Should We Leave the EU?

[miami]

If it was the case that leaving the EU would mean automatically joining the Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein club, then there wouldn't be that much of an issue either way. But the "outers" don't want that. They see that Norway has to let in immigrants from eastern Europe, for example.

Norway also funds projects in Eastern Europe via the Norway and EEA grants, to the tune of about €70 per person, which for the UK is about £3.5 billion per year.

So we need to meet EU regulation to sell to the EU, we need to fund the poorer EU countries, the EU may impose schengen on us. In Norway, I believe they can kick out jobless EU people after a year, if they can find them. Doesn't seem to do them much god if the goal is to keep eastern europeans out.

The five largest immigrant groups in Norway are in turn Polish, Swedish, Somali, Lithuanian and Pakistani....at the beginning of 2015, {total number of immigrants} had risen to 815,000 persons, (or 15.6 per cent of the population.

Norways immigration per year is 1 immigrant per 125. The UKs is 1 per 170, so Norway has more immigrants per capital than the UK.

 

[furnessvale]

Interesting discussion just now on BBC2 Daily Politics.

Apparently every year, twice as many EU nationals apply for a UK National Insurance number as official figures show have entered the country.

As the NI numbers are a known quantity, whereas the official immigration figures are based on random spot surveys, I think I know which are more believable.

I'll not be holding my breath that the government will be publicising the true figure BEFORE the referendum.

 

[Steveman]

Interesting discussion just now on BBC2 Daily Politics.

Apparently every year, twice as many EU nationals apply for a UK National Insurance number as official figures show have entered the country.

As the NI numbers are a known quantity, whereas the official immigration figures are based on random spot surveys, I think I know which are more believable.

I'll not be holding my breath that the government will be publicising the true figure BEFORE the referendum.

I saw that and Andrew Neil looked visibly shocked when the answer from the Home Office was - "We cannot provide actual immigration figures as it will affect David Cameron's EU negotiations"

What a revelation and as was said this puts our immigration for the last 5 years at 2.5m not 1m.

This is going to be big I think.

 

[miami]

So if we don't know how many EU immigrants are in the country, how are we going to stop them once we leave the EU?

 

[furnessvale]

So if we don't know how many EU immigrants are in the country, how are we going to stop them once we leave the EU?

But we do know, or rather the government does. NI figures tell them.

They just haven't told us, and won't until after June.

 

[Tetchytyke]

But we do know, or rather the government does. NI figures tell them.

Applications for NINOs doesn't always tell the full story. They're a useful indicator, among others, but not everyone who migrates here needs a NINO and not everyone with a NINO is migrating here.

 

[Busaholic]

Having previously reported car reg no. N1 EEC, I've seen it again outside the same house with D1 EEC behind it, so now I'm in no doubt that they are meant to be sending a statement. Perhaps Suzanne Evans and Neil Hamilton were meeting there to plot revenge on Farrago.

 

[furnessvale]

Applications for NINOs doesn't always tell the full story. They're a useful indicator, among others, but not everyone who migrates here needs a NINO and not everyone with a NINO is migrating here.

Indeed, but a discrepancy of 2.5 to 1 between the two stats tells me something is drastically wrong.

 

[miami]

Indeed, but a discrepancy of 2.5 to 1 between the two stats tells me something is drastically wrong.

Quite possibly so. How will leaving the EU help?

 

[radamfi]

If immigration restrictions are put in place for EU citizens, they will simply be replaced by increased immigration from outside the EU. Governments talk about wanting to cut immigration, but in reality that is just rhetoric. They know immigration is necessary to tackle the problems caused by an ageing population.

I wonder if the "outers" would rather have white Christians from eastern Europe or non-Christians from elsewhere?

 

[RichmondCommu]

I wonder if the "outers" would rather have white Christians from eastern Europe or non-Christians from elsewhere?

Much of the "out" argument is down to race in my opinion which essentially means that immigrants are the cause of all the problems in society regardless of either the colour of their skin or their religion.

 

[Steveman]

Much of the "out" argument is down to race in my opinion which essentially means that immigrants are the cause of all the problems in society regardless of either the colour of their skin or their religion.

Your opinion thankfully is not shared by most people though. To label all Outers as racists because they know uncontrolled mass EU immigration cannot possibly be sustained long term is very wrong.

 

[miami]

Your opinion thankfully is not shared by most people though. To label all Outers as racists because they know uncontrolled mass EU immigration cannot possibly be sustained long term is very wrong.

Why can it not be sustained?

