Should We Leave the EU?

[TheKnightWho]

Me saying another nail in the coffin of Remain is not me crowing about winning as although I hope it's a leave vote I know it won't be and I have never ever posted anything where I've said Leave are going to win.
So you're wrong - again.

That's stretched logic, even for a Brexiter. No-one talks about nails in coffins unless they think that thing is going to fail, and I think you know that.

I'm not surprised that you don't want to admit that you were wrong though, since that seems to be a running theme with you.

 

[Railops]

That's stretched logic, even for a Brexiter. No-one talks about nails in coffins unless they think that thing is going to fail, and I think you know that.

I'm not surprised that you don't want to admit that you were wrong though, since that seems to be a running theme with you.

Keep it up.

 

[Barn]

That's stretched logic, even for a Brexiter. No-one talks about nails in coffins unless they think that thing is going to fail, and I think you know that.

I'm not surprised that you don't want to admit that you were wrong though, since that seems to be a running theme with you.

Look at the above post again and ask yourself if this is the person you wanted to become when you grew up. Seriously what's the point in stuff like this?

 

[Aldaniti]

Latest ICM poll shows 45/45. All to play for.....

 

[Busaholic]

Latest ICM poll shows 45/45. All to play for.....

Not according to the poll conducted for the Daily Telegraph, and reported in that paper today: bearing in mind the Telegraph's pro-Brexit stance and constant promotion of Boris Johnson, its front page headline could be said to be significant too. It read 'Older voters turn backs on Brexit', and enumerates the three 'groups' that, for the first time, show more resolve to vote 'in' rather than 'out', these being older voters, Conservative supporters and men. The figures for those definitely intending to vote show 55% Remain with Leave trailing at 42%. The BBC Newsnight programme's panel of 8 undecided voters, shown on various occasions culminating last night, had a final vote last night in which 6 declared their likelihood of voting Remain and only 1 Leave.

 

[Aldaniti]

Not according to the poll conducted for the Daily Telegraph, and reported in that paper today: bearing in mind the Telegraph's pro-Brexit stance and constant promotion of Boris Johnson, its front page headline could be said to be significant too. It read 'Older voters turn backs on Brexit', and enumerates the three 'groups' that, for the first time, show more resolve to vote 'in' rather than 'out', these being older voters, Conservative supporters and men. The figures for those definitely intending to vote show 55% Remain with Leave trailing at 42%. The BBC Newsnight programme's panel of 8 undecided voters, shown on various occasions culminating last night, had a final vote last night in which 6 declared their likelihood of voting Remain and only 1 Leave.

We'll have to see. The media were conviced that the 2015 General Election would result in a hung parliament, a small number even said Mr Milliband would form the largest party. I can't recall many calling a majority for the Conservatives. Only the on-the-day Exit poll was accurate. As I said, its all to play for.

 

[ainsworth74]

On which note are we getting an Exit poll or do we have to wait for results to come in?

 

[Busaholic]

We'll have to see. The media were conviced that the 2015 General Election would result in a hung parliament, a small number even said Mr Milliband would form the largest party. I can't recall many calling a majority for the Conservatives. Only the on-the-day Exit poll was accurate. As I said, its all to play for.

I don't dissent from any of the above, but I'm predicting a 13 to 14% majority for Remain, the same as Sadiq Khan's majority over Zac Goldsmith in the London mayoral election. If I'm right, I shall remind you; if I'm very wrong, I'm sure you'll remind me.

 

[Aldaniti]

I don't dissent from any of the above, but I'm predicting a 13 to 14% majority for Remain, the same as Sadiq Khan's majority over Zac Goldsmith in the London mayoral election. If I'm right, I shall remind you; if I'm very wrong, I'm sure you'll remind me.

13-14 for Remain? Phew, that's bold! A complete guess but I'll join in and go for 3-5% for Leave. Perhaps equally bold! Good luck!

 

[TheKnightWho]

We'll have to see. The media were conviced that the 2015 General Election would result in a hung parliament, a small number even said Mr Milliband would form the largest party. I can't recall many calling a majority for the Conservatives. Only the on-the-day Exit poll was accurate. As I said, its all to play for.

