Russia invades Ukraine

[Cloud Strife]

The USSR perhaps made the same mistakes that the UK made in drawing lines on maps that didn't take into account the people who lived there

To swing back to the Russia-Ukraine issue, this is exactly the problem with Crimea. It's actually fair and reasonable to say that the USSR should never have put Crimea in the Ukrainian SSR, because it simply didn't belong there ethnically and linguistically. The Donbas on the other hand is undeniably Ukrainian, with the situation prior to 2014 being the result of what we would now call ethnic cleansing.

I bet part of the reasons the Russian army seem to be getting so demoralised is that they are ending up being attacked with the same kit they were using against them only recently.

For sure. It's now becoming clear that Ukraine is hitting Russian forces constantly, and they are quite content to play a waiting game by simply attacking Russian forces constantly until an opportunity presents itself.

The big question today regards Lyman. The Ukrainians appear not to have the strength to take Lyman, and their attacks so far are being repelled. There is a question here as to whether Ukraine is genuinely trying to take Lyman, or whether it's yet another big bluff which is concealing something else. Some commentators suggest that Ukraine is content to sit and wait with Lyman, because they're able to prevent Russia from resupplying the Russian forces inside Lyman anyway.

On the other hand, Bakhmut is apparently coming under severe pressure from the Russian side. It's not as big a deal as it was two weeks ago, but it would still be a big loss.

The other ridiculous thing: it seems confirmed now that Russia is looking for soldiers among prisoners. What do they really think is going to happen if they start sending criminals into their war machine? I cannot see them doing anything other than immediately deserting, especially if Ukraine offers them amnesty for doing so.

 

[Roast Veg]

I bet part of the reasons the Russian army seem to be getting so demoralised is that they are ending up being attacked with the same kit they were using against them only recently.

Not to linger on this point for long, but I think the wider issue is that the concept of a Russian "victory" is constantly shifting and unclear, meaning that there's nothing to get "moralised" about in the first place.

 

[TheEdge]

Today in Ukraine we've got the traditional discovery of yet another massacre, mass graves and warcrimes discovered in liberated areas. No doubt the Russians will claim it was Ukrainian partisans.

Ukraine war: Hundreds of graves found in liberated Izyum city - officials

More than 400 bodies are thought to be on a site in the city which Russia occupied, officials say.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine says a mass burial site has been found outside Izyum, days after the town was re-taken from Russia.

Hundreds of wooden crosses, most of them marked with numbers, were discovered in a forest outside the town by advancing Ukrainian forces.

 

[Yew]

Today in Ukraine we've got the traditional discovery of yet another massacre, mass graves and warcrimes discovered in liberated areas. No doubt the Russians will claim it was Ukrainian partisans.

Ukraine war: Hundreds of graves found in liberated Izyum city - officials

More than 400 bodies are thought to be on a site in the city which Russia occupied, officials say.

www.bbc.co.uk

What is the point of international law if there are no consequences for breaking it?

 

[Broucek]

What is the point of international law if there are no consequences for breaking it?

If a nation deviates then I guess the only remedies are military or sanctions

 

[Cloud Strife]

Not to linger on this point for long, but I think the wider issue is that the concept of a Russian "victory" is constantly shifting and unclear, meaning that there's nothing to get "moralised" about in the first place.

At this point, a Russian victory will be holding onto the territory that they held before February 24th. Ukrainian morale is high, their air defences are constantly improving, and with the US military-industrial machine eagerly ramping up production, there's absolutely no reason for Ukraine to stop until they've liberated the so-called "LDPR" along with all the other territories. There's also the frightening (for Russia) possibility that Ukraine will pound Crimea and take out the Kerch Bridge, leaving them in an even worse position than before they started. That's before we even discuss the problem of logistics - Crimea will have water issues, they'll have transport issues, they'll have security issues.

I just wonder at what point the Russians will say 'enough' and Putin will meet his bloody end. Crimea being threatened with a land invasion would surely be the tipping point there.

 

[najaB]

What is the point of international law if there are no consequences for breaking it?

