Russia invades Ukraine

[HSTEd]

Fortunately Russia only has (or had) around 1,500 troops in Transnistria so it's unlikely that they'll move to 'protect their people'.

Transnistria itself claims to possess four motor rifle brigades.

How much actual combat capability they have is unclear - but they likely have more than the Moldovan army which doesn't even have any actual tanks.

 

[ainsworth74]

Transnistria itself claims to possess four motor rifle brigades.

I mean, it seems highly unlikely that they actually have the troops and equipment to flesh out four motor rifle brigades.

but they likely have more than the Moldovan army which doesn't even have any actual tanks.

But does the Moldovan army have anti-tank missiles? Transnistria is hardly likely to have more than a few dozen tanks, at best, in which case a few dozen ATGMs will be more than sufficient to overcome that power imbalance.

I can't really foresee Transnistria mounting any kind of military action against Moldova.

 

[DustyBin]

Well it is, given that the air policing mission only requires a small handful of aircraft to be kept on alert at any given time. And beyond air policing there will be not many other credible threats once a hundred Eurofighters are flying around in Ukraine.....

You're entitled to your opinion obviously, but I strongly suspect it's a minority one. The UK has interests around the world, and a "small handful" of aircraft can't protect them. If you consider the locations in which our aircraft are currently deployed, including aboard the aircraft carriers, the F-35B fleet alone would be spread extremely thinly.

Yes, the Russian Armed Forces are bleeding to death, we need to give Ukraine whatever it needs to ensure that this continues.

Within reason yes, I agree.

That's extremely doubtful, the only significant advantage the Typhoon has over the F-35 is the Meteor, and when the MoD eventually gets around to paying for Meteor integration on the F-35, that advantage will disappear.

Superior (with Low Probability of Intercept scan modes) radar, superior datalink systems, better radar cross section......

It's not only the Meteor; the Typhoon is faster, can supercruise, has a longer range and is more manoeuvrable. These are all significant advantages when intercepting enemy aircraft, especially strategic bombers.

It's also rather telling that we struggle to even bribe people to buy the Eurofighter now, I can't remember the last time it actually won a foreign sales competition.

It's too expensive and too specialised for most countries (the French developed the Rafale as result). The F-35 family makes more sense in most cases without a doubt.

Yes, right now the VKS can stand off just outside ukrainian airspace and lob R-77 and R-37M into Ukraine.
When a Eurofighter can use a high speed missile sling to throw a Meteor to approaching 150nm, they will have to move much further back.

They will not be able to practically engage Ukrainian aircraft operating in the battle area.

It's academic, but I could imagine Ukraine being told not to shoot down Russian aircraft in Russian airspace.

Well scrapping the Typhoon and buying more F-35 would probably save us money in the long run given the much lower life cycle costs that keep winning procurement competitions for everyone who is allowed to buy the F-35.....

Are the lifecycle costs actually lower? The cost of a Typhoon to the UK isn't the same as the cost to an export customer remember....

Unless it's higher radar cross section gets it shot down.

Of course, but as the Typhoon carries the Meteor it can engage targets at extremely long range (and the F-35B isn't guaranteed to go undetected). The Typhoon can reach, engage and destroy enemy aircraft further out than an F-35B, which you'd expect as it's an interceptor. The F-35B is the most advanced multi-role aircraft on the planet but it isn't an interceptor. Again, we’re comparing apples with oranges here....

 

[Cowley]

To alleviate any further arguments the position on this forum is that Ukraine is to be called just that: Ukraine.

We’ve done that debate a few times now and it’s time to move on.

Thanks everyone.

 

[gingerheid]

Should we just ignore the Trolls?

I've made use of the "ignore" function the forum offers

 

[Simon11]

Russian soldier death rate highest since first week of war - Ukraine https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64616099

Shocking figures (also hard to tell how realistic they are) with Ukrainian data shows 824 Russian soldiers dying per day in February.

Hopefully that info gets to the Russian frontline or soon to be!

 

[Killingworth]

Russian soldier death rate highest since first week of war - Ukraine https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64616099

Shocking figures (also hard to tell how realistic they are) with Ukrainian data shows 824 Russian soldiers dying per day in February.

