Russia invades Ukraine

[brad465]

Cyberattacks incoming.

You’d have thought we’d have seen quite a few already with the current war but it appears the Russians don’t seem to have the capability we fear, in that respect.

There have been some cyber attacks aimed at Russia since the invasion began, notably from Anonymous.

I could make a comment about "buyer's remorse" and note the Russian contributions to the Conservative Party, but that might lead you to link the two.

But the UK has sectioned a few orders of magnitude fewer individuals/oligarchs than the EU and Switzerland have. My guess is Putin feels he hasn't got what he paid for so singles us out despite a less serious effort.

 

[Cdd89]

But the UK has sectioned a few orders of magnitude fewer individuals/oligarchs than the EU and Switzerland have. My guess is Putin feels he hasn't got what he paid for so singles us out despite a less serious effort

Or is trying to keep us that way (but if so, the language “final decision” is unusual …)

 

[AlterEgo]

He likes to pick of the Uk because we aren't part of a block.

We are in in bloc! NATO - a fully paid up and relatively enthusiastic founding member too. That is far, far more important to him than the EU.

Not everything is about Brexit.

 

[yorksrob]

We are in in bloc! NATO - a fully paid up and relatively enthusiastic founding member too. That is far, far more important to him than the EU.

Not everything is about Brexit.

True, in not one to overplay brexit.

It doesn't surprise me that the cretin has a particular dislike of Britain. We've done too much to secure civilisation as against banana States like Russia.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I agree. However one reading of “proportionately tough retaliatory measures” in response to our “cooperation with ultra-nationalist forces in Ukraine” is for them to start arming terrorists in the U.K.

More specifically, I’m not really sure why the U.K. is being singled out in these sanctions and activities which are being carried out by many Western counties.

Possibly because we are one of the main 'ringleaders' in re-arming Ukraine. For years we've been far more active than most European countries in terms of training and assisting their armed forces, and over the last few months, we've been at the forefront of trying to persuade the rest of Europe to impose harsh sanctions etc. in the event of war. For all the snide (and largely evidence-free) remarks people keep making about Russians allegedly buying some kind of influence with the Tories, the UK Government has been one of the most anti-Russian-aggression Governments in Europe.

 

[Gloster]

It doesn't surprise me that the cretin has a particular dislike of Britain. We've done too much to secure civilisation as against banana States like Russia.

The Russians have long memories and don’t forget that we have invaded the country several times, most recently at the end of World War I, an instance that particularly rankled. The French have also been involved a number of times, but their ability to embrace realpolitik means that their relationship is less hostile (or at least seems to be).

 

[yorkie]

For all the snide (and largely evidence-free) remarks people keep making about Russians allegedly buying some kind of influence with the Tories, the UK Government has been one of the most anti-Russian-aggression Governments in Europe.

Indeed, Twitter (which has a lot of resident misfits, who seem to spend their entire waking hours tweeting most days) has the usual far left contingent in the UK going on about how we are in cahoots with Russia, while the Russians are absolutely furious at us for supporting Ukraine. You couldn't make it up!

 

[brad465]

For all the snide (and largely evidence-free) remarks people keep making about Russians allegedly buying some kind of influence with the Tories, the UK Government has been one of the most anti-Russian-aggression Governments in Europe.

Indeed, Twitter (which has a lot of resident misfits, who seem to spend their entire waking hours tweeting most days) has the usual far left contingent in the UK going on about how we are in cahoots with Russia, while the Russians are absolutely furious at us for supporting Ukraine. You couldn't make it up!

Not according to Bloomberg when it comes to individuals sanctioned:



Also The Times have this article to provide an example of evidence of Russian influence in our Government, regarding how a key oligarch was appointed to the House of Lords by Johnson. The Times is certainly not a far-left/pro Labour paper.

Boris Johnson’s Russian crony Evgeny Lebedev got peerage after spies dropped warning

The security services withdrew an assessment that granting a peerage to a Russian businessman posed a national security risk after Boris Johnson intervened. The prime minister pushed ahead with the nomination of his friend Evgeny Lebedev, the Moscow-born son of an ex-KGB agent and media mogul, even

www.thetimes.co.uk

The security services withdrew an assessment that granting a peerage to a Russian businessman posed a national security risk after Boris Johnson intervened.