In fact how can it not be not sustained? We really don't want to go down the road of Japan

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-35666274

New census figures in Japan show the population has shrunk by nearly one million in the past five years, in the first decline registered since 1920.
As of October last year the country has 127.1 million people, 0.7% fewer than in the last census.
Demographers have long predicted a drop, citing Japan's falling birth rate and a lack of immigration.
The rapidly ageing population has contributed to a stagnating economy and worries of increasing health costs.

 

[yorksrob]

Hmm. Leaving immigration aside, I can't help thinking that relying on never-ending population growth to sustain economic prosperity is something akin to an environmental pyramid scheme.

I can't help thinking that if humanity is to survive, it will have to learn to survive with large elderly populations (assuming we're not subjected to the type of brutal population contraction expected by Malthus).

 

[RichmondCommu]

Your opinion thankfully is not shared by most people though. To label all Outers as racists because they know uncontrolled mass EU immigration cannot possibly be sustained long term is very wrong.

I didn't all say all outers were racist but lets face facts many of them are. Many of them are quite happy to put our future economic prosperity at risk to ensure that we have a nation of white Anglo Saxons.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I can't help thinking that if humanity is to survive, it will have to learn to survive with large elderly populations (assuming we're not subjected to the type of brutal population contraction expected by Malthus).

I'm 49 and don't intend to work after I reach 55. My wife is 46 and feels the same and we're not alone. So what happens then?

 

[yorksrob]

I'm 49 and don't intend to work after I reach 55. My wife is 46 and feels the same and we're not alone. So what happens then?

You prove my point.

Having an ever expanding population is not a sustainable way to deal with an increasingly elderly population.

Supposing you have three children. Do we have to have another round of population expansion to support them when they retire at 55 ?

How long does it go on for ?

That's not to say that people shouldn't retire at 55 - infact with increasing technological and agricultural advancement it should be possible for people to retire at 55 and live longer, yet somehow it never actually works out like that.

That's something the western/capitalist system needs to solve.

 

[RichmondCommu]

You prove my point.

Having an ever expanding population is not a sustainable way to deal with an increasingly elderly population.

Supposing you have three children. Do we have to have another round of population expansion to support them when they retire at 55 ?

How long does it go on for ?

That's not to say that people shouldn't retire at 55 - infact with increasing technological and agricultural advancement it should be possible for people to retire at 55 and live longer, yet somehow it never actually works out like that.

That's something the western/capitalist system needs to solve.

So given that we have an ageing population and a seemingly increasing number of childless couples / single people who is going to take up the slack when my wife and I retire?

 

[yorksrob]

So given that we have an ageing population and a seemingly increasing number of childless couples / single people who is going to take up the slack when my wife and I retire?

We'll have to find a way to run an economy with more people who aren't economically productive.

Endless population growth is not an answer. We'll have to work it out sooner or later.

 

[RichmondCommu]

We'll have to find a way to run an economy with more people who aren't economically productive.

Endless population growth is not an answer. We'll have to work it out sooner or later.

However machines cannot do everything! Are you suggesting that we adopt the old Chinese model of one child per couple?

 

[yorksrob]

However machines cannot do everything! Are you suggesting that we adopt the old Chinese model of one child per couple?

No, however, I don't think we should see population growth as an end in itself or a solution to our economic challenges.

I do think that at some stage, the world population is going to have to stop churning out ever increasing numbers of people. Organised religion might not like it but there we are.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Of course, experience in Japan and much of western Europe suggests that it isn't inevitable that humanity should procreate into oblivion. We are, perhaps, self-regulating afterall. But it says everything about the failure of our economic system that this manifests itself as a crisis, rather than a step forward.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Endless population growth is not an answer. We'll have to work it out sooner or later.

China, after making a decision quite some time ago on the restriction of population growth, has now made steps in the opposite direction.

They have a far higher numerical base than has Britain.

 

[Oswyntail]

I know this is getting way Off Topic, but one critical way we will have to reform is in our attitude towards Death. It is inevitable, but we still treat it as an avertable evil. We consider it a blessing to spend hundreds of thousands on a treatment that will extend life by a few months, rather than hundreds on palliative care. I am not suggesting euthanasia at 21. But just because we have the ability to extend life (and expand an ageing, infirm population) does not mean we should. And yes, that applies to me as I plough through my 60s starting my days with a small pharmacy for breakfast.

 

[furnessvale]

However machines cannot do everything! Are you suggesting that we adopt the old Chinese model of one child per couple?

We could always adopt the Eskimo method of leaving grannie outside the igloo on a cold night.

 

[Domh245]

So, The G20's finance ministers have said that Brexit would be a shock for the global economy.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35677385

 

[deltic]

No, however, I don't think we should see population growth as an end in itself or a solution to our economic challenges.