Most polls had the Tories winning, although they all underestimated by how much.

Interestingly, phone polls were much more accurate in the last General Election than other kinds, and this time they have been consistently predicting larger wins for Remain.

 

[zuriblue]

You know, I don't buy this "Project Fear" nonsense that the Brexit crowd are spouting at all.

In the Scottish referendum, it was entirely legitimate to point out the potential adverse consequences of a decision to separate Scotland from the UK. Entirely legitimate. Sturgeon and Salmond were assuring us that yes, we'd be fine using sterling, we'd still be a member of the EU without any trouble, and we could still have Brenda as our lovely Old Queen. But taking all that at face value wasn't really good enough for a majority of the Scots electorate, and rightly so. Just because Alex says it'll be ok is no basis at all for such an important decision as to take Scotland out of the U.K. .

It was right in the Scots situation, and it is absolutely right in the EU referendum situation. Again, just because Gove says it'll be okay is no basis at all for people to vote to remove the UK from the EU. A decision of such moment needs far better justification, and demonstrable proof that it is the correct one. So far, that is entirely absent. So called "Project Fear" is entirely and unquestionably justified.

Apart from anything else, the implication that we should merely disregard any concerns or worries about the likely consequences of Brexit and simply grin beatifically as we take a giant leap into the darkness is frankly, highly insulting. Sturgeon and Salmond were arrogant and wrong in suggesting something similar and so are the Brexit crowd.
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Most polls had the Tories winning, although they all underestimated by how much.

Interestingly, phone polls were much more accurate in the last General Election than other kinds, and this time they have been consistently predicting larger wins for Remain.

Similarly in the recent local elections they were a lot more accurate than the online polls. One of the problems with the online ones is that they are a self selecting sample. YouGov have already admitted that they've been overestimating the number of Kippers.

 

[yorksrob]

"Better the Devil you know" is, of course, an entirely logical response, and it could well be that the electorate err on the side of caution. One issue I would caution is that we still do not know what the effect of a more deeply integrated Eurozone will be on how the wider EU works. In truth, I'd have preferred to have had this referendum in about five to ten years from now, once things have had a chance to bed down.

I'm also sceptical that "ever closer union" really has been halted, particularly in terms of market related initiatives which restrict national governments right to manage their own economies and public services (although as TTIP shows, this isn't purely an EU issue).

 

[miami]

"Better the Devil you know" is, of course, an entirely logical response, and it could well be that the electorate err on the side of caution. One issue I would caution is that we still do not know what the effect of a more deeply integrated Eurozone will be on how the wider EU works. In truth, I'd have preferred to have had this referendum in about five to ten years from now, once things have had a chance to bed down.

I'm also sceptical that "ever closer union" really has been halted, particularly in terms of market related initiatives which restrict national governments right to manage their own economies and public services (although as TTIP shows, this isn't purely an EU issue).

As far as I can tell the only opposition globally to TTIP seems to be coming from the EU. If we leave the EU I have no doubt Cameron will sign up to TTIP but without the benefits that the EU negotiates (after all the EU is a far more lucrative trading partner than the UK alone)

However by all means vote "remain" this time, and campaign for another referendum in 2024. At that point if only half of what Project Fear and the Daily Express comes to pass UKIP will win the 2025 election with a landslide

 

[anme]

There is a very striking statistic on this page: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9693

"[...]in the YouGov polls there was a Leave lead of about 30 points among people who left school at 16 and a Remain lead of 33 points among those who were in educated beyond the age of twenty. This is partially to do with age, but it remains true even within people of the same age[...]"

 

[ExRes]

And which of you are going to support the 'Operation Black Vote' poster?

 

[Geezertronic]

Can I just ask (and sorry if it has been asked before) - if Brexit get the majority (even a slim one), are the Government bound by the results of the referendum to start the process of exiting the EU? Or in the event of a Brexit slim majority win, could the Government turn around and ignore the referendum result?

