Should overcrowding be the norm? NO!!!

[Moonshot]

The late evening services are often the most crowded of all on local routes. Unfortunately, as local passengers don‘t tend to buy train specific tickets, government tends to believe these trains are carting around fresh air and totally underestimate demand at this time of night.

My understanding is on a daily basis , there are 3 million journeys made UK wide. There are 6 million seats provided.

 

[bb21]

Overcrowding on off peak trains is a bit of an oddity when you consider that TOCS use train specific advance tickets to fill up otherwise empty seats. Clearly the value of a " walk on " service is still very attractive...

The problem with train-specific Advance tickets is that they are serving more than their original intended purposes. Although it cannot be confirmed, some TOCs appear to be using Advance fares as an informal method for increasing revenue compared to selling walk-on fares only on crowded trains partly because they may receive very little of the ORCATS revenue but get to keep all of the Advance fares income.

 

[Moonshot]

The problem with train-specific Advance tickets is that they are serving more than their original intended purposes. Although it cannot be confirmed, some TOCs appear to be using Advance fares as an informal method for increasing revenue compared to selling walk-on fares only on crowded trains partly because they may receive very little of the ORCATS revenue but get to keep all of the Advance fares income.

Which would just further the argument for TOCS to be taking the revenue risk.

If I look at the developing corporate structures of Network Rail and the TOC alliances, it looks to me as if we will see regional companies responsible for both the infrastructure and the operations. Which makes it far easier to target grant money from the taxpayer, and at the same time apportion revenue irrespective of what type of ticket generated it....

 

[yorksrob]

My understanding is on a daily basis , there are 3 million journeys made UK wide. There are 6 million seats provided.

Perhaps, but you won't find any of the three million spare seats on late evening services out of Leeds !

Also, does a train necessarily need to have 100% occupancy to break even ? I get the impression that for longer distance electric services, this may not be the case.

 

[Moonshot]

Perhaps, but you won't find any of the three million spare seats on late evening services out of Leeds !

Also, does a train necessarily need to have 100% occupancy to break even ? I get the impression that for longer distance electric services, this may not be the case.

Indeed.....and I could probably say the same for Manchester as well....does make you wonder just how much ticketless travel there is. A blitz on Victoria Station by revenue protect has seen official figures for Victoria rise dramatically.....

Doesnt need 100% occupancy , as Virgin have shown !!!

 

[tbtc]

Perhaps, but you won't find any of the three million spare seats on late evening services out of Leeds !

The problem with this is that the demand for the "last train home" is always going to be fairly significant when compared to the previous few - buses are similarly empty around 21:00/ 22:00 at night then really busy once the pubs/ cinemas etc are chucking out an hour later.

Do you keep extra capacity sat around around for that one busy final train of the night? Or run longer trains all evening, that will mean far too much capacity at 20:00/ 21:00/ 22:00?

Also, does a train necessarily need to have 100% occupancy to break even ? I get the impression that for longer distance electric services, this may not be the case.

I'd be fascinated to know the answer.

I suspect that a 30m Pacer needs to be pretty highly occupied all day long to justify its running costs (e.g. it costs the same in staffing costs for a Pacer with just over a hundred seats as it costs for a five/ ten coach train - longer trains will cost more in fuel/ track access charges etc, but staffing is a fairly highcost area).

Whereas a five/ ten coach train could probably get away with a much lower number of passengers on average (150? 200?) and break even?

Certainly, the TOCs that are close to breaking even (or paying a subsidy) are the ones running the longest trains, whereas the biggest subsidies* are for the TOCs operating the shortest trains (W&B, Northern etc), which suggests that its very hard to make money running shorter trains.

* - apart from the special case of ScotRail with its heavily subsidised fares/ disproportionately young stock etc
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Indeed.....and I could probably say the same for Manchester as well....does make you wonder just how much ticketless travel there is. A blitz on Victoria Station by revenue protect has seen official figures for Victoria rise dramatically.....

Doesnt need 100% occupancy , as Virgin have shown !!!

A lot of criticism was aimed at Virgin for their seat average occupancy of 35% (IIRC?), but I wonder what the average occupancy at other TOCs would be?

 

[yorksrob]

The problem with this is that the demand for the "last train home" is always going to be fairly significant when compared to the previous few - buses are similarly empty around 21:00/ 22:00 at night then really busy once the pubs/ cinemas etc are chucking out an hour later.

Do you keep extra capacity sat around around for that one busy final train of the night? Or run longer trains all evening, that will mean far too much capacity at 20:00/ 21:00/ 22:00?

