Russia invades Ukraine

[najaB]

According to the BBC, Sergei Lavrov is calling the US "the ultimate evil", "subjugating Europe" and is preparing WWIII.

I'm not sure I read the reporting the same way. One the main live updates page they say (my bold):

He says that US President Joe Biden has said the only alternative to sanctions is a third world war - and Lavrov goes on to say that a third world war could only be "nuclear war".

He says that is only in the heads of Western politicians - and is not in the heads of the Russian people.

"If real war is waged against us then those who make such plans should think about it [and] in my opinion such plans are being made," he says.

From which I don't get that he's accusing the US of trying to start a war.

 

[adc82140]

I'm not sure I read the reporting the same way. One the main live updates page they say (my bold):

From which I don't get that he's accusing the US of trying to start a war.

That's the way I read it. Biden has said that to stamp down all those clamouring for some sort of military intervention. And he is right.

 

[Chingy]

I remember a press conference from Lavrov approx a month ago, where he stated it was all in the heads of western leaders that Russia was going to invade Ukraine, that Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine etc?

 

[adc82140]

I remember a press conference from Lavrov approx a month ago, where he stated it was all in the heads of western leaders that Russia was going to invade Ukraine, that Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine etc?

They haven't invaded Ukraine. It's a "special military operation". So they say.

 

[the sniper]

To be honest I am a bit surprised by the lack of retaliation by Russia in response to the West's sanctions, being banned from international sport, arming Ukraine and suffering significant cyber attacks. Obviously we have had the nuclear threats but Russia has not stopped any of its exports, imposed any sanctions of its own or hit the West with any meaningful cyber attacks of their own. Not sure why this is, considering the options at Putin's disposal.

It could be that some of Russia’s abilities are heavily overstated.

On this front I can imagine that to be the case, though I doubt they've really shown us their hand. Sizable "Troll farms" are something quite different from cyber warfare capability. What capacity they have is probably being directed at Ukraine. They probably have weak options that they can readily hit in the West, but are probably holding off.

 

[tommy2215]

I'm not sure I read the reporting the same way. One the main live updates page they say (my bold):

From which I don't get that he's accusing the US of trying to start a war.

But further down where he says "in my opinion such plans are being made" seems like he is accusing the US of that

 

[GS250]

So long as you're willing to put the lives of you and your family into the equation, fair enough. Personally it would seem premature to me, if you truly understand what you're suggesting.

A nuclear winter would destroy crops and turn large portions of the world into a wasteland. Not to mention the spread of fallout.

This is why an all out nuclear exchange is extremely unlikely even if things did escalate. The global 'elite' would probably escape the initial effects. No doubt they have their bunkers and private yachts to escape to. However, their wealth will be worth absolutely nothing when they come skulking out of their burrows. What kind of planet are they going to have to live on? This is why those Oligarchs and the likes of China have an absolutely huge vested interest in this not escalating into the worst scenario.

The use of 'small' tactical weapons on military battle groups probably a no no either. Once one has been detonated, only a question of time before usage becomes more frequent.

Psychologically, the 'N' word has had a huge effect on this conflict.

 

[adc82140]

But further down where he says "in my opinion such plans are being made" seems like he is accusing the US of that

He doesn't say by who though. There are certain members of the US Congress, as well as the House of Commons (Ellwood) who are in effect making plans. But it doesn't make it government policy.

 

[tommy2215]

He doesn't say by who though. There are certain members of the US Congress, as well as the House of Commons (Ellwood) who are in effect making plans. But it doesn't make it government policy.

Probably Liz Truss again! She seems to scare them to no ends

 

[Bantamzen]

There's currently a video on the BBC News live stream of an elderly woman being arrested at an anti-war protest in Russia. The two arresting officers look suitably uncomfortable doing it, and the crowd behind was being held back by many more. Its this kind of coverage that will stoke more protests and more trouble for Putin.

Video was published @ 10:37 on this link.

 

[High Dyke]

So resounding comments from a silver spoon MP on helping refugees from the conflict.

BBC News - Ukraine conflict: MP faces backlash over 'we have done our bit' comments

Ukraine conflict: MP faces backlash over 'we have done our bit' comments

Sir Edward Leigh says places like Lincolnshire have "done our bit for migration from eastern Europe".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[adc82140]

I'm rather glad we have someone sensible in charge in Washington right now. Biden has cancelled a planned test launch of an ICBM to prevent any miscalculation or escalation.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Mar 2022 ==

There's currently a video on the BBC News live stream of an elderly woman being arrested at an anti-war protest in Russia. The two arresting officers look suitably uncomfortable doing it, and the crowd behind was being held back by many more. Its this kind of coverage that will stoke more protests and more trouble for Putin.