The prime minister pushed ahead with the nomination of his friend Evgeny Lebedev, the Moscow-born son of an ex-KGB agent and media mogul, even after intelligence officials raised concerns.

Continued

 

[Cdd89]

Not according to Bloomberg when it comes to individuals sanctioned:

I agree that we should (within the law) be sanctioning connected individuals to apply pressure; however, I think this is overstated in terms of its effect in agitating the Kremlin.

Many oligarchs are effectively global citizens (which is why attempts to sanction them will only be partially successful); they will always have countries that welcome them, and are likely to be more loyal to their money than Putin.

 

[yorksrob]

The Russians have long memories and don’t forget that we have invaded the country several times, most recently at the end of World War I, an instance that particularly rankled. The French have also been involved a number of times, but their ability to embrace realpolitik means that their relationship is less hostile (or at least seems to be).

We have long memories as well, so when Putin whines about being locked out of Western systems, we remember how Russia claimed to be a "normal" country, before they unleashed chemical attacks on British streets, interfered in Western elections and started a war in Europe.

We've heard it all before.

 

[najaB]

and are likely to be more loyal to their money than Putin.

That's actually the point. When they have to choose between Putin and their money... Goodbye Mr Putin.

 

[brad465]

On the military front there appears to be negotiations going on between the US and Poland to bring more US fighter jets to Poland, which would then release fighter jets to Ukraine that pilots from the latter country are capable of using:

Subscribe to the Financial Times

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on.ft.com

The US is working with Warsaw on a deal to provide Ukraine with Polish fighter jets as Kyiv ratchets up the pressure on the west to help boost its air force capabilities...

If this is agreed this would be a smart move and would further reduce the need for a no-fly zone and its associated risks, it's just a question of how Putin sees it.

 

[yorksrob]

Not according to Bloomberg when it comes to individuals sanctioned:

View attachment 111096

Also The Times have this article to provide an example of evidence of Russian influence in our Government, regarding how a key oligarch was appointed to the House of Lords by Johnson. The Times is certainly not a far-left/pro Labour paper.

Boris Johnson’s Russian crony Evgeny Lebedev got peerage after spies dropped warning

The security services withdrew an assessment that granting a peerage to a Russian businessman posed a national security risk after Boris Johnson intervened. The prime minister pushed ahead with the nomination of his friend Evgeny Lebedev, the Moscow-born son of an ex-KGB agent and media mogul, even

www.thetimes.co.uk

It's good that we have these articles.

I hope that the local MP's (who are more beholden to the local electorate than the party machine) are asking questions about this.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Mar 2022 ==

On the military front there appears to be negotiations going on between the US and Poland to bring more US fighter jets to Poland, which would then release fighter jets to Ukraine that pilots from the latter country are capable of using:

Subscribe to the Financial Times

A subscription to the Financial Times provides you with the insights and perspective you need to succeed, now.

on.ft.com

If this is agreed this would be a smart move and would further reduce the need for a no-fly zone and its associated risks, it's just a question of how Putin sees it.

Indeed. If we can't provide a no fly zone, at least give the Ukranians the means to provide their own no fly zone.

 

[DelayRepay]

I agree that we should (within the law) be sanctioning connected individuals to apply pressure; however, I think this is overstated in terms of its effect in agitating the Kremlin.

Many oligarchs are effectively global citizens (which is why attempts to sanction them will only be partially successful); they will always have countries that welcome them, and are likely to be more loyal to their money than Putin.

I think this is exactly why the sanctions are being put in place. Currently there are very few countries that welcome the oligarchs. EU countries are seizing their yachts, their planes are banned from European and US air space, and their funds are being frozen. Their companies can no longer get richer by trading with the west. They will no longer be able to buy expensive London mansions and send their children to expensive private schools in Britain.

And they know that the lifestyles they've become accustomed to are not coming back, at least for as long as Putin is in power.

These are people who probably have enough influence in Russia to bring about a change in regime. It's not a quick win and it doesn't immediately help the people of Ukraine but it might be a way of bringing about a longer term solution to this problem.

 

[AlterEgo]

Some Russian supermarkets are now imposing limits on food purchases to prevent panic buying.

 

[Caboose Class]

These are people who probably have enough influence in Russia to bring about a change in regime. It's not a quick win and it doesn't immediately help the people of Ukraine but it might be a way of bringing about a longer term solution to this problem.

