Russia invades Ukraine

[DarloRich]

We are obliged to do many things, but whether we actually do them is another matter.

I'm not saying NATO definitely won't uphold its security guarantee, but it is...just a piece of paper at the moment. An agreement that has not been tested.

Agreed - however if the NATO alliance doesn't hold up then the entire security structure of Western Europe may as well go in the bin.

 

[najaB]

Who here will die willingly for Lativa?

Perhaps not gleefully, but we have promised that we would defend them, the same way that they have promised they will defend us.

 

[Bantamzen]

The targeting of nuclear facilities to release radiation would be self defeating. Most of the fallout would be over Russia. Last night was not a deliberate attack, but more localised fighting getting out of control. You have to wonder if the sudden cessation of fighting in the area and the aloowing of rapid deployment of firefighters came after a command from somewhere on high.

That certainly wasn't the case in 1986.

Yeah that one felt light local unit commanders running away with themselves and I'd imagine that once it filtered to more senior levels the reaction will have been along the lines of: "THEY'RE DOING WHAT?!?" [insert several swear words before, after and in the middle of sentence] and will have ordered steps to be taken to at least stop the active combat at the nuclear power plant.

I hope this was the case. Either way though this was a very serious incident, one which could have escalated far quicker than some MIGs getting shot down.

 

[Ediswan]

but that is what we are obliged to do.

Here is the actual text.

Article 5​

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.


Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm

 

[oldman]

This is the amazing Russian story from Novosti via Google Translate:

The Kyiv regime tried to provoke shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which has been occupied by the Russian military since February 28, Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov told reporters.
"However, last night, on the territory adjacent to the power plant, the Kiev nationalist regime attempted to implement a monstrous provocation. On March 4, at about 2 a.m., while patrolling the protected area adjacent to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, a mobile patrol of the National Guard was attacked by a Ukrainian sabotage group." - he said.
The representative of the department noted that on February 28, the Russian Armed Forces took control of the city of Enerhodar, the station itself, whose employees continued their planned work, and the surrounding area. The soldiers of the Ukrainian National Guard guarding the nuclear power plant left the facility even before the arrival of Russian troops.

Strange they never mentioned they had captured the station nearly a week ago, and yesterday's papers were reporting Ukrainian efforts to defend it.

 

[DustyBin]

When all this started a week ago, there were many posts stating that it won't spread outside Ukraine, it won't turn into WW3, it won't turn Nuclear etc.

It will be interesting to hear if anyone has changed their thoughts on how far they think this will escalate now we are a week in and have witnessed the barbaric actions we have all seen etc.

BBC News published a good article earlier setting out five possible ways this could end; it’s worth a look. There’s no good outcome (the fall of the Putin regime is as close as it gets) but I still think a wider European conflict is extremely unlikely.

Some people seem to be stuck in the Cold War era and have visions of thousands of Russian tanks bulldozing their way across Europe. I’ve even seen comments (not on here) along the lines of “now he’s on a roll blah blah blah”. What “roll” would that be? Getting bogged down in messy and highly damaging conflict with your smaller, apparently much less capable neighbour having thought you’d waltz in more-or-less unopposed?

I’m not downplaying the seriousness of the situation here but some people are racing ahead of themselves IMO.

 

[Bantamzen]

This is the amazing Russian story from Novosti via Google Translate:


Strange they never mentioned they had captured the station nearly a week ago, and yesterday's papers were reporting Ukrainian efforts to defend it.

That says it all really. Russian forces didn't have to use artillery on the site, but they did.

 

[nw1]

When all this started a week ago, there were many posts stating that it won't spread outside Ukraine, it won't turn into WW3, it won't turn Nuclear etc.

It will be interesting to hear if anyone has changed their thoughts on how far they think this will escalate now we are a week in and have witnessed the barbaric actions we have all seen etc.

Let's not start spreading panic.

Personally I am gettiing sick and tired of panic spreading and over dramatisation.

"We're all going to die in a nuclear war, we're all doomed".

