There are also other issues such as the division of UK wide assets and liabilities, especially the UK national debt and responsibility for future pension payments.

All these issues can be resolved of course. But as anyone who has been through a divorce will know, whether the divorce is amicable or not depends on the willingness of both sides to compromise.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or they could enter into a formal currency union with the UK, in which case there would have to be a legally binding agreement on things such as the level of the budget deficit, taxes and interest rates.

We have seen with the Eurozone what happens when you have countries that share a currency but have divergent economies.

And that is why I am so strongly of the view that currency union with Scotland is not acceptable to me. Scotland can have a settlement where it is involved in English financial matters - it's called being part of the Union.

I'm in support of the EU as a trading bloc and free movement bloc which includes some level of political unity to ease those specific matters. I'm not in support of currency union. It's simply unnecessary in these days of electronic payment (cash is dying, and paying in another currency online or by card is no harder than paying in your own), and causes more trouble that it's worth.

 

[Sorcerer]

I imagine that a currency known as the Scottish Pound would be the most likely currency in the event of an independent Scotland. It already has it's own notes. That said, should the SNP further wish to pursue EU membership that would mean adopting the Euro as outlined by the EU website itself.

 

[d9009alycidon]

It could institute its own currency. Could even be called the Pound; we don't have a restriction on the name. It'd just be a different currency - the SCP not the GBP.

The bawbee, that would be what it would be worth*

*roughly about one old halfpenny!

 

[Berliner]

I am unwilling to allow an independent Scotland influence over monetary matters, and similarly to pressure England on whether it might wish to rejoin the Single Market or not.

Fundamentally, you're fully independent (so we'll relate to you the same way as France or Germany) or you're part of the Union.

Do you think it's ok for the UK to try and force the EU and ROI into taking action by unilaterally changing an agreement it already made with said parties over the NI border?

For the record I agree with you, Scotland should have no say in the running of the UK, although that is exactly the reality we have today anyway. If independence is gained I anticipate fully normalised diplomatic relations with the UK ti start on day one and when it makes sense to cooperate should we do so to the benefit of both countries. By the way, full independence would surely also mean all oil and gas fields in Scottish waters become the sole property of Scotland too, yes? No sharing of profits or furure exporation rights with tbe 3rd party UK without agreement. Same goes for any renewal energy or water supplies currently sent south, ss well as whisky and salmon exports. The UK must have complete independence from Scotland. The UK must be prepared to remove all nuclear weapons on or before day one of independence too.

I'd not want to use the GBP, I'd prefer the Euro. That said, whether we use the GBP with a formal agreement or not is entirely up to the Scottish government of the day.

 

[gabrielhj07]

If the rest of the UK was still outside the EU and an independent Scotland rejoins the E.U. single market (regardless of whether it becomes a full member of the E.U.) would there have to be a hard border with England?

Inevitably yes, although in practice it probably wouldn't work. See Northern Ireland for details.

 

[ainsworth74]

If, though it very much feels like when, Scotland goes independent that will be the thing which I will never, ever, forgive those who promulgated Brexit for. The destruction of the United Kingdom to serve their own small minded project.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Do you think it's ok for the UK to try and force the EU and ROI into taking action by unilaterally changing an agreement it already made with said parties over the NI border?

No.

For the record I agree with you, Scotland should have no say in the running of the UK, although that is exactly the reality we have today anyway. If independence is gained I anticipate fully normalised diplomatic relations with the UK ti start on day one and when it makes sense to cooperate should we do so to the benefit of both countries.

Yes, I agree. We should certainly have a trade agreement from very early on, for instance.

By the way, full independence would surely also mean all oil and gas fields in Scottish waters become the sole property of Scotland too, yes?

Once we've negotiated what Scottish waters are, yes.

No sharing of profits or furure exporation rights with tbe 3rd party UK without agreement. Same goes for any renewal energy or water supplies currently sent south, ss well as whisky and salmon exports.

