Russia invades Ukraine

[brad465]

Explosion reported in Kolomna, which is around 70 miles from Moscow. No news reports yet but video footage exists and reporting may soon follow:

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1631388069751300119

Footage: After a powerful explosion in #Kolomna, Moscow Oblast, 70 miles South-East from Moscow city. Its about that time

Video attached

 

[Cloud Strife]

Explosion reported in Kolomna, which is around 70 miles from Moscow.

If this is another Ukrainian air attack, where are the Russian air defences? For Ukraine to get within 70 miles of Moscow is ridiculous, as it seems that it would have flown for 600-700km within Russian territory.

 

[Pete_uk]

There seems to be ani Russian/government groups working inside Russia now.

When Putin goes, it could get messy.

 

[yorksrob]

There seems to be ani Russian/government groups working inside Russia now.

When Putin goes, it could get messy.

When the penny drops amongst the population that their sons have been slaughtered for no reason at all, I imagine there will be some unrest.

 

[brad465]

There seems to be ani Russian/government groups working inside Russia now.

When Putin goes, it could get messy.

I wouldn't rule out a Russian Revolution II if/when Putin is brought down.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

I wouldn't rule out a Russian Revolution II if/when Putin is brought down.

More likely to be an orchestrated shift of power to another "chosen one" carefully selected by the oligarchs. But I think we are a long way from that. There's nothing yet to suggest that the military situation is going to change decisively in either direction. It'll be months before western tanks appear in any numbers on the Ukrainian side and in the meantime there's going to be a literal arms race in the production of ammunition, rockets, missiles to replenish severely diminished stocks on both sides. Right now I suspect the Russians are slightly ahead and it's logistics that are holding them back.

 

[DustyBin]

More likely to be an orchestrated shift of power to another "chosen one" carefully selected by the oligarchs. But I think we are a long way from that.

I’m inclined to agree with you. From what I’ve read, the oligarchs are “tolerating” the war for now as it’s the safer option. If and when that changes it’s quite possible that they’ll remove Putin, and any potential lunatic replacements at the same time. I think there’s more chance of a moderate replacing him than a hardliner for this reason (I could be wrong of course).

 

[Annetts key]

Question: would some regions of Russia splitting up be bad for the oligarchs?

 

[DustyBin]

Question: would some regions of Russia splitting up be bad for the oligarchs?

On the face of it no, but they may not like the potential security threat. I certainly don’t think anybody wants to see newly-autonomous nuclear armed states for example (worst case scenario admittedly).

 

[357]

On the face of it no, but they may not like the potential security threat. I certainly don’t think anybody wants to see newly-autonomous nuclear armed states for example (worst case scenario admittedly).

Especially when, after seeing what happened to Ukraine, the possibility of them voluntarily giving up their nuclear arms are almost 0.

 

[Annetts key]

On the face of it no, but they may not like the potential security threat. I certainly don’t think anybody wants to see newly-autonomous nuclear armed states for example (worst case scenario admittedly).

You could argue that prior to 2014, Ukraine saw the advantages of disarming itself of the nuclear weapons (that it could not allegedly use without reverse engineering). Of course, Ukraine was not afraid of “the west” and that may not be the case for regions/parts of Russia that split away. However, if said regions were afraid of the west, I would not expect them to split away in the first place.

 

[DustyBin]

You could argue that prior to 2014, Ukraine saw the advantages of disarming itself of the nuclear weapons (that it could not allegedly use without reverse engineering). Of course, Ukraine was not afraid of “the west” and that may not be the case for regions/parts of Russia that split away. However, if said regions were afraid of the west, I would not expect them to split away in the first place.

It depends on the path Russia follows post-Putin; we may actually see Russia turn to the West. Somewhere like Chechnya has little to fear from the West unless they’re thinking about exporting terror around the world (which I suspect they aren’t). Any conflict would almost certainly be with Russia (again). That said, going back to your original question the oligarchs may simply say “have your independence but behave” and leave it at that.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Question: would some regions of Russia splitting up be bad for the oligarchs?

Generally speaking, no. Letting Chechnya become a warlord-ruled hellhole wouldn't be much of an issue, because Russia spends a lot of money on keeping the place down.

But for Russia to no longer pose a threat, then the only option is to create at least four new states, plus several microstates. Two should be in European Russia, ideally with St Petersburg being the new capital of the new Northern state, which (for geopolitical reasons) would reach from Murmansk to north of Volgograd (at the narrowest point between Ukraine and Kazakhstan). The other state should be centred on Moscow, and stretching to Ufa/Perm.

