Should We Leave the EU?

[Barn]

Well they understated the Conservative vote by ~3% and they overstated the Labour vote by ~3% which exaggerated the bias.

 

[miami]

Well they understated the Conservative vote by ~3% and they overstated the Labour vote by ~3% which exaggerated the lead.

So if the same margin applies to polls conducted from the 13th to the 19th
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini..._Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Remain is around the 48-50% mark, and Leave is the 39-41% mark. Add in a 3% miss and you're down to 46% vs 43% towards leave.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Well they understated the Conservative vote by ~3% and they overstated the Labour vote by ~3% which exaggerated the bias.

Because of status quo bias and the shy Tory effect. The former works in favour of staying in the EU, and the latter probably does as well given the vicious and relentless attacks by those who want to leave on social media.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Oh yes and of course the polls are never wrong are they?:roll:

And you're going to have to explain how they're wrong in your favour

I'm beginning to think you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about but you're just too proud to actually admit it.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Because of status quo bias and the shy Tory effect.

Not all of us are shy, by any means, as some of you who have seen some of my postings on this website will be aware....

 

[miami]

Not all of us are shy, by any means, as some of you who have seen some of my postings on this website will be aware....

I suspect you wouldn't have pretended you were voting labour but actually voting tory though.

Most Tory voters I know now fall in the category "Embarrassed Tory".

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I suspect you wouldn't have pretended you were voting labour but actually voting tory though.

Most Tory voters I know now fall in the category "Embarrassed Tory".

With Corbyn at the Labour helm and that party's espousement of "socialist" policy ideals, here is one "True Blue for ever" Conservative who feels no embarrassment whatsoever,

 

[miami]

With Corbyn at the Labour helm and that party's espousement of "socialist" policy ideals, here is one "True Blue for ever" Conservative who feels no embarrassment whatsoever,

Believe it or not I still have my rosette from door stepping for Ray Lacey in the 1997 election. I see the Tory party of today to be a far cry from that of John Major though.

 

[Busaholic]

I think you are taking the "back of the queue" quote too literally. What he means is that if there are deals to be done with the major nations and the EU, the UK will not be a priority - which is starkly contrary to what the Brexit people are screaming.

As the queue at present apparently consists of the EU alone, if the UK were to join the queue as a separate entity then it would indeed be at the back i.e. behind the EU!

Dominic Raab, Justice Minister (so-called) has admitted that Brexit could well lead to UK citizens needing visas to enter most European countries. Think on! By the way, Raab is a Brexiteer.

 

[furnessvale]

Dominic Raab, Justice Minister (so-called) has admitted that Brexit could well lead to UK citizens needing visas to enter most European countries.

I never needed a visa for any of the European countries I visited before we joined the EEC.

Why would I need one if we exited, apart from the obvious answer of pure vindictiveness on the part of the EU.

If they show themselves capable of such vindictiveness, it would amply demonstrate that it is a club I would rather not be a member of anyway.

 

[TheKnightWho]

I never needed a visa for any of the European countries I visited before we joined the EEC.

Why would I need one if we exited, apart from the obvious answer of pure vindictiveness on the part of the EU.

If they show themselves capable of such vindictiveness, it would amply demonstrate that it is a club I would rather not be a member of anyway.

So, in other words, you've reasoned yourself into being correct whatever the EU might do.

Almost like you've decided on your conclusion and are searching for reasons to justify it...

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I never needed a visa for any of the European countries I visited before we joined the EEC.

Why would I need one if we exited, apart from the obvious answer of pure vindictiveness on the part of the EU.

I'm fairly sure that before we joined, you would've needed a visa to visit some of the countries that are now in the EU (places like Poland, for example). The complicating factor now is the Schengen zone, which makes it impossible for us to have special arrangements only with countries like France and Germany, with whom we've traditionally been close and had relatively free travel arrangements.

I would expect the most likely scenario if we exited, is that we'd end up in a similar position to countries like the USA and Australia - able to visit Schengen zone countries as a tourist for up to 3 months without a visa, but would need a visa to do something like live or work there. We could of course probably keep basically the same arrangements as at present if we did something like join the European Economic Area and continued to accept visa-free migration from Eastern Europe, but I doubt that solution would be acceptable to most Brexiters (since in practice, it'd be rather akin to remaining in the EU but just losing our ability to vote on any EU decisions), so it seems unlikely.