Video was published @ 10:37 on this link.

Sadly most Russians are unlikely to see it.

 

[DarloRich]

The BBC note that the city of Kherson in the south of Ukraine has been captured by the Russians: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60597367

Russian forces have seized control of a key port city in southern Ukraine, the mayor says.

Kherson is the first major city to be taken by Russia, after heavy fighting, since it invaded a week ago.

Its mayor, Igor Kolykhaev, said Russian troops had forced their way into the city council building and imposed a curfew on residents.

 

[najaB]

This is why an all out nuclear exchange is extremely unlikely even if things did escalate.

If everyone acted rationally all the time, I completely agree. However...

 

[Bantamzen]

I'm rather glad we have someone sensible in charge in Washington right now. Biden has cancelled a planned test launch of an ICBM to prevent any miscalculation or escalation.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Mar 2022 ==


Sadly most Russians are unlikely to see it.

Not via state television certainly, but there seemed to be plenty of people there and an awful lot of mobile phones were filming it.

 

[najaB]

Probably Liz Truss again! She seems to scare them to no ends

Only because Putin looks at her and thinks she's got a few screws loose!

On the subject of sanctions, given that both Airbus and Boeing have said they're not supplying parts or support for their aircraft, how long will it be before Russian airlines have to start grounding aircraft? And, if this is a long, drawn-out war, does this represent an opportunity for Comac to land some sizeable orders?

 

[GS250]

So resounding comments from a silver spoon MP on helping refugees from the conflict.

BBC News - Ukraine conflict: MP faces backlash over 'we have done our bit' comments

Ukraine conflict: MP faces backlash over 'we have done our bit' comments

Sir Edward Leigh says places like Lincolnshire have "done our bit for migration from eastern Europe".

www.bbc.co.uk

I'd like an honest breakdown of the housing situation across all of Europe. Which countries (if any) have an oversupply of housing available and which clearly don't have enough. The accommodation of refugees always an emotional, political subject. Its about balancing your obligations to help those in need versus the current housing situation and the potential of alienating and financially compressing those who are barely making ends meet.

 

[najaB]

I'd like an honest breakdown of the housing situation across all of Europe.

I can't speak to all of Europe, but I know that a few years ago Germany was at the point where they were (considering?) demolishing houses because so many of them were empty. Particularly in the eastern part of the country.

 

[Gostav]

Only because Putin looks at her and thinks she's got a few screws loose!

On the subject of sanctions, given that both Airbus and Boeing have said they're not supplying parts or support for their aircraft, how long will it be before Russian airlines have to start grounding aircraft? And, if this is a long, drawn-out war, does this represent an opportunity for Comac to land some sizeable orders?

No idea about Comac but it seems China would be not afraid of sanctions so any cooperation in further between the two countries is really possible.

China will not join sanctions on Russia, banking regulator says​

BEIJING, March 2 (Reuters) - China will not join in sanctions on Russia that have been led by the West, the country's banking regulator said on Wednesday, adding that he believed the impact of the measures on China would be limited.

China, which has refused to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has repeatedly criticised what it calls illegal and unilateral sanctions.

"As far as financial sanctions are concerned, we do not approve of these, especially the unilaterally launched sanctions because they do not work well and have no legal grounds," Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, told a news conference.

"We will not participate in such sanctions. We will continue to maintain normal economic and trade exchanges with relevant parties," he said.

China and Russia have grown increasingly close in recent years, including as trading partners. Total trade between the two jumped 35.9% last year to a record $146.9 billion, according to Chinese customs data, with Russia serving as a major source of oil, gas, coal and agriculture commodities, running a trade surplus with China. read more

"The impact from the sanctions on China's economy and financial sector is so far not too significant," Guo added.

"Overall they will not have much impact (on China) even in the future," Guo said, citing the resilience of China's economy and financial sector.

China will not join sanctions on Russia, banking regulator says

China will not join in sanctions on Russia that have been led by the West, the country's banking regulator said on Wednesday, adding that he believed the impact of the measures on China would be limited.

www.reuters.com

EXCLUSIVE Russian firms rush to open Chinese bank accounts as sanctions bite - sources​

EXCLUSIVE Russian firms rush to open Chinese bank accounts as sanctions bite - sources

The Moscow branch of a Chinese state bank has seen a surge in enquiries from Russian firms wanting to open new accounts, a person familiar with the matter said, as the country's businesses struggle with international sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

 

[adc82140]

Has the RT.com website been officially blocked in the UK, or is it under constant DDOS attack? I've not been able to get on all day.

