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Scotland-London - Highest level for 20 years

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och aye

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Interesting story about rail travel between Scotland and London reaching its highest level for 20 years:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-40998997

Transform Scotland said rail journeys between central Scotland and London rose from a 20% market share to 33% between 2005 and 2015.

Talk of having 50% market share of travel between London-Scotland by 2023 might be feasible then. Although, I've not looked at the report. I wonder if it includes road as well as air travel?
 
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williamn

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So we're at the same place we were around when privitisation happened? Great progress...
 

class26

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So we're at the same place we were around when privitisation happened? Great progress...

You need to remember that there has been a massive increase in low cost airlines since privatisation. it makes a real difference
 

Ianno87

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So we're at the same place we were around when privitisation happened? Great progress...

Privatisation was just before the on-set of low cost airlines, the take-off (geddit?) of which which must've eaten into the rail market share quite substantially. To claw back that market share that was eaten away as a result is still some achievement.
 

Moonshot

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Privatisation was just before the on-set of low cost airlines, the take-off (geddit?) of which which must've eaten into the rail market share quite substantially. To claw back that market share that was eaten away as a result is still some achievement.

Correct.
 

Chester1

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I doubt there will be a substantial increase in market share until HS2 phase 1 opening in 2026, maybe not until 2033. New trains on the ECML cutting journey times should help and First's open access service should help too. I don't see either giving a significant competitive edge over air travel though. The 3 hour journey target for London-Scotland seems to be roughly the correct goal for achieving a big modal shift.
 

Moonshot

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I doubt there will be a substantial increase in market share until HS2 phase 1 opening in 2026, maybe not until 2033. New trains on the ECML cutting journey times should help and First's open access service should help too. I don't see either giving a significant competitive edge over air travel though. The 3 hour journey target for London-Scotland seems to be roughly the correct goal for achieving a big modal shift.

I thought it was 4 ...but either way, High speed rail in Europe has taken away some previous air routes.
 

och aye

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I would imagine the increasing amount of security checks and baggage restrictions (especially on liquids) has helped increase the rail travel figures also.
 

Shaw S Hunter

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I thought it was 4 ...but either way, High speed rail in Europe has taken away some previous air routes.

Not just in Europe. Experience worldwide has shown that for rail to compete with air a (sub)3 hour city-centre to city-centre journey time is the absolute basic requirement. To make serious inroads needs sub 2h30m times but if rail can get down to 2 hours then air becomes insignificant. Since the full Pendolino operated VHF timetable came into service (Dec 2008) the air capacity on offer between Manchester and London has been considerably reduced and most air passengers on the route are making connections at Heathrow. It's also worth noting that not even the LCCs are trying to compete on Liverpool to London.
 

InOban

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I think it's the extra traffic is using the train. Airport stats don't show any fall in air traffic.

I believe the West of Scotland is still getting used to having a frequent, fast train service, something the East had had for thirty years.
 
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You need to remember that there has been a massive increase in low cost airlines since privatisation. it makes a real difference

In the same time, legacy carrier BA has swallowed up bmi, removed duplication and reduced the size of aircraft flying. No 757s (sadly), a lot less 767 usage.
 

InOban

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I've just checked the CAA statistics for June, the latest month for which complete data are available. Although there are variations between the 5 London airports, overall there has been no drop in air traffic, more like continued growth. Maybe the bargain fares advertised recently have stolen traffic from National express or Megabus.
 

JohnR

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I'm sure the removal of APD by the SCottish Government will help redress the balance. Those poor airlines need as much help as possible.
 

mrmartin

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APD is a ridiculous regressive tax, it should be scrapped. If you want to do it on green credentials do it on something like g/km/pax instead.
 

Bald Rick

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So we're at the same place we were around when privitisation happened? Great progress...

Not sure where you get that from. Rail market share of the air/rail segment was rather less than 20% in 1993 (I did the surveys); indeed it was less than 20% in 2005, notwithstanding what the minister says.

