Should We Leave the EU?

[radamfi]

Maybe Gibraltar can negotiate to stay in the EU even if the UK leaves.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The percentages on the poll associated with this thread seem to have remained constant now for many weeks.

 

[yorksrob]

Maybe Gibraltar can negotiate to stay in the EU even if the UK leaves.

I suspect that the Kingdom of Spain would be unlikely to agree to it.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Maybe if the UK leaves, and Scotland goes independent so that Scotland can remain in the EU, Gibraltar could claim to be a part of Scotland, not a part of England

 

[yorksrob]

Maybe if the UK leaves, and Scotland goes independent so that Scotland can remain in the EU, Gibraltar could claim to be a part of Scotland, not a part of England

Stranger things have happened !

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Maybe if the UK leaves, and Scotland goes independent so that Scotland can remain in the EU, Gibraltar could claim to be a part of Scotland, not a part of England

Complete this well known saying:-

Gibraltar is to Scotland as The Isle of Man is to........"

 

[EM2]

Did I hear correctly this morning that "fears" of a Brexit success has affected the value of Sterling in a detrimental manner?

This is from the Times website (the rest is behind a paywall).

A lead for the Leave campaign in European referendum polling over the weekend led sterling to fall in Asia overnight.

The pound dropped by as much as 0.7 per cent against the euro and 1.1 per cent against the dollar. A YouGov poll for ITV’s Good Morning Britain put the Brexit campaign ahead by four points, on 45 per cent.

With less than three weeks to go before polling day in the UK, Asian markets also faced a tough start to the week following disappointing US employment figures on Friday.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Never been more serious.

They're closing the border, that's a given, the minute we have officially left and aren't under EU rules; and I don't put shipping blockades past them.

They are doing their upmost now by extending border checks to as long as they can get away with, and are itching to shut the thing completely.

Not worth fighting over, let them have it.

With one caveat, they hand back the wee bit they have on the other side of the water.

 

[yorksrob]

With one caveat, they hand back the wee bit they have on the other side of the water.

Strictly speaking it's two wee bits.

 

[Howardh]

Strictly speaking it's two wee bits.

It's actually several wee bits, and one is a disputed piece of rock (with Morocco).

Meanwhile, if Boris and Gove are so hell bent on using the EU-saved money for the NHS, and it will die in our arms without it; why not channel the money earmarked for HS2 into the NHS first, and then crash on with HS2 should Brexit free up the cash?

I know which I'd prefer the money being spent on, NHS obvs. Or isn't there the same emotional blackmail with HS2??

Cynical? Me??

 

[miami]

Maybe Gibraltar can negotiate to stay in the EU even if the UK leaves.

Gibralter isn't in the EU. Even if it passed all the requirements, Spain would never* let it in, just as Cyprus would never* let Turkey in.

* never is a long time, but treat it as "in the forseeable future"

 

[Gutfright]

Complete this well known saying:-

Gibraltar is to Scotland as The Isle of Man is to........"

Prince Philip?

 

[Senex]

I'm seeking information. Am I right in thinking that technically the referendum is advisory on the government and not binding? And that if Brexit wins, all that happens straight away is that a process of negotiation to work out the terms of leaving begins, following the course set down in EU rules? What then happens if at the end of that process of negotiation the Westminster government decides that the terms on offer simply are not good enough to be acceptable? Do we have another referendum at that stage, or do we still leave regardless of the fact that the terms of leaving might be massively disadvantageous?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Today is the final day for those not yet registered to vote in this referendum to do so. Much has been made in the media that very many young people still have not yet taken this step.

 

[Gutfright]

I'm seeking information. Am I right in thinking that technically the referendum is advisory on the government and not binding? And that if Brexit wins, all that happens straight away is that a process of negotiation to work out the terms of leaving begins, following the course set down in EU rules?

From The BBC Politics website

Could MPs block an EU exit if Britain votes for it?