 

[najaB]

Has the RT.com website been officially blocked in the UK, or is it under constant DDOS attack? I've not been able to get on all day.

I suspect it's a DDOS attack or other problem. If it was blocked I'd expect you would get a page saying as much.

 

[adrock1976]

Something we should be asking ourselves is that what does the Belarusian president Lukashenko have to gain out of this conflict, as very little has been mentioned so far?

Is Lukashenko actually the one pulling the strings in the background, bearing in mind he has been "elected" as President since 1994?

I have found something on the al-Jazeera news website at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/23/what-is-the-role-of-belarus-in-the-ukraine-russia-crisis

Here is the article in its original form

Ukraine crisis: What does Belarus have to gain, and lose?​

Lukashenko could benefit politically and financially by siding with Putin, but observers warn his friendship could backfire.

By Mansur Mirovalev
Published On 23 Feb 202223 Feb 2022

Kyiv, Ukraine – “The implementation of the Minsk accords” is the phrase one hears quite often these days when politicians and pundits discuss the spiralling confrontation between Russia and Ukraine.
Minsk I and II are two sets of peace accords struck between Moscow and Kyiv in the eponymous capital of neighbouring Belarus in 2014 and 2015.

But the forested nation of 10 million – that looks to many outsiders like a mini-USSR preserved in amber – is a lot more than just a suitable venue for Russia-Ukraine summits.
Its authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has had a hand in the political games between Moscow, his main backer and sponsor, and Kyiv, for years – reaping enormous political and economic gains.

On Tuesday, a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised breakaway Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states, Lukashenko urged Ukrainians to “stop” their confrontation with Russia – and abandon their US “masters.”
“Stop! Shoo away these masters from over the ocean. They won’t bring you any happiness. As soon as they can’t use you any more, they will dump you at the junkyard of history,” said the moustachioed 67-year-old, clad in a military uniform, while addressing Belarusian top brass.
On Saturday, Lukashenko sat next to Putin observing military drills and launches of ballistic and cruise missiles from the giant screens in the Russian Defence Ministry’s Moscow headquarters.

Lukashenko’s gain​

And on Sunday, some 30,000 Russian soldiers “extended” their drills with Belarusian servicemen that began in southern Belarus on February 10 next to the Ukrainian border.
The troops stand close to Ukraine’s poorly guarded Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, an area of 2,600 square kilometres (1,000 square miles) contaminated by the 1986 nuclear disaster.
And just 100km (62 miles) south of the zone lies Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital and home to two million people.
But what does Lukashenko gain from all of this?
“This is a matter of money. When talking about the dangers [of war], he can always negotiate some funds either for updating the military or simply for financial support,” Ihar Tyshkevich, a Belarusian expert based in Kyiv, told Al Jazeera.
And there is also a matter of staying in power.

In the late 1990s, Lukashenko, a hyperactive strongman already dubbed “Europe’s last dictator”, and Russian President Boris Yeltsin agreed to create a Union State – a merger of Russia and Belarus.
Lukashenko hoped to replace the ailing and alcoholic Yeltsin, but the latter chose Putin.
Lukashenko stalled the merger, but used it for more than 20 years to milk the Kremlin for multibillion loans, trade preferences and perks for hundreds of thousands of Belarusian labour migrants toiling in Russia.

He also used Ukraine’s falling out with Russia as a way to fill his coffers.
After the 2014 Maidan protests that overthrew pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, Kyiv limited trade with Moscow — and Belarus started repackaging and reselling Ukrainian and Russian goods to both sides.
As Moscow repeatedly increased prices for natural gas sold to Ukraine, Lukashenko boosted the export of electricity and petrol to Kyiv.
So far, the current escalation that may or may not evolve into a full-scale war is a boon to Lukashenko – as long as a solution or peace settlement is nowhere in sight.

“In the current situation, it is extremely beneficial for Lukashenko to talk about the war, [but he] would face a catastrophe if there is a war – or a catastrophe in case of a prompt peace settlement,” analyst Tyshkevich said.
The main reason Lukashenko needs the crisis next to Belarus is the “full transformation” of its political scene he is finalising this Sunday, he said.

In 2020, Lukashenko weathered the biggest political crisis of his presidency – weeks-long protests that followed the August 20 presidential vote he claims to have won.
Large numbers of protesters were arrested, and many left for Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine.
To cement his grip on power, Lukashenko amended the constitution – and also removed the concept of “neutrality” from it – to allow deployment of Belarusian troops abroad.

