Should We Leave the EU?

[furnessvale]

Mr Carney gave a rather more sober assessment of the possible risks of Brexit to one of the select committee's a few weeks back. I wonder why the bank has decided to up the Tempo now rather than then.

Quite simply, that was the allotted slot in the daily project fear campaign in the run up to referendum day!

 

[miami]

I thought that we were in recession now anyway?

No. One sector of the economy is.

we entered recession again in the first quarter of 2016, the third time in eight years, but not much of a song and dance was made of the fact.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36266178

More Brexit "Facts"

From your own link

Manufacturing and construction is proving to be a drag on the whole economy, helping slow UK economic growth from 0.6% in the last three months of 2015 to 0.4% between January and March, according to the ONS.

Economic growth of 0.4% is not a recession.

Didn't an independent body say the Lib Dem's financial plans were good but the Conservative and Labour party plans were incomplete so proper analysis couldn't be undertaken unless those parties published their full plans?

Which just goes to show the electorate don't vote on facts, but on emotions. And that's why the "leave" campaign will win.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I have no idea.

Cameron running scared from Johnson and Gove on tv really shows that he knows he would be crucified as his predictions of war, famine, and general armagedon are simply ridiculous.
You would think a bloke who was confident in his armagedon prediction would be happy to go head to head with anybody.

Now you're being disingenuous. Cameron will debate on tv - it's just that it'll be against Nigel Farage, not against Boris Johnson. There are clear political reasons why senior members of the Conservative party would not want to debate against each other on tv (reasons that have nothing to do with the EU and everything to do with the impact such a debate would likely have on stirring up divisions within the Conservative Party). As for 'ridiculous' - it's certainly no more ridiculous than Boris Johnson travelling around in a 'Brexit bus' that has a direct lie plastered in huge letters along its side.

Here's a letter from the chairman of the impartial UK Statistics Authority lambasting the out campaign for the continuing to put out the factually incorrect claim that the UK gives the EU £350M/week.

 

[Steveman]

Now you're being disingenuous. Cameron will debate on tv - it's just that it'll be against Nigel Farage,

Wrong again, no debate is taking place at all as Cameron has refused to do even one head to head, he will only answer audience questions on his own.
It is not a debate at all.

Regarding the £350m figure even when we've kindly been given some money back the net figure we pay to other countries is simply staggering. The Full Fact web site says we pay £23m a day net to other countries I would call that a lot of money.

 

[NSEFAN]

Which just goes to show the electorate don't vote on facts, but on emotions. And that's why the "leave" campaign will win.

Democracy isn't about what is factually correct, it's about the will of the people. If we are naive, hysterical and downright arrogant then we shall get the outcome we deserve. Perhaps this is why we have the government that we currently do.

 

[yorksrob]

Democracy isn't about what is factually correct, it's about the will of the people. If we are naive, hysterical and downright arrogant then we shall get the outcome we deserve. Perhaps this is why we have the government that we currently do.

I doubt the British demos will be any more hysterical and downright arrogant than the Establishment have shown themselves to be.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Wrong again, no debate is taking place at all as Cameron has refused to do even one head to head, he will only answer audience questions on his own.
It is not a debate at all.

Regarding the £350m figure even when we've kindly been given some money back the net figure we pay to other countries is simply staggering. The Full Fact web site says we pay £23m a day net to other countries I would call that a lot of money.

Have you considered the benefits through trade at all? We make far more than we put in.

Economies are not zero-sum, as the Outers seem to think.

 

[Aldaniti]

Yesterday, I attended a board meeting of a small-medium sized company based in the north west. It is the sort of company that trades ethically, sells good quality products at a fair price and has a loyal customer base, so much so that it rarely needs to advertise. The directors receive fair remuneration, they certainly don't take six or even seven figure salaries and don't pay themselves excessive dividends. The company does not rely on cheap labour and even though some roles are unskilled, staff are paid well and workforce turnover is low. The two cleaners who works evenings - and are both the lowest paid members of staff - are paid double the living wage to reflect loyalty and good service. This isn't a company that is here today, gone tomorrow, it has grown slowly over many years and has used retained profits to drive growth - not debt. It isn't perfect, but it is the sort of company model that I am proud to associate myself with.