A couple of weeks ago, knowing that the last train home (22:37) was going to be rammed, I decided to catch the 21:37, thinking it might be nice and quiet. Unfortunately, that one turned out to be rammed as well ! I end up going home at various times of evening and I've noticed that loadings throughout the evening are becoming more consistent.

 

[HowardGWR]

A gallon of petrol/diesel gets you quite far these days though.

What's a gallon? I only cost my travel in price per litre, that being the only price that one knows. I find this 'imperial' way of thinking most strange. How many decades have we been doing it this way?
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1.4 billion rail journeys a year raises £7 billion for the industry, which is just about £5 per journey. The perception is that rail is expensive, but the reality is the average journey price is cheaper than a gallon of petrol. .

Apart from the reference to a gallon (? what does that cost?) that is an impressive piece of data. Fares need to go up on seasons and such like, clearly.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Could a major part in the increased rail users be a South East thing?

As London has grown in population the number of jobs in London has also grown.

It is a double multiply effect as this leads to even more companies being London-centric.

Therefore more rail commuters who have no choice but to continue using trains no matter what the conditions.

On the matter of advance fares being used to engineer travellers on different trains there is only so far it can work.

I notice the post 9.30am trains in to London are packed and far worse than the 9.15am.

However if you are having a day out how far is reasonable to engineer these peoples habits? If you are making a journey out to London for the day do you really want to get there after 11am and have to leave at three?

 

[455driver]

What's a gallon?

1 English gallon is 4.546 euromeasurements!

 

[Moonshot]

What's a gallon? I only cost my travel in price per litre, that being the only price that one knows. I find this 'imperial' way of thinking most strange. How many decades have we been doing it this way?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Apart from the reference to a gallon (? what does that cost?) that is an impressive piece of data. Fares need to go up on seasons and such like, clearly.

£7 a gallon I reckon !!

Fares going up on seasons just goes back to a point I ve made several times, and that is regulating fares distorts the pricing structure. It is impossible to make a rational investment decision, when you dont actually have a fair view on what the market will pay for the results of that investment. Despite all the publicity about high fares, the overwhelming percentage of volume increase in revenue has come from the volume increase in passnenger numbers. But this has been mirrored by the equivalent increase in cost.

 

[HowardGWR]

1 English gallon is 4.546 euromeasurements!

So be so kind as to calculate at 1.33 a litre how far I can travel. No, don't bother , just let everyone disappear back into the hermit's cave.

Just for a serious moment, the rise in petrol has made the difference. previously the price was so comparatively little (70 pence a litre), people just filled up. When it went up to 85, then we had the misnamed 'fuel strike'.

However, as we see now, even with the government abandoning the escalator for several years, people have changed in their outlook, it seems permanently.

I don't see any way back now, except some further rush orders for existing designs that can just be put into production, like the Bombardier stuff that Southern ordered for DfT, on spec, as it were.

 

[fowler9]

I was a little surprised after the West Ham game yesterday. I walked down from Anfield to Bank Hall station and caught a train to Seaforth and Litherland. It was three cars long and packed to the gills. People chose not to get on at the Bootle stations. Still,as long as everyone paid I doubt that Merseyrail are too worried.

 

[Moonshot]

So be so kind as to calculate at 1.33 a litre how far I can travel. No, don't bother , just let everyone disappear back into the hermit's cave.

Just for a serious moment, the rise in petrol has made the difference. previously the price was so comparatively little (70 pence a litre), people just filled up. When it went up to 85, then we had the misnamed 'fuel strike'.

However, as we see now, even with the government abandoning the escalator for several years, people have changed in their outlook, it seems permanently.

I don't see any way back now, except some further rush orders for existing designs that can just be put into production, like the Bombardier stuff that Southern ordered for DfT, on spec, as it were.

Or take an alternative view and invest heavily in light rail, which is proving to be very effective in moving volumes of passengers from A to B. In fact if I were to be a bit more forward looking, I would say that certainly in my urban area, it is not beyond the realms of possibilty to close down traditional rail stations within say a 15 mile radius of Manchester, and just run everything as a Tram. What would be left of heavy rail would be the longer inter urban/city routes which would be far more effective without the slower stopping traffic in the way....

 

[trainophile]

How are the "3 million journeys" and "6 million seats" calculated?

Is "a seat" one that is available between any two adjacent stations, while "a journey" would generally involve a passenger occupying a seat for several stations?

This would skew the seat:journey ratio considerably.

 

[DarloRich]

Why is it so may trains seem overcrowded nowadays? Not even just at peak times. It is not acceptable really when ticket prices are so high.

Yes, sometimes people can book in advance, but not always and should we be penalised if we can't?

