Russia invades Ukraine

[DustyBin]

If this really is the case then we are screwed. I would have at least hoped that an attack on a foreign nuclear plant site would have at least required someone pretty high up to OK the use of weaponry capable of blowing the bloody thing to bits!

Again though, “take the nuclear plant” is different to “blow the plant up”. It’s still dangerous and reckless but I think it’s unlikely there was any intention to cause a nuclear catastrophe. Poor communication and a disorganised, possibly exhausted, and frankly amateurish military is the issue here IMO. I’ll reiterate, just for the avoidance of doubt; this is in no way an attempt to downplay the seriousness of the incident.

Whether or not the Russian army's action at the nuclear power plant was intentional or accidental, the net result was to underline the dangers of Putin's implicit threat to use nuclear weapons.

This being the case I would bet that in fact the attack was approved at the highest level.

Another item on the charge sheet.

See above, although I agree with adding it to the charge sheet regardless.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Mar 2022 ==

That being the case, then by proxy Putin and his administration are directly responsible for almost causing a disaster on a scale that we really do not want to think about. And it still leaves the question, what else might the Russian forces do under their powers given to them?

Mutiny with any luck!

On a serious note if you look at the structure of the Russian military, Putin appears to not exactly trust large parts of it.

 

[yorksrob]

Which one? There’s a pretty long list of runners for that title.

The chief one in this case - but good point well made !

 

[nw1]

Again though, “take the nuclear plant” is different to “blow the plant up”. It’s still dangerous and reckless but I think it’s unlikely there was any intention to cause a nuclear catastrophe. Poor communication and a disorganised, possibly exhausted, and frankly amateurish military is the issue here IMO. I’ll reiterate, just for the avoidance of doubt; this is in no way an attempt to downplay the seriousness of the incident.

In some ways I think we need to emphasise that it was likely completely unintentional: just so happened there was fighting in the area and something got hit, thankfully not the reactor.

Much more serious is if we get Western hawks wanting revenge over this incident, and dragging the west into the conflict. This really must be resisted. It's time for a cool head.

 

[AlterEgo]

The triggering after 9/11 was an interesting one. Article 5 has long been assumed to effectively get the US involved if a smaller country was attacked. The US triggering it due to an attack on the US was more likely symbolic.

I tend to agree. NATO is very asymmetric and the dynamics of actually invoking Article 5 might involve a sharp intake of breath if a single Baltic state is attacked.

I feel its existence is more of a psychological deterrent in that respect.

 

[Bantamzen]

Again though, “take the nuclear plant” is different to “blow the plant up”. It’s still dangerous and reckless but I think it’s unlikely there was any intention to cause a nuclear catastrophe. Poor communication and a disorganised, possibly exhausted, and frankly amateurish military is the issue here IMO. I’ll reiterate, just for the avoidance of doubt; this is in no way an attempt to downplay the seriousness of the incident.

Even commanders in the field should have realised the dangers of throwing explosives in the direction of nuclear reactors. Just how this chain events could have played through is beyond me. Not only were they putting the lives of tens / hundreds of million at risk, it would have brought their own advances to a sudden halt. Crazy, and very worrying if this is the mindset of the Russian army right now.

Mutiny with any luck!

On a serious note if you look at the structure of the Russian military, Putin appears to not exactly trust large parts of it.

And that is even more worrying, an aging dictator desperate to set his legacy commanding an army he doesn't trust to do what he wants. It feels more and more like we are being sucked into a Hollywood movie...

 

[nw1]

Even commanders in the field should have realised the dangers of throwing explosives in the direction of nuclear reactors. Just how this chain events could have played through is beyond me. Not only were they putting the lives of tens / hundreds of million at risk, it would have brought their own advances to a sudden halt. Crazy, and very worrying if this is the mindset of the Russian army right now.


And that is even more worrying, an aging dictator desperate to set his legacy commanding an army he doesn't trust to do what he wants. It feels more and more like we are being sucked into a Hollywood movie...

Please, please, let's stop being alarmist as it achieves nothing.

