SNP to launch fresh Scottish independence campaign

[najaB]

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is to launch a fresh campaign for Scottish independence.

Asked whether she was now formally beginning the campaign for indyref2, the first minister replied: "Yes".

She also insisted she still planned to hold another vote before the end of next year.

Ms Sturgeon said she would unveil the first in a series of new papers setting out the case for independence on Tuesday.

She added: "Had we known in 2014 everything we know now about the path the UK would have taken then, I've got no doubt Scotland would have voted yes back then."

Nicola Sturgeon to launch fresh Scottish independence campaign

Scotland's first minister says she still plans to hold a referendum by the end of next year.

www.bbc.co.uk

So, it's officially back on the table. A second IndyRef by December 2023. As someone who voted "No" in 2014 and "Remain" in 2016 it's difficult to decide which way to vote now. I was very staunchly in the "No" camp in 2014 but I'll be honest, I could be convinced to vote "Yes" this time around. The devil will, as always, be in the details but the current trajectory of the UK government towards more authoritarianism (e.g. attempting to stifle protest, break the Unions, sending asylum seekers halfway around the world, etc.) is very much against my personal beliefs and values.

Are there any other members who are considering changing their vote if/when the referendum happens, or have your views stayed pretty much the same?

 

[Berliner]

My view is still strongly in the Yes camp and absolutely nothing I have seen from the UK side has or will convince me to support the union in either its current form or, as you point out, the future trajectory. The UK is simply not fit for purpose and I've believed for a very long time we would be better neighbours than flatmates.

I'm glad she's finally getting on with this, she's had mandate after mandate, won election after election and had one golden opportunity after another since brexit to kick start this campaign. Its about time we saw the words put into action. There is a pro independence Parliament in Scotland, 2014 was a political life time ago and the result from then is frankly meaningless now.

 

[gabrielhj07]

Still depends on Westminster of course, so holding a vote will be difficult.

2014 was a political life time ago and the result from then is frankly meaningless now.

True, although this leads to the argument 'why not vote every 8 years'.

 

[Towers]

On the same day that the utter mess of Brexit and Northern Ireland unravels still further. I wonder how long the current fragmented tribalism cycle will last before society decides once again that there is strength in unity!

 

[DarloRich]

Nicola Sturgeon to launch fresh Scottish independence campaign

Scotland's first minister says she still plans to hold a referendum by the end of next year.

www.bbc.co.uk

So, it's officially back on the table. A second IndyRef by December 2023. As someone who voted "No" in 2014 and "Remain" in 2016 it's difficult to decide which way to vote now. I was very staunchly in the "No" camp in 2014 but I'll be honest, I could be convinced to vote "Yes" this time around. The devil will, as always, be in the details but the current trajectory of the UK government towards more authoritarianism (e.g. attempting to stifle protest, break the Unions, sending asylum seekers halfway around the world, etc.) is very much against my personal beliefs and values.

Are there any other members who are considering changing their vote if/when the referendum happens, or have your views stayed pretty much the same?

Agree 100% - I wont have a vote so I hardly matter in this debate but my mum will and is in a similar position. I think many people are due in no small part to the behaviour of Johnson and his clown army

The bigger question is who gets out first; NI or Scotland?

 

[DustyBin]

Nicola Sturgeon to launch fresh Scottish independence campaign

Scotland's first minister says she still plans to hold a referendum by the end of next year.

www.bbc.co.uk

So, it's officially back on the table. A second IndyRef by December 2023. As someone who voted "No" in 2014 and "Remain" in 2016 it's difficult to decide which way to vote now. I was very staunchly in the "No" camp in 2014 but I'll be honest, I could be convinced to vote "Yes" this time around. The devil will, as always, be in the details but the current trajectory of the UK government towards more authoritarianism (e.g. attempting to stifle protest, break the Unions, sending asylum seekers halfway around the world, etc.) is very much against my personal beliefs and values.

Are there any other members who are considering changing their vote if/when the referendum happens, or have your views stayed pretty much the same?

I don't live in Scotland and nor am I Scottish, but I often travel up for work as my company has business interests in Scotland so this very much affects me. Personally I think independence would be catastrophic for Scotland economically and, as a consequence, socially.

In regard to authoritarianism I share your concerns, although as a Conservative/conservative (more the latter at present!) we'll inevitably disagree on some specific issues. Regardless however, what makes you think an independent Scotland would be less authoritarian? I'd argue that over the course of the covid pandemic the Scottish government demonstrated their own penchant for authoritarianism, and seemed to very much enjoy placing restrictions on peoples everyday lives. The warning signs are there....

As you're active on the Ukraine thread I should also mention that I think the timing of this is absolutely terrible!

