Should we go back into lockdown at this point?

[yorksrob]

I think there needs to be direct financial support for any hospitality businesses forced to close. That should concentrate any Government minds that might be wavering towards a long and winding lockdown.

 

[Yew]

No, but if the test hadn't been carried out and they'd gone round their Nan's?

(Grandparents of schoolkids tend to have quite a few more years left in them - it's not like those in a home for whom it might be welcome relief)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Sep 2020 ==

I feel like it doesn't take a massive leap of logic to maybe stay away from Grandma if your school has been closed due to COVID cases?

I'd also suggest that a large number of grandparents of school age children are young enough to be resilient. Though the later ages of middle class families could prove an issue.

 

[najaB]

You mean when we started to re-open businesses, which wasn't needed in Sweden because they didn't have wholesale shutdowns of the hospitality businesses?

No, airborne infections tend to drop off in the summer as people spend more time outdoors and increase again as summer ends.

 

[Bantamzen]

No, airborne infections tend to drop off in the summer as people spend more time outdoors and increase again as summer ends.

So then at the very worst they will see infection rates similar to other countries, but without the lockdowns?

 

[najaB]

So then at the very worst they will see infection rates similar to other countries, but without the lockdowns?

They already have a the third highest per-capita case rate in Europe (ignoring microstates), so it remains to be seen what happens.

It's worth noting though that their peak positive rate was around 5% of tests where ours was as high as 25% when the national lockdown was imposed, so it's not easy to draw direct comparisons between the responses here and there.

 

[big_rig]

Neil Ferguson has now decreed that national lockdown is now required, as not doing so will lead to an unspecified number of hospitalisations and an unspecified number of deaths (strange he didn't go with 250,000?).

Unfortunately I think this is basically inevitable now. Completely pointless and destructive but the 'experts' have spoken. I'm going to go get a haircut and go to the dentist while I still can! If anybody believes it will only be for two weeks and that it'll be limited to what restrictions there are in some places already I've got a bridge to sell them sadly.

England-wide Covid lockdown needed 'sooner rather than later', says former adviser

Prof Neil Ferguson says new rules needed to minimise deaths in ‘perfect storm’ second wave

www.theguardian.com

Ferguson, who quit Sage in May after flouting the rules by receiving visits from his lover at his home, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the current levels of infection are on a par with those in late February.

He said: “If we leave it another two to four weeks we will be back at levels we were seeing more like mid-March. That’s clearly going to cause deaths, because people will be hospitalised. I think some additional measures are likely to be needed sooner rather than later.”

 

[adc82140]

Ignoring the Guardian hand wringing, he has actually said that there need to be restrictions, not a full scale March style lockdown with business closures and travel restrictions etc. More media obsession with the "lockdown" word.

 

[yorkie]

He's a discredited authoritarian who is desperate for attention. He should be ignored.

Bizarrely he says:

“But I think actually what we want is to have a set of sustainable measures through until we have a vaccine, not go through this cycle again.”

Well, that's what some people said all along! It's also the strategy Sweden adopted right from the start. But we didn't do that, because of him!

This interview with Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, is very scathing of Ferguson, and rightly so:

(go to about the 6 minute mark)

I think [the imperial model] is not very good

The assumptions are heavily criticised....

The paper was never published scientifically; it was not peer reviewed...

(and there's more!)

Ferguson is incompetent, as well as a disgrace.

 

[DelayRepay]

If you test negative then that's that. You dont need to continue to isolate.

Not always. The Test and Trace website says (for people who have had contact with a confirmed case):

What to do when you get your test result
If you test negative (the test did not find coronavirus):

• keep self-isolating for the rest of the 14 days from when you were last in contact with the person who has coronavirus – as you could get symptoms after being tested

 

[DB]

Not always. The Test and Trace website says (for people who have had contact with a confirmed case):

So what's the point of the test? May as well not bother with it if you have to stay at home for 14 days regardless.

 

[Domh245]

So what's the point of the test? May as well not bother with it if you have to stay at home for 14 days regardless.

Strictly speaking unless you've started to have symptoms you shouldn't have a test. If you're symptomatic and the test comes back negative, there's a non-zero chance that the test didn't pick up enough virus material to return a positive (especially if it was a home test) or there was some other issue. Either way, if you've got a high temperature, continuous cough or one of the other symptoms it's likely that you won't feel able to leave the house, and arguably you shouldn't be leaving either, in much the same way that if you've got a nasty cold you shouldn't be going into work

 

[yorkie]

This does make a mockery of any suggestions that mass testing could be a way to eliminate or heavily suppress the virus!

 

[Domh245]

This does make a mockery of any suggestions that mass testing could be a way to eliminate or heavily suppress the virus!

Not really, it's still a 'potential' strategy, but it does involve basically interning most of the population for at least 14 days

 

[yorkie]

Not really, it's still a 'potential' strategy, but it does involve basically interning most of the population for at least 14 days

Yes, really. See also: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/covid-exit-strategies.209286/ And what's to stop people being told to isolate for multiple 14 day periods?

 

[najaB]

This does make a mockery of any suggestions that mass testing could be a way to eliminate or heavily suppress the virus!

Not really. If you have no symptoms at all and a negative test then you're into "advisable but not necessary to isolate" territory. TBH, it's advisable to try and avoid unnecessary contact even if you don't have any reason to think you might have been exposed.