This is very unlikely to happen, please let's stop pretending it will be. How will this sort of panic spreading make people feel? Time to stop it now.

 

[yorksrob]

Actually, the weather forecast for the next week or so suggests easterly winds over much of Europe and the UK, with Scandinavian block, therefore any nuclear fallout will be blown Europe's way.

Typical bloody weather.

 

[najaB]

Personally I am gettiing sick and tired of panic spreading and over dramatisation.

This is very unlikely to happen, please let's stop pretending it will be. How will this sort of panic spreading make people feel? Time to stop it now.

It's very unlikely to happen specifically because NATO isn't getting directly involved militarily. That includes the "no fly zone" that some of those same people are calling for.

 

[ainsworth74]

I feel it was a deliberate attack to take the power station but not a deliberate attack to blow up the power station. Personally ( and I am not a military man) I don't think I would use a tank or AFV thing to do that!

I'm certainly not ruling out it was deliberate (I think it likely was), the "what are you doing" would be more the driving armoured vehicles right into the car park (judging from the live streamed CCTV) and opening fire on those buildings with the armoured vehicles. But I do think you're right in saying:

I suspect Russia wants to control utilities so they can turn them off and exert greater pressure on the civilian population.

NATO's Article 5 hasn't been tested in practice yet. Indeed, it is a piece of paper.

I am not certain I want Britain to be at war with a nuclear power over the occupation of Latvia.

Who here will die willingly for Lativa?

I think that the reaction to the invasion of Ukraine has done more to solidify the willingness to defend every inch of NATO territory than anything else has done since the fall of the Soviet Union. Perhaps we wouldn't. But if we react like this to the invasion of a non-NATO state it certainly makes it look far more likely we'd react with military force to the invasion of NATO. We have people honestly calling for war with Russia (those in favour of a no-fly zone) for a country we have nothing but a moral obligation to. Add a moral obligation and a legal obligation and suddenly it looks far more likely we'd do something.

This is the amazing Russian story from Novosti via Google Translate:


Strange they never mentioned they had captured the station nearly a week ago, and yesterday's papers were reporting Ukrainian efforts to defend it.

Yes that's why the Russian vehicles were shooting into the power station buildings they were protecting them from Ukrainian saboteurs who were attacking from the outside...

I remember the good old days when RIA Novosti wasn't just another Government mouth piece.

 

[brad465]

NATO's Article 5 hasn't been tested in practice yet. Indeed, it is a piece of paper.

I am not certain I want Britain to be at war with a nuclear power over the occupation of Latvia.

Who here will die willingly for Lativa?

Does the US triggering it after 9/11 not count as tested in practice then?

 

[adc82140]

The triggering after 9/11 was an interesting one. Article 5 has long been assumed to effectively get the US involved if a smaller country was attacked. The US triggering it due to an attack on the US was more likely symbolic.

 

[DustyBin]

It's very unlikely to happen specifically because NATO isn't getting directly involved militarily. That includes the "no fly zone" that some of those same people are calling for.

The problem as I see it is that people have already decided that an invasion of Poland and/or the Baltic states is inevitable. They’re ten steps ahead of reality.

 

[DarloRich]

I'm certainly not ruling out it was deliberate (I think it likely was), the "what are you doing" would be more the driving armoured vehicles right into the car park (judging from the live streamed CCTV) and opening fire on those buildings with the armoured vehicles.

Agreed - orders to take power station not blow it up!

 

[XAM2175]

I think that the reaction to the invasion of Ukraine has done more to solidify the willingness to defend every inch of NATO territory than anything else has done since the fall of the Soviet Union. Perhaps we wouldn't. But if we react like this to the invasion of a non-NATO state it certainly makes it look far more likely we'd react with military force to the invasion of NATO. We have people honestly calling for war with Russia (those in favour of a no-fly zone) for a country we have nothing but a moral obligation to. Add a moral obligation and a legal obligation and suddenly it looks far more likely we'd do something.