 

[najaB]

I wonder how long the current fragmented tribalism cycle will last before society decides once again that there is strength in unity!

I was firmly "No" in 2014 precisely because I see strength in unity but, having said that, the component parts of the union need to have a common direction and purpose or it doesn't work.

I am not as confident today as I was in 2014 that that applies to the UK.

 

[brad465]

Agree 100% - I wont have a vote so I hardly matter in this debate but my mum will and is in a similar position. I think many people are due in no small part to the behaviour of Johnson and his clown army

The bigger question is who gets out first; NI or Scotland?

Despite being a Unionist party I think the Tories would benefit from it breaking up, as the constituent parts are largely anti-Tory and the proportion of pro-tory areas goes up if it's just England and Wales (or even just England). That is of course unless proportional representation is brought in before the Union breaks up.

 

[Towers]

I was firmly "No" in 2014 precisely because I see strength in unity but, having said that, the component parts of the union need to have a common direction and purpose or it doesn't work.

I am not as confident today as I was in 2014 that that applies to the UK.

But, on the flip side, how on earth does "Out" work?! And the aspiration to rejoin the EU, how to even begin unpicking the web of issues that would create! Having witnessed the utter clusterf'ck that was/is Brexit, I really hope that Scotland isn't banking on worrying about the details afterwards!

 

[najaB]

Having witnessed the utter clusterf'ck that was/is Brexit, I really hope that Scotland isn't banking on worrying about the details afterwards!

True. Which is why I noted that the devil will be in the details. One thing that I would need to see is a definitive answer from the EU about the prospects and path for Scottish entry and a broad outline of the terms. The UK Government specifically declined to ask the EU to make an official comment prior to the 2014 referendum and the Scottish Government could not (since the UK was still a member).

I have seen unofficial statements to the effect that there is no obstacle in principle which would prevent Scotland from joining the EU, and that while we would need to (in theory) have a plan in place to adopt the Euro they wouldn't put any time limits on the process.

Also, don't forget that at least 75% of the blame for the mess that Brexit has turned out to be so far can be laid directly at the feet of the UK government - I mean, our chief negotiator went to the wrong country to start the talks!

 

[Towers]

True. Which is why I noted that the devil will be in the details. One thing that I would need to see is a definitive answer from the EU about the prospects and path for Scottish entry and a broad outline of the terms. The UK Government specifically declined to ask the EU to make an official comment prior to the 2014 referendum and the Scottish Government could not (since the UK was still a member).

I have seen unofficial statements to the effect that there is no obstacle in principle which would prevent Scotland from joining the EU, and that while we would need to (in theory) have a plan in place to adopt the Euro they wouldn't put any time limits on the process.

The obvious one being borders, I guess?

 

[gabrielhj07]

I think leaving the Union on the grounds of disliking the present government would be a bit short-sighted. Governments come and governments go.

 

[Essan]

I've always been firmly No - because I believe in a united Britain (and a united Ireland). But I've now reached the stage where if some of the British can get away from Westminster, then maybe that's better than none. Although whether it might be a case of out of the frying pan into the fire is another matter ....

Be interesting if such a move prompts a reassessment in Westminster of our relationship with the EU - and new moves to rejoin the single market - though. Which might reduce the demand for independence in the north of Britain?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Jun 2022 ==

The obvious one being borders, I guess?

Aye, Scotland in the EU (and England not) would make the current NI border issue look like a kiddies picnic!

 

[najaB]

Aye, Scotland in the EU (and England not) would make the current NI border issue look like a kiddies picnic!

One (extremely sub-optimal) solution would be to access the EU via Ireland (assuming that NI remains in the customs union).

An extra day spent driving through Ireland would probably beat two days spent queuing to get to Dover.

 

[YorkshireBear]

I've always been firmly No - because I believe in a united Britain (and a united Ireland). But I've now reached the stage where if some of the British can get away from Westminster, then maybe that's better than none. Although whether it might be a case of out of the frying pan into the fire is another matter ....

Be interesting if such a move prompts a reassessment in Westminster of our relationship with the EU - and new moves to rejoin the single market - though. Which might reduce the demand for independence in the north of Britain?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Jun 2022 ==



Aye, Scotland in the EU (and England not) would make the current NI border issue look like a kiddies picnic!

I think it would make it look like getting yourself a glass of tap water! Can you imagine the social issues around putting a border where there hasn't been on for the last X hundred years.

Ignoring my massively remain leaving stance, Scotland becomes independent and joins the EU England would have to join the single market, there would be no other way.

