CarterUSM
Established Member
Hopefully, I see little benefit to independence. I would expect it to be reasonably close however.
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Scotland Votes 2011
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Hopefully, I see little benefit to independence. I would expect it to be reasonably close however.
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Clydesdale has gone to SNP. But, in an interesting twist, the Lib Dems failed to submit the paperwork for their candidate so weren't even standing here 
This one has to be taken with a degree of caution, as obviously Lib Dem voters could not possibly vote for their candidate.
Similar swing to SNP.
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Yeah, the sooner the better. The sooner we go it alone, the better
(I know, neither the time nor the place...)
This one has to be taken with a degree of caution, as obviously Lib Dem voters could not possibly vote for their candidate. Similar swing to SNP.
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Yeah, the sooner the better. The sooner we go it alone, the better
(I know, neither the time nor the place...)CarterUSM
Established Member
Yeah, the sooner the better. The sooner we go it alone, the better
It's okay, I respect your position on it! Discussion for another time though as you say.
East Lothian looks ready to declare soonish. That's Iain Gray's seat. And it's close. If he doesn't win his seat, he's not on the list and will not be elected.
It's a different part of the country from the seats already declared, but if the swing holds up out that way, then things will get really interesting.
It's a different part of the country from the seats already declared, but if the swing holds up out that way, then things will get really interesting.
Eng274
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it seems that very idea that independence is a 'discussion for another time' has helped improve the SNPs credibility amongst voters who don't know/care about it at the moment.
Independence is clearly a central SNP policy, but they have proven over the past four years that they're not just a single-issue party. As such, there are plenty of unionist voters voting for the SNP (just as there will be plenty of nationalist voters supporting unionist parties).
Before we discuss a referendum, we need to see if the swing continues across Scotland. It's a huge debate for if and when the bill is introduced to the Parliament. We don't know enough about the 4th Parliament yet to speculate, and it's a bit heavy going for 2-3am!
Before we discuss a referendum, we need to see if the swing continues across Scotland. It's a huge debate for if and when the bill is introduced to the Parliament. We don't know enough about the 4th Parliament yet to speculate, and it's a bit heavy going for 2-3am!
CarterUSM
Established Member
I agree wholeheartedly. Many people just want to see good governance first and foremost.
Labour have just won Eastwood, which was notionally a Conservative seat. Not a strong SNP seat, so no surprise there. But SNP and Labour both gained whilst Tories and Lib Dems floundered.
Uddingston & Bellshill is now retained by Labour, although it's a relatively narrow majority and once again a huge swing to SNP (9%).
These signs will probably give Labour some breathing space, despite the SNP gains.
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SNP have just won Airdrie & Shotts. Yes, you've read that right. SNP won a seat in Monklands.
The Monklands Hospital debate is still ongoing, and has helped them there. But it's still a significant swing over to the SNP (5.5%).
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Glasgow Southside (Nicola Sturgeon's old Glasgow Govan seat, but notionally Labour since the boundary changes) is regained by SNP and Ms Sturgeon, with quite a significant majority (over 4,000 votes and a 9.7% swing).
Uddingston & Bellshill is now retained by Labour, although it's a relatively narrow majority and once again a huge swing to SNP (9%).
These signs will probably give Labour some breathing space, despite the SNP gains.
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SNP have just won Airdrie & Shotts. Yes, you've read that right. SNP won a seat in Monklands.
The Monklands Hospital debate is still ongoing, and has helped them there. But it's still a significant swing over to the SNP (5.5%).
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Glasgow Southside (Nicola Sturgeon's old Glasgow Govan seat, but notionally Labour since the boundary changes) is regained by SNP and Ms Sturgeon, with quite a significant majority (over 4,000 votes and a 9.7% swing).
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90019
Established Member
Can I just say this is the first time I've been on television?
CarterUSM
Established Member
Are you in Shetland?!?!?B-)
Tavish Scott for the Lib Dems retain Shetland. A very safe seat for them, and quite comfortably held for such a small constituency.
And, the one I've been waiting for... East Lothian goes to... Labour and Iain Gray, by a margin of only 151 votes! He'll be breathing a sigh of relief there.
Congratulations!
And, the one I've been waiting for... East Lothian goes to... Labour and Iain Gray, by a margin of only 151 votes! He'll be breathing a sigh of relief there.
Can I just say this is the first time I've been on television?
Congratulations!
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CarterUSM
Established Member
Decisive in the fact that he could stay on as leader. Had he lose the seat I doubt he could have continued.
CarterUSM
Established Member
I would say that could be the least of Labours problems. But it probably isn't. I'll be surprised if he stays on as leader though.
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Yep, the anti wind farm candidate secured a close second place and an admirable share of the vote.
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Yep, the anti wind farm candidate secured a close second place and an admirable share of the vote.
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90019
Established Member
I don't think he's likely to continue anyway. SNP have just won Glasgow Shettleston, with a 20% swing or something equally ludicrous! Perhaps being elected out would have been a more dignified approach.
Never mind seats, Lib Dems have been losing their deposits all night! A lot of them haven't even been at the declarations...