The idea that we'd need a visa just to visit - say - France or Germany on holiday - does seem very unlikely to me. I can't see that happening. But there is a high chance that our freedom to live, work and study in Europe would be curtailed, which would be very unfortunate, especially for many younger people who are more likely to want to travel and experience life abroad, as well as older people who wish to do things like spend their retirement in the Mediterranean.

 

[Barn]

But there is a high chance that our freedom to live, work and study in Europe would be curtailed, which would be very unfortunate, especially for many younger people who are more likely to want to travel and experience life abroad, as well as older people who wish to do things like spend their retirement in the Mediterranean.

Young travellers, gap year students and recent graduates are welcomed by a large number of countries, who often have specific visa categories and reciprocal deals for them. Mediterranean retirees are a very important part of many local economies and it would be foolish to restrict them, so long as they are self-sufficient and not dependant on local welfare.

What probably will be harder is the relocation of unskilled and low-skilled workers and the speculative relocation of unemployed people for the purpose of job hunting. I do not have the figures, but my impression is that these types of flows to the EU are not common among Britons and they are precisely the types of flows that we might wish to control in the other direction.

 

[Aldaniti]

There were a couple of Vote Leave chaps in my town last Saturday, handing out leaflets. A bloke is handed a leaflet and walks on towards the Marks & Spencer store. As he enters, the local Romanian beggar - who is always in your face - asks him to buy a Big Issue. Said bloke says nothing, then quietly stuffs the Vote Leave leaflet into her pile of magazines. Had to laugh.

 

[deltic]

There were a couple of Vote Leave chaps in my town last Saturday, handing out leaflets. A bloke is handed a leaflet and walks on towards the Marks & Spencer store. As he enters, the local Romanian beggar - who is always in your face - asks him to buy a Big Issue. Said bloke says nothing, then quietly stuffs the Vote Leave leaflet into her pile of magazines. Had to laugh.

Someone selling the Big Issue is not a beggar

 

[northwichcat]

Someone selling the Big Issue is not a beggar

There are quite a number of people who sell the Big Issue who aren't official vendors, so the unofficial ones effectively are beggars. The Big Issue give maps of where official vendors can be found on their websites. However, saying a seller is Romanian isn't enough to say that they are unofficial.

 

[miami]

I'm wondering how Aldaniti has seen her passport

I remember when I moved to London after graduation (I'd been working in Greece for the summer). Didn't have any family within 200 miles so needed somewhere to live on short notice, so rented a room. All looked fine. Then I found out how many Eastern Europeans were living in the attic and working illegally in London (this was before 2005).

By all means leave the EU, and "kick out" the europeans. The ones doing unskilled jobs, the ones paid under the table, the ones "selling tissues" on the train, they won't leave, and unless we add very stringent visa checks there will still be no barriers to entry. The ones who will leave are the ones we won't want to leave.

 

[furnessvale]

So, in other words, you've reasoned yourself into being correct whatever the EU might do.

Almost like you've decided on your conclusion and are searching for reasons to justify it...

Please patronise someone else!

 

[Robinson]

IMO it's between a rock and a hard place. There's a lot about the EU that stinks; however the idea of unrestrained Toryism stinks even more. Which particularly hits me hard cos I'm in a relationship with a Hungarian student...

 

[TheKnightWho]

Please patronise someone else!

I'm stating what you did. It's not patronising if the best you can come up with is some half-baked damned if you do, damned if you don't for the EU.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm stating what you did. It's not patronising if the best you can come up with is some half-baked damned if you do, damned if you don't for the EU.

I think it's a valid observation for someone to point out that they were able to move relatively freely within Europe before the country joined the EEC.

It is also astute to suspect vindictiveness of a third party, should it decide to restrict travel where it didn't previously for no good reason.

