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Russia invades Ukraine

yorksrob

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Previously I'd have said we were right to be careful of letting former Soviet States joining NATO.

Now i'm inclined to think we should have done so sooner. We should have continued containing Russia, rather than enabling or to interact with the Western world.
 
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DynamicSpirit

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However, Ukraine is in a very unfortunate position. It has an aggressive, well-armed, and belligerent neighbour with whom it shares thousands of km of border. The tragedy of Ukraine is that it should not have sought to join the EU or NATO even if those were its heartfelt wishes, because doing so provoked conflict with the enormous bully next door.

Russia has been making it clear that NATO (read: the No Russia Club) should not have kept expanding eastward as far back at the 90s when Yeltsin was in power.

None of this excuses the abominable invasion or justifies Russia's irredentism but it is deeply unwise to be Russia's neighbour and act in the way Ukraine has done.

That analysis does of course presume that Ukraine's wish to join NATO/the EU is the reason Russia invaded. We don't of course know Putin's exact state of mind, but given some of the stuff he's been saying over the years, it looks at least plausible that he was mainly motivated by wanting to rebuild some kind of greater Russia, including territories like Ukraine, and the question of NATO membership was just a convenient excuse for an invasion that he was going to do anyway.
 

AlterEgo

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That analysis does of course presume that Ukraine's wish to join NATO/the EU is the reason Russia invaded. We don't of course know Putin's exact state of mind, but given some of the stuff he's been saying over the years, it looks at least plausible that he was mainly motivated by wanting to rebuild some kind of greater Russia, including territories like Ukraine, and the question of NATO membership was just a convenient excuse for an invasion that he was going to do anyway.
Whether it is the reason or not, it is certainly the pretext used. Ukraine should not be in NATO and its wish to join is understandable but unwise.

Putin has a long standing thing about Ukraine - much stronger than he has about any other former Soviet country - in that it is definitively Russian in his eyes.

I am personally quite glad Ukraine is not a NATO member, because it means we are not risking British lives over Ukraine, a country with whom we have neither quarrel nor unbreakable bond. Nothing has happened which would justify our direct involvement. *Yet*.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

So give in to the bully and let Russia decide Ukrainian's foreign policy.
That is unfortunately the way of the world for many countries. Ukraine - a victim of geography - was always destined to be a vassal state of some description if it did not declare neutrality.
 

brad465

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I don't usually have much time for Communist China, but I must admit, they have a potential to be a moderating influence over Russia. I don't have much time for Xi Xing Ping, but at least he's compos mentis, which I don't think's the case with Putin.

As you say, a lot of it is tied up with their intentions with Taiwan.
I think there's a good chance this conflict will lead Russia into becoming a vassal state to China, given how badly it's going so far and how China can exploit their weakness quite easily.

Meanwhile, while it's the Daily Star, they're clamining US and UK spies think he has terminal bowel cancer and thus his invasion is a last ditch attempt to leave a twisted legacy:


1646518340395.png
 

yorksrob

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Whether it is the reason or not, it is certainly the pretext used. Ukraine should not be in NATO and its wish to join is understandable but unwise.

Putin has a long standing thing about Ukraine - much stronger than he has about any other former Soviet country - in that it is definitively Russian in his eyes.

I am personally quite glad Ukraine is not a NATO member, because it means we are not risking British lives over Ukraine, a country with whom we have neither quarrel nor unbreakable bond. Nothing has happened which would justify our direct involvement. *Yet*.

That would have been right if Russia had been a normal country, but it's clearly a basket case and always will be.

We need to build a new iron curtain around it and arm the current NATO members to the teeth.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I think there's a good chance this conflict will lead Russia into becoming a vassal state to China, given how badly it's going so far and how China can exploit their weakness quite easily.

Meanwhile, while it's the Daily Star, they're clamining US and UK spies think he has terminal bowel cancer and thus his invasion is a last ditch attempt to leave a twisted legacy:


View attachment 111093
Hopefully soon and good riddance.
 