There are no consequences - yet. Most of the Nazis kept their necks intact until the Nuremburg Trials.

 

[TheEdge]

There are no consequences - yet. Most of the Nazis kept their necks intact until the Nuremburg Trials.

Difference is that was a total war situation where occupation forces in Berlin and Tokyo could quite literally go and drag the suspected into the dock.

Sadly no one is going to be dragging Vlad out the Kremlin into the Hague. Pushing him out of a window though remains an internal option...

 

[DustyBin]

Today in Ukraine we've got the traditional discovery of yet another massacre, mass graves and warcrimes discovered in liberated areas. No doubt the Russians will claim it was Ukrainian partisans.

Ukraine war: Hundreds of graves found in liberated Izyum city - officials

More than 400 bodies are thought to be on a site in the city which Russia occupied, officials say.

www.bbc.co.uk

It raises the question of what they'll find in Mariupol when they (hopefully) liberate what's left of it.... I fear it will be absolutely horrific.

 

[najaB]

Difference is that was a total war situation where occupation forces in Berlin and Tokyo could quite literally go and drag the suspected into the dock.

That is true. However I can well see handing over the generals as a condition of relaxing sanctions.

Sadly no one is going to be dragging Vlad out the Kremlin into the Hague. Pushing him out of a window though remains an internal option...

We may well help hold the window open.

 

[DustyBin]

I don't think is being widely reported (and is only tenuously on topic!) but there are now border clashes between Tajikistan and Kirgizistan:

Kyrgyzstan reports heavy fighting with Tajikistan, 24 people killed

Kyrgyzstan reported "intense battles" with Central Asian neighbour Tajikistan on Friday and said 24 people had been killed in the latest outbreak of violence to hit the former Soviet Union.

www.reuters.com

BISHKEK, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Kyrgyzstan accused Tajikistan of fresh shelling late on Friday despite a ceasefire deal reached by the two countries' presidents, as a deadly border conflict forced thousands of people to evacuate.

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov and his Tajik counterpart Emomali Rakhmon agreed to order a ceasefire and troop pullback in a meeting in Uzbekistan on Friday, the Kyrgyz president's office said.

The former Soviet republics, both of which are Russia's allies, earlier accused each other of restarting fighting in a disputed area that has left at least three dead and dozens wounded.

The ceasefire was set to take effect from 16.00 local time (10.00 GMT), Kyrgyz border guards said in a statement. Tajik authorities confirmed that the agreement had been reached.

The Kyrgyz side, however, said two of its villages were shelled again after the agreement took effect.

Earlier on Friday, Moscow urged a cessation of hostilities.

Kyrgyzstan has said that Tajik forces using tanks, armoured personnel carriers and mortars entered at least one Kyrgyz village and shelled the airport of the Kyrgyz town of Batken and adjacent areas.

About 18,500 people have already left the area, Russia's RIA news agency cited the Red Cross as saying.

In turn, Tajikistan accused Kyrgyz forces of shelling an outpost and seven villages with "heavy weaponry" in the same area, which is famous for its jigsaw-puzzle political and ethnic geography and became the site of similar hostilities last year, also nearly leading to a war.

A civilian was killed and three injured, authorities in the Tajik city of Isfara said. Two Tajik border guards were killed earlier this week.

Kyrgyzstan reported one dead and 55 wounded on Friday in its southern Batken province which borders Tajikistan's northern Sughd region and features a Tajik exclave, Vorukh, a key hotspot in recent conflicts.

Japarov and Rakhmon both attended a regional security and cooperation summit in Uzbekistan on Friday. Neither mentioned the conflict in their speeches at the event where Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leaders were present.

Clashes over the poorly demarcated border are frequent, but usually de-escalate quickly.

Border issues in Central Asia stem to a large extent from the Soviet era when Moscow tried to divide the region between ethnic groups whose settlements were often located amidst those of other ethnicities.

Both countries host Russian military bases.

Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace focussing on Central Asia, said the remote, agricultural villages at the centre of the dispute are not economically significant, but that both sides have given it an exaggerated political significance.