 

[anme]

We could of course probably keep basically the same arrangements as at present if we did something like join the European Economic Area and continued to accept visa-free migration from Eastern Europe, but I doubt that solution would be acceptable to most Brexiters (since in practice, it'd be rather akin to remaining in the EU but just losing our ability to vote on any EU decisions), so it seems unlikely.

We don't have to please most Brexiters, even if we vote to leave - only enough to create a majority in favour of a certain option. Let's say there is a vote to leave by 55/45% margin. Persuade 10% of the "leavers" (i.e. 5.5% of the electorate) that EEA membership is the best way forward, and assume the 45% who voted to remain in the EU also back that, and you have a majority in favour. There's no reason to believe that the hard-core Brexiters will be in charge after a vote to leave - the referendum is not an election. Even if it was, there are many options and the "remain" camp plus enough of the "leavers" would make a majority.

Obviously, I hope we vote to remain, but if "leave" wins I will strongly support EEA membership, and like it or not, my vote still counts.

 

[NoMorePacers]

Saw the Andrew Marr show this morning, and Nigel Farage said that he is a Thatcherite. And, if we left the EU, UKIP would be pointless. Unless they campaign to leave the UN. They probably are that thick and snobbish.

 

[anme]

Saw the Andrew Marr show this morning, and Nigel Farage said that he is a Thatcherite. And, if we left the EU, UKIP would be pointless. Unless they campaign to leave the UN. They probably are that thick and snobbish.

Actually I don't agree that UKIP's work is done if the UK leaves the EU. There are very big questions to answer after a "leave" vote, which are simply not being discussed at the moment.

One question is what position the UK wants in Europe and the world. Options range from EEA membership, which would mean that not all that much changes, to cutting ties with the rest of Europe and starting from scratch.

As in my post above, EEA membership might well have a majority of the population in favour even after a "leave" vote. When I asked earlier in this thread what "outers" wanted after a "leave" vote, every single reply referred to EEA membership, or something equivalent such as the Norwegian or Swiss models. I'm not sure whether this reflects the views of "out" voters in general, but it shows there is a certain level support. However, I doubt it would please UKIP, who would surely campaign for more isolation from Europe.

The next question is who gets to make the choices after a "leave" vote, and how they are chosen. I think everyone agrees that Cameron is toast in this situation. Given that the choice is so fundamental - i.e. the future direction of the country, I wonder if it's acceptable for the person who makes this choice to be chosen by a leadership election in the Conservative party (which will be rather split after the referendum, whatever happens). I would not be surprised to see a general election, with different parties (maybe not exactly aligned with the current parties) offering a choice of EEA membership or various more isolationist positions. Alternatively, there might be another referendum once the choices are clear. Whatever, UKIP will surely want to influence this process.

So sadly I think UKIP will be around for a while what the result. And to be clear, I am strongly in favour of the UK remaining in the EU!

 

[Steveman]

Saw the Andrew Marr show this morning, and Nigel Farage said that he is a Thatcherite. And, if we left the EU, UKIP would be pointless. Unless they campaign to leave the UN. They probably are that thick and snobbish.

Nigel Farage never mentioned the UN so you might like to edit your post.

 

[NoMorePacers]

I meant they COULD, not they WILL.

 

[Steveman]

I meant they COULD, not they WILL.

Well you should have said that then rather than imply something that was never said to justify your abuse of the party.

 

[NoMorePacers]

Are you a UKIP supporter, by any chance?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Well you should have said that then rather than imply something that was never said to justify your abuse of the party.

Abuse? Really?

The thin-skin of some Kippers really does astound.

Plus your misinterpreting his post does not mean that he has to change it. Oversensitive and entitled. I'd expect nothing less, mind.

 

[Railops]

Abuse? Really?

The thin-skin of some Kippers really does astound.

Plus your misinterpreting his post does not mean that he has to change it. Oversensitive and entitled. I'd expect nothing less, mind.

The original poster said UKIP would be thick and snobbish if they decided to campaign to leave the UN.
Although they have never said they would it seems the poster would like to rubbish the party on the basis that they might in the future.

So yes it is abuse and the post was not misinterpreted at all.

 

[TheKnightWho]

The original poster said UKIP would be thick and snobbish if they decided to campaign to leave the UN.

If they did. So no, it isn't.