AlterEgo

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This conflict will likely lead the West, in terms of NATO and the EU, directly butting up to Russia's border to an extent never conceived by the kremlin.
I would bet money on that not being the case. Ukraine will not join NATO and will not join the EU.

The conflict ends when Russia’s sphere of influence is acknowledged and there are firm agreements about military installations. Russia has a big, big thing about the Soviet Union’s collapse. The Warsaw Pact was dissolved yet NATO remains and I think understanding how that addles the Russian popular psyche around security. Russia is an extremely large, hyper-diverse, inherently unstable country. It will never be a “normal country” and will always be Russia. We cannot wish it away.
 

yorksrob

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I would bet money on that not being the case. Ukraine will not join NATO and will not join the EU.

The conflict ends when Russia’s sphere of influence is acknowledged and there are firm agreements about military installations. Russia has a big, big thing about the Soviet Union’s collapse. The Warsaw Pact was dissolved yet NATO remains and I think understanding how that addles the Russian popular psyche around security. Russia is an extremely large, hyper-diverse, inherently unstable country. It will never be a “normal country” and will always be Russia. We cannot wish it away.
Finland, Poland etc.

Russia is still the enemy and needs to be contained. The only difference is that the former vassal States don't need Russia either.
 

AlterEgo

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That would have been right if Russia had been a normal country, but it's clearly a basket case and always will be.

We need to build a new iron curtain around it and arm the current NATO members to the teeth.
Exactly the kind of thinking which has proved so unhelpful in the past. Poking the bear. Naturally, as a far away country we have no fear of Russian invasion, just the odd polonium event. I’m cautious of random Brits who advocate irritating what, in foreign policy terms, is a mental patient (Russia!) knowing that whatever consequences there are won’t be visited on us first.
 

yorksrob

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Exactly the kind of thinking which has proved so unhelpful in the past. Poking the bear. Naturally, as a far away country we have no fear of Russian invasion, just the odd polonium event. I’m cautious of random Brits who advocate irritating what, in foreign policy terms, is a mental patient (Russia!) knowing that whatever consequences there are won’t be visited on us first.
"Poking the bear".

Letting the bear into the Western world was the mistake. We shouldn't make it again.
 

AlterEgo

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Finland, Poland etc.

Russia is still the enemy and needs to be contained. The only difference is that the former vassal States don't need Russia either.
Russia does not have to be an enemy. As @brad465 points out Russia is quickly falling under Chinese influence. China is extremely anti-war, compared to Russia and will exert increasingly moderating influences upon whoever is the next Russian president.
"Poking the bear".

Letting the bear into the Western world was the mistake. We shouldn't make it again.
Of course, we should stop laundering the filthy money of kleptocrats. Russia is bled dry by corruption. And the regime is disgraceful. But Russia itself does not need to be an enemy of the west. It has no ideological quarrel with us any more as it did once under communism. It does, however, use an aggressive form of statecraft which we should all condemn. Nonetheless, I am not sure NATO has a great deal of moral authority on how to handle the invasion of sovereign countries.
 

dakta

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Sky just posted a bit of an update re Visa (some may have expected or already be aware) - impact appears to be limited to cross border transfers:

Visa suspends transactions in Russia​

Visa is suspending transactions in Russia over the company days, the company has announced.
It said transactions using Visa cards issued in Russia will no longer work outside the country and any Visa cards issued by financial institutions outside of Russia will no longer work in Russia.
“We are compelled to act following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and the unacceptable events that we have witnessed,” Al Kelly, chairman and chief executive officer of Visa Inc, said in a statement.
“We regret the impact this will have on our valued colleagues, and on the clients, partners, merchants and cardholders we serve in Russia. This war and the ongoing threat to peace and stability demand we respond in line with our values.”
 

brad465

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The conflict ends when Russia’s sphere of influence is acknowledged and there are firm agreements about military installations. Russia has a big, big thing about the Soviet Union’s collapse. The Warsaw Pact was dissolved yet NATO remains and I think understanding how that addles the Russian popular psyche around security. Russia is an extremely large, hyper-diverse, inherently unstable country. It will never be a “normal country” and will always be Russia. We cannot wish it away.
Interestingly I've seen some people think that Putin's demise, and/or him being bogged down in a long guerrilla war in Ukraine after regime change, would lead to a number of other parts of Russia trying to gain independence (that admittingly I'd never heard of until recent days), because their army will be much weaker and unable to keep order in the unstable regions of Russia, which hasn't been a problem for a while.
 