Umarov said that governments in both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have come to rely on what he called "populist, nationalist rhetoric" that made an exchange of territory aimed at ending the conflict impossible.

Another Central Asia analyst, Alexander Knyazev, said the sides showed no will to resolve the conflict peacefully and the mutual territorial claims provoked aggressive attitudes on all levels.

He said only third-party peacekeepers could prevent further conflicts by establishing a demilitarised zone in the area.

This appears to be another example of "lines on maps" and there are clearly historical tensions, but it raises the question of whether what we're seeing is symptomatic of rapidly waning Russian influence in the area....

 

[najaB]

This appears to be another example of "lines on maps" and there are clearly historical tensions, but it raises the question of whether what we're seeing is symptomatic of rapidly waning Russian influence in the area....

Oh, without a doubt. There are any number of frozen conflicts which have only remained so because Russia has had a strong enough reputation to prevent things from kicking off. Now they appear to be nothing but a Potemkin army.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

To swing back to the Russia-Ukraine issue, this is exactly the problem with Crimea. It's actually fair and reasonable to say that the USSR should never have put Crimea in the Ukrainian SSR, because it simply didn't belong there ethnically and linguistically. The Donbas on the other hand is undeniably Ukrainian, with the situation prior to 2014 being the result of what we would now call ethnic cleansing.

Your assessment of Crimea is somewhat simplistic.

The ethnic composition of Crimea has varied widely over the last 250 years or so. Unsurprisingly under the Ottomans Turks were present in numbers though perhaps the longest standing ethnic group was the Crimean Tartars. That changed in the Soviet era, initially through Russians being moved in to support the Russian navy base in Sevastopol, and most dramatically in WW2 when Stalin decided that said Tartars were a security risk and had them all forcibly removed with Russian replacements being equally forcibly relocated. Some Ukrainians have always lived in Crimea without being the dominant group. In post Soviet times some Tartars returned. In short Crimea has rarely had a single ethnic identity.

There is also a significant practical issue. Crimea itself has a limited local water supply and the size of the modern population makes it necessary that additional water be supplied from elsewhere. The long-standing solution to this issue is the North Crimean Canal which runs from the Dnipro river at the lower end of the Kakhovka reservoir across the southernmost part of Kherson oblast and onto Crimea itself. This makes Crimea highly dependent on what has long been part of Ukraine and indeed until Russia's annexation obtained 85% of its fresh water from this source. Not surprisingly Ukraine subsequently shut down that supply leading to regular outbreaks of water rationing in Crimea especially in Sevastopol. It is little wonder then that Russia was so keen to capture Kherson and it would be very difficult for Crimea's future to be separated from that of Kherson.

Today in Ukraine we've got the traditional discovery of yet another massacre, mass graves and warcrimes discovered in liberated areas. No doubt the Russians will claim it was Ukrainian partisans.

Ukraine war: Hundreds of graves found in liberated Izyum city - officials

More than 400 bodies are thought to be on a site in the city which Russia occupied, officials say.

www.bbc.co.uk

Whilst there is little doubt that atrocities have been committed by occupying Russian forces in Izyum it's also likely that some of the discovered bodies amount to the inevitable collateral damage that occurs in war, in particular hospital patients whose treatment could not be continued. Be careful in assessing such stories, Ukraine is not averse to using a little propaganda in these situations.

 

[ainsworth74]

Whilst there is little doubt that atrocities have been committed by occupying Russian forces in Izyum it's also likely that some of the discovered bodies amount to the inevitable collateral damage that occurs in war, in particular hospital patients whose treatment could not be continued. Be careful in assessing such stories, Ukraine is not averse to using a little propaganda in these situations.

Though of course even if they weren't killed deliberately because of who they were they would still be alive if not for Russia's invasion. Perhaps it's a different level of culpability to executing POWs (which is another group apparently in that grave site) but it's still blood on Russian hands and a crime or at least should be at any rate.

 

[najaB]

Though of course even if they weren't killed deliberately because of who they were they would still be alive if not for Russia's invasion.