There is also the fact that Putin will be 70 later this year and his Presidency ends in 2024. Also, no one has a clue who his appointed successor will be.

 

[tommy2215]

There is also the fact that Putin will be 70 later this year and his Presidency ends in 2024. Also, no one has a clue who his appointed successor will be.

He will probably just legislate to extend his term further. Nobody in the Duma going to stop him after all.

 

[simonw]

There is also the fact that Putin will be 70 later this year and his Presidency ends in 2024. Also, no one has a clue who his appointed successor will be.

The Russian constitution was recently amended to allow him to carry on standing. Prior to all Of this, he would have stood for re-election in this and the subsequent elections and I'm sure we all know the results of those future elections now.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I think this is exactly why the sanctions are being put in place. Currently there are very few countries that welcome the oligarchs. EU countries are seizing their yachts, their planes are banned from European and US air space, and their funds are being frozen. Their companies can no longer get richer by trading with the west. They will no longer be able to buy expensive London mansions and send their children to expensive private schools in Britain.

And they know that the lifestyles they've become accustomed to are not coming back, at least for as long as Putin is in power.

These are people who probably have enough influence in Russia to bring about a change in regime. It's not a quick win and it doesn't immediately help the people of Ukraine but it might be a way of bringing about a longer term solution to this problem.

Correct but Tories aren't moving on it still dragging their feet and as a result the oligarchs will be able to repatriate their ill-gotten gains which will probably be done legally with the help of the overpaid lawyers then infest London as well. When it suited them over Covid they just got the powers they wanted so just get on and do it over this. Of course they won't because its not just Russian Oligarchs that would be found out but oligarchs and crime syndicates around the world and all their other donating mates.

The Tories are ducking the issue as usual although both parties for over two decades have enabled the oligarchs

 

[Cowley]

Meanwhile, while it's the Daily Star, they're clamining US and UK spies think he has terminal bowel cancer and thus his invasion is a last ditch attempt to leave a twisted legacy

I just have a feeling that this might be wishful thinking on our part unfortunately.

There’s a fascinating bit by Alistair Campbell in this podcast on Blair and Putin meeting in about 2003.
It’s a very interesting insight into his feelings towards the UK, EU etc even back then.
The juicy stuff is about 4 minutes in but it’s worth listening to from the start:

1. Putin in person, Russian money in British politics, and Bono vs Blair

The Rest Is Politics · Episode

open.spotify.com

 

[Garmoran]

Why is it up to Russia to decide Ukraine foreign policy? Should we decide what organisations Ireland can and can't be a part of?

We shouldn't. But what would have happened if they had been more sympathetic to the Soviets and allowed them to station nuclear subs in Cork? (Hint: Cuba 1963). Ukraine's foreign policy has implications for Russian defence policy in the same way as Mexico's foreign policy has implications for the security of the US.

This conflict will likely lead the West, in terms of NATO and the EU, directly butting up to Russia's border to an extent never conceived by the kremlin.

Well done Putin.

It certainly seems that way. Our leaders and their advisers are not the only ones making major strategic mistakes. And this is unlikely to make the world any safer.

"Poking the bear".

Letting the bear into the Western world was the mistake. We shouldn't make it again.

If Russia had not been allowed to participate in so many international financial systems and integrate with world trade then the current economic warfare would not be nearly as damaging as it is going to be.

However, I suspect the that the Chinese in particular are going to be studying this closely and will be planning ways of ensuring that they have systems in place to mitigate this kind of measures if they are ever turned on them. Perhaps we and other parts of the world should be doing the same but that probably won't happen.

 

[yorksrob]

If Russia had not been allowed to participate in so many international financial systems and integrate with world trade then the current economic warfare would not be nearly as damaging as it is going to be.

However, I suspect the that the Chinese in particular are going to be studying this closely and will be planning ways of ensuring that they have systems in place to mitigate this kind of measures if they are ever turned on them. Perhaps we and other parts of the world should be doing the same but that probably won't happen.

Good points and food for thought.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Mar 2022 ==

I think I got a bit carried away last night, for which I apologize.

However, I do think we are in for a long period of non-engagement with Russia in terms of ordinary economic activity etc.

 

[43096]

There is a concerning undercurrent of a wish to “have it out with Russia once and for all” in some areas and it’s not one I think is sensible.

