Russia invades Ukraine

[Cloud Strife]

Quite. The most successfully invaded territory in this war got the least publicity; for that would be Belarus'. We can't say it's either completely a puppet state or completely a sovereign country, but it's become much much more of one than it was before.

Belarus is a strange one, and I wouldn't be so quick to say that it was invaded. Russia might be conducting operations from there, but in terms of who controls what, Lukashenko's men are still very much in charge, and in general, they have a policy of trying to balance West vs East. Many of the attempts by Russia to seduce the Belarusian power brokers have failed miserably, such as the Union State. If Russia loses this war, then Belarus is likely to try to return to some degree of normality in their relations with the West.

How much actual combat capability they have is unclear - but they likely have more than the Moldovan army which doesn't even have any actual tanks.

The general state of affairs there is that neither side is capable of conquering the other, although it should be noted that Romania may not stand by as they did in 1990-2. But, the Transnistrian leadership has no interest in provoking a war, because it's in their interest to maintain their mafia state.

I can't really foresee Transnistria mounting any kind of military action against Moldova.

They really don't have any reason to do so. They know that Transnistria is finished if they do anything, because Moldova would likely receive immediate help from Ukraine and Romania, resulting in quick annihilation of the Russian forces there and the end of the Transnistrian state. The Transnistrian leadership were also quite keen to stress that it wasn't their war, probably because they know fine well that Ukraine on a war footing would easily seize Tiraspol within 3-4 hours at most.

Having said that, I suspect that once the war ends, Moldova will introduce a new blockade of Transnistria with the support of Ukraine.

Meanwhile Ukraine is also sufferiing many casualties and that must be a big concern for Zelensky.

It is a big concern. Historically, Russia has shown that they will simply keep throwing men at meaningless victories until all the meaningless victories add up. Still, I think that the end goal here is to "liberate" the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, then throw a huge amount of forces at securing the front lines. If they do that, it will be very hard for Ukraine to break through.

It certainly could be advance warning of false flag operations to give apparent cause to reopen a northern front. It's approaching make or break time. Putin isn’t for giving in and Ukraine cant afford to either.

My personal view hasn't changed: Belarus doesn't want to get involved, because the general Belarusian population is against war.

 

[najaB]

One wonders if he will have such a Ceausescu-moment. If he doesn’t jump at Putin’s call, he might find himself falling from a sixth-floor widow.

One could say that he's standing blindfolded, back to the wall, facing an upper-floor window.

Not a great place to find oneself!

 

[brad465]

European gas prices are now down to an 18 month low, falling below €50 per megawatt hour, which is bad news for Putin's income stream:

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The price of European natural gas has fallen below €50 per megawatt hour for the first time in almost 18 months, a landmark moment in the energy crisis as mild weather and ample storage helped temper once runaway prices.

 

[Yew]

European gas prices are now down to an 18 month low, falling below €50 per megawatt hour, which is bad news for Putin's income stream:

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Why do I feel that such a shift might not be reflected in our household bills?

 

[takno]

Why do I feel that such a shift might not be reflected in our household bills?

They'll be reflected in the next price cap. That's just the way it works at the moment

 

[Chingy]

China seemingly using the “balloon fiasco” and deteriorating relationship with the US to come off the fence into the hands of Russia with regards to potentially supplying them with weapons and ammo in the Ukraine war now;

Ukraine war: Blinken says China might give weapons to Russia

The US said China was considering "lethal support" for Russia in Ukraine - a claim denied by Beijing.

www.bbc.co.uk

China is considering giving Russia weapons and ammunition for the Ukraine war, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said.
Mr Blinken told CBS News that Chinese companies were already providing "non-lethal support" to Russia - and new information suggested Beijing could provide "lethal support".
This escalation would mean "serious consequences" for China, he warned.
China has denied reports that Moscow has requested military equipment.

In all essence, the Ukraine conflict is now escalating into a Proxy war involving all global superpowers.

 

[najaB]

China seemingly using the “balloon fiasco” and deteriorating relationship with the US to come off the fence into the hands of Russia with regards to potentially supplying them with weapons and ammo in the Ukraine war now;

I read this as more the USA warning China against supplying Russia, in light of recent tensions.

 

[gingerheid]

Sounds a bit like when we were busy warning Russia against invading more of Ukraine.

I have a feeling that China, like Russia, will do whatever it wants. In particular however, we in the west are no longer in a position to start cutting links with China like we did with Russia!!!