Let's just restrict this discussion to anger at Putin rather than saying the apocalypse is imminent. As I said, incompetence rather than malice was the likely cause.

Last thing we want is for the West to over-react and cause unnecessarily escalation.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Probably designed for the domestic audience to try and look like some sort of victim I should imagine.

I found the mention of "normalising relations" amusing. He's obviously more deluded than we think if he thinks that's going to happen.

I find the most amusing thing the idea that they claim to be demilitarising Ukraine. By that logic, I guess next time I want to clean my house, I should do so by emptying loads of dirt and rubbish in it!

 

[Ediswan]

The Zaporizhzhia site is huge. It is over 5km from the site entrance to the nearest nuclear reactor. So where within this site was the shelling ?
There is now a daylight image of the damaged building (BBC etc). Google Street View gets to some unexpected places:
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@47.5...4!1sDhvLhz11BuV_TWwCmU4Ong!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
That puts the firing point about 400m from the nearest reactor (pan right).

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Even commanders in the field should have realised the dangers of throwing explosives in the direction of nuclear reactors. Just how this chain events could have played through is beyond me.

Judging by Russian antics so far... they were probably lost, and thought that those heavy buildings were a civilian hospital, not a nuclear reactor, and were therefore a completely legitimate target for ruthless shelling.

 

[dgl]

Judging by Russian antics so far... they were probably lost, and thought that those heavy buildings were a civilian hospital, not a nuclear reactor, and were therefore a completely legitimate target for ruthless shelling.

a nuclear reactor is generally a pretty obvious building though.

 

[najaB]

Judging by Russian antics so far... they were probably lost, and thought that those heavy buildings were a civilian hospital, not a nuclear reactor, and were therefore a completely legitimate target for ruthless shelling.

The sad thing is, you're possibly not that far off the mark!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Mar 2022 ==

a nuclear tractor is generally a pretty obvious building though.

Voice typing, or one heck of a typo?

 

[Cloud Strife]

Judging by Russian antics so far... they were probably lost, and thought that those heavy buildings were a civilian hospital, not a nuclear reactor, and were therefore a completely legitimate target for ruthless shelling.

I think it's more likely that they knew that the building could be attacked. I suspect that by attacking it, and then restricting entry to firefighters, they knew that the Ukrainian defenders would let them occupy the power plant rather than risk more fighting in/around ZNPP.

It was a risk that the Ukrainians simply couldn't take: if they continued to defend, who knows what the Russians might have done?

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

The sad thing is, you're possibly not that far off the mark!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Mar 2022 ==


Voice typing, or one heck of a typo?

I’m pretty sure the Firefly machine from Thunderbirds falls under that category

 

[adc82140]

Nato sec General has said there will not be a no fly zone, nor any other military intervention. I'm glad we have cool heads prevailing there.

 

[DustyBin]

Nato sec General has said there will not be a no fly zone, nor any other military intervention. I'm glad we have cool heads prevailing there.

The priority now must be to bolster defences in NATO countries in Eastern Europe. And I mean a SIGNIFICANT presence leaving Putin in no doubt that he WILL be facing NATO forces directly if he tries anything stupid.

This won't help Ukraine, I realise that. Unfortunately I don't know what more we can do in this regard.

 

[DanNCL]

Apparently Sainsburys have changed how they spell Chicken Kiev to Chicken Kyiv to "stand united with the people of Ukraine".

 

[yorksrob]

The priority now must be to bolster defences in NATO countries in Eastern Europe. And I mean a SIGNIFICANT presence leaving Putin in no doubt that he WILL be facing NATO forces directly if he tries anything stupid.

This won't help Ukraine, I realise that. Unfortunately I don't know what more we can do in this regard.

And channeling as many weapons and other useful hardware to the Ukrainians as they can use.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Mar 2022 ==

I find the most amusing thing the idea that they claim to be demilitarising Ukraine. By that logic, I guess next time I want to clean my house, I should do so by emptying loads of dirt and rubbish in it!

Yes, that's another particularly incongruous claim by them.

 

[GS250]

The use of weaponry capable of blowing the thing to bits was authorised a week ago. Now it's just a matter of aiming.