More carriages please!

thanks for that - have you any proposals as to how this bounty shall be specified, designed, built, procured and funded?

 

[Moonshot]

How are the "3 million journeys" and "6 million seats" calculated?

Is "a seat" one that is available between any two adjacent stations, while "a journey" would generally involve a passenger occupying a seat for several stations?

This would skew the seat:journey ratio considerably.

3 million journeys is the 1.4 billion per year divided by 365

6 million seats is the 25000 train services daily ( ie from point A to point B ) multiplied by the average number of seats on a train which i reckon is 240.

I have made no allowance for the possibilty of a seat being occupied multiple times on a service, if I had the picture would actually be worse, therefore the assumption is a seat is occupied just once, which is a fair way of doing it as a service from point a to point b in most cases would involve all passengers disembarking at point b irrespective of where they boarded the train inbetween a and b.

 

[yorksrob]

3 million journeys is the 1.4 billion per year divided by 365

6 million seats is the 25000 train services daily ( ie from point A to point B ) multiplied by the average number of seats on a train which i reckon is 240.

I have made no allowance for the possibilty of a seat being occupied multiple times on a service, if I had the picture would actually be worse, therefore the assumption is a seat is occupied just once, which is a fair way of doing it as a service from point a to point b in most cases would involve all passengers disembarking at point b irrespective of where they boarded the train inbetween a and b.

Don't forget, some journeys will involve more than one train, whilst at the same time, not all legitimate journeys are captured in the stats - i.e. metrocard/season ticket journeys, so loadings aren't necessarily as low as you fear.

 

[Moonshot]

Don't forget, some journeys will involve more than one train, whilst at the same time, not all legitimate journeys are captured in the stats - i.e. metrocard/season ticket journeys, so loadings aren't necessarily as low as you fear.

No , I know I m right .... season tickets just count as an A to B journey, the ones I saw when I was at Network Rail specify the stations anyway....
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In any event, 3 million journeys could quite easily be accomadated on the UK rail network if they were spread evenly over the day...

 

[Bald Rick]

Well there's approx 23000 timetabled passenger trains a day on the network, around half of which are in the south east excluding long distance. At a guess the average train is 4 coaches long - the sprinters and pacers in the 'provinces' being offset by the 8s and 12s in the south east and some long distance services.

Say 70 seats a coach, 280 a train, that's 6.44m seats a day (Mon-Fri) from origin to destination of train. Given that many seat s are used more than once in the journey, the seat : occupancy ratio will be somewhat less than 50% on average.

But averages are a rather brutal statistical tool.

Edit: took me so long to post this, I see others have made similar points, sorry!

 

[6Gman]

Is it not also the case that the worst overcrowding is often on lines where the trains are already max possible length, and all paths are taken? I'm thinking Thameslink, SWT and - of course - LM Desiros between Liverpool and Birmingham.

 

[Moonshot]

Is it not also the case that the worst overcrowding is often on lines where the trains are already max possible length, and all paths are taken? I'm thinking Thameslink, SWT and - of course - LM Desiros between Liverpool and Birmingham.

There is actually a list somewhere of the top 10 overcrowded services.....Im sure one of them was a LM one from Euston and another a TPE service from Manchester Airport.

Free virtual pint of bitter to anyone who can find the link to that ....I ve forgot where it is

 

[yorksrob]

No , I know I m right .... season tickets just count as an A to B journey, the ones I saw when I was at Network Rail specify the stations anyway....

I know for a fact that not all of the journeys I make on my metro card are logged for the statistics. It's highly unlikely that I'm unique in that.

Saying that all journeys could be accommodated if they were easily spread is a bit like saying we'd need a lot fewer powerstations if electricity usage were spread evenly across the day. Yes, true in a way, but large proportions of the population are no more likely to start going to work or shopping when their offices/shops are closed than they are likely to watch the telly and do their ironing when they're asleep. Society doesn't work that way, so there's no point fantasising as if it did.

 

[Moonshot]

I know for a fact that not all of the journeys I make on my metro card are logged for the statistics. It's highly unlikely that I'm unique in that.

Saying that all journeys could be accommodated if they were easily spread is a bit like saying we'd need a lot fewer powerstations if electricity usage were spread evenly across the day. Yes, true in a way, but large proportions of the population are no more likely to start going to work or shopping when their offices/shops are closed than they are likely to watch the telly and do their ironing when they're asleep. Society doesn't work that way, so there's no point fantasising as if it did.

No it doesnt......but incentives can work in very subliminal ways, and I for one believe that 9-5 roles are going to diminish in the years to come.