The big shift in market share has been primarily caused by APD, the added security arrangements at airports post 2006, the conclusion of years of weekend engineering works on the WCML in 2008 which significantly extended journey times to Glasgow, and the introduction VHF timetable post 2008 which further improved journey time and near doubled the frequency to Glasgow. All of which shifted the time / cost equation to rail.
 

Chester1

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I thought it was 4 ...but either way, High speed rail in Europe has taken away some previous air routes.

Its 4 hours for the ECML. HS2 should reduce London to Glasgow/Edinburgh to a little over 3 hours and a half hours. The central and Scottish governments have both backed further works to reduce the journey times to both cities to under 3 hours. This is considered the tipping point for a modal shift based on Europe.
 

SteveP29

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Reporting Scotland showed an Azuma crossing the Borders Bridge at Berwick in their story and said that the train was going to cut journey times between Scotland and London.

I'm just wondering how that's going to be possible since they still won't be able to do more than 125 IIRC, or will it be quicker on the Edinburgh- Berwick section?
 

jayah

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APD is a ridiculous regressive tax, it should be scrapped. If you want to do it on green credentials do it on something like g/km/pax instead.

It is lots of things, but regressive?

Most people flying even budget are relatively well off and there are big premiums for long haul and First Class.
 

jayah

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Its 4 hours for the ECML. HS2 should reduce London to Glasgow/Edinburgh to a little over 3 hours and a half hours. The central and Scottish governments have both backed further works to reduce the journey times to both cities to under 3 hours. This is considered the tipping point for a modal shift based on Europe.

If this were France you would build a High Speed line from somewhere like Hitchin to Dunbar in phases that would cut the journey time to well under 3 hours for less than Phase 1 is costing.
 

mrmartin

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It is lots of things, but regressive?

Most people flying even budget are relatively well off and there are big premiums for long haul and First Class.

How can it not be regressive? Wealthy business person taking short haul flight is not going to notice the £20 or whatever, it'll be a tiny %age of his income.

Poorer family of 4 going on an annual summer holiday is definitely going to notice the £80 though, which will be a much larger %age of income.

Few people take business on short haul these days, does BA even offer it?

I don't even know what the point of it is. It's definitely not environmental because you get charged the same running a virtually empty 707 as you do flying a brand new 100% load factor A320NEO.
 

Failed Unit

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Reporting Scotland showed an Azuma crossing the Borders Bridge at Berwick in their story and said that the train was going to cut journey times between Scotland and London.

I'm just wondering how that's going to be possible since they still won't be able to do more than 125 IIRC, or will it be quicker on the Edinburgh- Berwick section?

Quicker sectional times because of their better start / stop.

Less stops on certain trains. Remember a lot of fat in current timetable. I know it is called recovery time but i have noticed once you lose your slot you are stuck behind something else. You don't recover on yellows.

But in the past a services stopping at York, Darlington, Newcastle and Berwick was timetabled to do it in 4h09. (And achieved if) so the new trains have lots of scope if they can keep stopping services out the way.
 

squizzler

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Not just in Europe. Experience worldwide has shown that for rail to compete with air a (sub)3 hour city-centre to city-centre journey time is the absolute basic requirement. To make serious inroads needs sub 2h30m times but if rail can get down to 2 hours then air becomes insignificant. Since the full Pendolino operated VHF timetable came into service (Dec 2008) the air capacity on offer between Manchester and London has been considerably reduced and most air passengers on the route are making connections at Heathrow. It's also worth noting that not even the LCCs are trying to compete on Liverpool to London.

Three hours is certainly a commonly cited rule of thumb. It was probably true when much of the European HSR network was being developed in the 1990's but recent experience has shown the viable distance to be longer than that, hence Eurostar services to South France, Amsterdam.
 

AlterEgo

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It is lots of things, but regressive?