 

[Johnuk123]

Can I just ask (and sorry if it has been asked before) - if Brexit get the majority (even a slim one), are the Government bound by the results of the referendum to start the process of exiting the EU? Or in the event of a Brexit slim majority win, could the Government turn around and ignore the referendum result?

If by a miracle there was an Out vote it doesn't have to happen.
If mps forced an immediate general election which is quite possible and a party campaigned on a promise to keep this country in the EU, if they then got elected the election mandate would top the referendum one. Two thirds of MPs would have to vote for a general election to be held and that would be very easy.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

"Better the Devil you know" is, of course, an entirely logical response, and it could well be that the electorate err on the side of caution. One issue I would caution is that we still do not know what the effect of a more deeply integrated Eurozone will be on how the wider EU works. In truth, I'd have preferred to have had this referendum in about five to ten years from now, once things have had a chance to bed down.

The timing of the referendum is purely cynical on Cameron's part. He knows full well that sooner or later the Conservative party will have to fight its civil war over Europe and he figures that having the vote now will still give nearly four years before the next General Election, plenty of time to fall out and regroup. It also gives him a well timed opportunity to take the wind out of Boris' sails before a leadership election, even though he expects to be standing down anyway.

I'm also sceptical that "ever closer union" really has been halted, particularly in terms of market related initiatives which restrict national governments right to manage their own economies and public services (although as TTIP shows, this isn't purely an EU issue).

Can we ever be sure about this issue? The rest of the EU, understandably, sees us as a bunch of moaners when it comes to almost every aspect of the EU but do our leaders really try hard enough to get them to understand why? Our geography and history means that attitudes here will always be somewhat different, we should do more to make that understood. Same way that France and Germany do see the EU as a way of maintaining more peaceful relations between them. Don't forget they fought three wars in 70 years and neither did very well out of any of them.

Can I just ask (and sorry if it has been asked before) - if Brexit get the majority (even a slim one), are the Government bound by the results of the referendum to start the process of exiting the EU? Or in the event of a Brexit slim majority win, could the Government turn around and ignore the referendum result?

They certainly could ignore the result. But they would have zero credibility, at home or abroad, if they did. Not to mention the near certainty of a Conservative party civil war, as mentioned above.

 

[anme]

Can we ever be sure about this issue? The rest of the EU, understandably, sees us as a bunch of moaners when it comes to almost every aspect of the EU but do our leaders really try hard enough to get them to understand why? Our geography and history means that attitudes here will always be somewhat different, we should do more to make that understood. Same way that France and Germany do see the EU as a way of maintaining more peaceful relations between them. Don't forget they fought three wars in 70 years and neither did very well out of any of them.

This is not quite how it is. The more sensible and fact-based concerns (i.e. not the ones you will hear from the "leave" campaign) British people tend to have about the EU are quite widely shared, e.g. in Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, the Netherlands, even Germany and elsewhere. The complaint about the British is that they sit on the sidelines and moan, but they never take the initiative and bring forward any alternative ideas or any alternative vision for the EU. Have you ever heard a British politician explain how they would make the EU better?

The idea that British people are somehow different from "Europe" is nonsense, and shows a complete lack of understanding of both the British people and the rest of Europe, which is not actually a single homogeneous mass.
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There is a very striking statistic on this page: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9693

"[...]in the YouGov polls there was a Leave lead of about 30 points among people who left school at 16 and a Remain lead of 33 points among those who were in educated beyond the age of twenty[...]"

Has anyone seen the film Idiocracy?

 

[Harbornite]

This is not quite how it is. The more sensible and fact-based concerns (i.e. not the ones you will hear from the "leave" campaign) British people tend to have about the EU are quite widely shared, e.g. in Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, the Netherlands, even Germany and elsewhere. The complaint about the British is that they sit on the sidelines and moan, but they never take the initiative and bring forward any alternative ideas or any alternative vision for the EU. Have you ever heard a British politician explain how they would make the EU better?

