Russia invades Ukraine

[TheEdge]

There is a certain tragic yet poetic irony of young Russian soldiers being made ill by digging up the work the Red Army did trying to limit the damage of one of the worst man made disasters in history

 

[Giugiaro]

To be clear this is likely due to exposure to radioactivity in the soil from the original accident which has been kicked up as dust by vehicles and from digging trenches(!) rather than new release of radiation from the Safe Confinement structure over reactor 4. Chernobyl was comparatively safe to visit as long as you didn't, you know, go around kicking up dust inhaling it as well eating and drinking things which might have been exposed to that dust and dirt.

Thanks for the insight. At first I was sceptic, given how tourists could already visit the area and spend the night, and some workers still spent their time working in the area.

I didn't know that the subsurface soil has concentrated radioactive elements. I was led to believe that removing the topsoil was enough to cut environmental radiation levels to a safe enough level in the affected area.

I also wouldn't be surprised if some of the troops sheltered themselves inside the Pripyat hospital. That building is one of the "hottest" places in the world.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Intelligence agencies are reporting that Putin was actually not fully aware of the extent of the rot in the Russian MoD ahead of the invasion of Ukraine. Perhaps this is a cautionary tale about not falling for your own "agitprop"?

I suspect he might have had a good idea, but you have to wonder exactly what he was told about the mood in Ukraine. In fairness, how many of us pre-invasion expected Zelensky and his cabinet to be so, so devastatingly good at PR and at motivating people?

Poland hates Russia probably more than any other ex-Soviet state, and that's saying something. As @Cloud Strife alluded to earlier, Poland prides itself on being the most successful departure from the Soviet bloc and fully integrated as a European nation. This is partly why Poland has shown such leadership in taking in Ukrainian refugees.

It's worth pointing out that the Polish government's attitude towards the EU is not shared by society at all, despite their best efforts. They're in power because they handed out a lot of cash to two key electorates - families and retired people. If it wasn't for the financial benefits, they'd have fallen by now.

Interestingly, there are strong signals coming from the Polish government that the bromance with the Hungarians is dead.

 

[Doppelganger]

Interestingly, there are strong signals coming from the Polish government that the bromance with the Hungarians is dead.

Not just the Polish government, but the general population themselves are saying as much.

Orban is too much for some and I think he is running a similar propaganda campaign in Hungary.

The Hungarians are definitely the weak link in both NATO and the EU

 

[Noddy]

In fairness, how many of us pre-invasion expected Zelensky and his cabinet to be so, so devastatingly good at PR and at motivating people?

Given that he won the first round of the presidential election with nearly double the votes of his nearest rival, and 73% in the runoff, perhaps it’s not that surprising that he is good at ‘campaigning’. What is more surprising is that he chose to stay and potentially fight, despite offers of asylum, putting himself and those close to him at great risk. I can’t imagine many in the current UK government (or for that matter the three devolved governments) choosing to do the same.

 

[Pete_uk]

I note that in some more recent videos he appears to be in front of a 'green/blue screen' chroma key system. (Think weather forecasts)
So I wonder if he has sensibly moved out of Kyev.

 

[yorksrob]

Given that Putin is threatening gas supplies in Western Europe, it just illustrates how much the West needs to fully disengage from the FSB state in Moscow.

Even if the war in Ukraine ended tomorrow, there should be no return to trade and ordinary relations with the Moscow government whatsoever.

 

[Annetts key]

Latest enemy losses as reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 01.04 Oriêntovno Kaly / The total combat losses from the enemy from 24/02 to 01.04. were approximately:
personal warehouse / personnel - close / about 17700 people,
tanks / tanks ‒ 625 od,
combat armored machines / APV ‒ 1751 od,
artillery systems / artillery systems - 316 od,
RSZV / MLRS - 96 from,
PPO / Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 54 of,
planes / aircraft - 143 od,
helicopters / helicopters - 131 acres,
car equipment / vehicles - 1220 od,
ships / boats / cutters - 7 from,
tank with PMM / fuel tanks - 76,
UAV operational-tactical level - 85.
Special equipment / special equipment - 24.
Luscious installations OTRK / TRK / mobile SRBM system - 4.
The data is getting more precise. The calculation is complicated by the high intensity of combat. / Data are being updated. The calculation is complicated by the high intensity of hostilities.
Beat the occupant! Together we will win!
Strike the occupier! Let's win together!
#stoprussia

(Note that the above is an automatic translation from Ukrainian to English, so apologies about the language).