Michael, from East Sussex asks an intriguing question - could the necessary legislation pass the Commons if all SNP and Lib Dems, nearly all Labour and many Conservative MPs were in favour of staying?

The answer is that technically MPs could block an EU exit - but it would be seen as political suicide to go against the will of the people as expressed in a referendum. The referendum result is not legally binding - Parliament still has to pass the laws that will get Britain out of the 28 nation bloc, starting with the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act.

The withdrawal agreement would also have to be ratified by Parliament - the House of Lords and/or the Commons could vote against ratification, according to a House of Commons library report.

It adds: "If the Commons resolves against ratification, the treaty can still be ratified if the Government lays a statement explaining why the treaty should nonetheless be ratified and the House of Commons does not resolve against ratification a second time within 21 days (this process can be repeated ad infinitum)."

In practice, Conservative MPs who voted to remain in the EU would be whipped to vote with the government. Any who defied the whip would have to face the wrath of voters at the next general election.

One scenario that could see the referendum result overturned, is if MPs forced a general election and a party campaigned on a promise to keep Britain in the EU, got elected and then claimed that the election mandate topped the referendum one. Two thirds of MPs would have to vote for a general election to be held before the next scheduled one in 2020.

 

[Howardh]

I'm seeking information. Am I right in thinking that technically the referendum is advisory on the government and not binding? And that if Brexit wins, all that happens straight away is that a process of negotiation to work out the terms of leaving begins, following the course set down in EU rules? What then happens if at the end of that process of negotiation the Westminster government decides that the terms on offer simply are not good enough to be acceptable? Do we have another referendum at that stage, or do we still leave regardless of the fact that the terms of leaving might be massively disadvantageous?

Correct on all counts. In fact, the clever money is all the pro-EU MP's are chatting away about how to prevent Brexit should it happen.

There will be serious number crunching behind the scenes should Brexit not happen (ie we vote out) regarding the next General Election - who would lose their seats as *kickback*?

Can't see many wanting to kick out their Labour MP in favour of a Tory, UKIP would need a massive swing in those seats (and Labour - Ukip could let Tory in).

For Scotland not to keep their pro-EU SNP MP's would be unthinkable.

So the remaining chance of a kicking is to kick out all the pro-EU Tories, constituants are unlikely to change to pro-EU Labour so the swing would be to UKIP

So Parliamet would look like (very roughly) 100 UKIP, 200 Tory, 200 Labour, 50 SNP, 15 Libdems and all the rest, probably leaving a pro-EU SNP/Labour/Libdem coalition.

The likeliest option is we become EU-lite and join the EEA; and keep free movement of people and goods - using the Irish (lack of) border to explain why we can't stop people coming in.

Well done, Baldrick, that's that sorted.

 

[Muttley]

Or to put it another way, there's not a cat in hells chance of us being allowed to leave. The EU won't drop down to just 2 net funders, and our MPs will not allow their back up gravy train to leave without them.

So vote leave, get the sweetener, and just be a little bit better off whilst having the same circumstances.

 

[miami]

Or to put it another way, there's not a cat in hells chance of us being allowed to leave. The EU won't drop down to just 2 net funders, and our MPs will not allow their back up gravy train to leave without them.

So vote leave, get the sweetener, and just be a little bit better off whilst having the same circumstances.

Net funders are Germany, France, UK, Netherlands, Italy, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Denmark, and Finland, so UK leaving would drop to 9 net funders.

Or is this brexit maths?

 

[Johnuk123]

Or to put it another way, there's not a cat in hells chance of us being allowed to leave. The EU won't drop down to just 2 net funders, and our MPs will not allow their back up gravy train to leave without them.

So vote leave, get the sweetener, and just be a little bit better off whilst having the same circumstances.