This piece follows a similar line:

Putin’s war is a watershed moment for the EU – the days of ‘never again’ are back | Caroline de Gruyter

Suddenly, brutally, the invasion of Ukraine has taken member states back to the founding principle of the European project

www.theguardian.com

... Having long believed that war was impossible on the continent, [Europeans] are shocked – and embarrassed – that Ukrainians must not only defend their country against Russian aggression, but must also defend democracy, freedom and the right of sovereign states to determine their destiny – the very principles that underpin the European Union.

This war reinforces, with a jolt, the very raison d’etre of the EU as a peace project. After 24 February, no one will again be able to say that the EU’s founding credo, “Never again”, is outdated, and that the EU needs a new narrative to help younger generations – who have no memory of war – relate to European integration. ...

 

[Bald Rick]

I’ve just seen a Facebook post from an anti-Vaxxer (ex friend, emigrated), who is claiming that what the media is reporting is lies, and that actually most of the invasion is made up. Someone has commented on the post, in a rather more restrained manner than I would, to say that her mother lives in Ukraine and is watching Russian soldiers shooting civilians on a daily basis. The response (from someone sitting in their living room in Queensland): “how do you know they are Russians?”.

FFS.

 

[najaB]

The US triggering it due to an attack on the US was more likely symbolic.

It wasn't just symbolic. Among other things, they wanted to get the CAF involved in the defence of the northern air space since they didn't know if there would be more attacks.

 

[nw1]

It's very unlikely to happen specifically because NATO isn't getting directly involved militarily. That includes the "no fly zone" that some of those same people are calling for.

Which is very sensible.

I am making the general point that the media likes to panic us.

Omicron was going to bring our hospitals down.

After 9/11, al-Qaeda were going to kill us all with smallpox.

Make no mistake, Putin is an evil mass murdering monster and I want him out of Ukraine now. But I don't want to take reckless actions and I don't want the media bigging up the chance of nuclear war.

 

[dakta]

I’ve just seen a Facebook post from an anti-Vaxxer (ex friend, emigrated), who is claiming that what the media is reporting is lies, and that actually most of the invasion is made up. Someone has commented on the post, in a rather more restrained manner than I would, to say that her mother lives in Ukraine and is watching Russian soldiers shooting civilians on a daily basis. The response (from someone sitting in their living room in Queensland): “how do you know they are Russians?”.

FFS.

Crikey. Speechless in that one...so many levels

 

[Bantamzen]

Let's not start spreading panic.

Personally I am gettiing sick and tired of panic spreading and over dramatisation.

"We're all going to die in a nuclear war, we're all doomed".

This is very unlikely to happen, please let's stop pretending it will be. How will this sort of panic spreading make people feel? Time to stop it now.

Whilst in principle I agree, we also have to be realistic here. Any war is dangerous and has the potential to escalate, more so when one side is a nuclear power & even more so when somewhere in the chain of command they are prepared to risk using heavy artillery in the area around a nuclear power plant. Whilst WWIII is still very unlikely, yesterday's events moved us a little closer to the uncomfortable reality that a nuclear based solution is still on the table should things get worse. Putin has already ticked off quite a few things he wasn't going to do, we cannot allow ourselves the luxury of assuming he won't tick off more.

Which is very sensible.

I am making the general point that the media likes to panic us.

Omicron was going to bring our hospitals down.

After 9/11, al-Qaeda were going to kill us all with smallpox.

Make no mistake, Putin is an evil mass murdering monster and I want him out of Ukraine now. But I don't want to take reckless actions and I don't want the media bigging up the chance of nuclear war.

Yesterday's event could quite easily have been that trigger. If one of the reactors had been damaged, or worse & radioactive material had been released & moved across Europe NATO and the EU would have been almost certainly forced to react. I would expect an attack on a nuclear power plant resulting in the contamination of a large part of the continent would be seen as an aggressive act, even if the intention was not to destroy the reactors.

Right now the best we can hope for is that Putin is telling his generals to be more careful, and that the official who ordered the attack is on his way to Siberia as we speak.