Which is consistent with the concept of felony murder - that if someone dies as a result of you committing a crime then you are guilty of their murder, even if you didn't intend to kill them.

 

[Annetts key]

So really, another way to look at it, is how many would have died in a Ukrainian village/town/city during a normal year, compared to how many died during this year.

I suspect the difference is rather large…

 

[Cloud Strife]

Your assessment of Crimea is somewhat simplistic.

Simplistic, but factual. Ukraine, generally speaking, does not have a strong claim to Crimea historically. In fact, one of the major issues with Crimea after 1991 was the failure to grant substantial amount of autonomy despite a clear majority that didn't really feel at ease under Kyiv's rule.

I don't know what the answer was/is, but should Crimea fall to Ukraine in this war, then I would expect a substantial amount of ethnic Russians to leave and for it to become dominated by Ukrainians. I don't see any future in which Crimea under Kyiv remains majority Russian.

There is also a significant practical issue.

Indeed, the occupation of Kherson was and is largely about that water supply. Once Ukraine shut off the supply, Russia was in serious trouble in Crimea.

Oh, without a doubt. There are any number of frozen conflicts which have only remained so because Russia has had a strong enough reputation to prevent things from kicking off. Now they appear to be nothing but a Potemkin army.

I would keep an eye out for Transnistria next. If Kherson is liberated, I wouldn't be shocked if Moldova and Ukraine launch a joint attack that likely won't meet any resistance. The Transnistrian government knows fine well that they won't last ten minutes if Ukraine attacks, and the Russan troops in Transnistria would be likely to surrender quickly.

 

[gingerheid]

Putin's tone with China is interesting and illuminating. This was a war Russia started in order to assert it's self asserted "rightful" status in the world, but it's made it quite clear that this status is somewhat under China's!

Also, I had worried before that all Ukraine was doing was losing heroically slowly. That seems to be changing, and I hope it can be maintained!

 

[Cloud Strife]

Also, I had worried before that all Ukraine was doing was losing heroically slowly. That seems to be changing, and I hope it can be maintained!

I just can't see where any renewed Russian push would come from. There's an excellent analysis here: https://kyivindependent.com/nationa...-operation-ukraine-turns-the-war-in-its-favor - with this quote:

The Kremlin continues its meaningless, unsuccessful attacks near Bakhmut and Donetsk, refusing to redeploy those forces to mitigate possible new Ukrainian advances across the Oskil River or Kherson. At the same time, it can't afford to compromise its Kherson defenses for the sake of the Oskil River area.

I suspect that the attacks near Bakhmut and Donetsk are simply about trying to protect Donetsk City.

 

[DustyBin]

Putin's tone with China is interesting and illuminating. This was a war Russia started in order to assert it's self asserted "rightful" status in the world, but it's made it quite clear that this status is somewhat under China's!

I agree. This was supposed to be “Operation Desert Stormsky”, a show of overwhelming military force with Russia saying to the West (and China) “we can do it to”. Instead all it has done is demonstrate the gulf in military capability between the West and Russia, with the gulf being considerably wider than most people could have imagined.

If ever there was any doubt as to who was the junior partner in Sino-Russian relations it’s been incontrovertibly removed.

Also, I had worried before that all Ukraine was doing was losing heroically slowly. That seems to be changing, and I hope it can be maintained!

Interestingly Putin is now saying that any attack on Russia will result in a “more serious” response. It’s obvious who this is aimed at, so the fact he’s even saying it shows just how dire the situation is. A Ukrainian attack would have been unthinkable at the start of the war (or probably even a few weeks ago!).

 

[Annetts key]

Interestingly Putin is now saying that any attack on Russia will result in a “more serious” response.

He’s a bit late, there has already been various, err, incidents on Russian territory (not including Crimea). And even if he did decide that another incident on Russian territory was an attack, short of the use of nuclear weapons, how could it get any worse for Ukraine? What does Russia actually have that would have any serious effect? They have already thrown every conventional weapon (apart from gas) at Ukraine.