(Picture shows the above information in Ukrainian text, as published on the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine).

If theses unverified figures are even a significant fraction of the Russian losses, this war has gone even worse for them than anyone imagined.

It means for Russia, this is turning out to be a extremely expensive adventure. It also makes me wonder how long they can continue to fight this war if they continue to experience this level of losses.

 

[najaB]

It means for Russia, this is turning out to be a extremely expensive adventure. It also makes me wonder how long they can continue to fight this war if they continue to experience this level of losses.

This is likely the reason for their recent "Mission Accomplished" announcement.

The reason that the narrative is now "We never wanted Kiev" is because they realise that there's no way that they have the men and equipment to take Kyiv.

 

[Cloud Strife]

If theses unverified figures are even a significant fraction of the Russian losses, this war has gone even worse for them than anyone imagined.

These numbers have to be taken with a pinch of salt, but even the Americans are publicly saying that over 10,000 have died at the hands of the Ukrainian forces so far. As long as the equipment keeps coming, Ukraine is showing that they can simply keep killing Russians.

The reason that the narrative is now "We never wanted Kiev" is because they realise that there's no way that they have the men and equipment to take Kyiv.

I suspect that the experience in Mariupol is also telling them what awaits them if they try and get into Kyiv. We know the city is guarded to the teeth, and plenty of people were making videos showing that they wanted nothing more than to kill Russians that tried to get in.

The other interesting question is - what's going on in Belgorod? If this is really a Ukrainian attack, then this could be a clear warning by the UAF that they are capable of striking at (and taking out) strategic Russian facilities. It also raises huge questions over the Russian air defences, which will only add to the worries of the Russian military leadership.

 

[najaB]

The other interesting question is - what's going on in Belgorod? If this is really a Ukrainian attack, then this could be a clear warning by the UAF that they are capable of striking at (and taking out) strategic Russian facilities.

Russia are reported to have said that it was a Ukrainian attack:

Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out an air strike against a fuel depot in the Russian city of Belgorod on Friday, an incident the Kremlin said set an unfavourable tone for peace talks with Kyiv.

Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said he could not confirm or deny reports of Ukrainian involvement in the strike as he did not have military information. The Ukrainian Defence Ministry and the general staff did not respond to requests for comment.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrai...s-belgorod-regional-official-says-2022-04-01/

 

[AlterEgo]

These numbers have to be taken with a pinch of salt, but even the Americans are publicly saying that over 10,000 have died at the hands of the Ukrainian forces so far. As long as the equipment keeps coming, Ukraine is showing that they can simply keep killing Russians.

The US Intelligence community got a significant "win" - after a decade or more of making bad predictions - with their accurate prediction of full scale invasion despite most commentators believing otherwise. I would be most inclined to trust their numbers of all the sources available. Certainly, the news abound on social media cannot help but give the impression Russia has sustained staggering losses.

The materiel supplied by allies is making a huge difference. Every Russian soldier killed is good news; the more dead there are, the less easy the war becomes to sell back on the home front.

 

[najaB]

Every Russian soldier killed is good news; the more dead there are, the less easy the war becomes to sell back on the home front.

I don't know if I'm conflating "good news" with "a good thing", but given all the examples of lost-looking captured conscript soldiers saying that they don't know why they are there, or that they were told that they were just going on exercises, I can't take any joy in their deaths. Even the ones who might agree with the cause but who were sent into battle with outdated/faulty equipment due to the corruption and greed of their senior officers make me sad rather than happy.

The only person in this whole sorry debacle whose death would bring me any joy would be one V. Putin.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Russia are reported to have said that it was a Ukrainian attack:

It's probably one of those things where it doesn't suit either side to admit to it. A false flag attack by the Russians would be nothing unusual if they wanted to whip up support for the war, but at the same time, Ukraine can plausibly deny it while frightening people in Russia.