The idea that British people are somehow different from "Europe" is nonsense, and shows a complete lack of understanding of both the British people and the rest of Europe, which is not actually a single homogeneous mass.
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I watched a German comedy skit recently on one of their comedy programs. They were joking that Britain always "gets the extra sausage", which means that they get a better deal out of the EU than everyone else.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

The idea that British people are somehow different from "Europe" is nonsense, and shows a complete lack of understanding of both the British people and the rest of Europe, which is not actually a single homogeneous mass.

I come from European immigrant stock and have also lived for a few years on the Continent. I can assure you that most British people are most definitely different, if in subtle ways, to most European mainlanders. And it certainly does affect people's attitudes. Just one example, the whole concept of borders is much more important to us here, but is understandable given we are a sizable mass of island people.

 

[Welly]

The way I see it, the vote to remain in the EU will be seen by Brussels as an endorsement by ordinary Britons, of the whole EU Project including the Euro and the ultimate aim of becoming a United States of Europe.

I am not convinced that the Project will work in the end as all of us Europeans are much too diverse in our languages, cultures, history, geography and economies to be able to come together as one nation called United States of Europe.

So my advice to anyone who has even the slightest doubt of the EU Project's feasability should vote Leave if only to make it clear that the EU's leaders should think again about the project and pay attention to the ordinary European folk.

 

[TheKnightWho]

I come from European immigrant stock and have also lived for a few years on the Continent. I can assure you that most British people are most definitely different, if in subtle ways, to most European mainlanders. And it certainly does affect people's attitudes. Just one example, the whole concept of borders is much more important to us here, but is understandable given we are a sizable mass of island people.

Nobody denies there are differences in attitudes between countries. What people deny is that Europe is homogeneous, or that the differences aren't much greater within countries (on grounds such as class) than between them.

 

[anme]

I come from European immigrant stock and have also lived for a few years on the Continent. I can assure you that most British people are most definitely different, if in subtle ways, to most European mainlanders. And it certainly does affect people's attitudes. Just one example, the whole concept of borders is much more important to us here, but is understandable given we are a sizable mass of island people.

For the sake of moving the argument on, I will give you that British people might have a different understanding of borders than *some* people on the mainland (not everyone on the mainland lives near a border, though).

What other ways do British people differ from *all* people living on the mainland (or at least, the large majority of them)?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The way I see it, the vote to remain in the EU will be seen by Brussels as an endorsement by ordinary Britons, of the whole EU Project including the Euro and the ultimate aim of becoming a United States of Europe.

That may well be how you see matters, but it is most certainly not one that I share with you.

 

[Busaholic]

The Brexiters are asking us to vote Leave without giving any indication as to, if their view were to prevail, would be leading us out. Gove? Johnson? Farage? Do any of those names fill you with confidence? No, I realise Cameron and Osborne may not do it for you either (they certainly don't for me) but it may well be a case of better-the-devil-you-know.

 

[EM2]

For the sake of moving the argument on, I will give you that British people might have a different understanding of borders than *some* people on the mainland (not everyone on the mainland lives near a border, though).

What other ways do British people differ from *all* people living on the mainland (or at least, the large majority of them)?

Not everyone lives on 'the mainland' either. The Irish, the Maltese and the Cypriots to name just three...

 

[yorksrob]

This is not quite how it is. The more sensible and fact-based concerns (i.e. not the ones you will hear from the "leave" campaign) British people tend to have about the EU are quite widely shared, e.g. in Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, the Netherlands, even Germany and elsewhere. The complaint about the British is that they sit on the sidelines and moan, but they never take the initiative and bring forward any alternative ideas or any alternative vision for the EU. Have you ever heard a British politician explain how they would make the EU better?

I think we do have an alternative vision for Europe. The Conservatives may have dallianced with trying to impose market economics on everyone in recent years, but the real British vision is for a Europe "a la Carte", i.e. a very loose federation. Just because our fellow Europeans won't countenance it, doesn't mean the idea isn't there.

 

[RichmondCommu]

And which of you are going to support the 'Operation Black Vote' poster?

Well I certainly do. My wife is of Indian descent and along with her parents / siblings know all too well what it's like to be the victim of racist behavior.

 

[St Rollox]

If you need any help with Project Fear just ask the Scots.