AlterEgo

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Interestingly I've seen some people think that Putin's demise, and/or him being bogged down in a long guerrilla war in Ukraine after regime change, would lead to a number of other parts of Russia trying to gain independence (that admittingly I'd never heard of until recent days), because their army will be much weaker and unable to keep order in the unstable regions of Russia, which hasn't been a problem for a while.
The worst outcome for Putin is Ukraine turns into Vietnam on his doorstep. And that is the outcome we should be aiming towards. Attritional warfare and a steady stream of body bags going back to Moscow. This is exactly why British assistance to Ukraine is not in the form of troops or Typhoons but hard anti tank weaponry and urban warfare training. And quite right too.
 

najaB

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Why is it up to Russia to decide Ukraine foreign policy
It is not up to Russia to decide for Ukraine - certainly not.

So give in to the bully and let Russia decide Ukrainian's foreign policy
That is unfortunately the way of the world for many countries. Ukraine - a victim of geography - was always destined to be a vassal state of some description if it did not declare neutrality.

So is it or isn't it up to Russia to decide?
 

yorksrob

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Russia does not have to be an enemy. As @brad465 points out Russia is quickly falling under Chinese influence. China is extremely anti-war, compared to Russia and will exert increasingly moderating influences upon whoever is the next Russian president.

Of course, we should stop laundering the filthy money of kleptocrats. Russia is bled dry by corruption. And the regime is disgraceful. But Russia itself does not need to be an enemy of the west. It has no ideological quarrel with us any more as it did once under communism. It does, however, use an aggressive form of statecraft which we should all condemn. Nonetheless, I am not sure NATO has a great deal of moral authority on how to handle the invasion of sovereign countries.

We've heard it all before.

Containment is the only sensible option now.
 

AlterEgo

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So is it or isn't it up to Russia to decide?
That’s a question of morality. No, states shouldn’t dictate the policies of other sovereign nations.

That is not the same as the real life fact that very many countries are vassals of some kind - willingly or not - and dictation of many elements of their policies by a larger neighbour is a fact of life. Should it happen? Is it the bigger country’s right? No. Does it happen? Yes.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

We've heard it all before.

Containment is the only sensible option now.
Your idea of containment is to expand the no-Russia Club to encroach on Russia’s own borders further than they are already. If you think this is going to moderate Russia’s behaviour you are wrong. That is not how Russia behaves whether we like or approve of it or not.

There is a concerning undercurrent of a wish to “have it out with Russia once and for all” in some areas and it’s not one I think is sensible.
 

yorksrob

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That’s a question of morality. No, states shouldn’t dictate the policies of other sovereign nations.

That is not the same as the real life fact that very many countries are vassals of some kind - willingly or not - and dictation of many elements of their policies by a larger neighbour is a fact of life. Should it happen? Is it the bigger country’s right? No. Does it happen? Yes.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==


Your idea of containment is to expand the no-Russia Club to encroach on Russia’s own borders further than they are already. If you think this is going to moderate Russia’s behaviour you are wrong. That is not how Russia behaves whether we like or approve of it or not.

There is a concerning undercurrent of a wish to “have it out with Russia once and for all” in some areas and it’s not one I think is sensible.

No, just recognise that it's the same enemy it always was and contain it within its borders.
 

yorksrob

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What do you mean by that exactly and how will that be achieved?

Containment. Keep the sanctions, stop the KGB/FSB state from gaining a foothold in the West again. A new iron curtain.