 

[fowler9]

I think there are better ways for companies to spread their start and finish times across the 24 hour clock. Lets face it, as long as the country is so London centric the railways are fairly limited as to how many people they can get to London city centre for 9 and back home again just after five. Oddly enough lots of people actually need staff to be available outside the 9 to 5 window as well because that is when they are working.
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No it doesnt......but incentives can work in very subliminal ways, and I for one believe that 9-5 roles are going to diminish in the years to come.

Can I give that a like based on what I just said?

 

[YorkshireBear]

There is actually a list somewhere of the top 10 overcrowded services.....Im sure one of them was a LM one from Euston and another a TPE service from Manchester Airport.

Free virtual pint of bitter to anyone who can find the link to that ....I ve forgot where it is

London-bound train overcrowding: 100,000 have to stand
Passengers on crowded train

More than 100,000 rail commuters into London have to stand in the busiest times of the morning rush hour on a typical day, new figures have shown. The government figures showed a fifth of rush hour passengers stand and some trains run at 60% over capacity. On a typical weekday in autumn last year, 535,000 passengers arrived in central London by train in the morning peak time of 07:00 to 09:59. The Department of Transport (DfT) said overcrowding in 2012 was down on 2011. On average, a total of 977,000 people travel into London by trains each day.

The rail company with the highest level of passengers in excess of capacity (PiXC) of any London and south-east England operator was First Great Western, which was 7.1% over capacity. This was lower than in 2011.

The worst service for overcrowding was the 08:27 Heathrow Connect service from Heathrow to Paddington Station which typically travelled with 786 standard-class passengers - 65% over the capacity figure of 476. The 10 worst-crowded services in autumn 2012 travelled between 49% and 65% over capacity.

Quote:
Most over-crowded routes in autumn 2012

08:27 Heathrow-London Paddington
18:13 London Euston-Birmingham New Street
06:23 Manchester Airport-Middlesbrough
18:00 London Waterloo-Portsmouth Harbour
07:17 Banbury-London Marylebone
06:19 Birmingham Moor St-London Marylebone
07:32 Tattenham Corner-London Bridge
06:15 Portsmouth Harbour-London Waterloo
07:09 Henley-on-Thames-London Paddington
07:10 Haslemere-London Waterloo
'Unacceptable combination'
Outside London, the highest PiXC levels were at Leeds, Manchester and Sheffield, which all had just over 2% PiXC in the morning peak and between 1% and 2% in the afternoon peak. Richard Hebditch, campaigns director for the Campaign for Better Transport, said: "These statistics show rail is vital to the economy, getting millions of people to work every day. "But it also shows many commuters are faced with an unacceptable combination of overcrowded trains and spiralling ticket prices. "Government needs to give rail passengers a fair deal by ending above-inflation ticket price hikes and making sure franchise holders tackle overcrowding."

A spokesman for the Association of Train Operating Companies said: "Year on year, the official measure of overcrowding during peak times has fallen slightly overall. "We recognise that some services remain crowded and passengers get frustrated when they can't get a seat, which is why the rail industry is planning to increase peak time seats into and out of major cities by almost a third by 2019."

Transport Minister Norman Baker said: "Climbing on to a very crowded train is an unpleasant experience and I sympathise with passengers using these services. "I urge train operators to do what they can on these particular trains. The department is working closely with the industry to ensure this issue is tackled."

RMT rail union leader Bob Crow said nothing would change unless the railways were renationalised. "While passengers are forced to pay through the nose to stand, crammed in on sweltering, overcrowded trains, the private companies running these services are making huge profits in the safe knowledge that the whole racket of rail privatisation is a one-way ticket to the bank," Mr Crow said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-23436819

 

[trainophile]

The moral of those stats is don't live in Portsmouth if you work in London.

 

[yorksrob]

No it doesnt......but incentives can work in very subliminal ways, and I for one believe that 9-5 roles are going to diminish in the years to come.

Well, yes they do, but we've a hell of a long way to go, before we achieve a flat transport profile throughout the day (if we ever do). This is particularly pertinent for the South East in which, even if you vary office hours more, you'll still have an influx in the morning and an outflux in the evening.

 

[Moonshot]

Well, yes they do, but we've a hell of a long way to go, before we achieve a flat transport profile throughout the day (if we ever do). This is particularly pertinent for the South East in which, even if you vary office hours more, you'll still have an influx in the morning and an outflux in the evening.

Which if it happens is spread evenly across the peak anyway....more flexitime and charging for a super peak ticket would help that ..

 

[Andrewlong]

One solution to overcrowding on peak services would be to have mandatory seat reservations and no standing like they do on airlines. Not sure whether travelling public would take to having their freedoms curtailed.