The materiel supplied by allies is making a huge difference. Every Russian soldier killed is good news; the more dead there are, the less easy the war becomes to sell back on the home front.

While on one hand, I cannot comprehend why the Russian people support this war, on the other hand, what's happening in Hungary is beyond belief. Orban has managed to turn 30-40% of the population into being pro-Russia, and that's in a supposedly Western country. For me, that explains a lot as to why the ordinary Russians are supporting this war, and shows the power of TV/newspapers in rural areas.

Speculation yet again, but I wouldn't be surprised if Kherson becomes the definitive battle in this war. If Ukraine retakes Kherson while stopping Russia at Izium, then I can see the RF vanishing very quickly from Melitpol and Mariupol.

 

[hst43102]

The only person in this whole sorry debacle whose death would bring me any joy would be one V. Putin.

And Lavrov. He's just as bad as Putin.

 

[Giugiaro]

I don't know if I'm conflating "good news" with "a good thing", but given all the examples of lost-looking captured conscript soldiers saying that they don't know why they are there, or that they were told that they were just going on exercises, I can't take any joy in their deaths. Even the ones who might agree with the cause but who were sent into battle with outdated/faulty equipment due to the corruption and greed of their senior officers make me sad rather than happy.

My thoughts exactly. Any Ukrainian and Russian soldier killed in battle is as much a humanitarian failure as any civilian casualty.
They're young, perfectly healthy people with their lives cut short because of a 69 year old monster with an ever shorter neck and ever bigger cheeks.

 

[Cloud Strife]

And Lavrov. He's just as bad as Putin.

Speaking of Lavrov, he's just met (or will meet?) Modi in India.

You do have to wonder how China will react to the growing bromance between India and Russia.

 

[GusB]

I've just read an article discussing mutiny and desertion among the Russian soldiers. The regulars are relatively poorly paid, and the conscripts are on a pittance.

Ukraine: are reports of Russian troops mutinying and deserting true? It’s happened before

There are reports of very low morale among Russian troops in Ukraine.

theconversation.com

Why are there so many desertions in Ukraine?

Defection and desertion in combat is common. Eventually, wartime hardships, poor combat performance and a waning ideological commitment to the cause can spur troops to jump ship. But the Russians are already experiencing low morale and a lack of troop cooperation only a few weeks into the conflict.

Research suggests that morale is especially low in militaries that have been de-professionalised. In spite of reports that Russia’s army was attempting to reform its structure, Russia’s own military reported in 2014 that more than 25% of its personnel could not operate their infantry equipment.

Though the overall budget for the military increased as a result of Putin’s reforms, pay for troops did not. Contract soldiers (who sign up for a period of three years) are paid 200% less than US counterparts, at about US$1,000 (£760) a month, while the conscripts are paid only US$25 a month, and receive little training. All of this contributes to low morale and raises the risk of desertion and defection.

I'm guessing that the situation in Russia is not much different to here, in that it's often young people from poorer backgrounds who join up in the hope of more stable job prospects. Even for those who choose to sign up, is it actually that much of a choice? I do have sympathy for those who found themselves in this situation with no clear reason why. No wonder they're turning on their commanding officers.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I'm guessing that the situation in Russia is not much different to here, in that it's often young people from poorer backgrounds who join up in the hope of more stable job prospects. Even for those who choose to sign up, is it actually that much of a choice? I do have sympathy for those who found themselves in this situation with no clear reason why. No wonder they're turning on their commanding officers.

From what I understand, conscription in Russia is like how it was in Poland before it was abolished. That is, it's not like Cyprus or Finland where it's considered honourable to serve, but rather a case of 'you have to be stupid to actually be conscripted'. The Russian Army has awful problems with hazing of conscripts, so anyone with any means will either bribe their way out or find a medical excuse.

Not a single person in my office in PL did military service, even the bloke in his 60s.