Its always authorised. Its always there. Ours is ready to fire at a moment's notice too. We need to detach ourselves a bit from that statement of his. All he was doing is stating the obvious.

I see the Russians are planning on banning our mainstream media. Can see why really. They can't be trusted either......

 

[najaB]

Its always authorised. Its always there. Ours is ready to fire at a moment's notice too. We need to detach ourselves a bit from that statement of his. All he was doing is stating the obvious.

I think you misunderstood my post. We weren't discussing nuclear weapons.

 

[Shrop]

1) There is a vast difference when it comes to Baltic states, Poland, Slovakia, Germany, and most other such countries you care to name - they're all NATO members and thus protected by NATO's mutual defence obligation (Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty), whereas Ukraine isn't.

2) The Russian veto you're thinking of relates to the UN Security Council, not NATO.

1. These are the very reasons Putin is testing the water now, to see what reaction he gets from the Nazis and the Agressors (ie the Ukranians and the West - his words). If the reaction is fairly tame, as it is now, he'll test some more. And yes, I would be delighted to be wrong on this.
2. Agreed, but we'll see what comes next.

 

[adc82140]

If he succeeds with Ukraine, he will stir up Georgia and Moldova. He knows what happens if he goes near NATO. If he wasn't afraid of Nato he wouldn't have given a stuff whether Ukraine joined or not

 

[RichJF]

The priority now must be to bolster defences in NATO countries in Eastern Europe. And I mean a SIGNIFICANT presence leaving Putin in no doubt that he WILL be facing NATO forces directly if he tries anything stupid.

This won't help Ukraine, I realise that. Unfortunately I don't know what more we can do in this regard.

It's a truly horrible situation to have to worry about:

1) NO NO FLY ZONE: Support Ukraine & its 45m population with military and humanitarian aid but risk the country being ruined with deplorable tactics.

vs

2) YES NO FLY ZONE: Risk direction confrontation between NATO/Russian aircraft resulting in inevitable escalation into a continental war.

 

[tommy2215]

I really don't think Putin will attack any more countries, even if he is successful in Ukraine. His armed forces are taking such a beating in this invasion that there's no way they are prepared for another conflict right after this one. The Russian economy most definitely cannot handle another war. And even if he were to take control or install a puppet leader in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova or anywhere else, it will be extremely difficult for Putin to maintain control there since the vast majority of the population do not want him or his puppet! Of course I could be wrong but there's just no way another invasion is possible for Russia.

 

[GS250]

I think you misunderstood my post. We weren't discussing nuclear weapons.

Take it back then.

I really don't think Putin will attack any more countries, even if he is successful in Ukraine. His armed forces are taking such a beating in this invasion that there's no way they are prepared for another conflict right after this one. The Russian economy most definitely cannot handle another war. And even if he were to take control or install a puppet leader in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova or anywhere else, it will be extremely difficult for Putin to maintain control there since the vast majority of the population do not want him or his puppet! Of course I could be wrong but there's just no way another invasion is possible for Russia.

Agreed. For the horror that he has inflicted so far. I genuinely believe he doesn't want a war with NATO.

 

[Cloud Strife]

If he succeeds with Ukraine, he will stir up Georgia and Moldova. He knows what happens if he goes near NATO. If he wasn't afraid of Nato he wouldn't have given a stuff whether Ukraine joined or not

It's now blindingly clear that NATO has nothing to fear from Russia. We need strong territorial defences equipped with anti-tank, anti-aircraft and anti-everything missiles/rockets, which in Ukraine is proving ruinous for the Russians. I also agree that Putin doesn't want war with NATO, because they will simply lose.

If Russia wins in Ukraine, then Moldova and Georgia will fall. Conversely, if Putin is dragged into an eternal war in Ukraine, then I expect Putin to fall. He needs to win at all costs now, and the sanctions will cause a huge decrease in his support among the middle classes who tolerate United Russia in exchange for the benefits.