Although I want out I think a lot of the undecideds will in the end opt for the status quo and we'll stay in.
Tory mp Mark Garnier was on LBC yesterday and he was quite adamant that if a Leave vote was the result hundreds of mp's would simply ignore the will of the people and refuse to pass the required parliamentary bill.
The other strong possibility is of course a second referendum which is how the EU works when it can't get it's own way.

 

[miami]

Although I want out I think a lot of the undecideds will in the end opt for the status quo and we'll stay in.
Tory mp Mark Garnier was on LBC yesterday and he was quite adamant that if a Leave vote was the result hundreds of mp's would simply ignore the will of the people and refuse to pass the required parliamentary bill.
The other strong possibility is of course a second referendum which is how the EU works when it can't get it's own way.

Well it's certainly possible the highly democratic house of lords could delay it, but the party whips in the tory party will obey Boris, and I suspect that many in the labour party will back it in any case.

My hope in the case of a brexit vote would be a vote of no confidence in the government, another election, a fracturing of the tory party into two parties, a collapse of the FPTP system, the sensible tory party campaigning with a promise to stay in the EU, labour the same (minus the nutters), and a sensible-labour/sensible-tory coalition government with a combined vote of at least 50% of the voters getting in and bringing some much needed reform to a system that has seen the tories being unsuitable for government since Thatcher resigned because of the eu issue.

 

[Johnuk123]

Well it's certainly possible the highly democratic house of lords could delay it, but the party whips in the tory party will obey Boris, and I suspect that many in the labour party will back it in any case.

My hope in the case of a brexit vote would be a vote of no confidence in the government, another election, a fracturing of the tory party into two parties, a collapse of the FPTP system, the sensible tory party campaigning with a promise to stay in the EU, labour the same (minus the nutters), and a sensible-labour/sensible-tory coalition government with a combined vote of at least 50% of the voters getting in and bringing some much needed reform to a system that has seen the tories being unsuitable for government since Thatcher resigned because of the eu issue.

So if there was a Stay vote you would also be happy if we then had a new Govt. by whatever means and they decided to leave without a new referendum.

 

[miami]

So if there was a Stay vote you would also be happy if we then had a new Govt. by whatever means and they decided to leave without a new referendum.

If there was a stay vote, then a vote of no confidence in the government, then if UKIP and the tory-skeptics managed to get 50% of the vote with a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, and then we left, I'd be fine with that.

If there was a leave vote, then a vote of no confidence in the government, then if Lib Dems and the tory/labour/snp eurofiles managed to get 50% of the vote with a manifesto commitment to stay in the EU, and then we stayed in, I'd be fine with that.

 

[Johnuk123]

If there was a stay vote, then a vote of no confidence in the government, then if UKIP and the tory-skeptics managed to get 50% of the vote with a manifesto commitment to leave the EU, and then we left, I'd be fine with that.

When was the last time we had a Govt. with 50% of the vote ?

 

[miami]

when was the last time we had a govt. With 50% of the vote ?

2010-2015, 54.4% of the vote.

But your question just shows how undemocratic the UK is, and why any arguments about EU democracy are doomed to fail.

 

[Gutfright]

2010-2015, 54.4% of the vote.

But your question just shows how undemocratic the UK is, and why any arguments about EU democracy are doomed to fail.

Just so I understand you...

A legislature elected by a majority of the electorate, like we had in 2010-2015, is undemocratic.

A legislature elected by 0% of the electorate, which is what we have in the EU, is democratic.

That's what you're saying, right?

 

[Nevillehill]

Ten more eastern European countries from the western Balkans and ex-Soviet countries are set to join, then there's Turkey too. There are already four million eastern Europeans here, and many unchecked ones with dire criminal records in their home countries. There are currently 987 Polish rapists and murderers in British jails as well as 690 Romanian murderers and rapists. Lithuanians make up the third biggest foreign population in British jails after the Poles and Romanians. Bulgarians are not too far behind. Tony Blair is to blame for this catastrophe and Cameron is just digging this country into a deeper hole. It's now up to the British people to rescue this country otherwise we're doomed. An example of the mass eastern European influx is that my local public library has signs in Polish, Bulgarian, and Romanian asking library users not cause trouble. If these unwanted migrants can't be bothered to learn English, then deport them. If they commit a single crime or do not have a job, deport them. Better still, just don't let them in,and we can only do that by leaving the EU. Vote out on D-Day - June 23rd.

