Russia invades Ukraine

[birchesgreen]

Fortunately the US seem to be filing this under "sh*t happens" and will likely restrict the response to some diplomatic harrumphing. Neither the US nor Russia are interested in direct conflict. One thing Biden is not, is a hothead. Couldn't say the same for Putin...

Incidents like this were not uncommon during the Cold War.

 

[RichJF]

If Russia had forced a manned fighter/intelligence aircraft to crash land in the Black Sea we would've been in another ballpark & in more dangerous territory.

TWO supersonic fighters picked on a single UAV that cruises under 200 mph. Russian tactics of picking on something that is already weaker than themselves & bragging about it.

 

[brad465]

Another smoking incident:

Fire at security building in Russia's Rostov-on-Don

One person dies in the blaze in a federal security service building in the southern Russian city.

www.bbc.co.uk

At least one person has been killed and two injured in a fire at a building used by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, Russian media say.
Dramatic footage on social media shows a large blaze, with smoke visible all over the city.
Rostov's regional governor said a short circuit appeared to have caused the fire, which ignited fuel tanks.
The street where the building is located has been cordoned off.
The blaze occurred at a building belonging to the FSB's regional border patrol section in a built-up area of the city.
The FSB is Russia's internal security service and is responsible for counter-intelligence, border security and counter-terrorism.
Rostov Governor Vassily Golubev said the fire had spread over 800 sq m, causing two walls to collapse.
He said there was no threat that the fire would spread but that residents of nearby blocks of flats were being evacuated as a precaution.
RIA news agency said quoting emergency services that the area on fire was a two-storey building used for garages and storage.
Rostov-on-Don is the capital of a southern Russian region bordering on the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, currently the scene of intense fighting in the war.
There have been a spate of arson attacks on government buildings in Russia, such as enlistment and conscription offices, since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

 

[najaB]

They really need to stamp down on smoking, it really does appear to be bad for their health.

 

[jon0844]

Smoking, using stairs, being near windows, drinking tea. It's amazing how dangerous it can be if you're Russian.

 

[najaB]

Smoking, using stairs, being near windows, drinking tea. It's amazing how dangerous it can be if you're Russian.

Especially if you express anything other than complete and total loyalty to the regime.

 

[DustyBin]

It's being widely reported that Poland is going to supply Ukraine with MiG-29s. They're going to release four initially. I presume they'll be fully NATO-compatible, but I'm not sure exactly what armaments they carry? I made the point previously, but it's Western missiles etc. that will make the difference to Ukraine; I'm not sure it really matters from which platform they're fired (within reason, obviously).

 

[najaB]

I made the point previously, but it's Western missiles etc. that will make the difference to Ukraine; I'm not sure it really matters from which platform they're fired (within reason, obviously).

That's true. But it's easier to learn a new weapon system than it is to learn both the weapon system and the aircraft it's fired from.

 

[DustyBin]

That's true. But it's easier to learn a new weapon system than it is to learn both the weapon system and the aircraft it's fired from.

Yes absolutely. Serviceable MiG-29s carrying Western armaments are arguably the ideal solution, in the short term at least.

 

[Annetts key]

Yes absolutely. Serviceable MiG-29s carrying Western armaments are arguably the ideal solution, in the short term at least.

Devil is in the detail. Not all Western/N.A.T.O. aircraft fighter/air superiority and strike/ground attack aircraft can carry anywhere near all the various Western/N.A.T.O. weapons/bombs/missiles.

So it depends entirely on what modifications have been carried out to the MiG-29s and which weapons/bombs/missiles they are now capable of using.

 

[DustyBin]

Devil is in the detail. Not all Western/N.A.T.O. aircraft fighter/air superiority and strike/ground attack aircraft can carry anywhere near all the various Western/N.A.T.O. weapons/bombs/missiles.

So it depends entirely on what modifications have been carried out to the MiG-29s and which weapons/bombs/missiles they are now capable of using.

Well, yes. I don’t know what the Polish MiGs can carry, but seemingly Ukraine managed to adapt their own aircraft to carry western missiles (sorry I can’t remember which type), so hopefully Poland’s carry some of the advanced stuff.

 

[ainsworth74]

but seemingly Ukraine managed to adapt their own aircraft to carry western missiles (sorry I can’t remember which type)

AGM-88 HARM an anti-radition (that is to say radar) missile. A move which will have made a lot of defence industrial execs start sweating. Because the next time they try and tell a potential customer "Oh well it'll take several years and millions of dollars for us to integrate that missile onto your aircraft" they're facing a high risk of being told "Well Ukraine managed to do it in a few weeks and they were integrating NATO missiles to ex-Soviet aircraft..."

 

[gingerheid]

I guess it depends on the kind of integration you want. They've integrated grenades in takeaway cups to DJI Mavics...

 

[ainsworth74]

I guess it depends on the kind of integration you want.

