They are looking for a 20 minute journey time reduction on Aberdeen - Edinburgh / Glasgow times.
A route via Forfar would be something like 45 miles of reinstated track so you won't get many change out of £600m, you wouldn't improve times to Edinburgh or England without a new line south of Perth and you wouldn't serve Scotland's 4th city of Dundee.
A new line alongside the A90 would be even more expensive.
Also politically any route avoiding Dundee is a non starter. An Inverkeithing - Perth (or even St Madoes as I have suggested previously) route could happen but it would have to include continued calls at Dundee as improving the fast connections between the 7 cities of Scotland is the whole point of this proposal. Anything missing out Dundee will not deliver that connectivity.
The RUS in 2011 analysed 3 options:
http://www.networkrail.co.uk/browse...rus generation 2/scotland/scottishrusbook.pdf
I presume the route proposed this time is again the new alignment to the west of the cutting, combined with replacement of the Montrose viaduct as a double track crossing.
Last time the BCR was analysed on this the numbers were very poor at around 0.1. Given the fact costs have not reduced, either they have identified new additional benefits or it is to be progressed despite the nominally poor business case because there is simply no viable alternative option.
I believe the intention is to run a 3tph service between Aberdeen and Dundee.
1tph Aberdeen - Dundee - Perth - Stirling - Glasgow
1tph Aberdeen - Dundee - Leuchars - Haymarket - Edinburgh
1tph Aberdeen - Stonehaven - Montrose - Laurencekirk - Arbroath - Carnoustie - Dundee - Leuchars - Cupar - Ladybank - Markinch - Kirkcaldy - Inverkeithing - Edinburgh Gateway - Haymarket - Edinburgh
There might also be implementation of a full hourly Dundee (or Arbroath) to Glasgow service to allow more calls at Carnoustie, Monifieth, Broughty Ferry, Dundee West, Gleneagles, Dunblane and Bridge of Allan and also enable allow faster Aberdeen - Glasgow services.
With that fast / fast / slow /slow service frequency and freight trains as well, it is simply impossible to timetable without the improvements at Usan, so if it is a political imperative to deliver the faster journey times then the scheme will happen, even with a traditionally poor business case.
The current Government have shown a willingness to invest in big ticket infrastructure schemes that provide step changes in connectivity even where traditional business cases do not strongly support such investment. Dualling the A9 and A96 are 2 such schemes that do not necessarily stand up to a BCR analysis but are seen as important strategic investments that are outwith the normal scheme assessment process. I suspect this scheme is going to be progressed in the same way.