Should We Leave the EU?

[TheKnightWho]

What is quite concerning is what I would expect to see in the event of an "out" vote:-

1. In short order Scotland has another referendum and secedes, rejoining the EU.

2. England therefore ends up with a permanent Tory Government. (Though the split of the Scottish vote between SNP and Labour has also to some extent done that).

And Little England would be just that. Frankly, I'd leave - and I know a lot of other people who would too.

Of course, the Outers would probably throw up their middle fingers and say "good riddance", but they seem to have eschewed economics, community and common sense in favour of some fantastical ideas of 'independence' and a Britain that never really existed. It's sad, but if they want to make that bed for themselves then they can bloody well lie in it.

 

[miami]

What is quite concerning is what I would expect to see in the event of an "out" vote:-

1. In short order Scotland has another referendum and secedes, rejoining the EU.

But having lost all the benefits the UK gets (vetos, rebates, etc). With the UK also out I suspect that Ireland will be pressured to join schengen (if schengen survives), and I don't envy Northern Ireland's position even without that

2. England therefore ends up with a permanent Tory Government. (Though the split of the Scottish vote between SNP and Labour has also to some extent done that).

No it doesn't. It might mean an SNP/Labour coalition, but Labour still need to win England (and they aren't going well in Wales either)

 

[Aldaniti]

We have the terminally boring Gordon Brown later this week and if he isn't enough to turn off the waverers nothing is.

Tony Blair?

 

[Steveman]

Latest poll of polls on the EU referendum shows both sides dead level, Cameron needs far more scaremongering as it's being proved to be totally counter-productive.

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

ICM are reporting 5 consecutive online weekly polls all showing a very slight lead to Leave.

 

[miami]

That's the great British democracy that the OUTers are so proud of and so desperately want to keep - the democracy that they tell us is a model for the world.

You could argue that it's worse than that really. The tories has always been two parties, the euroskeptics and the europhiles. The swing between the two is as little as 40 mps, or 1 million votes.
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And Little England would be just that. Frankly, I'd leave - and I know a lot of other people who would too.

A resurgence of http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-32736153 perhaps?

Thousands of people in the north of England have been using the hashtag "take us with you Scotland" to express their upset about the result of last week's general election, and Scottish nationalists are welcoming this English minority with open arms.
Last Thursday's general election was a rough one for the Labour Party in its traditional stronghold in the north of England. But further to the north, the left-leaning Scottish National Party won nearly every seat it contested. That political contrast has made some left-wing voters in places like Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield look fondly on their neighbours. Since last Thursday's election in Britain the phrase "take us with you Scotland" has been used more than 24,000 times.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

And Little England would be just that. Frankly, I'd leave - and I know a lot of other people who would too.

Living in a rather exquisitely beautiful part of Cheshire East as I do, I regard "Big Cheshire" as far more attractive a proposition than "Little England"...

Where would your leaving steps take you to? Are those fortunate residents of your new country domicile ready to greet you with the open arms of friendship and ensure a residence of the style to which you have been accustomed to in Britain will be one that will be offered to you at once?

However, it may well be a quiet restful place you seek that will harmonise well with your gentle nature that you so often reveal in your postings on this particular website. May I be so bold as to suggest the v-shaped minor island called Desolation Island which is part of the archipelago of the South Shetland Islands. In particular, Kozma Cove on the north coastal side of that island is said to be extremely restful in the months when the southern gales abate.

 

[Barn]

And Little England would be just that. Frankly, I'd leave - and I know a lot of other people who would too.

Of course, the Outers would probably throw up their middle fingers and say "good riddance", but they seem to have eschewed economics, community and common sense in favour of some fantastical ideas of 'independence' and a Britain that never really existed. It's sad, but if they want to make that bed for themselves then they can bloody well lie in it.

It must be tiring continuously carrying around this loathing for your country and those of your countrymen who disagree with you. Doesn't it wear you down? In some ways I admire your passion but I think you might benefit from stepping away from the Brexit debate for a few days and finding another way to occupy yourself. It seems as if every third post in this thread is you spluttering with some new ire and cynicism!

 

[TheKnightWho]

Living in a rather exquisitely beautiful part of Cheshire East as I do, I regard "Big Cheshire" as far more attractive a proposition than "Little England"...

Where would your leaving steps take you to? Are those fortunate residents of your new country domicile ready to greet you with the open arms of friendship and ensure a residence of the style to which you have been accustomed to in Britain will be one that will be offered to you at once?

However, it may well be a quiet restful place you seek that will harmonise well with your gentle nature that you so often reveal in your postings on this particular website. May I be so bold as to suggest the v-shaped minor island called Desolation Island which is part of the archipelago of the South Shetland Islands. In particular, Kozma Cove on the north coastal side of that island is said to be extremely restful in the months when the southern gales abate.

I think it's unwise to judge what a person is like on the internet as the same as what they are like in real life.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Latest poll of polls on the EU referendum shows both sides dead level, Cameron needs far more scaremongering as it's being proved to be totally counter-productive.