I’ll give you a scenario. It’s 1939, Hitler has annexed various territories and invades Poland. What would you have done (without the benefit of hindsight)?

 

[najaB]

However, I do think we are in for a long period of non-engagement with Russia in terms of ordinary economic activity etc.

That entirely depends on how Russia does or does not reform politically in the near future.

Russian people aren't so different to us and generally want the same things that we do. The problem is that we encouraged their economic modernisation (because it benefitted us) but neglected the societal, cultural and political aspects (because they are hard work).

 

[yorksrob]

That entirely depends on how Russia does or does not reform politically in the near future.

Russian people aren't so different to us and generally want the same things that we do. The problem is that we encouraged their economic modernisation (because it benefitted us) but neglected the societal, cultural and political aspects (because they are hard work).

That does indeed, but how does one change the societal, cultural and political aspects of another country ?

Ultimately, other countries in Eastern Europe changed in these ways to a lesser or greater extent of their own accord. Russia still has the same structures.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

However, I do think we are in for a long period of non-engagement with Russia in terms of ordinary economic activity etc.

The UK can afford to disengage from physical trade without too much issue but too many European countries are highly dependant on not just energy imports but food imports as well. So given time they can substitute, at a cost, from other parts of the world but this will have a knock on impact to other poorer countries who can't afford to buy what they need and that will have consequences probably in civil disorder and more movement of people to prosperous parts of the world.

So challenge here is dealing with the Ukraine problem will have an impact elsewhere which I would suggest the world isn't prepared for and not sure teh West is thinking this through here and in reality we would be better off finding a golden bridge for Putin to stabilise the global economic impact before it has a worse outcome.

 

[Shrop]

Another aspect on this thread might be to consider a bit more deeply, what we're hearing from our media and politicians. Anyone who has seen or heard clips of what the Russian media is saying will know that their people are being told a completely different story, which "the West" is saying is propaganda.
Now I'm not disputing that, and I think the Russian people should be entitled to hear whatever they want to. The fact that their Government is cutting off their people's access to stories as told by the West certainly smacks of having something to hide, such as the Russian army doing many disgraceful things and Putin being unreasonable in many ways.
BUT ... when the USA went into Iraq around 20 years ago, there were many demonstrations in many places, but the USA didn't listen or care, just as Putin doesn't care about demonstrations now. And wasn't the main motivation to go into Iraq because they were desperate for a scapegoat for 9/11, rather than because Saddam Hussein was actually intending to send nuclear bombs to America? But many of us listened to the USA then, and as a country we were far, far less outraged by those American actions than we are by today's Russian actions.
What I'm saying is that while I'm certainly against the war in Ukraine and I despise almost everything that Putin is doing, I do think "the West" isn't exactly whiter than white on this, and rather than taking the view that Putin is completely wrong in everything he does as our media tends to portray, we should at least listen to what he says. Then condemn him by all means if you still think it's justified, but at least make some attempt to consider his arguments first. After all, I think many of us were somewhat hoodwinked by Bush when he invaded Iraq.

 

[yorksrob]

The UK can afford to disengage from physical trade without too much issue but too many European countries are highly dependant on not just energy imports but food imports as well. So given time they can substitute, at a cost, from other parts of the world but this will have a knock on impact to other poorer countries who can't afford to buy what they need and that will have consequences probably in civil disorder and more movement of people to prosperous parts of the world.

So challenge here is dealing with the Ukraine problem will have an impact elsewhere which I would suggest the world isn't prepared for and not sure teh West is thinking this through here and in reality we would be better off finding a golden bridge for Putin to stabilise the global economic impact before it has a worse outcome.

I fear that any "golden bridge" would be seen as an invitation to continue or go further.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

I’ll give you a scenario. It’s 1939, Hitler has annexed various territories and invades Poland. What would you have done (without the benefit of hindsight)?

Did Hitler have several thousand nuclear weapons?

 

[AlterEgo]

I’ll give you a scenario. It’s 1939, Hitler has annexed various territories and invades Poland. What would you have done (without the benefit of hindsight)?

I don't agree that is the same premise - there were no nuclear weapons in 1939 and the risk calculus for British involvement was very much lower.

I don't agree that anyone who advocates Britain's entry into WWII but thinks we should steer clear of Ukraine 2022 is being necessarily intellectually inconsistent.