It's interesting to note that, whilst the difference between Labour and SNP isn't all that remarkable, most SNP seats have been gained from Labour. So you won't see the real picture until the safer SNP seats come in; will they go the same way, or will they perhaps lose some seats as well?
It's also interesting to note that the d'Hondt method makes it more difficult for SNP to gain seats in the party lists, so Labour will probably boost its numbers when these results come in, albeit with new and unknown MSPs!
It's also interesting to note that the d'Hondt method makes it more difficult for SNP to gain seats in the party lists, so Labour will probably boost its numbers when these results come in, albeit with new and unknown MSPs!
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SNP will definitely now have the most MSPs. 66 constituencies have returned their results as follows:
SNP: 47 (+28)
LAB: 14 (-18)
CON: 3 (-3)
LD: 2 (-7)
4 out of 8 regions have declared as follows:
SNP: 8 (-6)
LAB: 12 (+9)
CON: 6 (-1)
LD: 1 (-3)
GRN: 1 (+1)
This gives the following seats elected:
SNP: 55 (+23)
LAB: 26 (-10)
CON: 9 (-4)
LD: 3 (-10)
GRN: 1 (+1)
Still to be announced:
Argyll & Bute (SNP currently hold the seat with a small majority over the LDs)
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane (SNP hold with a small majority over LAB)
Cowdenbeath (Currently a fairly comfortable LAB seat)
Dunfermline (Notionally held by LD with a tiny majority; could go to either LAB or SNP - I predict the latter)
Mid Fife & Glenrothes (Notionally held quite comfortably by SNP)
North East Fife (A LD stronghold, with CON in 2nd place; there would need to be a huge swing here for an SNP victory, but given the parties involved, it's possible)
Kirkcaldy (LAB hold, but this is said to be very very close between the incumbent and the SNP)
Aside from Cowdenbeath, every seat has a realistic possibility of being an SNP victory in the FPTP lists. You've then got the regional lists to deal with. Still to be announced:
Highlands & Islands
Lothians
Mid Scotland & Fife
South of Scotland
SNP: 47 (+28)
LAB: 14 (-18)
CON: 3 (-3)
LD: 2 (-7)
4 out of 8 regions have declared as follows:
SNP: 8 (-6)
LAB: 12 (+9)
CON: 6 (-1)
LD: 1 (-3)
GRN: 1 (+1)
This gives the following seats elected:
SNP: 55 (+23)
LAB: 26 (-10)
CON: 9 (-4)
LD: 3 (-10)
GRN: 1 (+1)
Still to be announced:
Argyll & Bute (SNP currently hold the seat with a small majority over the LDs)
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane (SNP hold with a small majority over LAB)
Cowdenbeath (Currently a fairly comfortable LAB seat)
Dunfermline (Notionally held by LD with a tiny majority; could go to either LAB or SNP - I predict the latter)
Mid Fife & Glenrothes (Notionally held quite comfortably by SNP)
North East Fife (A LD stronghold, with CON in 2nd place; there would need to be a huge swing here for an SNP victory, but given the parties involved, it's possible)
Kirkcaldy (LAB hold, but this is said to be very very close between the incumbent and the SNP)
Aside from Cowdenbeath, every seat has a realistic possibility of being an SNP victory in the FPTP lists. You've then got the regional lists to deal with. Still to be announced:
Highlands & Islands
Lothians
Mid Scotland & Fife
South of Scotland
DarloRich
Veteran Member
Who got the Lochwinnoch seat?
Eng274
Member
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Depends which constituency it is in; if it's in Renfrewshire South or Greenock and Inverclyde it's Labour, if it's anywhere else in that area it's SNP gain/hold
Lochwinnoch is in the new Renfrewshire South constituency. The results are as follows:
Hugh Henry, Labour: 12,943
Andrew Doig, SNP: 10,356
Alistair Ramsay Campbell, Conservative: 2,917
Gordon Ian Anderson, Liberal Democrat: 702
Labour Hold, with a majority of 2,587 votes (9.6%).
5.4% swing from Labour to SNP
Renfrewshire South also elects candidates to the West of Scotland regional list, electing the following candidates:
Labour: Mary Fee, Neil Bibby & Margaret McDougall (32.8% of the vote)
SNP: Stewart Maxwell & Stewart McMillan (41.5% of the vote)
Conservative: Annabel Goldie & Jackson Carlaw (12.7% of the vote)
CarterUSM
Established Member
Jackson Carlaw? Now that is a cool name! Never mind being a rubbish old list MSP, I want him in number 10!
Hmm... BBC news assured me that there'd be no more seats until 3pm 
Still, well done to the SNP. I'm now looking forward to seeing Iain Gray leave front line politics for good. I would have rather seen him lose his seat, but this is a more tortuous process for him
Still, well done to the SNP. I'm now looking forward to seeing Iain Gray leave front line politics for good. I would have rather seen him lose his seat, but this is a more tortuous process for him
For some strange reason BBC Scotland stopped their coverage just after 2 PM and said they would be back at 3 PM. The Kirkcaldy declaration was reported on the BBC Scotland website some time before the BBC News Channel reported it.
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