Russia invades Ukraine

[Shrop]

Agree with this.

Sadly though...we ARE dependant on China. As are most other countries. Still think they will ultimately have a big part to play in the outcome of this absolute fiasco.

The position of China is crucial, and they seem to be swinging a bit. It was reported this morning that since many UK football matches are today going to show solidarity with Ukraine, then China will be refusing to broadcast them, which suggests a worrying leaning towards Russia.

On the other hand, China has huge economic links with Germany. They are dependent on the Germans for a lot of their technology, and the publicity that follows from that. I witnessed a prime example of this when seeing their Maglev in Shanghai, and I learned from Chinese people there that this was just one example of a big symbiosis. The Germans can develop their technology on the ground in China with a lot less resistance then they get from environmentalists in Germany, and meanwhile the Chinese get good publicity because that's where the technology is actually there to see and experience. Okay, this is a rail forum and therefore some people don't have much time for Maglev, but it was nevertheless the fastest operating passenger train in the world when it was opened two decades ago, and it still is today. And it's just one example of German technology in China.

So since the Germans presently have a lot of sympathy with Ukraine, then the Chinese will be divided at best, and I guess would be quite hesitant about offering wholesale support for Russia. Plus, throughout history the Russians and the Chinese haven't exactly been close, and the Chinese also have many links with other countries that are sympathising with Ukraine.

But of course the Chinese are desperate to annex Taiwan, which gives them an objective not unlike that of Putin. It will be interesting to see where they go on this, hopefully at least in the direction of peace, and a better way forward than the present method of invasions and the associated horrors.

 

[brad465]

Russia is still pumping huge amounts of gas into Europe everyday since this war and you can be sure they are getting paid for it so NATO and its allies could do a lot more. They won't as its would cause prices to rise even more but also would result in shortages in a matter of weeks which would have huge economic consequences and potential civil disorder issues in some countries. The UK are fortunate enough not to have got in deep with Russian gas or oil so we can deal with it at the supply level of course the economic consequences are another matter.

Yes during past World Wars it's been possible for economies to rapidly change the nature of the economy from civil to military based in a matter of months. Also during 2008, rapid mobilisation of bank bailouts was deployed, and in 2020 rapid action towards certain facilities in the covid response (e.g. testing and PPE capabilities, temporary hospitals, etc.), were deployed in countries around the world.

Therefore, its entirely possible for those relying on Russian commodities to rapidly find alternatives in a matter of months, with the right planning and delivery. If anything the next 6-7 months are the best months to do it as its the warmer time of year, so gas is less in demand anyway. The International Energy Agency earlier this week set out a plan to reduce Europe's imports within a year by 1/3, while stating with some trade-offs, the reduction can be harder and faster.


Staying on the subject of oil and gas, perhaps a sign of resentment/mutiny to come for Putin; Russia's second-largest oil company has demanded he end the war:

Russia's second biggest oil company calls for an end to Putin's war

Russia's second largest oil company has broken ranks with President Vladimir Putin.

edition.cnn.com

Russia's second largest oil company has broken ranks with President Vladimir Putin.
Lukoil, which produces more than 2% of the world's crude oil and employs over 100,000 people, has called for an end to Russia's war in Ukraine.
The company's board of directors said in a statement to shareholders, staff and customers that it was "calling for the soonest termination of the armed conflict."

"We express our sincere empathy for all victims, who are affected by this tragedy. We strongly support a lasting ceasefire and a settlement of problems through serious negotiations and diplomacy," the board added.
Lukoil (LUKOY) chairman and CEO Vagit Alekperov is one of Russia's richest men. The majority of Lukoil's shares are owned by the former Caspian Sea oil rig worker and his deputy, Leonid Fedun, according to Reuters.
The company has operations in dozens of countries around the world and is Russia's second biggest oil company behind state-owned giant Rosneft. It now faces huge challenges as traders shun Russian crude for fear of running afoul of Western sanctions even though they do not directly target fossil fuel exports.

