I have an inkling you will tell me. I recorded the arrival time of the train at the point it arrived at the destination platform. Which I would think for the customer would be a reasonable measure of a trains arrival. Over 2 months 60% of my trains were more than 5 mins late or cancelled
That is not counting trains that were late at every stop often up to 10 mins. But due to the wee bit extra mins added between Bridge of Allen and Dunblane which is explained for safety etc it sneaks in at the destination just 5 mins late. But for all intents and purposes for most users of that train it was 10 min late. I didn't count those as late.
What is important is the customers perception of punctuality based on their experience in use. Not what the rail industry tell us is the measure of punctuality.
You are right tho. I have not timed every train movement in the network. Just my use. The evidence from experience is I think pretty convincing that train punctuality figures do not match passengers experiences on my service.
So let's carry out a thought experiment. You are presumably a Monday - Friday commuter travelling in peak hours in the peak flow direction Dunblane - Edinburgh rather than the reverse direction.
The punctuality figures for a route are calculated based on 5 minute on time arrival across a Monday - Sunday average all day.
In peak hours the railways run a number of additional services to provide additional capacity for peak flow commuters, in the western throat at Edinburgh I think there are around 4tph extra in the peak arrival 8am to 9am:
8 arrivals 8.00am to 9.00am from Fife / Dundee as opposed to 7tph off peak
4 arrivals 8.00am to 9.00am from Shotts / Carstairs as opposed to 2-3tph off peak
3 arrivals 8.00am to 9.00am from Dunblane as opposed to 2tph off peak
These extra services will necessarily reduce reliability and increase delays. But they are necessary to ensure peak flow commuters get a seat.
Equally as peak flow commuting trains are likely to be busier than other services there is also likely to be an increased dwell time at station calls. This can also reduce reliability and increase delays.
So it isn't unreasonable to expect that the published percentage of delays on a route would be a lower figure than delays measured purely on peak time arrivals and departures by a weekday peak flow commuter. There is unlikely to be a major conspiracy to fix the numbers but merely logical explanations as to why the service you experience may be worse than the average service performance.
Now you also acknowledge that there is a multi-million pound investment under way to decrease journey times and increase reliability for rail travellers. The £750m EGIP project scope is driven by the need to provide that additional capacity needed for peak flow commuters in peak flow direction as that is the time when the network capacity is most stretched. Lets think about where this money is coming from?
Peak time commuters also enjoy some of the lowest costs per journey of any rail traveller as the generous discounts on annual season tickets mean their costs are much reduced on a per journey basis. As the rail industry in Scotland does not fully cover the costs of running the trains and maintaining the track this means that the investment for these upgrades must come from general taxation instead of from the peak time commuter's fare.
There is good evidence out there that both commuter rail usage and commute distance strongly correlate to social class and wealth with longer distance commuted and use of rail for commuting both being indicators of relative wealth. You can therefore make a reasonable case that using general taxation funding for rail improvements that are only required to facilitate long distance commuting is a regressive use of public funds that leads to working class taxpayers subsidising the rich who choose to live in leafy Dunblane.
Thankfully in Scotland we do not have many politicians pushing this line and there is a wide recognition of the wider benefits of rail commuting in environmental, economic growth and social mobility that counter this view but it is certainly not a political guarantee that money should automatically be spent enabling long distance commuting like Dunblane - Edinburgh. Instead you could choose to promote shorter distance commuting by increasing services from areas closer to Edinburgh and raising prices for longer commutes to reduce peak demand and decrease the need for investment in extra capacity. This price increases for areas with capacity issues was a mechanism often used by British Rail to avoid need for capacity enhancements by pricing commuters off trains.
It's just worth remembering that as a peak time, long distance rail commuter you are the person who is causing the capacity problems and the fare you pay is not covering the cost of the service you are receiving or contributing to the investment in Naetwork Improvements. Personally I'm glad that other taxpayers like me are subsidising you as I believe there is a societal benefit for us all from increased rail commuting but this balance is dependent on politicians continuing to think it is politically worthwhile investing in rail. A constant barrage of political negativity towards those involved in rail investment programmes will not help to support the political consensus for further development of rail services in Scotland.
So by all means continue to hold organisations to account (especially where they are actually the organisation responsible) but the wilder allegations of dishonesty, conspiracy, incompetence and neglect are playground stuff that doesn't reflect the complex reality of trying to increase investment in rail and securing long term improvements through investment in new rolling stock, infrastructure improvements and organisational change.