Now, before I bore you to death all I will say is this. Every director around the table has a wealth of small/medium sized business experience, University degrees (one from Oxford) and one is a Chartered Management Accountant. Yesterday we went around the board table and discussed the possible impact of an Exit vote, and without exception the view was that whilst it was fair to suggest that there would be some short-term difficulties, a decision to leave would probably have many long-term benefits for the UK. It's just a small straw poll, and probably means little in the grand scheme of things, but it does indicate that the argument to remain in the EU is certainly not shared by every business.

 

[miami]

Regarding the £350m figure even when we've kindly been given some money back the net figure we pay to other countries is simply staggering.

Yes it's absolutely staggeringly tiny. Nigel Farage, (is he Pro EU?), tells us the figure is £170m/week, or £9b/year, or 0.5% of our GDP.

Now our exports to the EU are something like £200b a year, or 10% of our GDP.

We're gambling a lot on the hope we'll win a little.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Yesterday we went around the board table and discussed the possible impact of an Exit vote, and without exception the view was that whilst it was fair to suggest that there would be some short-term difficulties, a decision to leave would probably have many long-term benefits for the UK.

What benefits? What will a post-brexit world look like? Why won't Vote Leave tell us?

 

[Johnuk123]

Yesterday, I attended a board meeting of a small-medium sized company based in the north west. It is the sort of company that trades ethically, sells good quality products at a fair price and has a loyal customer base, so much so that it rarely needs to advertise. The directors receive fair remuneration, they certainly don't take six or even seven figure salaries and don't pay themselves excessive dividends. The company does not rely on cheap labour and even though some roles are unskilled, staff are paid well and workforce turnover is low. The two cleaners who works evenings - and are both the lowest paid members of staff - are paid double the living wage to reflect loyalty and good service. This isn't a company that is here today, gone tomorrow, it has grown slowly over many years and has used retained profits to drive growth - not debt. It isn't perfect, but it is the sort of company model that I am proud to associate myself with.

Now, before I bore you to death all I will say is this. Every director around the table has a wealth of small/medium sized business experience, University degrees (one from Oxford) and one is a Chartered Management Accountant. Yesterday we went around the board table and discussed the possible impact of an Exit vote, and without exception the view was that whilst it was fair to suggest that there would be some short-term difficulties, a decision to leave would probably have many long-term benefits for the UK. It's just a small straw poll, and probably means little in the grand scheme of things, but it does indicate that the argument to remain in the EU is certainly not shared by every business.

In 2012 the proportion of VAT-registered companies that submitted EC sales lists to the government was 4% which means 96% of VAT-registered companies do no trade with Europe.
These 96% of companies though have to obey every EU regulation on business which as any business man will tell you is massive.

 

[richa2002]

What benefits? What will a post-brexit world look like? Why won't Vote Leave tell us?

Freedom. Control of our own laws and borders. Democracy.

People fight for these things, yet you'll happily give them away in the name of debatable economic benefits, which no-one on either side of the argument can be confident of.

 

[DarloRich]

Freedom. Control of our own laws and borders. Democracy.

All of which we already have.

 

[Muttley]

What will a post-brexit world look like? Why won't Vote Leave tell us?

But you can't tell us what a post-Remain world will look like !
The top table of unelected (by the people) autocrats have already said further integration is the future, where they plan to go.
This isn't a vote of Status Quo v Leave, it's One Huge Country v Leave.

But it's somewhat irrelevant, we won't be allowed to leave, there's 3 net contributors, they won't allow one to go.

But this vote is important, if we vote to leave we will get better terms when we are eventually assimilated.

 

[Blamethrower]

All of which we already have.

I disagree.

Control of our borders? - laughable
democracy - not if all parties appear to represent exactly the same ideals and philosophies. Something that Corbyn Dallas is looking to challenge, finally.
Freedom? - again, laughable. Freedom to pick which toothpaste to use and which beverage to have each morning yes. But true freedom? ridiculous. Without laws there would be anarchy, that is definitely not freedom.