I would expect we would have mutual trade agreements which would cover those matters.

The UK must have complete independence from Scotland. The UK must be prepared to remove all nuclear weapons on or before day one of independence too.

Absolutely fine with that. Of course, unless Scotland joined NATO or we had some other sort of mutual defence treaty, we wouldn't have an obligation to use them in your defence.

I'd not want to use the GBP, I'd prefer the Euro. That said, whether we use the GBP with a formal agreement or not is entirely up to the Scottish government of the day.

With a formal agreement it's up to the Westminster Government, and I strongly hope the answer is "no".

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Jun 2022 ==

Inevitably yes, although in practice it probably wouldn't work. See Northern Ireland for details.

It'd be easier to have a hard border between England and Scotland (I'm not talking Trumpian walls, but the kind of semi-leaky one you used to have between EU and non-EU countries in eastern Europe or between Switzerland and France pre it joining Schengen) because there's a massive whack of nothingness between the two. I don't think it would be disastrous, but hopefully will be avoided by England rejoining EFTA or EEA before any Scottish independence is finalised.

 

[Wynd]

Currency, we are really getting in to it now.

Some facts.

Jersey has a formal Currency Union with the UK.

Nothing could stop Scotland using the £ in an informal currency union.

Scotlands exports support the value of Sterling on international money markets, as does its £180B domestic economy.

At present, Scotland has virtually zero influence on Bank of England policies.

Monetary affairs are not to be confused with Fiscal affairs.

Scotland has had 27 new borders erected against it since 2016, EU membership would remove 27 and add a new one.

Scotland and RUK will have to co-operate on defense going forwards, regardless of the constitution.

 

[Berliner]

Currency, we are really getting in to it now.

Some facts.

Jersey has a formal Currency Union with the UK.

Nothing could stop Scotland using the £ in an informal currency union.

Scotlands exports support the value of Sterling on international money markets, as does its £180B domestic economy.

At present, Scotland has virtually zero influence on Bank of England policies.

Monetary affairs are not to be confused with Fiscal affairs.

Scotland has had 27 new borders erected against it since 2016, EU membership would remove 27 and add a new one.

Absolutely agree with all of this, especially the last point.

Scotland and RailUK Forums will have to co-operate on defense going forwards, regardless of the constitution.

And where is the RailUK Forums embassy going to be located? I suggest Carstairs Junction.

 

[Wynd]

The bawbee, that would be what it would be worth*

*roughly about one old halfpenny!

Annoyingly no one has as yet shown a comprehensive assessment of what a Scottish currency would be worth.

That being said, as a developed, wealthy, highly educated nation, its going to be a currency with value. Scotland isnt as wealthy as it should be, largely due to political decisions that have taken us to this point, but neither is it a poor country, and so, the currency would have a value comparable to Sterling, we just dont know if it would be harder or softer.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Jun 2022 ==

Absolutely agree with all of this, especially the last point.



And where is the RailUK Forums embassy going to be located? I suggest Carstairs Junction.

As good a place as any

 

[MotCO]

If an independent Scotland wished to use the Pound, they could do so unofficially, in which case they would have no say in the setting of things such as interest rates.

Or they could enter into a formal currency union with the UK, in which case there would have to be a legally binding agreement on things such as the level of the budget deficit, taxes and interest rates.

We have seen with the Eurozone what happens when you have countries that share a currency but have divergent economies.

Similarly if Scotland wished to join the EU and/or the Euro, their economy and government spending would be subject to the supervision of the E.U. for a number of years beforehand. And would an independent Scotland be a net beneficiary or net contributor to the E.U. budget?

If the rest of the UK was still outside the EU and an independent Scotland rejoins the E.U. single market (regardless of whether it becomes a full member of the E.U.) would there have to be a hard border with England?

There are also other issues such as the division of UK wide assets and liabilities, especially the UK national debt and responsibility for future pension payments.