Although Ukraine would love to kick the Russian forces out before the winter, I’m not sure that’s practical. But with the continued support that Ukraine is getting, I think they may manage to at least get back to a similar situation as in January of this year (2022) within 12 to 18 months.

Of course, it is possible that there will be further dramatic collapses of Russian lines resulting in further routs. If/when this happens, it could have an even wider effect on Russia and Russian forces. Especially if Russia finds that it has problems elsewhere that need an increase in troops…

On the subject of Crimea, the Ukrainian attacks on the airfield definitely spooked the Russian military as well as the tourists in the area!

Even though Russia would never admit to it, if/when Ukraine regain the southern area, you are likely to see rather a lot of Russians leaving, because they don’t think that it would be defendable. Especially if Ukraine can seriously damage the Kerch straights railway and road bridges.

 

[DustyBin]

He’s a bit late, there has already been various, err, incidents on Russian territory (not including Crimea). And even if he did decide that another incident on Russian territory was an attack, short of the use of nuclear weapons, how could it get any worse for Ukraine? What does Russia actually have that would have any serious effect? They have already thrown every conventional weapon (apart from gas) at Ukraine.

Although Ukraine would love to kick the Russian forces out before the winter, I’m not sure that’s practical. But with the continued support that Ukraine is getting, I think they may manage to at least get back to a similar situation as in January of this year (2022) within 12 to 18 months.

Of course, it is possible that there will be further dramatic collapses of Russian lines resulting in further routs. If/when this happens, it could have an even wider effect on Russia and Russian forces. Especially if Russia finds that it has problems elsewhere that need an increase in troops…

On the subject of Crimea, the Ukrainian attacks on the airfield definitely spooked the Russian military as well as the tourists in the area!

Even though Russia would never admit to it, if/when Ukraine regain the southern area, you are likely to see rather a lot of Russians leaving, because they don’t think that it would be defendable. Especially if Ukraine can seriously damage the Kerch straights railway and road bridges.

Correct, in reality they’ve been hitting targets over the border for months now.

I think the war is in a very unpredictable phase. One thing’s for sure though, it’s not going well for Russia and I can’t see them turning it around.

 

[gingerheid]

Interestingly Putin is now saying that any attack on Russia will result in a “more serious” response. It’s obvious who this is aimed at, so the fact he’s even saying it shows just how dire the situation is. A Ukrainian attack would have been unthinkable at the start of the war (or probably even a few weeks ago!).

In the Kremlin worldview the weapons are still ours after we hand them over, so to their mind they will also be warning us not to hand over weapons capable of hitting Russia.

 

[Pete_uk]

All good news!

There are more gains today, Russian troops falling back!

 

[brad465]

All good news!

There are more gains today, Russian troops falling back!

Where's this being reported?

 

[Cloud Strife]

Where's this being reported?

There are more Ukrainian gains, but nothing major, just villages and small towns. There's quite a lot of local action going on, some villages are changing hands in both directions, but in general, nothing major is happening.

Russian forces have been firing in Kherson, but most people are saying it's either friendly fire or propaganda.

 

[najaB]

Russian forces have been firing in Kherson, but most people are saying it's either friendly fire or propaganda.

I've seen video of it and it appears to be quite intense for propaganda purposes. The 'official' word is that it's the army taking out Ukrainian saboteurs, but it appears to be Wagner group fighting the regular Russian army.

 

[Annetts key]

If the Wagner group are fighting the regular Russian army, or one group of the Russian army is fighting another part of the Russian forces, let’s hope it speeds up the total collapse of the Russian forces.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I've seen video of it and it appears to be quite intense for propaganda purposes. The 'official' word is that it's the army taking out Ukrainian saboteurs, but it appears to be Wagner group fighting the regular Russian army.

Yes, the video left me quite shaken. I can't explain exactly why, but it was something with the working traffic lights. It just seemed rather surreal!

It seems impossible to believe that Russian forces fired on each other, but then again, who would have thought that Ukraine would be in this position after six months of war?

The video in question, showing Russian forces firing in the centre of Kherson:

 

[najaB]

Some reports coming through that Ukrainian troops may be in Lysychansk already...