Perhaps you might want to expand on what you mean by your previous statements?

 

[DarloRich]

I disagree.

which of Freedom. Control of our own laws and borders. Democracy do you not have at present?

Freedom: Are you subject to arbitrary imprisonment? Are you subject to cruel and unusual punishments? Are you able to associate with whom you wish? Practice your religion? Express your free speech? Demonstrate, protest and disagree with the government without fear of their secret police?

Control of our laws: Parliament is sovereign. IF we vote to leave then parliament will pass a law to do that. Every law that is passed in our country is passed by parliament. A parliament we elected.

Control of our borders: We control or borders. The rules that allow the awful Eastern Europeans to come here and steal our jobs/benefits/NHS/homes/children/wives ( delete as appropriate) are the same rules that allow you freedom of movement and employment throughout Europe, are the same rules that allow you to travel across Europe with limited hindrance and are the same rules that allow vast numbers of mainly aged but terribly decent Britains to live in Spain or the Dordogne

Democracy: I seem to recall i just voted in a election for three local bodies. We have regular general elections and votes for MEP's. We will soon have a vote on whether, or not, we leave the EU. Our votes choose who runs this country. By returning the Conservatives we got a referendum on Europe.

That looks like democracy to me.

Perhaps I dreamt it all...................

 

[burneside]

But you can't tell us what a post-Remain world will look like !
The top table of unelected (by the people) autocrats have already said further integration is the future, where they plan to go.
This isn't a vote of Status Quo v Leave, it's One Huge Country v Leave.

But it's somewhat irrelevant, we won't be allowed to leave, there's 3 net contributors, they won't allow one to go.

But this vote is important, if we vote to leave we will get better terms when we are eventually assimilated.

I imagine there will be a lot of nasty surprises in store for us all, if the Remain vote prevails on June 23rd:

"Brussels presses the hold button on Brexit
European Union officials aren’t just determined to keep mum during the U.K.’s referendum campaign: They are refusing to move key legislation out of fear that they might fuel support for a Brexit.

Officials and politicians said several EU initiatives have been put on ice or pushed off the agenda in an effort to avoid stirring up controversy before the June 23referendum in Britain."

http://www.politico.eu/article/brus...button-uk-referendum-campaign-eu-legislation/

 

[miami]

But you can't tell us what a post-Remain world will look like !
The top table of unelected (by the people) autocrats have already said further integration is the future, where they plan to go.

You talking about the UK government? That's unelected by the people, and remains in power thanks to to the support of about 10% of the UK electorate.

The EU council is comprised of the heads of state of each country. If you count the UK as a "democratic" government, then that's everyone.
The EU parliament we all vote on every 5 years.

Are you arguing we should vote directly for the president? Because we don't in the UK -- the largest party does (in the present case 51% of 330 Tory MPs). Are you arguing we should vote for ministers? Because we don't in the UK -- they're appointed by the head of government (Cameron), just like the EU commission is appointed by the head of each government (Cameron).

Are you suggesting the 33,000 people working in the EU commission? They're unelected yes. So are the 53,000 people working for Lancashire's councils.

Every EU law passed is passed by a parliament we elected, and the council which is made up of the heads of governments that we elected, and not just a majority either, but a "super majority".

Who are these autocrats with the power?

 

[Barn]

Freedom: Are you subject to arbitrary imprisonment? Are you subject to cruel and unusual punishments? Are you able to associate with whom you wish? Practice your religion? Express your free speech? Demonstrate, protest and disagree with the government without fear of their secret police?

We had all of those things before the EU (and before the ECHR too).

The EU has been unhelpful if anything. You talk of arbitrary imprisonment. Look up the case of Andrew Symeou, who was arrested in the UK on an EU arrest warrant and spent a long time in a Greek jail whilst his trial was delayed and delayed, only to be released quickly thereafter when they realised it was a simple misidentification.

To think that the EU is the protector of these ideals is also misguided. You talk of free speech and demonstrations. Tell that to Bruno Kramm who was recently arrested in Germany for daring to recite a poem about President Erdogan of Turkey.