Well, based on how the polls and pollsters, with accompanied sycophantic television political nonentities, viewed the final run up to the last General Election, Cameron must be very pleased indeed.

 

[TheKnightWho]

It must be tiring continuously carrying around this loathing for your country and those of your countrymen who disagree with you. Doesn't it wear you down? In some ways I admire your passion but I think you might benefit from stepping away from the Brexit debate for a few days and finding another way to occupy yourself. It seems as if every third post in this thread is you spluttering with some new ire and cynicism!

Why do you assume that I loathe those that disagree with me, just because I am passionate about what I believe is best for this country?

I'm perfectly capable of multitasking - this thread doesn't take up a particularly large portion of my life.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I think it's unwise to judge what a person is like on the internet as the same as what they are like in real life.

I am as much the "Lord of the Manor" in real life as I often appear to be on this website. Indeed, I still await a key acting role on "The Archers".

 

[TheKnightWho]

I am as much the "Lord of the Manor" in real life as I often appear to be on this website. Indeed, I still await a key acting role on "The Archers".

Right, but what applies to you does not necessarily apply to everyone.

 

[burneside]

Latest poll of polls on the EU referendum shows both sides dead level, Cameron needs far more scaremongering as it's being proved to be totally counter-productive.

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

ICM are reporting 5 consecutive online weekly polls all showing a very slight lead to Leave.

A panellist on Question Time recently remarked that at this stage of the process Cameron should be hoping for 10 point lead in the polls, the fact it is virtually level pegging must be causing him deep anxiety, which would explain his increasingly hysterical outbursts.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I suspect another factor is that the debate has so far has to a large extent been a debate between two wings of the Conservative Party. I would speculate that means that many of the people involved in designing both campaigns may well have been heavily influenced by the Lynton Crosby style of campaigning, in which you keep throwing mud at your opponents - and if any doesn't stick, you just find another place to throw mud at them until you find somewhere that does stick. It looks to me a bit like what's happening, with these increasingly absurd-looking accusations on both sides of the debate, is that both sides are desperately throwing mud, looking for somewhere that sticks, because the politicians concerned have become so used to campaigning that way that they've virtually forgotten how to do anything differently.

 

[backontrack]

A panellist on Question Time recently remarked that at this stage of the process Cameron should be hoping for 10 point lead in the polls, the fact it is virtually level pegging must be causing him deep anxiety, which would explain his increasingly hysterical outbursts.

It appears that, for our current PM, the lowest approach there is - of mudslinging - isn't quite low enough.

And you're right, he can sometimes seem quite hysterical! He gets very flustered whenever he's asked to answer a question that he can't at PM's Qs.

 

[Railops]

Gordon Brown lavishing praise on the EU today will surely put one more nail in the Remain coffin.
There is a rock in Scotland he needs to crawl back under.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Gordon Brown lavishing praise on the EU today will surely put one more nail in the Remain coffin.
There is a rock in Scotland he needs to crawl back under.

What coffin? You're celebrating because you drew even, and the best you can come out with is a criticism of a person whose speech you clearly didn't listen to.

It's clear that the Out camp are living in an echo chamber.

 

[Harbornite]

Brown had this to say

"For 1,000 years nations and tribes of Europe were fighting to the finish and murdering and maiming each other. There is no century except this one where Europe has been at peace and nations... were not vying for supremacy," he said
But for the last 70 years since World War Two, nations now "battle with arguments and ideas" and not "with weapons and armaments".
"It is like we have not just exchanged swords for ploughshares, we have made it possible so that people never think that swords will be used again."

I would say that NATO and the Warsaw Pact had a greater part to play in the peace that the Western and Eastern Europe enjoyed in the 45 years after the Second World war ended. Nevertheless, I'm not saying this is a reason to leave the EU, we are better off in for now.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Today, Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England makes a stark warning that a successful referendum vote to leave the EU could spark another period of recession in Britain.

 

[furnessvale]

Today, Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England makes a stark warning that a successful referendum vote to leave the EU could spark another period of recession in Britain.

On the back of that statement George Osborne issued a tweet saying that interest rates could rise.

And that is meant to scare pensioners trying to exist on savings interest rates of 0.5%?

 

[Aldaniti]

Today, Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England makes a stark warning that a successful referendum vote to leave the EU could spark another period of recession in Britain.

Looking at some of Carney's past predictions about future rises in interest rates, which have still not materialised, I would be inclined to give as much weight to his forecasting ability as I would to Mystic Meg. It's just more Project Fear scaremongering..... we entered recession again in the first quarter of 2016, the third time in eight years, but not much of a song and dance was made of the fact.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36266178

 

[yorksrob]

Mr Carney gave a rather more sober assessment of the possible risks of Brexit to one of the select committee's a few weeks back. I wonder why the bank has decided to up the Tempo now rather than then.

 

[Blamethrower]

I thought that we were in recession now anyway?

I know what I trust..... predictions from the financial elite, they've served us so well in the past.

 

[Johnuk123]

The BOE governor has hardly made a forecast that has been proved correct since Osborne appointed him and half of his board.