However I hope it doesn't come to this. At some point the country will have to come to it's senses and get rid of Johnson. Voting to be independent because of him would be foolish, many people have more constructive reasons than that and I respect it, but this isn't something to use your protest vote on.

 

[Berliner]

Still depends on Westminster of course, so holding a vote will be difficult.


True, although this leads to the argument 'why not vote every 8 years'.

I think the supreme Court will have to decide one way or another. To be honest this PM and these tories won't ever authorise what they see as a legal vote (not sure how it can ever be deemed illegal to ask a population a question mind you) and it doesn't sit right with me that a whole country can be denied a say on its furue just because of the attitudes of the current PM. That man simply doesn't do democracy or follow due process, so why should anyone dealing with him expect to get anywhere if they choose to play by the rules he constantly ignores?

She'll have a huge task on her hands, but Nicola has no option but to deliver. She's promised it time and time again and the Scottish electorate have shown time and time again they don't want this issue to go away. Its not a case of every X years, but more a case of if the parties who propose this keep winning elections then why not keep it in the spotlight?

I think leaving the Union on the grounds of disliking the present government would be a bit short-sighted. Governments come and governments go.

The damage done by this government in WM from brexit alone will affect the UK for many decades to come, no mater who is in charge. Plus the proposed changes to WM seats will ensure even less representation for Scotland in the UK Parliament and a bigger battle to oust the tories in the future.

The same could also be said to those who oppose independence. Why base your opinion on the SNP? They are merely a vehicle to get independence. An independent Scotland run by wholly independent Scottish Labour, Liberal or Conservative parties, for example, is entirely possible and may turn out to be extremely prosperous. It would be nice if these parties gave us their plans on how they would run Scotland rather than just trot out tired excuses as to why we have to remain in the union.

 

[Acfb]

Agree 100% - I wont have a vote so I hardly matter in this debate but my mum will and is in a similar position. I think many people are due in no small part to the behaviour of Johnson and his clown army

The bigger question is who gets out first; NI or Scotland?

I think there might even be a border poll before there is a 'real' 2nd independence referendum given how strong Sinn Fein is now in the RoI (up to 37% in the latest poll) and I'm assuming pretty much 100% of SF voters in the RoI would vote for a UI. Personally I get quite annoyed when people conflate a border poll and a 2nd indyref. An independent Scotland would create a lot more problems whereas a Unired Ireland would solve a lot of issues.

This is really just kite flying by Sturgeon to keep her electoral coalition together. Also the SNP-Greens are not completely certain to retain a majority in 2026 which could even open the door to LDs and Tories voting for Sarwar as FM.

I voted no to independence in 2014 and would again but if I lived in Northern Ireland I would probably support Irish unity now (although I accept there are still questions to be asked about the economy, health service there).

 

[Kite159]

Is she trying to divert attention away from her latest failings?

Wouldn't it be better to spend the money she will waste on another attempt at a "once in a generation" vote on trying to tackle the cost of living etc

Spain will veto any attempt for Scotland to join the EU if they get independence, solely to prevent Catalonia from having similar ideas.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Ignoring my massively remain leaving stance, Scotland becomes independent and joins the EU England would have to join the single market, there would be no other way.

There is - a hard border. And I would find it unacceptable for a foreign country to attempt to interfere in England's affairs, so I would support that unless England chose, unilaterally, to rejoin (which I'd support, but it is absolutely none of an independent Scotland's business, and any attempt to force that must be met with an extremely unfriendly diplomatic response).

Be careful what you ask for. If you go independent, which is your right, you will be a third country, the same as France or Germany. You will not - must not - get favours or concessions. The choice is independence - full independence as a third country with no concessions - or to stay and try to fix the Union.

I am very firm and steadfast in my view that Scotland is independent or it is not. There is no scope for "independent but" other than in a federal type model.

 

[najaB]

Spain will veto any attempt for Scotland to join the EU if they get independence, solely to prevent Catalonia from having similar ideas.

Scotland joining the EU is now completely different from the Catalan question as the UK is no longer an EU member. Scotland joining the EU would not set a precedent for Catalonia.

 

[Berliner]

Is she trying to divert attention away from her latest failings?

Wouldn't it be better to spend the money she will waste on another attempt at a "once in a generation" vote on trying to tackle the cost of living etc

Spain will veto any attempt for Scotland to join the EU if they get independence, solely to prevent Catalonia from having similar ideas.

Spain has openly stated it would not veto Scotland joining the EU. Can we stop peddling this absolute myth.

 

[gg1]

I think leaving the Union on the grounds of disliking the present government would be a bit short-sighted. Governments come and governments go.

It's not just this government, for the majority of Scots it's a dislike of most British governments.