The kind that works. Seems like the AGM-88s have been working fine for Ukraine even with their rushed integration.

 

[XAM2175]

Before the collision the Russian aircraft also attempted to dump fuel on the drone.

The Pentagon have released a video taken by the drone:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/16/politics/us-military-video-drone-russian-jet/index.html

 

[DustyBin]

AGM-88 HARM an anti-radition (that is to say radar) missile. A move which will have made a lot of defence industrial execs start sweating. Because the next time they try and tell a potential customer "Oh well it'll take several years and millions of dollars for us to integrate that missile onto your aircraft" they're facing a high risk of being told "Well Ukraine managed to do it in a few weeks and they were integrating NATO missiles to ex-Soviet aircraft..."

Thanks, that was the one I was thinking of. I remember reading about Russian air defence systems not turning their radars on for fear of being targeted.

 

[brad465]

I don't see it being honoured anytime soon, but the ICC have taken the landmark step of issuing an arrest warrant for Putin:

Putin arrest warrant issued over war crime allegations

The Russian president is wanted by the ICC for alleged war crimes during his Ukraine invasion.

www.bbc.co.uk

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The ICC alleges he is responsible for war crimes, including the unlawful deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia.
It says the crimes were committed in Ukraine from 24 February 2022 - when Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
Moscow has denied allegations of war crimes during the invasion.

 

[edwin_m]

I guess it depends on the kind of integration you want. They've integrated grenades in takeaway cups to DJI Mavics...

The kind that works. Seems like the AGM-88s have been working fine for Ukraine even with their rushed integration.

If it's just a matter of pointing the plane at the target and pressing the trigger, then the interface could be nothing more than a couple of wires, a connector and maybe a relay or two. If the pilot needs to interact with the missile to identify the target before or after firing, then it could be a lot more complicated.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I don't see it being honoured anytime soon, but the ICC have taken the landmark step of issuing an arrest warrant for Putin:

Putin arrest warrant issued over war crime allegations

The Russian president is wanted by the ICC for alleged war crimes during his Ukraine invasion.

www.bbc.co.uk

I genuinely wonder how much (if any) affect this is going to have.

Side note, I wonder if anyone else is going to follow suit with fighter jets. I see the US is still pretty hesitant to do so.

 

[yorksrob]

I genuinely wonder how much (if any) affect this is going to have.

Symbolic as much as anything.

I think it more likely he'll be bumped off than end up in a court somewhere (and I'm not convinced that's particularly likely either).

Might tarnish President Xi's buddy visit a little bit though

 

[43096]

Might tarnish President Xi's buddy visit a little bit though

That's President Xi, who's own regime is tarred by serial accusations of human rights abuses (e.g. the Uyghur Muslims). Doubt he's going to be too bothered by the ICC arrest warrant for Putin, somehow.

 

[yorksrob]

That's President Xi, who's own regime is tarred by serial accusations of human rights abuses (e.g. the Uyghur Muslims). Doubt he's going to be too bothered by the ICC arrest warrant for Putin, somehow.

Oh, it won't bother him, but it might take a little of the lustre off of the event in the eyes of others.

 

[Fleetmaster]

I don't see it being honoured anytime soon, but the ICC have taken the landmark step of issuing an arrest warrant for Putin:

Putin arrest warrant issued over war crime allegations

The Russian president is wanted by the ICC for alleged war crimes during his Ukraine invasion.

www.bbc.co.uk

A classic case of virtues getting in the way of morals.

Given exile to a third country after a domestic uprising is a realistic way to end this war, Putin now has even less reason not to fight to the bitter end.

 

[yorksrob]

A classic case of virtues getting in the way of morals.

Given exile to a third country after a domestic uprising is a realistic way to end this war, Putin now has even less reason not to fight to the bitter end.

I'm not sure. He could just decamp to a country that isn't keen on the ICC.

I feel that the benefit outweighs the risk in this case.

 

[Ediswan]

I'm not sure. He could just decamp to a country that isn't keen on the ICC.

Such as the USA. Maybe not.

 

[yorksrob]

Such as the USA. Maybe not.

Good point well made

 

[brad465]

I genuinely wonder how much (if any) affect this is going to have.

Physically, none. Mentally it might provide Ukraine a morale boost knowing their cause is even more justified.

 

[Loppylugs]

Could make it more interesting by putting a bounty on Putin's head.

 

[Fleetmaster]

Could make it more interesting by putting a bounty on Putin's head.

To repeat my earlier theme, the chances of this war ending well, don't increase by making Putin ever more paranoid and afraid to leave his bunker.

if the chance of being snatched up by the A-Team means he no longer even goes outside in Moscow and gets the chance to look ordinary people in the eyes, his delusions may eventually become his perceived reality.

 

[jon0844]

Could make it more interesting by putting a bounty on Putin's head.

That would make the Chinese meeting more interesting.