All these issues can be resolved of course. But as anyone who has been through a divorce will know, whether the divorce is amicable or not depends on the willingness of both sides to compromise.

I agree with all of this, and @Bletchleyite comments as well.

With regards to the use of Sterling, the crunch will come when England has a growing / booming economy and Scotland doesn't (or vice versa). Scotland would not be able to vary interest rates to manage inflation or encourage growth.

Scotland would definitely have to contribute to the UK debt, including pension liabilities.

There is also a considerable Civil Service in Scotland, contributing to the UK government's work. Currently, 10 percent of all UK civil servants work in Scotland (source: https://www.civil-service-careers.gov.uk/scotland/), including HMRC, DWP, Cabinet Office, Ministry of Defence, Home Office, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, Operational Delivery Profession, Human Resources Profession, Policy Profession, Legal Profession and Counter Fraud Profession.(same source). It would be inconceivable that the English, Welsh and NI Government would allow their Civil Service to work outside its country, which would lead to many redundancies or displacements.

There are several reports that the per capita subsidy from Westminster is higher in Scotland than elsewhere. How will Scotland manage to live on a lower level of self-generated tax income, with fewer people in employment (cf the loss of Civil service jobs).

I am not against Scotland gaining independence, but I just do not see how it will survive economically.

 

[Sorcerer]

Scotland has had 27 new borders erected against it since 2016, EU membership would remove 27 and add a new one.

Let us not conflate borders with freedom of movement policies. Borders existed even when the UK was under EU membership, and unless Scotland joins the Schengen zone or has some kind of open-border arrangement it won't bring them down. Ironically, making free movement synonymous with no borders between the UK and EU countries is exactly what the likes of Nigel Farage peddled in their nonsensical campaigning.

 

[ainsworth74]

Scotland and RUK will have to co-operate on defense going forwards, regardless of the constitution.

And where is the RailUK Forums embassy going to be located? I suggest Carstairs Junction.

There was a filter in the software to auto correct rUK to RailUK Forums for some legacy reason or another. It has been turned off and I'm able to confirm that despite our wide ranging powers negotiating UK defence policy is sadly not one of them

 

[Wynd]

I agree with all of this, and @Bletchleyite comments as well.

With regards to the use of Sterling, the crunch will come when England has a growing / booming economy and Scotland doesn't (or vice versa). Scotland would not be able to vary interest rates to manage inflation or encourage growth.

Scotland would definitely have to contribute to the UK debt, including pension liabilities.

There is also a considerable Civil Service in Scotland, contributing to the UK government's work. Currently, 10 percent of all UK civil servants work in Scotland (source: https://www.civil-service-careers.gov.uk/scotland/), including HMRC, DWP, Cabinet Office, Ministry of Defence, Home Office, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, Operational Delivery Profession, Human Resources Profession, Policy Profession, Legal Profession and Counter Fraud Profession.(same source). It would be inconceivable that the English, Welsh and NI Government would allow their Civil Service to work outside its country, which would lead to many redundancies or displacements.

There are several reports that the per capita subsidy from Westminster is higher in Scotland than elsewhere. How will Scotland manage to live on a lower level of self-generated tax income, with fewer people in employment (cf the loss of Civil service jobs).

I am not against Scotland gaining independence, but I just do not see how it will survive economically.

Thats Scotland's civil service, which would still be required and which we pay for presently. Do you think there is no need for the CS in Scotland? We do have administrative affairs to attend to here you know...

Not seeing how it would "survive" suggests you may not be fully appraised of the facts of the Scottish economy.

The subsidy you refer to does not outline the finances of an IScotland.

Scotland's tax base is around £75B, and the Holyrood budget is around £40B. Whitehall keep the balance and spend on Scotland's behalf over and above this taking total, claimed, public spending in Scotland to around £99B. This is where the notional £15B odd arises from.