 

[AlterEgo]

I don't know if I'm conflating "good news" with "a good thing", but given all the examples of lost-looking captured conscript soldiers saying that they don't know why they are there, or that they were told that they were just going on exercises, I can't take any joy in their deaths. Even the ones who might agree with the cause but who were sent into battle with outdated/faulty equipment due to the corruption and greed of their senior officers make me sad rather than happy.

The only person in this whole sorry debacle whose death would bring me any joy would be one V. Putin.

Of course, no soldier’s death can be a good thing for them or their families. I recall visiting Moscow in 2000, being on the subway and seeing scores of shaven headed, nubile, teenage soldiers who looked like they could barely tie their laces. Cannon fodder really. The absolute tragedy of this war is hard to comprehend. Incompetent, greedy, corrupt senior officers sending poorly motivated boys into horrible conditions.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

This is likely the reason for their recent "Mission Accomplished" announcement.

The reason that the narrative is now "We never wanted Kiev" is because they realise that there's no way that they have the men and equipment to take Kyiv.

Let's hope the day comes soon when Moscow's message mysteriously suddenly becomes 'Actually, we never really wanted Donbas. Or Crimea. We just needed to make sure that the people there were well treated within Ukraine'

 

[Busaholic]

Russia are reported to have said that it was a Ukrainian attack:



Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrai...s-belgorod-regional-official-says-2022-04-01/

Ukraine are making no comment on the allegation. Given they're not members of NATO, why shouldn't they retaliate in this way? If Putin makes a totally hypocritical big deal about it, his bluff may be called in ways he doesn't like. The only trouble is that Putin, like Hitler, is so obsessed with not being belittled he might react in a totally over-the-top way which really does presage the start of World War Three. I sincerely hope not.

 

[deltic]

I'm guessing that the situation in Russia is not much different to here, in that it's often young people from poorer backgrounds who join up in the hope of more stable job prospects. Even for those who choose to sign up, is it actually that much of a choice? I do have sympathy for those who found themselves in this situation with no clear reason why. No wonder they're turning on their commanding officers.

Many of them aren't even Russians but are from more deprived ethnic groups and one wonders what their loyally to Russia really is.

 

[Bevan Price]

It's probably one of those things where it doesn't suit either side to admit to it. A false flag attack by the Russians would be nothing unusual if they wanted to whip up support for the war, but at the same time, Ukraine can plausibly deny it while frightening people in Russia.



While on one hand, I cannot comprehend why the Russian people support this war, on the other hand, what's happening in Hungary is beyond belief. Orban has managed to turn 30-40% of the population into being pro-Russia, and that's in a supposedly Western country. For me, that explains a lot as to why the ordinary Russians are supporting this war, and shows the power of TV/newspapers in rural areas.

Speculation yet again, but I wouldn't be surprised if Kherson becomes the definitive battle in this war. If Ukraine retakes Kherson while stopping Russia at Izium, then I can see the RF vanishing very quickly from Melitpol and Mariupol.

People can be gullible when they hear / read only one version of the facts. Or when "the system" makes them too afraid to criticise.
And leaders with paranoid / psychopathic tendencies rarely admit that they were wrong. And such people rarely think twice about having "critics" murdered.

And even in USA, there are people who believe that Trump was some kind of "wondergod".

 

[Cloud Strife]

Ukraine are making no comment on the allegation. Given they're not members of NATO, why shouldn't they retaliate in this way? If Putin makes a totally hypocritical big deal about it, his bluff may be called in ways he doesn't like. The only trouble is that Putin, like Hitler, is so obsessed with not being belittled he might react in a totally over-the-top way which really does presage the start of World War Three. I sincerely hope not.

From what I understand, the regional governor has gone ballistic, publicly demanding the head of the air defences and generally having the mother of all meltdowns. If we assume that this was indeed a Ukrainian attack, then not only have the Ukrainians badly exposed the Russian air defences in a region where you'd expect them to be on high alert, but they've also shown that it's very easy to attack critical infrastructure using small, cheap and easy to produce helicopters.