 

[Muttley]

Net funders are Germany, France, UK, Netherlands, Italy, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Denmark, and Finland, so UK leaving would drop to 9 net funders.

Or is this brexit maths?

From the EU....

The European Commission estimates that there are more than 30 ways to calculate net figures for budget contributions.

...so it looks like the old lies, damned lies, and statistics, maths to me.
WWIII, if we leave, anyone ?

 

[Nevillehill]

From the EU....



...so it looks like the old lies, damned lies, and statistics, maths to me.
WWIII, if we leave, anyone ?

It will be WWIII, If we stay in and Turkey join the EU.

 

[miami]

Just so I understand you...

A legislature elected by a majority of the electorate, like we had in 2010-2015, is undemocratic.

A legislature elected by 0% of the electorate, which is what we have in the EU, is democratic.

That's what you're saying, right?

The legislature in the UK (the parliament) in 2015 was elected by votes of just under 50% of the UK (49.97%) I'm not sure in the EU, but in my constituency 92% of us voted for an MEP that was sent to Brussels to represent us.

The leader of the executive in the EU and UK are chosen by the legislature -- the entire legislature in the case of the EU, and the governing party or parties in the case of the UK. In the case of the UK in 2015 these represented 38% of the vote, in 2010 55% of the vote.

The rest of the executive branch is appointed by the leader of the executive in both cases. In the case of the UK they typically chose people from their own party that have been voted in, however they also can choose anyone else by making them lords. In the case of the EU the leader of the executive branch gets to choose from who the nation states send.

There's nothing wrong with the leader of the executive branch choosing people to work for them that haven't been elected. Look at the US, where Robert Gates served as secretary of defence under both Bush and Obama. He was the right man for the job.

The problem comes when the executive controls the legislature. Even in 2010 this caused problems, despite it being better than 2005 and 2015. That happens in the UK via the party whips. That makes the legislature effectively a branch of the executive, and that's a problem. That doesn't happen in the EU - there are no parties, or groups, large enough to have anywhere near a majority, and the whips power is greatly reduced.
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Ten more eastern European countries from the western Balkans and ex-Soviet countries are set to join, then there's Turkey too. There are already four million eastern Europeans here, and many unchecked ones with dire criminal records in their home countries.

What exactly does unchecked mean?

An example of the mass eastern European influx is that my local public library has signs in Polish, Bulgarian, and Romanian asking library users not cause trouble.

Photo please?

If these unwanted migrants can't be bothered to learn English, then deport them.

I'm really not looking forward to a million expensive pensioners and drug dealers returning from costa-del-crime
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It will be WWIII, If we stay in and Turkey join the EU.

And if we get invaded by aliens?

You really think Turkey will join the EU while they're occupying Cyprus? I agree that with Boris as PM and Douglas Carswell in government, the uk will be happy with them joining, but Greece and Cyprus?

 

[EM2]

There are currently 987 Polish rapists and murderers in British jails as well as 690 Romanian murderers and rapists. Lithuanians make up the third biggest foreign population in British jails after the Poles and Romanians. Bulgarians are not too far behind.

Going by your figures 987 Poles+690 Romanians+650 Lithuanians (at a rough guess)+600 Bulgarians (at a rough guess) = 2927 out of a population of 4 million. Or to put it another way, 0.07% of the Eastern European population of the UK.
What percentage of the UK-born population are in prison on charges of murder or rape?
What percentage of the ex-pat UK population in Spain, France, Italy or any other EU country are in prison on charges of murder or rape?