Hopefully that info gets to the Russian frontline or soon to be!

Those figures may be indicative but they certainly aren't accurate aa the Russians themselves may have difficulty keeping count. It's certainly true that the Russian military mindset cares little about deaths so won't admit the true figures.

Brought up on tales of the Great Patriotic War with sieges of Stalingrad and Leningrad It's deep in the national pysche, most particulatly of Putin! Stalingrad saw the most miltary casualties but the siege of Leningrad went on longer with even more civilian deaths. Putin grew up there and sees Russia still trying to break out of a continued siege.

Somehow we need to get through to ordinary Russians that the siege is implanted in their own heads and that they have imposed it upon themselves. A difficult task.

Meanwhile Ukraine is also sufferiing many casualties and that must be a big concern for Zelensky.

 

[Gloster]

A small item. Although we are at Day 354 of the invasion, The Grauniad’s Ukraine liveblog has now been running continuously for 365 days.

 

[DustyBin]

Russian soldier death rate highest since first week of war - Ukraine https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64616099

Shocking figures (also hard to tell how realistic they are) with Ukrainian data shows 824 Russian soldiers dying per day in February.

Hopefully that info gets to the Russian frontline or soon to be!

There are numerous threads and videos (I advise caution re the latter) on Twitter of the “massacre” at Vuhledar. It looks absolutely horrific from a Russian (or indeed human) perspective with tens of tanks and AFVs blown to pieces (some appear to drive into a mine field), and hundreds of troops killed, all in one attack. The figures appear to be entirely believable but probably aren’t 100% accurate.

 

[Annetts key]

The figures appear to be entirely believable but probably aren’t 100% accurate.

Regardless of where the figures come from, they will all estimates.

It’s perfectly possible that the numbers from Ukraine are an underestimation given that no one knows how bit the Russian losses are ‘behind the lines’, or due to illness etc.

Of course, it’s also possible that the estimates are more than the actual numbers.

 

[brad465]

Ben Wallace claims 97% of the Russian army is in Ukraine, which sounds very much like throwing all their eggs into one basket.

 

[Simon11]

Ben Wallace claims 97% of the Russian army is in Ukraine, which sounds very much like throwing all their eggs into one basket.

That can't be true!

Surely they need to maintain their existing defense around the country?

Surely that makes Russia an easy target if NATO or any country wanted to take over (not that it would ever happen)?

 

[najaB]

Ben Wallace claims 97% of the Russian army is in Ukraine, which sounds very much like throwing all their eggs into one basket.

I don't doubt that they are heavily invested, but if 97% of the army is in Ukraine, who's keeping the Chinese out?

 

[Killingworth]

I don't doubt that they are heavily invested, but if 97% of the army is in Ukraine, who's keeping the Chinese out?

Or all their other little involvements worldwide. Whatever, its very clear they're not all going home any time soon. How they can be persuaded to do so seems beyond the badly stretched Ukrainian forces.

 

[Parjon]

I don't doubt that they are heavily invested, but if 97% of the army is in Ukraine, who's keeping the Chinese out?

Interesting commentary in the NYPost today suggesting the recent balloons are a prelude to war due to the locations they've been surveying.

Not beyond possibility that Taiwan Xi encouraged Vlad the Mad back in 2022, and would explain why they've been happy to sit back and watch the war rage on.

The USA and Europe expends arms defending Ukraine.
Russia exhausts itself before imploding.
China chooses its moment to attack Taiwan
And either:
A) they think they can threaten the US to stay out of it
B) they attack the USA in the event of intervention or
C) they attack the USA at the same time as Taiwan.

The best defence to this is to be resolute on Ukraine and show that violent bullying will never be allowed to win, regardless of cost. And that a world in which humanity is defined as a violent species isn't going to be allowed to come to fruition, regardless of outcome.

 

[ainsworth74]

The figures appear to be entirely believable but probably aren’t 100% accurate

I've been mentally halving all the Ukrainian estimates to try and account for optimism/propaganda/fog of war effects. Even doing that the Russian losses have been incredible...