Strange that he made no forecast whatsoever about the prospects after the general election of having each party in power which was actually far more important.

This morning Osborne is wheeling out Christine Lagarde head of the IMF which has an even worse forecasting record then the BOE.
The woman is in court later this year for not preventing a £315m fraud that she had full knowledge of in France when she was French finance minister, she could well be jailed for it.

 

[northwichcat]

Strange that he made no forecast whatsoever about the prospects after the general election of having each party in power which was actually far more important.

Didn't an independent body say the Lib Dem's financial plans were good but the Conservative and Labour party plans were incomplete so proper analysis couldn't be undertaken unless those parties published their full plans?

 

[Johnuk123]

Didn't an independent body say the Lib Dem's financial plans were good but the Conservative and Labour party plans were incomplete so proper analysis couldn't be undertaken unless those parties published their full plans?

I have no idea.

Cameron running scared from Johnson and Gove on tv really shows that he knows he would be crucified as his predictions of war, famine, and general armagedon are simply ridiculous.
You would think a bloke who was confident in his armagedon prediction would be happy to go head to head with anybody.

 

[northwichcat]

On the back of that statement George Osborne issued a tweet saying that interest rates could rise.

And that is meant to scare pensioners trying to exist on savings interest rates of 0.5%?

To be honest I don't think savings rates will change if interest rates increase. When the base rate was 5% you had to really look around to find an account that gave you more than 4.5% savings interest, now it's 0.5% you can easily find accounts which offer 1% or more which the banks must be offering as lost-leaders.
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I have no idea.

Here it is

Soumaya Keynes, research economist at the IFS and an author of the report, said: “The Conservatives have said they want to eliminate the deficit but provided next to no detail on how they would do it. They should be forthcoming on the £5 billion of largely unspecified clamp down on tax avoidance, the £10 billion of unspecified cuts to social security spending and, according to our calculations, further real cuts to ‘unprotected’ departments of around £30 billion.”

Rowena Crawford, senior research economist at the IFS and an author of the report, said: “Labour’s proposed measures might be broadly enough to meet their target for only borrowing to invest. But this would leave borrowing at £26 billion a year in today’s terms. If Labour wanted to reduce borrowing to a lower level than this, they would have to spell out more detail of how they would get there.”

...

The Liberal Democrats have been more transparent about their overall fiscal plans through to 2017–18 and are aiming for a tightening that is larger than Labour’s but smaller than the Conservatives’, at 3.9% of national income.

The SNP’s fiscal numbers imply the same reduction in borrowing over the next parliament as Labour, although the reduction in borrowing under their plans would be slower. While their plans imply a slower pace of austerity than those of the other three parties, they imply a longer period of austerity

http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/7726
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Cameron running scared from Johnson and Gove on tv really shows that he knows he would be crucified as his predictions of war, famine, and general armagedon are simply ridiculous.

Cameron was only happy to do TV debates when his was in opposition and had nothing to lose. At the 2010 general election he wanted 3 TV debates (Gordon Brown didn't really seem to want to do them), while at the 2015 one he thought 3 was too many and only wanted to do 1 which resulted in a decision to have all the opposition leaders taking part in a debate.

 

[Steveman]

The BOE governor has hardly made a forecast that has been proved correct since Osborne appointed him and half of his board.

Strange that he made no forecast whatsoever about the prospects after the general election of having each party in power which was actually far more important.

This morning Osborne is wheeling out Christine Lagarde head of the IMF which has an even worse forecasting record then the BOE.
The woman is in court later this year for not preventing a £315m fraud that she had full knowledge of in France when she was French finance minister, she could well be jailed for it.

Would this be the same woman who savaged the Greeks and told them to pay their taxes but doesn't pay a penny on her salary which is higher then the US president gets but he pays tax on his.
She's just admitted on tv that she often gets things wrong - really ?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I thought that we were in recession now anyway?

I know what I trust..... predictions from the financial elite, they've served us so well in the past.

Like it or not, people who are trained in economics and finance and work full-time in that area are the best qualified people to make these kinds of predictions. Clearly, perfect predictions do not exist, so it's hardly surprising if on occasions predictions made by people such as Mark Carney turn out not to be correct, but they are still the best we have available. Certainly, I'd trust what someone like Mark Carney says on this matter far more than I'd trust any prediction made by some politician who has no economics training but who happens to have an opinion about leaving the EU!

Didn't an independent body say the Lib Dem's financial plans were good but the Conservative and Labour party plans were incomplete so proper analysis couldn't be undertaken unless those parties published their full plans?

That is my recollection too.

 

[TheKnightWho]

I notice that Out dismiss literally everything that doesn't fit their preconceived ideas as "Project Fear".

That doesn't make for sound reasoning or good decision-making: it just shuts down discussion because they have a convenient out on anything that doesn't suit them.

It does amaze me that they're willing to dismiss the advice of all of these people because they supposedly have no idea what they're on about, yet seemingly want to entrust them even more power by leaving the EU.