I do think that at some stage, the world population is going to have to stop churning out ever increasing numbers of people. Organised religion might not like it but there we are.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Of course, experience in Japan and much of western Europe suggests that it isn't inevitable that humanity should procreate into oblivion. We are, perhaps, self-regulating afterall. But it says everything about the failure of our economic system that this manifests itself as a crisis, rather than a step forward.

Of the 224 countries and territories listed by the CIA World Fact Book - 118 have a fertility rate less than the population replacement rate which will in due course lead to falling populations - they include major countries such as Brazil and Iran so not just a European or Japanese phenomena.

 

[furnessvale]

So, The G20's finance ministers have said that Brexit would be a shock for the global economy.

Isn't one of those ministers George Osborne?

I've heard rather disparaging remarks about his financial prowess on other matters.

Is it OK to trust him on this one?

 

[Domh245]

Isn't one of those ministers George Osborne?

I've heard rather disparaging remarks about his financial prowess on other matters.

Is it OK to trust him on this one?

He is, but he wasn't the one raising the issue. If you think that all of the G20 finance ministers are financially inept, then I'm not going to stop you from thinking that, but the odds would be rather slim!

A senior official from the Treasury told the BBC the chancellor's US counterpart had raised the issue during the meeting, as did others, including senior Chinese officials and Ms Lagarde.

US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew later urged UK voters to "consider the impact" of voting to leave, and said the White House believed it was in the UK's "national security interests" to remain in the union.

CBI director general Carolyn Fairbairn described the potential consequences of the UK leaving the EU as an "evident risk".

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

I know this is getting way Off Topic, but one critical way we will have to reform is in our attitude towards Death. It is inevitable, but we still treat it as an avertable evil. We consider it a blessing to spend hundreds of thousands on a treatment that will extend life by a few months, rather than hundreds on palliative care. I am not suggesting euthanasia at 21. But just because we have the ability to extend life (and expand an ageing, infirm population) does not mean we should. And yes, that applies to me as I plough through my 60s starting my days with a small pharmacy for breakfast.

Hmm. you've touched on an almost taboo subject there, but it does - sort of - echo my own views. I do get a kind of uncomfortable feeling when I read or hear of the vast amount spent on keeping people alive when their actual quality of life might be incredibly diminished...and of course one of the many reasons why that may be so is that the care 'industry' relies heavily on Europeans who undertake the work at miserly rates.

 

[yorksrob]

China, after making a decision quite some time ago on the restriction of population growth, has now made steps in the opposite direction.

They have a far higher numerical base than has Britain.

Indeed they have.

Perhaps they have embraced personal freedom. Alternatively, perhaps they have jumped on the bandwagon that population growth means economic growth, hence must be good.

Maybe China is at the point where where population growth is unlikely to explode anyway.

It still doesn't alter my belief that population growth isn't a panacea for solving our demographic problem of an ageing population, so whilst there are many benefits to immigration, solving the demographic problem of an ageing population isn't one of them - at least in the long term because those immigrants will become part of the ageing population themselves.

 

[NSEFAN]

Our economic system requires that we have a large working population to support those who aren't working (for whatever reason). Immigration of working-age people works out very well for us overall because those people come to country ready to work "out of the box" (i.e. they don't need to spend 18+ years being raised and costing the taxpayer money). My understanding of anti-immigration views is that there's plenty of unemployed people in this country who could work instead, so why should we import people? Realistically, I don't think that you could find a lot of like-for-like replacements for many jobs where particular qualifications, experience and work ethic are needed. The fact this situation exists is not pleasant, and has probably been caused in part by no plan to transition those who once did mining and metal bashing into more modern jobs. Nonetheless it seems to be the way things have gone and we can only move forward.

I think that if we wanted to go "fortress Britain", we'd have to make some changes to how see employment. If we want to keep up our current economic model, then we would have to inject a huge amount of money and resources into getting people off the dole, into employment and doing work. I don't have any idea how much this would cost, so I cannot say if it's a realistic option, although I'm sure it would be a vote winner in areas suffering from high unemployment. Alternatively, we accept that technology is removing the need for employment in the traditional sense, and instead push for automation and find new things for people to do. Provided everyone can be fed and housed this isn't necessarily impossible, although it would probably require a far more socialist culture than ours in order to work well. In any case, I don't think we could just slam the doors shut and pretend everything will be okay and as it was before.

My view is that if the population vote "in", then not much will change. There will be no political will to get people off the dole and into work whilst importing workers is cheaper (at least in the short term). If the population vote "out", not much will change either, as our way of life is dependent on trade agreements and immigration. We might see slightly reduced immigration, but I suspect that a lot will still be permitted in order to support our economic system.