 

[najaB]

I have a feeling that China, like Russia, will do whatever it wants. In particular however, we in the west are no longer in a position to start cutting links with China like we did with Russia!!!

Equally, with China's economy where it is, they aren't in a position to risk those links.

 

[brad465]

Equally, with China's economy where it is, they aren't in a position to risk those links.

This will be a notable factor in why China is acting the way it is, to distract from their domestic problems.

 

[Pete_uk]

I wonder if the 3am U2 launch from Fairford was anything to do with Bidens visit.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I wonder if the 3am U2 launch from Fairford was anything to do with Bidens visit.

Probably. I am surprised a TACAMO plane was not in the air also just in case.

 

[brad465]

I wonder if the 3am U2 launch from Fairford was anything to do with Bidens visit.

Wasn't expecting that particular concert venue

 

[Loppylugs]

Wasn't expecting that particular concert venue

Me and Mrs. L saw the Glenn Miller tribute band at Fairford a few years ago.

 

[ainsworth74]

Probably. I am surprised a TACAMO plane was not in the air also just in case.

I'm not entirely sure why an airborne nuclear command and control post would be required to be aloft during Biden's visit as it seems highly unlikely the US Strategic Command in Nebraska and the US Navy's VLF transmitters would also have been taken out (which is the only time you'd actually need a TACAMO plane) even if something had gone wrong in Kyiv. Plus the VP was safely at home in the US and nowhere near anywhere dangerous.

 

[najaB]

I'm not entirely sure why an airborne nuclear command and control post would be required to be aloft during Biden's visit as it seems highly unlikely the US Strategic Command in Nebraska and the US Navy's VLF transmitters would also have been taken out (which is the only time you'd actually need a TACAMO plane) even if something had gone wrong in Kyiv.

It wouldn't be necessary but, given that the Russians keep as close an eye as possible on such things, it would have been a very strong "Don't try anything..." message in case they got any ideas.

That said, I can't see that they would deliberately try anything in the first place. They can just about manage to fight the war that they're already fighting so they'll have no desire to stir things up with the USA, militarily at least.

 

[ainsworth74]

It wouldn't be necessary but, given that the Russians keep as close an eye as possible on such things, it would have been a very strong "Don't try anything..." message in case they got any ideas.

I guess but I'm not sure the US needs to resort to such things when their conventional capabilities, alone even without the rest of NATO, are clearly so far ahead of Russia. No need to start the nuclear willy waving. Walk softly, carry a big stick, etc etc.

 

[najaB]

No need to start the nuclear willy waving. Walk softly, carry a big stick, etc etc.

Pretty sure that communications through TACAMO aren't exclusively used for ordering nuclear strikes. Agree though that it would be overkill - and one being airborne would be a clue to anyone watching that something was up.

 

[Gloster]

It wouldn't be necessary but, given that the Russians keep as close an eye as possible on such things, it would have been a very strong "Don't try anything..." message in case they got any ideas.

That said, I can't see that they would deliberately try anything in the first place. They can just about manage to fight the war that they're already fighting so they'll have no desire to stir things up with the USA, militarily at least.

Can we be sure that Putin wouldn’t be prepared to go for a siege-mentality, spirit of Stalingrad situation? If the USA starts genuinely looking hostile, he might be able to rally the less than enthusiastic part of the population that is young enough to fight or old enough to die.

 

[ainsworth74]

Pretty sure that communications through TACAMO aren't exclusively used for ordering nuclear strikes.

Sure they can do other stuff but one actually being used operationally would be a sign that something very very bad has either happened or is expected to happen. The US Military has sufficiently robust communication links that it doesn't need to use it's E-6s for anything particularly outside of their nuclear mission. It can wage litteral wars without needing to launch E-6s. Getting Biden in and out of Kyiv is fairly simple compared to the level of coordination required to pull off something like Desert Storm. You only send out an E-6, outside of a crisis or training, if you want to shake a nuclear stick.