8 of the past 11 general elections resulted in a Conservative government or Conservative led coalition, in every one of those elections either Labour or the SNP had the highest share of the Scottish vote, often by a considerable margin over the Tories.

 

[Bletchleyite]

More of a question is when/whether Scotland would meet the economic criteria to join.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Jun 2022 ==

It's not just this government, for the majority of Scots it's a dislike of most British governments.

8 of the past 11 general elections resulted in a Conservative government or Conservative led coalition, in every one of those elections either Labour or the SNP had the highest share of the Scottish vote, often by a considerable margin over the Tories.

The SNP could easily solve that by forming a coalition with Labour, but both are too stubborn.

 

[Wynd]

Scotland's GDP is behind where it should be.
It is out of the EU.
Its deeply questionable if the promises that were made in 2014 have held true.
The future direction of the UK under Westminster/Whitehall management is, again, questionable.

Its hardly a surprise that we are back at this debate.

We are about to find out if Scotland really is a democracy or not.

Independence in the modern world. Wealthier, happier, fairer: why not Scotland?

This paper sets out a detailed analysis of the UK’s performance across a range of economic and social indicators relative to that of ten European countries. It is the first in the 'Building a new Scotland' series, focusing on independence.

www.gov.scot

 

[najaB]

The SNP could easily solve that by forming a coalition with Labour, but both are too stubborn.

If the Conservatives have a majority, how does a Labour-SNP coalition help matters?

 

[43096]

She'll have a huge task on her hands, but Nicola has no option but to deliver. She's promised it time and time again and the Scottish electorate have shown time and time again they don't want this issue to go away. Its not a case of every X years, but more a case of if the parties who propose this keep winning elections then why not keep it in the spotlight?

It should be at most a once in a generation thing ie every 30 years. It’s a referendum not a neverendum.

 

[d9009alycidon]

I was a staunch SNP supporter back in the 1970s as I felt that then we had a real chance of success as a separate country, we had the potential of oil revenues and a reasonably intact manufacturing base. Today I am totally against independence as I fail to see how this blundering SNP government could lead us forward without support from Westminster. They have a shocking record recently and just blame Westminster for everything that is wrong. My big concern is that like Brexit if she succeeds there is no way back and we could be in serious trouble, also I feel that independence in the modern world is just a pipe dream, it is essential that you are part of a larger group, beit the UK or the EU, and being a member of either means giving up part of your so called independence to abide by the group rules, rejoining the EU would be on their terms and this needs to be fully explained to the electorate. My fear is that the SNP will present an unachievable candy coated image of how life will be, and the reality will not be anything like that. Brexit should be a warning to everyone, be careful what you wish for.

 

[Sorcerer]

I for one am quite sympathetic to the idea of independence right now because one look at the current cabinet of crooks lead by Boris Johnson makes Larry the Cat a serious enough alternative for the office of Prime Minister. That said seeing how much of a mess leaving the EU has been after just 40 years, I question Scotland's position of being able to leave a 300-year-old integrated union. I can't say I'm surprised by the calls though because independence is one of the SNP's core ideals, so one can reasonably expect this of them anyway.

It's not just this government, for the majority of Scots it's a dislike of most British governments.

8 of the past 11 general elections resulted in a Conservative government or Conservative led coalition, in every one of those elections either Labour or the SNP had the highest share of the Scottish vote, often by a considerable margin over the Tories.

I feel like elections through proportional representation would remedy this for not just Scotland but many other anti-Tory regions because the centre-left and left-wing vote in this country is largely split. At the very least Scotland parties would get a proportional number of seats relative to their vote shares in Westminster.

The SNP could easily solve that by forming a coalition with Labour, but both are too stubborn.

Under the current system this probably won't do either party any favours because the Tories and their friends in the press will undoubtably latch on to the narrative of a coalition which threatens to destabilise the union, and Labour needs those Middle England seats to even have a chance at sitting on the other side of the house.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If the Conservatives have a majority, how does a Labour-SNP coalition help matters?

A stronger opposition. Which might lead to a victory in due course.

The Tories benefit from the fact that there's only really one right of centre party (give or take single issue parties like UKIP which now Brexit has happened is basically dead) but several left of centre parties. Were that not the case, the left would have more chance.

 

[gg1]

The SNP could easily solve that by forming a coalition with Labour, but both are too stubborn.

The only way the SNP would go into coalition with anyone at Westminster is for a guarantee of a second independence referendum which makes it politically dangerous for Labour to even give the vaguest hint of a possible coalition running up to a GE.

The Tories would make it the key point of their election campaign aided by their supporters in the media with a constant streams of headlines along the lines of "Labour wants to destroy the union".