 

[yorkie]

How long do you think we can live like that for?

How do you define "try and avoid unnecessary contact"?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

How do you define "try and avoid unnecessary contact"?

I don't think you can have a dictionary definition. Sadly, it's the "common sense" argument but we all know that's not common.

Would unnecessary contact being going into work if you can't work from home. Of course not. Would unnecessary contact be travelling by coach from the Welsh Valleys to Doncaster Races. I would think so.

In terms of public transport, if you need to travel to/from work and have no other means of safe transport, then of course you should travel. If it's a case of travelling from Kent to Merseyside to travel on the last 508s, then I'd find it hard to argue that's necessary.

 

[Yew]

I don't think you can have a dictionary definition. Sadly, it's the "common sense" argument but we all know that's not common.

Would unnecessary contact being going into work if you can't work from home. Of course not. Would unnecessary contact be travelling by coach from the Welsh Valleys to Doncaster Races. I would think so.

In terms of public transport, if you need to travel to/from work and have no other means of safe transport, then of course you should travel. If it's a case of travelling from Kent to Merseyside to travel on the last 508s, then I'd find it hard to argue that's necessary.

Social interactions and leisure activities are important for mental health, given that the law ensures parity of mental and physical health, I think such activities are justifyable.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Social interactions and leisure activities are important for mental health, given that the law ensures parity of mental and physical health, I think such activities are justifyable.

If you want to improve your mental health, go for a walk or a cycle. Going on a coach trip to Doncaster Races and stopping off at a range of pubs may not have contravened advice but obviously foolhardy.

 

[Yew]

If you want to improve your mental health, go for a walk or a cycle.

That's exactly the "mental health is easy" sort of attidute that we need to get rid of. Next you'll be saying that "I was sad once and I got over it" and that all people suffering from depression and just being melodramatic.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

That's exactly the "mental health is easy" sort of attidute that we need to get rid of. Next you'll be saying that "I was sad once and I got over it" and that all people suffering from depression and just being melodramatic.

As someone who has had CBT for depression, I wouldn't say that. The benefits of physical exercise and fresh air are well documented.

Just in case you don't know, CBT is Cognitive Behavioural Therapy that aims to rationalise your thoughts and put things into some form of perspective so they don't assume overwhelming importance. It's about simple steps...

 

[Ianno87]

As someone who has had CBT for depression, I wouldn't say that. The benefits of physical exercise and fresh air are well documented.

But no replacement for doing what you love or face-to-face human interaction.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

But no replacement for doing what you love or face-to-face human interaction.

If you love horses, it's an enshrined right to travel to Doncaster Races? Or to travel from Kent to Merseyside to travel on a 508 cos you love EMUs?

It's not the same as not being able to see your family.

 

[Yew]

As someone who has had CBT for depression, I wouldn't say that. The benefits of physical exercise and fresh air are well documented.

Just in case you don't know, CBT is Cognitive Behavioural Therapy that aims to rationalise your thoughts and put things into some form of perspective so they don't assume overwhelming importance. It's about simple steps...

Why didn't you just go for a walk?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Why didn't you just go for a walk?

I began running and did my first half marathon the following year. I went to my GP initially and he advised physical exercise and referred me for CBT.

Your compassion is noted.

 

[takno]

Just in case you don't know, CBT is Cognitive Behavioural Therapy that aims to rationalise your thoughts and put things into some form of perspective so they don't assume overwhelming importance. It's about simple steps...

It's about a 50% success rate, and typically lower when it's delivered online. It's a valuable tool which helps a proportion of people, but when it doesn't work it doesn't work. Depression and other mental health issues do not suit a one-size-fits-all response. CBT is of strictly limited help to people being rapidly driven into crisis by very real very large problems in their life, who often can't access it anyway.

 

[Yew]

It's not the same as not being able to see your family.

You might value seeing your family over friends or other activities, but that's not always the case for everyone.

 

[Ianno87]

If you love horses, it's an enshrined right to travel to Doncaster Races? Or to travel from Kent to Merseyside to travel on a 508 cos you love EMUs?

It's not the same as not being able to see your family.

I didn't say it was a right to do those things.

I said that peoples' mental health will suffer from not being able to do them.

 

[C J Snarzell]

There does seem to be much scaremongering in the tabloids. I cannot see BJ ordering a second full national lockdown but he will implement some strong measures.

I am kind of anticipating a night time curfew on socialising to deter the partying atmosphere of people at weekends and students away from home for the first time.

They have implemented this in Bolton. My friend lives in the town and he said people are still free to go out after 10pm but as the pubs, bars and 24 hour mini-markets are closed there is less insentive to venture out and congregate.

Shift workers and unaffected by the curfew unless of course they want a brew from McDonald's at 3am.

CJ

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

It's about a 50% success rate, and typically lower when it's delivered online. It's a valuable tool which helps a proportion of people, but when it doesn't work it doesn't work. Depression and other mental health issues do not suit a one-size-fits-all response. CBT is of strictly limited help to people being rapidly driven into crisis by very real very large problems in their life, who often can't access it anyway.

Indeed but at a lower level, it’s effective. If you’ve issues that require more than CBT, it’s unlikely a prescription of a jolly to Doncaster Races is the option.

Just didn’t take kindly to a statement about my attitude to mental health when I’ve been “there” though I appreciate that “there” is different for many people. It wasn’t virtual and there were about 12 people who all had different circumstances.