Lukoil shares listed in London have lost roughly 99% of their value following the invasion. Dealing in the company's stock was suspended on Thursday.
The oil giant is already facing calls for a boycott in the United States, where there are 230 Lukoil gasoline stations owned by American franchisees. Most of the service stations that carry the Lukoil brand are in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Yes during past World Wars it's been possible for economies to rapidly change the nature of the economy from civil to military based in a matter of months. Also during 2008, rapid mobilisation of bank bailouts was deployed, and in 2020 rapid action towards certain facilities in the covid response (e.g. testing and PPE capabilities, temporary hospitals, etc.), were deployed in countries around the world.

Therefore, its entirely possible for those relying on Russian commodities to rapidly find alternatives in a matter of months, with the right planning and delivery. If anything the next 6-7 months are the best months to do it as its the warmer time of year, so gas is less in demand anyway. The International Energy Agency earlier this week set out a plan to reduce Europe's imports within a year by 1/3, while stating with some trade-offs, the reduction can be harder and faster.

Hopefully this situation will see the folly of some countries (Germany, Italy and Slovakia) having vested almost there entire energy supply in Russian gas. Also the headlong dash for net zero can only be achieved at the current pace by keeping fast response gas turbines to balance the grid but that needs gas. So I believe we will see coal stations being kept open for a few years more than expected so the freight operators better be prepared to keep hauling the coal in.

 

[najaB]

So I believe we will see coal stations being kept open for a few years more than expected so the freight operators better be prepared to keep hauling the coal in.

That's entirely possible. It also will help speed the switch to alternative energy supplies.

 

[AlterEgo]

That's entirely possible. It also will help speed the switch to alternative energy supplies.

It is possible this conflict may act as an accelerant for a number of boiling frogs like that. We've seen NATO members suddenly have to get their house in order, a very sharp increase in the imperative to wean Europe off Russian fossil fuels, and even here there is now serious talk of booting out the vulgar kleptocrats which have helped ruin our capital city and make it unaffordable for people.

 

[Iskra]

I am beginning to think the convoy to Kyiv could just have been a feint while Russia secures the East - Putin's main target (my assumption).

 

[brad465]

Hopefully this situation will see the folly of some countries (Germany, Italy and Slovakia) having vested almost there entire energy supply in Russian gas. Also the headlong dash for net zero can only be achieved at the current pace by keeping fast response gas turbines to balance the grid but that needs gas. So I believe we will see coal stations being kept open for a few years more than expected so the freight operators better be prepared to keep hauling the coal in.

The IEA's plan talked about turbo driving renewables as a means to get Russian imports down by 1/3, along with more LNG imports, while going harder faster would mean a temporary increase in coal consumption, if this is even possible. What doesn't help Germany is they set course to phase out their nuclear power stations after Fukushima.

Renewables will be a long term dominator, particularly as they're cost competitive (Australia is having to close coal plants early because they're no longer set to be competitive with solar and wind).

I am beginning to think the convoy to Kyiv could just have been a feint while Russia secures the East - Putin's main target (my assumption).

I'm sure those in the convoy will love being thrown under a bus like that.

 

[Iskra]

I'm sure those in the convoy will love being thrown under a bus like that.

Putin isn't bothered. The entire Russian people are being thrown under the bus, while Putin and his inner circle have stolen more than enough from the Russian people over the years to comfortably ride out the storm.

 

[dakta]

From sky world news page circa an hour ago:

Russia calls on EU and NATO to stop arms supplies to Ukraine​

Russia's foreign ministry has called on the European Union and NATO to "stop pumping weapons" into Ukraine, Russia's RIA news agency reported.
It said Moscow was particularly worried portable anti-air Stinger missiles could end up in the hands of terrorists and pose a threat to airlines.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...updates-12541713?postid=3483401#liveblog-body

Given a bit of dramatic footage which started doing the rounds today it seems the 'terrorists' are making rather productive use of said stingers, certain 'airlines' do appear to have a cause for concern

 

[tommy2215]

From sky world news page circa an hour ago:



Given a bit of dramatic footage which started doing the rounds today it seems the 'terrorists' are making rather productive use of said stingers, certain 'airlines' do appear to have a cause for concern

If they withdraw from Ukraine and I'm sure NATO would be delighted to.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

"It said Moscow was particularly worried portable anti-air Stinger missiles could end up in the hands of terrorists and pose a threat to airlines."