I still lean towards a false flag attack to instil fear in the Russian people, but who knows.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Tricky one isn't it. Personally I'm leaning towards it being a Ukrainian attack for several reasons: The videos of helicopters flying very low - we know that the Ukrainian pilots are skilled enough to do that, but from everything we know it seems that most Russian pilots aren't. I would expect that a false flag operation would destroy something smaller or less critical in terms of infrastructure; For example, a bomb in a supermarket would have much more publicity value while also being less damaging to the Russian war logistics. Given how little Putin evidently cares about the lives of civilians, I'd have expected him to favour something like that in a false flag attack. Also, if it was a false flag, would the regional Governor have been publicly so angry? I understand there has been criticism of the air defences on Russian tv too. That doesn't sound like the hallmark of a carefully arranged false flag.

On the other hand, the only reason for any doubt I have is that the Ukrainian Government seems to have been relatively honest in its reporting of event up to now, so it seems a bit unlike them to explicitly deny something they are responsible for. (Maybe there are some military reasons for doing so on this occasion?)

 

[najaB]

On the other hand, the only reason for any doubt I have is that the Ukrainian Government seems to have been relatively honest in its reporting of event up to now, so it seems a bit unlike them to explicitly deny something they are responsible for. (Maybe there are some military reasons for doing so on this occasion?)

Did they actually deny it, or rather refuse to confirm or deny?

 

[takno]

Tricky one isn't it. Personally I'm leaning towards it being a Ukrainian attack for several reasons: The videos of helicopters flying very low - we know that the Ukrainian pilots are skilled enough to do that, but from everything we know it seems that most Russian pilots aren't. I would expect that a false flag operation would destroy something smaller or less critical in terms of infrastructure; For example, a bomb in a supermarket would have much more publicity value while also being less damaging to the Russian war logistics. Given how little Putin evidently cares about the lives of civilians, I'd have expected him to favour something like that in a false flag attack. Also, if it was a false flag, would the regional Governor have been publicly so angry? I understand there has been criticism of the air defences on Russian tv too. That doesn't sound like the hallmark of a carefully arranged false flag.

On the other hand, the only reason for any doubt I have is that the Ukrainian Government seems to have been relatively honest in its reporting of event up to now, so it seems a bit unlike them to explicitly deny something they are responsible for. (Maybe there are some military reasons for doing so on this occasion?)

I suspect it wasn't sanctioned by the government and they're a bit uncomfortable about it, or the US have asked them not to claim responsibility. Although it could easily just be a false flag attack that's misfired so badly that the Ukrainians are happy to just leave it hanging because its scaring the Russian people

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Did they actually deny it, or rather refuse to confirm or deny?

It appears that they have denied it. Initially they refused to confirm or deny, but later on the BBC reported this (link):

Ukraine's top security official, however, denied Ukrainian forces were behind the attack.

"For some reason, they are saying we are behind it. This does not correspond to reality," security council secretary Oleksiy Danilov said.

 

[Annetts key]

The other interesting question is - what's going on in Belgorod? If this is really a Ukrainian attack, then this could be a clear warning by the UAF that they are capable of striking at (and taking out) strategic Russian facilities.

Russia are reported to have said that it was a Ukrainian attack:

Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out an air strike against a fuel depot in the Russian city of Belgorod on Friday, an incident the Kremlin said set an unfavourable tone for peace talks with Kyiv.

Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said he could not confirm or deny reports of Ukrainian involvement in the strike as he did not have military information. The Ukrainian Defence Ministry and the general staff did not respond to requests for comment.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrai...s-belgorod-regional-official-says-2022-04-01/

To be honest, if an adjacent country are attacking your country, why wouldn’t you try to attack their fuel facilities or logistics infrastructure? If you thought you could penetrate their defences, you would want to disrupt their supply chains as much as possible.

For me, assuming the attack drones that they have, have enough range, fuel depots would be an obvious target.

Destroying large amounts of fuel and damaging fuel infrastructure makes it much harder for your enemy to continue to supply their armoured vehicles, and their logistics/supply lines. It’s likely to be more effective than taking out one armoured vehicle, as Russian tanks without any fuel are totally ineffective. And loss of fuel and fuel infrastructure may mean that lots of tanks are denied a resupply of fuel. Especially if you damage or destroy many fuel facilities…