Russia invades Ukraine

[tommy2215]

Scale is also very important to take into consideration.
If the second largest country in Europe falls under Russia, no matter how battered the Russian military ends up, it'll certainly be a huge morale drop for smaller countries like Moldova and Georgia.

And it's also notable that Putin is very well willing to steam roll his way through its neighbouring countries.

He might well want to steam roll his way through but he would have to do it with money he hasn't got, manage a population that doesn't want him there and use Armed Forces that don't have a great track record. Its one thing to take control of a country, but a very different thing to bring stability and maintain control. Even if Ukraine does fall, the state Russia would be in after wouldn't be something Moldova or Georgia have to fear.

 

[adc82140]

Realistically, based on geography, I wouldn't be surprised if Putin marched into Moldova the moment Ukraine is even half-subdued - enough to give him any forces to spare. After conquering Ukraine, Putin will after all automatically have his army covering Moldova's entire eastern border.

One of the few things that I hope may give some long-term cause for hope is if sanctions continue to be ratcheted up, I imagine it'll become extremely hard for Russia to keep manufacturing advanced weaponry, so they may get to a point where, once they used the stuff they have, that's it (unless China starts selling them stuff). Ukraine on the other hand will be able to just keep continually topping up, provided NATO continues to supply them. If that theory works out, eventually we'll hit a point where Ukraine has weapons and Russia doesn't - and at that point, Russian forces in Ukraine are toast. We just have to hope that enough of Ukraine's army can remain intact long enough for that to happen.

Putin's troops are already in Moldova in the form of "peacekeepers" in Transnistria. Wouldn't take much for them to go on the offensive.

 

[brad465]

Realistically, based on geography, I wouldn't be surprised if Putin marched into Moldova the moment Ukraine is even half-subdued - enough to give him any forces to spare. After conquering Ukraine, Putin will after all automatically have his army covering Moldova's entire eastern border.

One of the few things that I hope may give some long-term cause for hope is if sanctions continue to be ratcheted up, I imagine it'll become extremely hard for Russia to keep manufacturing advanced weaponry, so they may get to a point where, once they used the stuff they have, that's it (unless China starts selling them stuff). Ukraine on the other hand will be able to just keep continually topping up, provided NATO continues to supply them. If that theory works out, eventually we'll hit a point where Ukraine has weapons and Russia doesn't - and at that point, Russian forces in Ukraine are toast. We just have to hope that enough of Ukraine's army can remain intact long enough for that to happen.

There are a number of voluntary sanctions being imposed by corporations, including shunning Russian commodities, and today some key supermarkets have announced they'll stop selling Russian vodka, while a number of western brands have said they'll stop selling their products in Russia. These sorts of moves are small but if enough of them happen they'll all add up, on top of state imposed sanctions.

 

[DustyBin]

This a notable point. The Russian forces are getting their backsides handed to them by an army on paper they really should have been able to subdue to short order. It's becoming quite clear when it comes to conventional warfare Russia is all bark but very poor bite. Conventional war against NATO, they'd be smashed.

Their only saving grace for Russia at the moment is Ukraine is either incapable of or struggling to do counter artillery work. NATO however would be able to deal with that in a totally different way. And that's really all Russia seems to have.

This is the point I keep making; taking on NATO is suicidal from a Russian perspective. Even Poland alone is a whole different proposition to Ukraine, it has a vastly superior military including modern western equipment.

I'll also reiterate that this isn't the Cold War, when it was pretty much accepted that overwhelming numbers of Russian/Soviet ground forces would steamroller their way across much of Europe with NATO fighting a controlled, tactical retreat until US support arrived in sufficient numbers to turn the tide. Our capabilities have moved on, seemingly a lot more so than theirs!

 

[TheEdge]

This is the point I keep making; taking on NATO is suicidal from a Russian perspective. Even Poland alone is a whole different proposition to Ukraine, it has a vastly superior military including modern western equipment.

I honestly feel at this point you'd barely need boots on the ground with the various NATO air forces doing the heavy lifting.

 

[Shrop]

This is the point I keep making; taking on NATO is suicidal from a Russian perspective. Even Poland alone is a whole different proposition to Ukraine, it has a vastly superior military including modern western equipment.

I'll also reiterate that this isn't the Cold War, when it was pretty much accepted that overwhelming numbers of Russian/Soviet ground forces would steamroller their way across much of Europe with NATO fighting a controlled, tactical retreat until US support arrived in sufficient numbers to turn the tide. Our capabilities have moved on, seemingly a lot more so than theirs!