 

[brad465]

Truss has joined in the calls to send Ukraine jets:

Ukraine war: Liz Truss joins Johnson in calling for transfer of fighter jets

The ex-PM puts pressure on Rishi Sunak as she urges the UK to "do all we can" to support Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

Liz Truss has joined growing calls for fighter jets to be sent to Ukraine, in her first speech in Parliament since resigning as prime minister.
Ms Truss said the UK needed to "do all we can, as fast as we can" to help Ukraine win the war against Russia.
The call was echoed by former PM Boris Johnson during a debate on Ukraine, putting pressure on PM Rishi Sunak.
Mr Sunak's government has agreed to train Ukrainian pilots but says supplying jets is a long-term option.
Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appealed to European leaders to supply his country with modern fighter jets during visits to the UK, France and Belgium.
The UK is to start training Ukrainian forces to fly Nato-standard jets and Mr Sunak has said "nothing is off the table".
At the Munich Security Conference last week, the prime minister urged world leaders to give Ukraine the most advanced weapons to defend itself in the long term.
But Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has said there will be no immediate transfer of UK fighter jets to Ukraine.
He told the BBC it could take months to train pilots and the UK was instead focused on using alternative provision of air cover to the country.
Some Nato member countries are also worried that giving jets to Ukraine would be viewed as escalating the war, risking direct confrontation between the Western military alliance and Russia.

In her speech to MPs in the House of Commons, Ms Truss said "we need to do all we can to make sure Ukraine wins this war as soon as possible".
She urged the UK government to work with allies to provide Ukraine with an option to use fighter jets "otherwise they will not be able to prevail".
Now a backbench Conservative MP, Ms Truss was foreign secretary when President Vladimir Putin's forces invaded Ukraine almost a year ago.
Ms Truss recalled what it was like being in government before and after the invasion was launched.
She described news of the invasion, delivered to her by a private secretary at 03:30 in the morning, as "devastating" but "not unexpected" given Western intelligence about Russia's plans.
It was Ms Truss's first contribution in the Commons as a backbench MP since 2012, when she became a minister.
Sat by her side during a general debate on Ukraine was Simon Clarke, one of the cabinet ministers in her short-lived government.

While we can't say for definite that this is a motive, it would be ironic if the UK's response is enhanced because 2 former PMs want to undermine Sunak (thinking about Johnson going to Kyiv recently despite being a backbencher with no position of authority on the matter).

 

[DustyBin]

Sure they can do other stuff but one actually being used operationally would be a sign that something very very bad has either happened or is expected to happen. The US Military has sufficiently robust communication links that it doesn't need to use it's E-6s for anything particularly outside of their nuclear mission. It can wage litteral wars without needing to launch E-6s. Getting Biden in and out of Kyiv is fairly simple compared to the level of coordination required to pull off something like Desert Storm. You only send out an E-6, outside of a crisis or training, if you want to shake a nuclear stick.

I picked one up on Flight Radar off the US coast a few days after the war began. Presumably it was training or similar, but it was a slightly unnerving sight at the time!

 

[GS250]

Interesting speech from Putin. Not so much the defiant, fist clenching type that we've seen before but more pragmatic in delivery.

 

[DarloRich]

Amazing Biden visited Ukraine - a US president entering a live war zone must be almost unheard of, certainly since Roosevelt met Churchill

 

[Parjon]

Interesting speech from Putin. Not so much the defiant, fist clenching type that we've seen before but more pragmatic in delivery.

Regardless how many times it clenches, an a-hole is still an a-hole.

 

[DustyBin]

Interesting speech from Putin. Not so much the defiant, fist clenching type that we've seen before but more pragmatic in delivery.

He really is a complete fantasist (among other things) isn’t he? I didn’t listen to the whole thing, but what I heard in regard to the war was the same old drivel. It would actually be amusing were the situation not so serious……

 

[GS250]

He really is a complete fantasist (among other things) isn’t he? I didn’t listen to the whole thing, but what I heard in regard to the war was the same old drivel. It would actually be amusing were the situation not so serious……

In respect with the current situation yes his inbuilt paranoia is clear. However at ground level he is still viewed by many Russians as being okay. Just remember in spite of the massive sanctions being posed on Russia by the West, the cost of living for average Russians remains relatively low. That's what they judge him by.

 

[ainsworth74]

Just remember in spite of the massive sanctions being posed on Russia by the West, the cost of living for average Russians remains relatively low.

Then again considering the quality of life for your average Russian that's probably not all that remarkable either.

 

[GS250]

Then again considering the quality of life for your average Russian that's probably not all that remarkable either.

Is it really that bad? I guess it depends on the metrics given for 'quality of life'.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Is it really that bad? I guess it depends on the metrics given for 'quality of life'.

Russian quality of life is pretty awful outside of the rich elites.

Can we be sure that Putin wouldn’t be prepared to go for a siege-mentality, spirit of Stalingrad situation?

Remember that Putin needs the military generals to carry out his orders. They won't go for direct conflict with the USA.