Oh the irony. Because of course terrorists wielding Russian weapons have never shot down any passenger aircraft flying over Ukraine, have they....

 

[dakta]

If they withdraw from Ukraine and I'm sure NATO would be delighted to.

I'm sure they would!

Seems the wordgames at play are in a complete different dimension to reality, but it's a moralebooster if anything for the 'terrorists'

 

[farleigh]

From sky world news page circa an hour ago:



Given a bit of dramatic footage which started doing the rounds today it seems the 'terrorists' are making rather productive use of said stingers, certain 'airlines' do appear to have a cause for concern

They don't like it up 'em

 

[brad465]

From sky world news page circa an hour ago:



Given a bit of dramatic footage which started doing the rounds today it seems the 'terrorists' are making rather productive use of said stingers, certain 'airlines' do appear to have a cause for concern

Seemingly forgetting of course that most of Europe is not permitting Russian airlines/registered planes from flying in their airspace, and also that Ukraine itself has closed its airspace to all civilian aircraft.

 

[dgl]

One of the Russian officials (can't remember which one) did appear to be asking earlier why President Zelensky was being so angry towards Russia whith his outbursts which was amusing, because attacking and invading someones country is normally met with acceptance and kind words!

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The Russians must be getting their publicity lessons from 'Comical Ali'!

 

[Garmoran]

The only sense in which he could be said to have played his part in escalation is that Putin may have viewed him as weak leader and an easy target.

I think the main reason he's performing so well as a war leader is that his motives aren't suspect, and he's a reasonably good actor

I'm not sure. I think he has shown either extreme naivety or recklessness in pursuing NATO membership. The Russians have been warning us since the Bucharest summit in 2008 that they would not countenance NATO expansion to include Georgia and Ukraine (hence Lavrov's complaints about the West listening to Russia but not hearing what they are saying). Zelenskyy is a Russian speaker from East Ukraine and I find it surprising that he would be unconscious of the paranoia of the Russian leadership over this.

Western leaders getting it wrong I can understand, although the far from diplomatic visit of our own foreign secretary on 11 February was pretty exceptional. Once again the "experts" who advise our leaders appear to have misunderstood the situation badly and once again large numbers of ordinary people are paying with their lives and homes.

Just to be clear, none of this is a good reason to invade another country, and I have been impressed by the apparent unity of the Ukrainian population, considering how divided they were not very long ago.

 

[najaB]

The Russians have been warning us since the Bucharest summit in 2008 that they would not countenance NATO expansion to include Georgia and Ukraine (hence Lavrov's complaints about the West listening to Russia but not hearing what they are saying).

I could be wrong, but 2008 was before 2014. No?

 

[BananaRepublic]

Putin has stated that the economic sanctions being taken against Russia, effectively amount to acts of war.
Again, the way he said it leaves the meaning open to speculation.

Ukraine invasion: Western sanctions 'equivalent to declaring war' Putin claims as he defends military action

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the West was engaged in "economic banditry" against Russia and that Moscow would respond.

news.sky.com

Defiant Putin warns the west: your sanctions are akin to an act of war

Ukraine told: your statehood is in doubt as Russian bombs end ceasefire in Mariupol

www.theguardian.com

Not being reported anywhere, a Russian government Il-96 aircraft has flown from St. Petersburg to Washington today, arriving a short while ago.
It could be for their diplomatic representatives, or some other reason? [edit] see post below.

Meanwhile, from observing FR24 and other tracker sites, it appears that dozens of Russian airline flights continue to operate between Russia and Caribbean and Mexican tourist destinations.

 

[Chingy]

Not being reported anywhere, a Russian government Il-96 aircraft has flown from St. Petersburg to Washington today, arriving a short while ago.
It could be for their diplomatic representatives, or some other reason?

It was reportedly to pick up some expelled, Russian Diplomats.

Russian plane leaves U.S. with expelled ‘spies’

With airspace closed to Russian aircraft, Moscow sent a diplomatic jet to Dulles to grab officials kicked out of the U.S.

www.politico.com

A mysterious Russian plane flying across the Atlantic ocean this morning that captivated Twitter watchers is headed to the United States to pick up 13 expelled Russian diplomats, according to flight tracking information and the State Department.