 

[najaB]

The USA and Europe expends arms defending Ukraine.
Russia exhausts itself before imploding.
China chooses its moment to attack Taiwan
And either:
A) they think they can threaten the US to stay out of it
B) they attack the USA in the event of intervention or
C) they attack the USA at the same time as Taiwan.

Thing is, the weapons that the USA in particular have been supplying have been those to support a pitched land battle. There's no way that a direct conflict between the USA and China is going to feature tank brigades, so a shortage of artillery shells and anti-tank missiles isn't really going make any significant difference.

 

[DustyBin]

Interesting commentary in the NYPost today suggesting the recent balloons are a prelude to war due to the locations they've been surveying.

Not beyond possibility that Taiwan Xi encouraged Vlad the Mad back in 2022, and would explain why they've been happy to sit back and watch the war rage on.

The USA and Europe expends arms defending Ukraine.
Russia exhausts itself before imploding.
China chooses its moment to attack Taiwan
And either:
A) they think they can threaten the US to stay out of it
B) they attack the USA in the event of intervention or
C) they attack the USA at the same time as Taiwan.

The best defence to this is to be resolute on Ukraine and show that violent bullying will never be allowed to win, regardless of cost. And that a world in which humanity is defined as a violent species isn't going to be allowed to come to fruition, regardless of outcome.

Scenario A is possible, but it's a massive gamble. Scenarios B and C are suicidal, and I don't think the Chinese are that way inclined (I could be wrong!). As @najaB has pointed out, if there was some kind of elaborate strategy to deplete the West's useful war fighting capability, it's failed.

 

[najaB]

Scenario A is possible, but it's a massive gamble. Scenarios B and C are suicidal, and I don't think the Chinese are that way inclined (I could be wrong!). As @najaB has pointed out, if there was some kind of elaborate strategy to deplete the West's useful war fighting capability, it's failed.

Indeed. Any Chinese land grab is more likely to be Russia's far eastern provinces.

 

[Parjon]

Unless the plan was to encourage Mad Vlad to attack NATO or draw them in somehow. I doubt this would be a central plank of Chinese planning, but if the opportunity presented itself would they baulk at manipulating a deluded, paranoid despot to their own ends.

 

[Simon11]

Thing is, the weapons that the USA in particular have been supplying have been those to support a pitched land battle. There's no way that a direct conflict between the USA and China is going to feature tank brigades, so a shortage of artillery shells and anti-tank missiles isn't really going make any significant difference.

Plus I would suspect that the USA are keeping their factory's very busy producing new shells and missiles, which is a better place to be than one where the factory is hardly working as there is no demand and thus little trained staff/ machines?

 

[brad465]

Could this be a ploy to allow Russia to stage air force/air strike capability in Belarus, so that if Ukraine tries to take them out, like it's believed to have done at some Russian airfields within Russia, there's a ready excuse for Belarussian forces to get involved?

Lukashenko warns Belarus will join Russia in war if attacked

Alexander Lukashenko warns he is ready to wage war if one Ukrainian soldier enters Belarus.

www.bbc.co.uk

Few people know Vladimir Putin quite as well as Alexander Lukashenko does.
The authoritarian leader of Belarus is a firm Kremlin ally and backer of what Mr Putin refers to as the "special military operation" - what most of the world calls Russia's war in Ukraine.
Since his full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year ago, Mr Putin hasn't sat down with Western journalists.
But today in Minsk, Mr Lukashenko took questions from a small group of foreign media, including the BBC.
"Last year you allowed your country to be used as a staging ground for Russia's invasion," I reminded Mr Lukashenko. "Are you prepared to do so again?"
"Yes, I'm ready," he replied. "I'm ready to provide [territory] again. I'm also ready to wage war, alongside the Russians, from the territory of Belarus. But only if someone - even a single soldier - enters our territory from there (Ukraine) with weapons to kill my people."
Military co-operation between Russia and Belarus has been on the increase, with joint drills and the formation of a joint military grouping. But so far the Belarusian leader has avoided sending his troops into Ukraine to fight alongside Russian forces.
The UK, EU and the United States do not recognise Alexander Lukashenko as the legitimate president of Belarus. In 2020 Belarusians poured on to the streets to accuse him of stealing the country's presidential election. The protests were brutally suppressed.
Mr Lukashenko used Thursday's event to blame the West for the war in Ukraine.
He accused Western governments of fuelling the conflict and engaged in a touch of Putinesque nuclear sabre-rattling,
"If you continue this escalation, you will get nuclear weapons and Russia has more than anyone," he said.
"So, you should stop this. If a nuclear war starts, Belarus will cease to exist. We need to sit down at the negotiating table, because nuclear war will wipe out the USA too. No-one needs this."