IMO, it seems crystal clear now that Russia doesn't have the strength or the ability to take Ukraine as a whole. We need to keep supplying the Ukrainian forces with as much anti-tank/armour as we can, and videos online make it clear that it only requires two/three people to destroy a Russian unit. There will become a point when Russia will have to rely only on infantry, and they'll be cannon fodder against a population that wants them dead at all costs.

 

[TheEdge]

I really don't think Putin will attack any more countries, even if he is successful in Ukraine. His armed forces are taking such a beating in this invasion that there's no way they are prepared for another conflict right after this one.

This a notable point. The Russian forces are getting their backsides handed to them by an army on paper they really should have been able to subdue to short order. It's becoming quite clear when it comes to conventional warfare Russia is all bark but very poor bite. Conventional war against NATO, they'd be smashed.

Their only saving grace for Russia at the moment is Ukraine is either incapable of or struggling to do counter artillery work. NATO however would be able to deal with that in a totally different way. And that's really all Russia seems to have.

 

[yorksrob]

It's now blindingly clear that NATO has nothing to fear from Russia. We need strong territorial defences equipped with anti-tank, anti-aircraft and anti-everything missiles/rockets, which in Ukraine is proving ruinous for the Russians. I also agree that Putin doesn't want war with NATO, because they will simply lose.

If Russia wins in Ukraine, then Moldova and Georgia will fall. Conversely, if Putin is dragged into an eternal war in Ukraine, then I expect Putin to fall. He needs to win at all costs now, and the sanctions will cause a huge decrease in his support among the middle classes who tolerate United Russia in exchange for the benefits.

IMO, it seems crystal clear now that Russia doesn't have the strength or the ability to take Ukraine as a whole. We need to keep supplying the Ukrainian forces with as much anti-tank/armour as we can, and videos online make it clear that it only requires two/three people to destroy a Russian unit. There will become a point when Russia will have to rely only on infantry, and they'll be cannon fodder against a population that wants them dead at all costs.

Indeed. To my mind the key objectives must be:

1) To provide everything Ukraine needs to make the Russian forces go home or bleed them dry, for however long that may take.

2) To make permanent the economic restrictions and sanctions on the Russian KGB/FSB state to ensure that it is never again allowed to gain an economic foothold in the West.

 

[Giugiaro]

And even if he were to take control or install a puppet leader in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova or anywhere else, it will be extremely difficult for Putin to maintain control there since the vast majority of the population do not want him or his puppet! Of course I could be wrong but there's just no way another invasion is possible for Russia.

If Russia wins in Ukraine, then Moldova and Georgia will fall. Conversely, if Putin is dragged into an eternal war in Ukraine, then I expect Putin to fall. He needs to win at all costs now, and the sanctions will cause a huge decrease in his support among the middle classes who tolerate United Russia in exchange for the benefits.

Scale is also very important to take into consideration.
If the second largest country in Europe falls under Russia, no matter how battered the Russian military ends up, it'll certainly be a huge morale drop for smaller countries like Moldova and Georgia.

And it's also notable that Putin is very well willing to steam roll his way through its neighbouring countries.

 

[brad465]

If sanctions are not sufficient enough, one only needs to look at the below graph of sanctioned individuals per state/bloc to see why we're helping the Russian oligarchy:

https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1499752553810214916

Comparing the #RussiaSanctions (from Bloomberg)

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Realistically, based on geography, I wouldn't be surprised if Putin marched into Moldova the moment Ukraine is even half-subdued - enough to give him any forces to spare. After conquering Ukraine, Putin will after all automatically have his army covering Moldova's entire eastern border.

One of the few things that I hope may give some long-term cause for hope is if sanctions continue to be ratcheted up, I imagine it'll become extremely hard for Russia to keep manufacturing advanced weaponry, so they may get to a point where, once they used the stuff they have, that's it (unless China starts selling them stuff). Ukraine on the other hand will be able to just keep continually topping up, provided NATO continues to supply them. If that theory works out, eventually we'll hit a point where Ukraine has weapons and Russia doesn't - and at that point, Russian forces in Ukraine are toast. We just have to hope that enough of Ukraine's army can remain intact long enough for that to happen.