Russian troops can be handy​

The presence of Russian troops could be handy in case of rallies during and after the February 27 referendum.
And Lukashenko’s battle cries help him rally his core supporters – the workers of state-owned plants and factories and the farmers of Soviet-era collective farms.

“The mobilisation of his electorate through war rhetoric is good” for him, Tyshkevich said.
But siding with Russia may backfire economically, observers warn.
“The [Belarusian] economy is slowing down, as well as the sales of potassium, the key Belarusian export, and the Ukrainian market may be lost” because of Kyiv’s possible sanctions, Ukrainian analyst Aleksey Kushch told Al Jazeera.
“It would take several years to diversify these risks – to look for new markets and to develop the logistics of potassium trade via Russia,” he said.

So, the “mobilisation” of the Belarusian economy on a war footing stabilised by Russian funds is Lukashenko’s only way out, he said.
The current crisis might also create an opportunity for Russia to further subjugate Belarus – and, possibly, annex it according to the stipulations of the Union State.

“Behind the concentration of troops along Ukraine’s borders, the escalation in Donbas and harsh rhetoric on all sides, no one questions any more to what extent Russia is planning to boost its military presence in Belarus,” Pavel Luzin, a Russia-based analyst with the Jamestown Foundation, a think-tank in Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera.
And the West is too preoccupied with Ukraine these days to pay attention to Lukashenko’s political escapades.
“It looks like the West agreed with its own absence in the [resolution of the] Belarusian affair,” Luzin said.

Source: Al Jazeera

 

[najaB]

Something we should be asking ourselves is that what does the Belarusian president Lukashenko have to gain out of this conflict, as very little has been mentioned so far?

It might not be what he gains from supporting it, as much as what he would lose by opposing it.

 

[Ediswan]

I suspect it's a DDOS attack or other problem. If it was blocked I'd expect you would get a page saying as much.

There are plenty of ways of blocking access that would result in no response.

 

[Yew]

We don't know what type of war, is my point. I'd rather avoid any war, frankly.

And yet you keenly assert it will be nuclear.

 

[najaB]

There are plenty of ways of blocking access that would result in no response.

Yes, I know that. But those doing the blocking would want to make sure that people know it's been blocked, rather than just not working.

And yet you keenly assert it will be nuclear.

Nobody has said that the response will be nuclear. However, risk = impact of the event x probability that the event will happen.

In this situation, the impact is so high that even a low probability makes escalation extremely risky.

 

[XAM2175]

There's currently a video on the BBC News live stream of an elderly woman being arrested at an anti-war protest in Russia. The two arresting officers look suitably uncomfortable doing it, and the crowd behind was being held back by many more. Its this kind of coverage that will stoke more protests and more trouble for Putin.

The woman is identified as being 77 years old, and a civilian survivor of the 872-day-long Siege of Leningrad:

Russian pensioner 'who survived siege of Leningrad' arrested for protest against Ukraine war – video

A 77-year-old artist and activist is detained by police at an anti-war protest in St Petersburgh

www.theguardian.com

Somewhat happier news: Deutsche Bahn and Nederlandse Spoorwegen are both offering free travel to holders of Ukrainian identity documents. Similar arrangements are apparently in place for all VBB services in Berlin and all public transport in Switzerland. Also, SBB Cargo International is offering free shipment of humanitarian aid to Ukraine, under the personal supervision of their CEO.

And for a little wry moment: Ukraine’s National Agency for the Protection against Corruption has definitively confirmed that captured Russian fighting vehicles do not to be declared for the purposes of income tax.

 

[najaB]

Has the RT.com website been officially blocked in the UK, or is it under constant DDOS attack? I've not been able to get on all day.

It's available for me curently.

 

[adc82140]

It's available for me curently.

It was for me as well for a few minutes.

 

[najaB]

According to the BBC, Sergei Lavrov is calling the US "the ultimate evil", "subjugating Europe" and is preparing WWIII.

Interestingly, RT's take on it isn't that much different (Note the sub-head!):

WWIII will be nuclear – Moscow
The warning comes after Moscow placed units equipped with ICBMs on high combat alert

The next major conflict between world powers will involve atomic armaments and will be catastrophic for the human race, Russia’s top diplomat has warned, amid an escalating standoff with the West over Moscow’s military attack on Ukraine.

Russian state news agency TASS reported on Wednesday that Sergey Lavrov had said in an interview with Al-Jazeera that “World War III would be a devastating nuclear war.”

WWIII will be nuclear – Moscow

Third world war will be fought with nuclear weaponry, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claims, as Moscow attacks Ukraine

www.rt.com