Control of our laws: Parliament is sovereign. IF we vote to leave then parliament will pass a law to do that. Every law that is passed in our country is passed by parliament. A parliament we elected.

Completely untrue. Many EU directives are enacted in this country using secondary legislation with little to no parliamentary scrutiny. Other laws (including the forthcoming replacement of the Data Protection Act 1998) are simply imposed across Europe through directly-effective EU regulations.

Control of our borders: We control or borders. The rules that allow the awful Eastern Europeans to come here and steal our jobs/benefits/NHS/homes/children/wives ( delete as appropriate) are the same rules that allow you freedom of movement and employment throughout Europe, are the same rules that allow you to travel across Europe with limited hindrance and are the same rules that allow vast numbers of mainly aged but terribly decent Britains to live in Spain or the Dordogne

Non-sequitur. The fact that other countries also do not control their borders does not mean that we control ours!

Democracy: I seem to recall i just voted in a election for three local bodies. We have regular general elections and votes for MEP's. We will soon have a vote on whether, or not, we leave the EU. Our votes choose who runs this country. By returning the Conservatives we got a referendum on Europe.

Those MEPs you mention have no power to repeal EU legislation that they do not like. That is not democracy by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[miami]

Are you subject to cruel and unusual punishments?

Ask that tomorrow at 8PM, with no Wogan to offer support.

Control of our borders

Yes, anyone who's arrived back by plane to encounter a 1 hour queue at heathrow (and thus got an airside transfer bus to T3 because they had handluggage) knows we have ridiculous border security.

 

[Steveman]

I imagine there will be a lot of nasty surprises in store for us all, if the Remain vote prevails on June 23rd:

"Brussels presses the hold button on Brexit
European Union officials aren’t just determined to keep mum during the U.K.’s referendum campaign: They are refusing to move key legislation out of fear that they might fuel support for a Brexit.

Officials and politicians said several EU initiatives have been put on ice or pushed off the agenda in an effort to avoid stirring up controversy before the June 23referendum in Britain."

http://www.politico.eu/article/brus...button-uk-referendum-campaign-eu-legislation/

I mentioned this on the 20th of April -

They said on the tv last week that the EU parliament has held back on 70-80% of legislation recently which will all be bought forward as soon as the referendum is over.
The place is apparently just ticking over and is on hold for a deluge of legislation to be introduced after June 23rd.

When you see they want another 20 billion Euros you can see why it's all being kept quiet until the 24th of June.

 

[miami]

We had all of those things before the EU (and before the ECHR too).

Yeah. What we should do is write down a list of all the freedoms that we have, and then go to other countries and make them sign up to the same freedoms, rather than this EU stuff like the ECHR.

The EU has been unhelpful if anything. You talk of arbitrary imprisonment. Look up the case of Andrew Symeou, who was arrested in the UK on an EU arrest warrant and spent a long time in a Greek jail whilst his trial was delayed and delayed, only to be released quickly thereafter when they realised it was a simple misidentification.

Didn't our democratically elected government opt out of the EAW? Or did we decide not to opt out. Either way I'm not sure how the EU would help or hinder in that vote.

Completely untrue. Many EU directives are enacted in this country using secondary legislation with little to no parliamentary scrutiny.

You mean like Statutory instruments? I thought directives were instructions to soverign parliaments to enact law. Once which can be ignored if the parliament is bribed by big media enough.

Other laws (including the forthcoming replacement of the Data Protection Act 1998) are simply imposed across Europe through directly-effective EU regulations.

I believe the Data Protection Act was implementation of the EU Data Protection Directive. It will be replaced by the General Data Protection Regulation which was approved by the EU parliament and the EU council in 2014, so not sure how "simply imposed" works, unless you think that the Data Protection act was also "simply imposed" by Tony Blair.

As a regulation it means that it gets passed directly into law, but our democratically elected MEPs already approved it on April 14th. I believe it was also approved by the EU council, including David Cameron.

Those MEPs you mention have no power to repeal EU legislation that they do not like. That is not democracy by any stretch of the imagination.