Most people flying even budget are relatively well off

No they aren't - I fly budget a fair bit and I wouldn't say Ryanair's passenger demographic was "mostly relatively well off" at all.
 

Blindtraveler

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Some interesting points here. Pre liquid restrictions/upped security I wouldnt consider anything other than flying Scotland London wheere affordable as generally used to be quicker. Now no longer the case so each journey is done case by case on cost grounds with an average for me of about 1 in 10 or less on the ECML due to price, increasingly rubbish service from the incumbant opperater and the regularity with which the service falls to bits, not to mention the cost which is often for me double the WCML even with splits/slower routes/times etc.

The coach market is radically different to 20 or even 10 years ago as whilst journeytimes are little different the levels of and numbers of services has altered greatly.

As an enthusiast Im cheered by the fact rail is holding its own, as a passenger Im amazed given the often high costs and often dizmal ECML.
 

Mag_seven

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Three hours is certainly a commonly cited rule of thumb. It was probably true when much of the European HSR network was being developed in the 1990's but recent experience has shown the viable distance to be longer than that, hence Eurostar services to South France, Amsterdam.

Another factor other than journey time that now tends to favour rail over air is the ability to work on the move. Back in the 80's and even early 90's mobile phones and laptops were not commonly available. Now they are available and with train travel you can board a train at Glasgow, work for 4 and a half hours and arrive in London. You simply cannot do that for much of the journey from city centre to city centre using a plane.
 
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Shimbleshanks

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I have friends and family in Edinbro and Glasgow and purely anecdotally, I've detected a terndency for people to take the train these days - wheras 20 years ago flying seemed to be almost a proof of your worth and virility.

I think people have cottoned on to the fact that, door to door, the train is only about 1-2 hours slower and you can get much more done on a train than shuffling about in airport security queues or being barked at by air hostesses to stop using your laptop during takeoff.
 

gallafent

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How can it not be regressive? Wealthy business person taking short haul flight is not going to notice the £20 or whatever, it'll be a tiny %age of his income.

I think I agree with you that it's regressive, but not for that reason. If the fare with with the £13 short-haul economy APD is associated with a fare which his less than half of that on which is levied £26 for short-haul non-economy seat, then it's regressive, and I think this is often the case. If the non-economy fare is less than double the economy fare then it isn't regressive. It's not a tax on income, it's a tax on a service, and the cost of the service is what it should be compared with. That's one angle at least. Clearly any flat tax is “regressive” when compared with income of course, assuming everybody pays it (which is of course a wrong assumption for any tax which one can choose to pay or not, such as APD). It's similar to the argument about VAT being progressive or regressive … millionaires spend an awful lot of VAT on expensive cars and dining out, I'll warrant, … but their VAT spend as a proportion of income, … well, it just depends how high you go! :)

I totally agree with the sentiment though. Adding VAT on air fares and abolishing APD would be “fairer” from this perspective. Problem with that, though, is that it doesn't provide the same nudge to the airlines to fly with fewer empty seats (unless APD remained vestigially being charged on the empty seats only!) … and would be likely to be straightforward to work around, given the international structure of many airlines and ticket sales companies.

Poorer family of 4 going on an annual summer holiday is definitely going to notice the £80 though, which will be a much larger %age of income.

£52, probably a larger proportion of after-tax income than the £104 paid by the business-class-travelling family, yes (and of course if the latter travelled economy then it must be).

An increase in the higher rate (which seems sensible to me) would alter the progressive/regressive question a bit but would only move the line, not solve the problem.

Without income-geared VAT (or other equivalent purchase taxes), though, how do you suggest this circle be squared? Nobody's managed it yet in this context nor any other! Simply increasing income tax for higher earners is the only known way. Targetted taxation on products and services bought by the wealthy is already well-used, e.g. stamp duty banding to hit more valuable houses, and that's the principle used with APD too, clearly. Higher APD on non-economy seats is less regressive than flat APD.