You think Putin will take notice of this, however correct it might be? Consider what might be the action of a despot in this position. A despot has an inherent belief that they must win at all costs and never mind the consequences on other people. Therefore, if Putin was to consider the option that he might not be able to achieve his objectives, he could decide that there's no point in ruling over an unsatisfactory situation and go for the nuclear option, on the basis that he has nothing to lose. And what then? It wouldn't matter a jot that NATO could overwhelm Russia, the damage that could be done via their nuclear button could well be literally millions of lives BEFORE they could be stopped. Am I wrong?

 

[yorksrob]

You think Putin will take notice of this, however correct it might be? Consider what might be the action of a despot in this position. A despot has an inherent belief that they must win at all costs and never mind the consequences on other people. Therefore, if Putin was to consider the option that he might not be able to achieve his objectives, he could decide that there's no point in ruling over an unsatisfactory situation and go for the nuclear option, on the basis that he has nothing to lose. And what then? It wouldn't matter a jot that NATO could overwhelm Russia, the damage that could be done via their nuclear button could well be literally millions of lives BEFORE they could be stopped. Am I wrong?

Then they would be toast.

We would be too, but at least we'd have taken down the scum with us.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Apparently Sainsburys have changed how they spell Chicken Kiev to Chicken Kyiv to "stand united with the people of Ukraine".

And this helps the people of Ukraine how?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

You think Putin will take notice of this, however correct it might be? Consider what might be the action of a despot in this position. A despot has an inherent belief that they must win at all costs and never mind the consequences on other people. Therefore, if Putin was to consider the option that he might not be able to achieve his objectives, he could decide that there's no point in ruling over an unsatisfactory situation and go for the nuclear option, on the basis that he has nothing to lose. And what then? It wouldn't matter a jot that NATO could overwhelm Russia, the damage that could be done via their nuclear button could well be literally millions of lives BEFORE they could be stopped. Am I wrong?

No your not wrong which is why West needs to be very cautious here they need to give Putin a way out even if its at the expense of Ukraine in the short term. The West needs to use every covert action it can to foment an uprising in Russia the average Russian has a lot to lose here having had their way of life massively improved over the last couple of decades they risk a reversion back to bleak Soviet ways.

 

[DustyBin]

I honestly feel at this point you'd barely need boots on the ground with the various NATO air forces doing the heavy lifting.

You're probably correct.

You think Putin will take notice of this, however correct it might be? Consider what might be the action of a despot in this position. A despot has an inherent belief that they must win at all costs and never mind the consequences on other people. Therefore, if Putin was to consider the option that he might not be able to achieve his objectives, he could decide that there's no point in ruling over an unsatisfactory situation and go for the nuclear option, on the basis that he has nothing to lose. And what then? It wouldn't matter a jot that NATO could overwhelm Russia, the damage that could be done via their nuclear button could well be literally millions of lives BEFORE they could be stopped. Am I wrong?

Whilst not impossible it's a hypothetical, absolute worst case scenario and extremely unlikely to happen.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Mar 2022 ==

No your not wrong which is why West needs to be very cautious here they need to give Putin a way out even if its at the expense of Ukraine in the short term. The West needs to use every covert action it can to foment an uprising in Russia the average Russian has a lot to lose here having had their way of life massively improved over the last couple of decades they risk a reversion back to bleak Soviet ways.

Agreed, the key thing though is not to turn the average Russian against the West in the process.

 

[DanNCL]

And this helps the people of Ukraine how?

Yeah, that’s what I thought when I saw it.

 

[DustyBin]

Yeah, that’s what I thought when I saw it.

I've got to say it strikes me as rather silly, and a form of virtue signalling. Not dissimilar to banning Russian cat breeds from competitions. Just my opinion!

 

[yorksrob]

We're all into identity these days. If the Ukrainians consider it Kyiv, I'm all for calling it that.

 

[YorkshireBear]

And this helps the people of Ukraine how?

It doesn't, but Sainsbury's are hardly gonna send them some tanks are they?

 

[Ediswan]

We're all into identity these days. If the Ukrainians consider it Kyiv, I'm all for calling it that.

The dish (Chicken Kiev) appears to be of Russian origin

 

[yorksrob]

The dish (Chicken Kiev) appears to be of Russian origin

Who cares. Chicken Tikka Masala was devised in Britain, but it will always be an Indian dish.