 

[yorksrob]

I’ve just seen a Facebook post from an anti-Vaxxer (ex friend, emigrated), who is claiming that what the media is reporting is lies, and that actually most of the invasion is made up. Someone has commented on the post, in a rather more restrained manner than I would, to say that her mother lives in Ukraine and is watching Russian soldiers shooting civilians on a daily basis. The response (from someone sitting in their living room in Queensland): “how do you know they are Russians?”.

FFS.

I thought the Ozzies were supposed to be picky about who they let in !

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Mar 2022 ==

I see that half-wit cretin in the Kremlin is now whining about sanctions.

 

[tommy2215]

I see that half-wit cretin in the Kremlin is now whining about sanctions.

Great to hear since it means the sanctions are doing exactly as they intended to do. Interesting that he also says "we have no ill intentions against our neighbours" all the while killing many Ukrainian citizens, bulldozing Ukrainian cities, assassinate its leaders and constantly making up crazy lies about the country.

Also the UN Human Rights Council just voted to condemn Russia with only the mighty Eritrea backing Russia. Sanctions for Eritrea asap! Ironic that Qatar voted to oppose human rights violations

 

[yorksrob]

Great to hear since it means the sanctions are doing exactly as they intended to do. Interesting that he also says "we have no ill intentions against our neighbours" all the while killing many Ukrainian citizens, bulldozing Ukrainian cities, assassinate its leaders and constantly making up crazy lies about the country.

Probably designed for the domestic audience to try and look like some sort of victim I should imagine.

I found the mention of "normalising relations" amusing. He's obviously more deluded than we think if he thinks that's going to happen.

 

[DustyBin]

Yesterday's event could quite easily have been that trigger. If one of the reactors had been damaged, or worse & radioactive material had been released & moved across Europe NATO and the EU would have been almost certainly forced to react. I would expect an attack on a nuclear power plant resulting in the contamination of a large part of the continent would be seen as an aggressive act, even if the intention was not to destroy the reactors.

Right now the best we can hope for is that Putin is telling his generals to be more careful, and that the official who ordered the attack is on his way to Siberia as we speak.

It’s worth pointing out there’s a general acceptance that the Russian forces are severely lacking in command & control capability (or at least functionality). The order may well have been “take the area around around the plant” and after that it’s the troops on the ground making the decisions.

It’s still an incredibly reckless act, but there’s nothing to say it was sanctioned by anybody further up the chain of command than the actual guy who pulled the trigger, so to speak.

 

[Bantamzen]

It’s worth pointing out there’s a general acceptance that the Russian forces are severely lacking in command & control capability (or at least functionality). The order may well have been “take the area around around the plant” and after that it’s the troops on the ground making the decisions.

It’s still an incredibly reckless act, but there’s nothing to say it was sanctioned by anybody further up the chain of command than the actual guy who pulled the trigger, so to speak.

If this really is the case then we are screwed. I would have at least hoped that an attack on a foreign nuclear plant site would have at least required someone pretty high up to OK the use of weaponry capable of blowing the bloody thing to bits!

 

[Bald Rick]

I see that half-wit cretin in the Kremlin is now whining about sanctions.

Which one? There’s a pretty long list of runners for that title.

 

[najaB]

I would have at least hoped that an attack on a foreign nuclear plant site would have at least required someone pretty high up to OK the use of weaponry capable of blowing the bloody thing to bits!

The use of weaponry capable of blowing the thing to bits was authorised a week ago. Now it's just a matter of aiming.

 

[coppercapped]

Whether or not the Russian army's action at the nuclear power plant was intentional or accidental, the net result was to underline the dangers of Putin's implicit threat to use nuclear weapons.

This being the case I would bet that in fact the attack was approved at the highest level.

Another item on the charge sheet.

 

[Bantamzen]

The use of weaponry capable of blowing the thing to bits was authorised a week ago. Now it's just a matter of aiming.

That being the case, then by proxy Putin and his administration are directly responsible for almost causing a disaster on a scale that we really do not want to think about. And it still leaves the question, what else might the Russian forces do under their powers given to them?