Well they have power not to pass it. Do MPs have the ability to repeal legislation, or does that require the government to do it? I believe the EU parliament can have a vote of no confidence in the EU commission, albeit with 66% (rather than 55% in the UK) support.

 

[Barn]

You mean like Statutory instruments? I thought directives were instructions to soverign parliaments to enact law.

Yes, statutory instruments made under the European Communities Act 1972. About 6000 of these are listed on Westlaw, and that list is probably not exhaustive. It is very rare for directives to be implemented by primary legislation in the UK with full parliamentary scrutiny.

I believe the Data Protection Act was implementation of the EU Data Protection Directive. It will be replaced by the General Data Protection Regulation which was approved by the EU parliament and the EU council in 2014, so not sure how "simply imposed" works, unless you think that the Data Protection act was also "simply imposed" by Tony Blair.

I'm not sure of the point you're making. I was responding to DarloRich's point that "all legislation in the UK has been passed by our parliament". A regulation has not been passed (or even really considered) by our parliament.

The Data Protection Act 1998 was an implementation of a directive - one of the few that was implemented using primary legislation. It wasn't "simply imposed" in the same way as the new regulation will be, although of course the UK did not have much choice over whether (or even how) it was implemented.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Well they have power not to pass it. Do MPs have the ability to repeal legislation, or does that require the government to do it? I believe the EU parliament can have a vote of no confidence in the EU commission, albeit with 66% (rather than 55% in the UK) support.

Technically yes, MPs do have the power to repeal legislation themselves, by means of private members' bills. There are more of these than you might imagine.

However, more relevant is the soft power that MPs have to force the Goverment to act: by rebelling on votes, by calling for leadership challenges, by resigning from ministerial posts, by risking the Government appearing dysfunctional, etc. Look at how universal academy plans were overturned by soft power from backbench Conservatives. The Commission doesn't really care about its own popularity. Why should it?

 

[Domh245]

I see that Boris has brought Godwin's law straight into the real world

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36295208

 

[backontrack]

I see that Boris has brought Godwin's law straight into the real world

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36295208

If Boris is linked to anything, it's Sod's Law.

 

[northwichcat]

I see that Boris has brought Godwin's law straight into the real world

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36295208

Corbyn, this morning on TV, said Johnson is not the best historian in the Conservative Party.

 

[Altfish]

Well it is getting clearer which way to vote...

Boris, Gove, Trump and Putin all say Brexit, so we have to stay in.

 

[meridian2]

Well I have to say I'm disappointed in Boris Johnson; he's managed to out himself and make himself look a complete fool, just as Farage did prior to the General Election last year.

Inclined to say: 'can I change my mind?' but I still believe that the case for the 'Out' campaign is more credible than remaining 'IN'.

 

[Aldaniti]

Meanwhile, Tony Blair, who thought that war in Iraq would be a jolly good idea, and is now busy collecting large amounts of currency from dubious characters across the globe, most recently several million pounds from the Kazakhstan government and its autocratic president Nursultan Nazarbayev, has found time to make pronouncements that it would be a jolly good idea for Britain to remain.....

 

[TheKnightWho]

Meanwhile, Tony Blair, who thought that war in Iraq would be a jolly good idea, and is now busy collecting large amounts of currency from dubious characters across the globe, most recently several million pounds from the Kazakhstan government and its autocratic president Nursultan Nazarbayev, has found time to make pronouncements that it would be a jolly good idea for Britain to remain.....

You'd take Putin over Blair?

Given the Out camp's propensity for ridiculous comparisons today, I'm not all that surprised to be honest.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Meanwhile, Tony Blair, who thought that war in Iraq would be a jolly good idea, and is now busy collecting large amounts of currency from dubious characters across the globe, most recently several million pounds from the Kazakhstan government and its autocratic president Nursultan Nazarbayev, has found time to make pronouncements that it would be a jolly good idea for Britain to remain.....

The fact that Tony Blair appears to have had ethically dubious business dealings since he left Westminster is almost certainly bad, and a poor reflection on his business ethics. However, it doesn't seem particularly relevant to his views on the EU.