Then you can have a southern state centred on Volgograd, a new "East of Urals" state with the raw materials, and the troublesome republics such as Chechnya would go their own way into warlord madness.

An intact Russia will always, always try and move West, supported by locals who believe in Mother Russia above all. We saw this in Crimea and Mariupol, we're seeing this in Bakhmut: where there are Russians, there are problems.

 

[yorksrob]

Strictly speaking, Chechnya is already a warlord ruled hell hole. It just so happens that said warlord is in Putin's pocket.

 

[brad465]

Oh dear, Lavrov didn't exactly have his best day visiting Delhi:

Russian minister laughed at for Ukraine war claims

Sergei Lavrov is laughed at in Delhi after saying the Ukraine war was "launched against us".

www.bbc.co.uk

Sergei Lavrov: Russian foreign minister laughed at for Ukraine war claims​

Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, was laughed at in Delhi after saying the Ukraine war was "launched against us".

Lavrov claimed Russia was trying to stop the Ukraine war, which began after its own full-scale invasion in February 2022.

He was speaking to a conference audience in Delhi on Friday, after a G20 foreign ministers' meeting.

Video attached

 

[Cloud Strife]

Kadyrov is apparently seriously ill. If this is actually true, would anyone place bets against him being poisoned in some way?

 

[DustyBin]

Kadyrov is apparently seriously ill. If this is actually true, would anyone place bets against him being poisoned in some way?

He certainly looks very bloated on recent photos. Whether he’s seriously ill or not isn’t clear, and if he is, the cause is anyones guess at this stage. It’s totally feasible that he’s been poisoned though, catering standards in Russia are notoriously poor……

Going back to the previous discussion, could things get interesting in Chechnya without Kadyrov?

 

[Cloud Strife]

Going back to the previous discussion, could things get interesting in Chechnya without Kadyrov?

I would expect the Kremlin to simply put another strongman in power, to be honest. It's a viable way of governing an ungovernable area, provided you don't mind the countless breaches of human rights there.

 

[Parjon]

If this is another Ukrainian air attack, where are the Russian air defences? For Ukraine to get within 70 miles of Moscow is ridiculous, as it seems that it would have flown for 600-700km within Russian territory.

The Putin regime has had no qualms about throwing thousands of its own "loyal" people to their deaths through various means. People are totally disposable to them. Bombing their own cities to claim that is a justification for what they do next is nothing to them. They are widely known to have done this before re Chechnya, even so far as to mounting "attacks" in Moscow itself.

Pathological liars, gaslighters and psychopaths, representing the very worst of humanity, masquerading as a government.

Hopefully the reception that Putin's Lav-dog got the other day will ram the message home that not only will no one believe it, they also won't stay quiet. Something their Chinese government masters also want to pay attention to.

 

[brad465]

According to this the Russian reserves' standard is not even that of WWI, but more of Middle Age battles:

Ukraine war: Russian reservists fighting with shovels - UK defence ministry

Troops could be engaging in hand-to-hand combat in Ukraine, Britain's defence ministry says.

www.bbc.co.uk

Russian reservists are likely using "shovels" for "hand-to-hand" combat in Ukraine due to a shortage of ammunition, the UK's Ministry of Defence says.
In late February, reservists described being ordered to assault a Ukrainian position "armed with only 'firearms and shovels'", the ministry said in its latest intelligence update.
It mentioned a shovel known as MPL-50.
The tool was designed in 1869 and had changed little, the ministry said.
"The lethality of the standard-issue MPL-50 entrenching tool is particularly mythologised in Russia," the ministry said.
The continued use of the shovel "as a weapon highlights the brutal and low-tech fighting which has come to characterise much of the war", it said.
One of the reservists described being "neither physically nor psychologically" prepared for the action, the update added.
"Recent evidence suggests an increase in close combat in Ukraine," it said.
"This is probably a result of the Russian command continuing to insist on offensive action largely consisting of dismounted infantry, with less support from artillery fire because Russia is short of munitions."
The BBC has been unable to independently verify these reports. The ministry did not give information on where such battles were taking place.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Mar 2023 ==

The NS pipe explosion story has come up again after the New York Times reported evidence suggesting a pro-Ukrainian group was to blame. This has of course led to the claim by top military conspiracy theorist Seymour Hersh about the US being responsible for blowing it up being peddled again by anti-US/pro-Russian loyalists.