Few people take business on short haul these days, does BA even offer it?

Yes. Economy £78 return LHREDI vs £213 business class LCYEDI on same dates, for example. So in this case VAT would be “more progressive” than APD since the business class fare is more than double the economy fare.

I don't even know what the point of it is. It's definitely not environmental because you get charged the same running a virtually empty 707 as you do flying a brand new 100% load factor A320NEO.

How can it not be environmental? Person taking flight pays extra £13 (or £26 if they're taking more space/mass in the plane) to use mode of transport which emits more CO2 per passengerkm than some other mode. Tax discourages use of environmentally damaging mode … although it's worth noting from http://www.aef.org.uk/downloads/Grams_CO2_transportmodesUK.pdfthat “large car with one passenger” emits more CO2 per passengerkm than an aircraft, from London to Edinburgh, … so perhaps the APD on the expensive seats should be /reduced/ from an environmental perspective! :) (of course fuel duty is already there to act as a tax geared on fossil fuel consumption by the car).

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN00523/SN00523.pdf is an interesting read, on “Taxing Aviation Fuel” which would clearly be an obvious way to improve matters from an environmental perspective, but is fraught with difficulty.

Documents attached for reference in case they disappear from the web …
 

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gallafent

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Three hours is certainly a commonly cited rule of thumb. It was probably true when much of the European HSR network was being developed in the 1990's but recent experience has shown the viable distance to be longer than that, hence Eurostar services to South France, Amsterdam.

I wonder if that's to do with the increased security and immigration hassle / time required these days too, compared to a couple of decades ago.
 

squizzler

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It's probably to a large extent caused by the security theatre and quality of experience at the air terminals. I get the impression that the success of budget airlines probably sowed the seeds of their own downfall. Air travel has become so competitive that operators are painted into a corner where they have nowhere to go but to compete on price.

Rail routes by comparison have fewer operators to choose from and, even for open access operators who can walk away if things go badly, the difficulty in securing paths means there seems to be more long term thinking. Hence effort to differentiate themselves on brand rather than just price.
 

47271

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Another factor other than journey time that now tends to favour rail over air is the ability to work on the move. Back in the 80's and even early 90's mobile phones and loptops were not commonly available. Now they are available and with train travel you can board a train at Glasgow, work for 4 and a half hours and arrive in London. You simply cannot do that for much of the journey from city centre to city centre using a plane.
Precisely my take on it for business travel.

The problem with flying is that you can't settle to anything.

Here's what I did on a recent air trip I made from central Edinburgh to London via Gatwick:

Taxi (30 mins)
Check in (10 mins)
Security queue (20 mins)
Shuffle round duty free (5 mins)
Sit at gate (20 mins)
Stand up at gate (10 mins)
Shuffle on to plane and sit in tiny seat (15 mins)
Wait on tarmac for air traffic (15 mins)
Get out laptop and try to do a bit of work in impossible conditions (110 mins due to Gatwick holding pattern)
Shuffle off plane (5 mins)
Stand on bus and help airsick passenger (10 mins)
Wait on bus outside terminal (5 mins)
Shuffle off bus (5 mins)
Wait for bag (10 mins)
Walk to station (10 mins)
Queue for train ticket (5 mins)
Wait for train (15 mins)
Use train (30 mins)

Just under five and a half hours door to door.

Probably slightly longer than if I'd walked to Waverley, got the train, and then taken public transport to my final destination The Strand.

Also probably not an optimum experience in terms of air traffic delays, it was summer holiday time after all, and arguably I could have risked arriving at Edinburgh Airport a little later.

However, in that five or so hours the only time I could settle to anything other than hurried phone conversations (generally with terrible noise in the background) or a glance at email was when I was crammed on the plane, and then a bit on the train into Blackfriars. Maybe one third of the total journey time, and a very unsatisfactory one third at that.

Or I could have got on at Waverley, got all my stuff out for four and a half hours, and then got off again.
 
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