We didn't need them then and we don't need them now.
 

Cdd89

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This is exactly why British assistance to Ukraine is not in the form of troops or Typhoons but hard anti tank weaponry and urban warfare training. And quite right too.
Our sanctions and actions have been noted by Putin, who is now threatening strong retaliatory measures:

Spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned: “Russia will not forget Britain's desire to co-operate with ultra-nationalist forces in Ukraine and the supply of British weapons to the Kyiv regime.

"The sanctions hysteria in which London plays one of the leading, if not the main, roles, leaves us no choice but to take proportionately tough retaliatory measures. London has made a final choice of open confrontation with Russia.”

What we are doing is clearly being viewed as an escalation by Russia. As above, “quite right” that we are doing them, and I’m glad they are moaning as it proves they are having an effect. But given how they are viewed, I find the line between this, and active conflict, to be a hazy one at best.
 

Scotrail314209

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Our sanctions and actions have been noted by Putin, who is now threatening strong retaliatory measures:



What we are doing is clearly being viewed as an escalation by Russia. As above, “quite right” that we are doing them, and I’m glad they are moaning as it proves they are having an effect. But given how they are viewed, I find the line between this, and active conflict, to be a hazy one at best.
Cyberattacks incoming.
 

najaB

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"The sanctions hysteria in which London plays one of the leading, if not the main, roles, leaves us no choice but to take proportionately tough retaliatory measures. London has made a final choice of open confrontation with Russia.”
So... no vodka or nesting dolls for us?
 

AlterEgo

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Cyberattacks incoming.
You’d have thought we’d have seen quite a few already with the current war but it appears the Russians don’t seem to have the capability we fear, in that respect.
Containment. Keep the sanctions, stop the KGB/FSB state from gaining a foothold in the West again. A new iron curtain.

We didn't need them then and we don't need them now.
So not expanding NATO then?
 

yorksrob

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Our sanctions and actions have been noted by Putin, who is now threatening strong retaliatory measures:



What we are doing is clearly being viewed as an escalation by Russia. As above, “quite right” that we are doing them, and I’m glad they are moaning as it proves they are having an effect. But given how they are viewed, I find the line between this, and active conflict, to be a hazy one at best.


Putin is scum, and in the absence of him doing the right thing and hanging himself, the West must look after its own interests. Russia is a malign influence, and the best the West can do is to have as little to do with it as possible.
 

Cdd89

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Putin is scum, and in the absence of him doing the right thing and hanging himself, Russia is a malign influence, and the best the West can do is to have as little to do with it as possible.
I agree. However one reading of “proportionately tough retaliatory measures” in response to our “cooperation with ultra-nationalist forces in Ukraine” is for them to start arming terrorists in the U.K.

More specifically, I’m not really sure why the U.K. is being singled out in these sanctions and activities which are being carried out by many Western counties.
 

najaB

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More specifically, I’m not really sure why the U.K. is being singled out in these sanctions and activities which are being carried out by many Western counties.
I could make a comment about "buyer's remorse" and note the Russian contributions to the Conservative Party, but that might lead you to link the two.
 

AlterEgo

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I agree. However one reading of “proportionately tough retaliatory measures” in response to our “cooperation with ultra-nationalist forces in Ukraine” is for them to start arming terrorists in the U.K.

More specifically, I’m not really sure why the U.K. is being singled out in these sanctions and activities which are being carried out by many Western counties.
Putin dislikes Britain. We live in his head rent free in the same way Putin lives in many of our heads rent free.
 

yorksrob

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I agree. However one reading of “proportionately tough retaliatory measures” in response to our “cooperation with ultra-nationalist forces in Ukraine” is for them to start arming terrorists in the U.K.

More specifically, I’m not really sure why the U.K. is being singled out in these sanctions and activities which are being carried out by many Western counties.

He likes to pick of the Uk because we aren't part of a block.


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Putin dislikes Britain. We live in his head rent free in the same way Putin lives in many of our heads rent free.

He is scum.
 
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