Having facilitated the Russian invasion of Ukraine one year ago, the Belarusian leader now claims he can help negotiate peace.
Mr Lukashenko suggested that next week would be a good time to start, with US President Joe Biden due to visit Poland.
"I invite [President Biden] to Belarus," Mr Lukashenko said. "It's not far from Warsaw, Thirty minutes and he'll be in Minsk. He could land his plane here. I will persuade the president of Russia to come. I invite him too to Minsk, as well as Biden. We will sit down and reach an agreement."
It is an invitation the US president is likely to decline. In this war Mr Lukashenko is not seen as an honest broker.

 

[najaB]

Could this be a ploy to allow Russia to stage air force/air strike capability in Belarus, so that if Ukraine tries to take them out, like it's believed to have done at some Russian airfields within Russia, there's a ready excuse for Belarussian forces to get involved?

If Belarus was going to get involved they would have done so 11 months ago when a Russian victory was seen as a sure thing, rather than 100,000 Russian casualties later.

 

[GusB]

If Belarus was going to get involved they would have done so 11 months ago when a Russian victory was seen as a sure thing, rather than 100,000 Russian casualties later.

Lukasheko is in an awkward spot anyway - getting involved in the war might just be the last straw for his population.

 

[Killingworth]

Could this be a ploy to allow Russia to stage air force/air strike capability in Belarus, so that if Ukraine tries to take them out, like it's believed to have done at some Russian airfields within Russia, there's a ready excuse for Belarussian forces to get involved?

Lukashenko warns Belarus will join Russia in war if attacked

Alexander Lukashenko warns he is ready to wage war if one Ukrainian soldier enters Belarus.

www.bbc.co.uk

It certainly could be advance warning of false flag operations to give apparent cause to reopen a northern front. It's approaching make or break time. Putin isn’t for giving in and Ukraine cant afford to either.

 

[DustyBin]

I completely agree with the posts above. Whilst what @brad465 suggested is entirely feasible, I think it's equally possible that Lukashenko is simply reiterating that he has no desire to get more deeply involved in this mess than he already is.

 

[gingerheid]

As is always the case with Ruscists it's a strange pronouncement that tries to build around a huge lie; in this case that they have not already joined the war. If you allow people to wage war from your land then you have.

 

[DustyBin]

As is always the case with Ruscists it's a strange pronouncement that tries to build around a huge lie; in this case that they have not already joined the war. If you allow people to wage war from your land then you have.

I agree with this too. Lukashenko has already made Belarus a legitimate target by providing Putin with a staging post. Whether he had much say in it is another matter, but when you dance with the devil....

 

[gingerheid]

I agree with this too. Lukashenko has already made Belarus a legitimate target by providing Putin with a staging post. Whether he had much say in it is another matter, but when you dance with the devil....

Quite. The most successfully invaded territory in this war got the least publicity; for that would be Belarus'. We can't say it's either completely a puppet state or completely a sovereign country, but it's become much much more of one than it was before.

 

[Gloster]

Another Russian official has died from a fall from a window, although this time it was a sixteenth-floor one: Marina Yankina had been responsible for providing funds for the invasion. Earlier this week a general who had lead a crackdown on opposition activists had shot himself after being sacked.

(The Telegraph via my yahoo news feed.)

Lukasheko is in an awkward spot anyway - getting involved in the war might just be the last straw for his population.

Very much so. If he does join Putin he is likely to find that the people may finally take to the streets and he probably has doubts about whether the army would put down any such display. One wonders if he will have such a Ceausescu-moment. If he doesn’t jump at Putin’s call, he might find himself falling from a sixth-floor widow.