 

[BananaRepublic]

It was reportedly to pick up some expelled, Russian Diplomats.

Russian plane leaves U.S. with expelled ‘spies’

With airspace closed to Russian aircraft, Moscow sent a diplomatic jet to Dulles to grab officials kicked out of the U.S.

www.politico.com

Thanks.
I missed that report.

 

[Iskra]

An interesting video on the importance of logistics:

08:35 The Ukrainian defense included a recognition
08:42 of what the Russian offense seemingly missed: the importance of logistics.
08:48 In the famous words of General John J. Pershing, “Infantry wins battles, logistics wins wars.”
08:55 So, Ukraine went for Russia’s logistics. On social-media platforms adapted to organize the
09:01 country’s guerilla-style defense, posts circulated stressing the value of destroying fuel trucks. Of
09:08 course, if you stop the fuel trucks, you stop the tanks, and unlike tanks, fuel trucks are typically
09:13 unarmored and can be destroyed with cheap, accessible bullets or molotov cocktails. When
09:18 the Russians started disguising their fuel trucks to look like more traditional transport trucks,
09:23 posts and messages quickly followed making the updated target profile clear.
09:27 Ukrainian forces also destroyed two key bridges into Kyiv, allowing them to focus on defending a
09:32 smaller number of choke-points, and similar tactics were used elsewhere in the country.
09:37 The Ukrainian military also destroyed all connections between the Russian and Ukrainian
09:41 rail networks to prevent the invading force from taking hold of them to ramp up their supply lines.
09:46 Elsewhere, across the country, towns and cities dismantled their street signs or, in some cases,
09:53 painted over them to read “welcome to hell,” making it harder for Russian troops, many of which
09:57 relied solely on paper maps, to navigate around the country. Meanwhile, with the Russian military
10:03 relying nearly entirely on analogue, unsecured radio communications, amateur radio enthusiasts
10:09 and hacktivist organizations like Anonymous worked to block and surveil enemy radio frequencies–some
10:15 even went further to broadcast pig sounds, thematic music, or written messages that would
10:20 appear when analyzed on a spectrogram. Russia countered this with strategic disinformation,
10:25 purportedly spreading this post listing fake frequencies across social media, but the Ukrainian
10:30 side quickly caught on and spread the corrected frequencies across their means of communication.
10:36 Now, to experts, the Russian military’s logistics difficulties were hardly surprising...

 

[Scotrail314209]

I wonder what the outcome will be if Putin loses this war. He doesn't seem like the one to go down easily.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

An interesting video on the importance of logistics:

Good video although it says the Russian railway system was a key enabler for amassing the equipment and manpower to invade Ukraine but also that made it easier for Western intelligence to get a handle on the build up. Ukrainians then destroyed all rail connections between Russia and Belarus which looks like that wasn't in the plan.

 

[brad465]

I wonder what the outcome will be if Putin loses this war. He doesn't seem like the one to go down easily.

The same can be said for quite a few Russian leaders in years gone by, hence so many being killed in office.

 

[LOL The Irony]

I wonder what the outcome will be if Putin loses this war. He doesn't seem like the one to go down easily.

Worst case: His brain eats lead in a bloody coup
Best case: He retires

 

[tommy2215]

I'm not sure. I think he has shown either extreme naivety or recklessness in pursuing NATO membership. The Russians have been warning us since the Bucharest summit in 2008 that they would not countenance NATO expansion to include Georgia and Ukraine (hence Lavrov's complaints about the West listening to Russia but not hearing what they are saying). Zelenskyy is a Russian speaker from East Ukraine and I find it surprising that he would be unconscious of the paranoia of the Russian leadership over this.

Western leaders getting it wrong I can understand, although the far from diplomatic visit of our own foreign secretary on 11 February was pretty exceptional. Once again the "experts" who advise our leaders appear to have misunderstood the situation badly and once again large numbers of ordinary people are paying with their lives and homes.

Just to be clear, none of this is a good reason to invade another country, and I have been impressed by the apparent unity of the Ukrainian population, considering how divided they were not very long ago.

Why is it up to Russia to decide Ukraine foreign policy? Should we decide what organisations Ireland can and can't be a part of?