Ukraine denies involvement in Nord Stream pipeline blasts

A New York Times report says US officials believe a pro-Ukrainian group was behind last year's blasts.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine has denied any involvement in last September's attack on the Nord Stream pipelines, which carried Russian gas to Europe.
Kyiv's remarks follow a report from the New York Times, which cites anonymous US intelligence officials who suggest a pro-Ukrainian group was to blame.
In a separate report, German media say investigators believe they identified the boat used to plant the explosives.
Gas deliveries through the pipeline had been suspended before the blasts.
Russia shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in August last year, claiming it needed maintenance. Nord Stream 2 had never been put into service.
The exact cause of the 26 September blasts that hit the natural gas pipelines is unknown, but it is widely believed they were attacked.
Moscow has blamed the West for the explosions and called on the UN's Security Council to independently investigate them.
Nato and Western leaders have stopped short of directly accusing Russia, although the EU has previously said Russia uses its gas pipelines as a weapon against the West.

On Tuesday, the New York Times reported that new intelligence reviewed by US officials suggested that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines.
Citing anonymous US officials, the report said there was no evidence that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky or his top lieutenants were involved in the operation.
The US newspaper reported that the officials declined to disclose the nature of the intelligence, how it was obtained or "any details of the strength of the evidence it contains".
It added: "Officials who have reviewed the intelligence said they believed the saboteurs were most likely Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or some combination of the two."
Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said the Ukrainian government "was absolutely not involved" in the sabotage. In a statement in response to the New York Times report, Mr Podolyak added that Kyiv had no information about what had happened.
In response to the report, Russia's deputy UN envoy Dmitry Polyanskiy said: "[It] only proves that our initiative on launching an international investigation under the auspices of the UN Secretary-General is very timely."
Also on Tuesday, German newspaper Die Zeit reported that German authorities had made a breakthrough in their investigation into the cause of the attacks.
According to joint research published by the paper and other German media organisations, the boat used to plant the explosives was a yacht hired from a firm based in Poland, which reportedly belonged to two Ukrainians. The nationalities of those who carried out the attack were unclear.
However, the paper says German investigators have not yet found any evidence as to who ordered the destruction. It also points out that there is still the possibility of a false flag operation which was intended to point towards Ukraine.

 

[brad465]

This doesn't look good:

US drone crashes after encounter with Russian jet

The US says the two aircraft collided over the Black Sea, but Russia says there was no contact.

www.bbc.co.uk

Russian fighter jet collides with US surveillance drone over Black Sea, forcing US to bring down drone, US military says

 

[najaB]

This doesn't look good:

Fortunately it's an UAV so slightly less worrying than the 2001 Hainan Island incident.

 

[adc82140]

This doesn't look good:

US drone crashes after encounter with Russian jet

The US says the two aircraft collided over the Black Sea, but Russia says there was no contact.

www.bbc.co.uk

Fortunately the US seem to be filing this under "sh*t happens" and will likely restrict the response to some diplomatic harrumphing. Neither the US nor Russia are interested in direct conflict. One thing Biden is not, is a hothead. Couldn't say the same for Putin...

 

[ainsworth74]

Fortunately it's an UAV so slightly less worrying than the 2001 Hainan Island incident.

I'm more worried about the Russian jet.

 

[adc82140]

I'm more worried about the Russian jet.

As the incident happened about 12 hours ago, I'd assume it returned back to its base, complete with its thoroughly incompetent pilot.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

As the incident happened about 12 hours ago, I'd assume it returned back to its base, complete with its thoroughly incompetent pilot.

Incompetent? Quite possibly was under orders to try and take down the drone without opening fire on it. Before the collision the Russian aircraft also attempted to dump fuel on the drone.

 

[najaB]

Incompetent? Quite possibly was under orders to try and take down the drone without opening fire on it.

Well, at least partially incompetent - I'm sure the intention was to cause it to crash, but I don't think they intend to actually collide with it.

 

[Ediswan]

Well, at least partially incompetent - I'm sure the intention was to cause it to crash, but I don't think they intend to actually collide with it.

Depends on the nature of the "collision". In WWII, an RAF tactic against the V-1 was to overlap wingtips and flip the V-1.

 

[najaB]

Depends on the nature of the "collision". In WWII, an RAF tactic against the V-1 was to overlap wingtips and flip the V-1.

Which worked because the guidance was both primitive and completely inertial. I doubt it would work with an actively controlled UAV.

 

[Ediswan]

Which worked because the guidance was both primitive and completely inertial. I doubt it would work with an actively controlled UAV.

Probably true. I was seeking to note that the principle of a deliberate "collision" is well established.

In practice, assuming the US version is correct, deliberately making contact with a running propellor would seem to be a very risky tactic.