 

[Bald Rick]

A friend of mine has just booked an air bnb in Kyiv. (Genuinely).
obviously she’s not going to make use of it, but it’s a way of getting some funds to the locals quickly. The recipient was very grateful (from her shelter).

thought that was quite smart.

 

[Loppylugs]

What a fateful night that was in January 1952 when Mr. and Mrs. Putin should have gone straight to sleep. Perhaps we can be hopeful that he suffers the same fate as his compatriot Ras-putin.

 

[Shrop]

Agreed, the key thing though is not to turn the average Russian against the West in the process.

That may be the key thing, but how do you achieve that when Russian people are constantly bombarded with stories about Ukranians being Nazis (hence justifying the Russian action), and the West being the aggressors? Russian citizens are being told that their army is only hitting military targets and not civilian targets, and that their whole action is being done to free those Ukranian citizens who don't want to be subject to the Nazi control. The Russians who discover otherwise and have protested in Moscow and other Russian cities are being arrested, and who knows what has happened to them?

So how do you get the average Russian to learn what our news is reporting to us? (assuming that our news in the UK is reasonably accurate of course). TV in the UK is saying that a significant majority of Russian citizens already believe their Government is acting correctly. Then there's today's news that many Western journalists are pulling out of Russia under threat of imprisonment for the way they're portraying things, which suggests that their population is about to be subjected to a higher proportion of their news being pro-Putin. So what makes you think the average Russian isn't already anti-West, with the numbers of them only set to increase?

 

[dgl]

That may be the key thing, but how do you achieve that when Russian people are constantly bombarded with stories about Ukranians being Nazis (hence justifying the Russian action), and the West being the aggressors? Russian citizens are being told that their army is only hitting military targets and not civilian targets, and that their whole action is being done to free those Ukranian citizens who don't want to be subject to the Nazi control. The Russians who discover otherwise and have protested in Moscow and other Russian cities are being arrested, and who knows what has happened to them?

So how do you get the average Russian to learn what our news is reporting to us? (assuming that our news in the UK is reasonably accurate of course). TV in the UK is saying that a significant majority of Russian citizens already believe their Government is acting correctly. Then there's today's news that many Western journalists are pulling out of Russia under threat of imprisonment for the way they're portraying things, which suggests that their population is about to be subjected to a higher proportion of their news being pro-Putin. So what makes you think the average Russian isn't already anti-West, with the numbers of them only set to increase?

the only option I can see for getting information in to Russia is via SW radio, exactly what we are doing for Ukraine, and this can be done from Britain, as we are using Wooferton to get the world service into Ukraine (it gets bounced of the atmosphere).

 

[Ediswan]

Who cares.

You did, in post #1483.

 

[yorkie]

It doesn't, but Sainsbury's are hardly gonna send them some tanks are they?

Exactly; the criticism is baffling.

You did, in post #1483.

I don't understand your point.

If Russians want us to spell it Kiev but Ukranains want us to spell it Kyiv, then clearly the logical course of action is to switch to Kyiv.

 

[Ediswan]

I don't understand your point.

Directed to @yorksrob, follow the links.

 

[brad465]

What a fateful night that was in January 1952 when Mr. and Mrs. Putin should have gone straight to sleep. Perhaps we can be hopeful that he suffers the same fate as his compatriot Ras-putin.

Nice to put a bit of amusing spin on the whole thing here.

 

[yorkie]

Directed to @yorksrob, follow the links.

I have but I still don't get your point; I suggest we move on, though.

 

[yorksrob]

You did, in post #1483.

I've not contradicted my point. If we decide to call Chicken Kyiv by its proper name, who cares otherwise.

I'm all for it.

You made some point about it being of Russian origin, which I pointed out made no difference.

I don't see what you're going on about.

 

[birchesgreen]

Russia bans Twitter, FB and Youtube. Hopefully a two-way ban and it'll silence all the troll farms.

 

[brad465]

If ever feeling down, Cold War Steve can perk one back up again:

https://twitter.com/Coldwar_Steve/status/1499805890119151619

 

[Iskra]

Russia bans Twitter, FB and Youtube. Hopefully a two-way ban and it'll silence all the troll farms.

The Iron Curtain has descended quickly, but presumably this could actually stoke further discontent amongst the Russian population, particularly the younger folk.

It really has become like the Cold War again, with Russia at arms length from the Western world.

 

[yorksrob]

The Iron Curtain has descended quickly, but presumably this could actually stoke further discontent amongst the Russian population, particularly the younger folk.

It really has become like the Cold War again.

It needs to be permanently.