Putin has stated that the economic sanctions being taken against Russia, effectively amount to acts of war.
Again, the way he said it leaves the meaning open to speculation.

If you read the full speech and not just the headline, he also says "but thank god it has not come to that" right after

 

[AlterEgo]

I wonder what the outcome will be if Putin loses this war. He doesn't seem like the one to go down easily.

Putin will not lose the war. Ukraine will succumb, and the war ends at a negotiating table. Nobody actually needs Putin to "lose", we actually need to give him a way to back out of it and present it as a victory, at least just for the short term.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Mar 2022 ==

Why is it up to Russia to decide Ukraine foreign policy? Should we decide what organisations Ireland can and can't be a part of?

It is not up to Russia to decide for Ukraine - certainly not.

However, Ukraine is in a very unfortunate position. It has an aggressive, well-armed, and belligerent neighbour with whom it shares thousands of km of border. The tragedy of Ukraine is that it should not have sought to join the EU or NATO even if those were its heartfelt wishes, because doing so provoked conflict with the enormous bully next door.

Russia has been making it clear that NATO (read: the No Russia Club) should not have kept expanding eastward as far back at the 90s when Yeltsin was in power.

None of this excuses the abominable invasion or justifies Russia's irredentism but it is deeply unwise to be Russia's neighbour and act in the way Ukraine has done.

 

[yorksrob]

The position of China is crucial, and they seem to be swinging a bit. It was reported this morning that since many UK football matches are today going to show solidarity with Ukraine, then China will be refusing to broadcast them, which suggests a worrying leaning towards Russia.

On the other hand, China has huge economic links with Germany. They are dependent on the Germans for a lot of their technology, and the publicity that follows from that. I witnessed a prime example of this when seeing their Maglev in Shanghai, and I learned from Chinese people there that this was just one example of a big symbiosis. The Germans can develop their technology on the ground in China with a lot less resistance then they get from environmentalists in Germany, and meanwhile the Chinese get good publicity because that's where the technology is actually there to see and experience. Okay, this is a rail forum and therefore some people don't have much time for Maglev, but it was nevertheless the fastest operating passenger train in the world when it was opened two decades ago, and it still is today. And it's just one example of German technology in China.

So since the Germans presently have a lot of sympathy with Ukraine, then the Chinese will be divided at best, and I guess would be quite hesitant about offering wholesale support for Russia. Plus, throughout history the Russians and the Chinese haven't exactly been close, and the Chinese also have many links with other countries that are sympathising with Ukraine.

But of course the Chinese are desperate to annex Taiwan, which gives them an objective not unlike that of Putin. It will be interesting to see where they go on this, hopefully at least in the direction of peace, and a better way forward than the present method of invasions and the associated horrors.

I don't usually have much time for Communist China, but I must admit, they have a potential to be a moderating influence over Russia. I don't have much time for Xi Xing Ping, but at least he's compos mentis, which I don't think's the case with Putin.

As you say, a lot of it is tied up with their intentions with Taiwan.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Mar 2022 ==

Putin will not lose the war. Ukraine will succumb, and the war ends at a negotiating table. Nobody actually needs Putin to "lose", we actually need to give him a way to back out of it and present it as a victory, at least just for the short term.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Mar 2022 ==


It is not up to Russia to decide for Ukraine - certainly not.

However, Ukraine is in a very unfortunate position. It has an aggressive, well-armed, and belligerent neighbour with whom it shares thousands of km of border. The tragedy of Ukraine is that it should not have sought to join the EU or NATO even if those were its heartfelt wishes, because doing so provoked conflict with the enormous bully next door.

Russia has been making it clear that NATO (read: the No Russia Club) should not have kept expanding eastward as far back at the 90s when Yeltsin was in power.

None of this excuses the abominable invasion or justifies Russia's irredentism but it is deeply unwise to be Russia's neighbour and act in the way Ukraine has done.

This conflict will likely lead the West, in terms of NATO and the EU, directly butting up to Russia's border to an extent never conceived by the kremlin.

Well done Putin.

 

[najaB]

The tragedy of Ukraine is that it should not have sought to join the EU or NATO even if those were its heartfelt wishes, because doing so provoked conflict with the enormous bully next door.

So give in to the bully and let Russia decide Ukrainian's foreign policy.