Reports that HS2 Euston terminus may be delayed/cancelled

[zwk500]

Normally I take what is written in the Sun with a pinch of salt, but this has all the hallmarks of a deliberate 'leak' to soften people up for further cutbacks. May be more of a put on hold than a complete abandonment?

To me it has more hallmarks of the Sun making cosmic armageddon out of nothing. It was always intended to stop at OOC first, with Euston opening later. I suspect what's happened is a journalist has got wind of this and then asked the government if Euston might be delayed (which is possible) and then ran with a more exciting headline because they know their readership will buy the paper.

Given the current finacial climate maybe its a case of stop at Birmingham or stop at Old Oak Common. I suspect HS2 only survived the recent round of cuts because it was too far advanced to cancel. Had things been a bit less advance there is no doubt in my mind at the very least it would have been 'postponed'

Maybe, but now we're building 80% of it, it would be madness not to finish the job.

 

[zero]

To the railway, yes. However politically its become about journey times.

That's because the government (or whoever) has completely failed in getting the message across, perhaps deliberately. From other UK forums whenever HS2 comes up the majority of replies still talk about cancelling the whole thing anyone who mentions WCML capacity gets shot down (though occasionally the odd person does learn something new).

Also isn't the other point that since we need an alternative to the WCML anyway, making it "High Speed" or not is pretty insignificant compared to the other costs.

 

[hwl]

Two separate factors
Government finances:
1. Treasury has annual overall public sector investment / infrastructure project expenditure limits.
2. Inflation for these type of projects is rampant and was noticeably higher than CPI before the last 18 months. (Crossrail got hammered by this)
3. Therefore either the limits need to be increase (not realistic for a long time) or the number of projects has to be reduced or projects have to be slowed down to spread out the spending

HS2 issues
a) HS2 is effectively the sum of many smaller projects (i.e. it is a programme)
b) Different sub-element are proceeding at different pace vs plan and varying levels of spend vs plan
c) Euston is further behind than HS2 publicly stated
d) Euston is a mess budget wise
e) Euston isn't critical to HS2 opening
f) slowing down Euston construction is probably more cost effective (there are big monthly overhead costs that get worse with longer build)
g) risk and delays are noticeably different for:
i) plain line section of the OOC-Euston tunnel,
ii) the complex throat tunnel section nearest Euston
iii) the station build

Hence when you put the two issues together the best solution is to slow down some of the more problematic (time, money or both) elements while pushing on at the broadly same pace with some of the others if partial opening can remain on schedule for those elements (e.g. Curson Street to OOC).
"Hams Hall" to WCML connection at Handsacre could still be used at ~50% capacity with out Euston so not much point i slowing that down.
Phase 2a to Crewe is low cost and low risk so may be worth prioritising over faster completion of OOC-Euston and Euston station as it delivers sooner... hence Euston slowed down even more?

The earth works volumes on HS2 start ramping up massively from ~Easter when the mud season ends and ground conditions improve so Q2-4 2023 and 2024 will see massive steps forward in relatively cheap civils

 

[The Planner]

Factor in that Dec 22 on the WCML would be the best you get, you cannot squeeze anything more out of it reliably. Slow the project down and hope inflation comes down and spread the cost further.

 

[Kite159]

Simply won't happen in that way. Political dynamite, open goal for the opposition parties to score 5 times and any incoming Labour government, would quickly reinstate the whole route. Would be politically impossible for a Labour govt to only support that minimal route.

And I wouldn't trust the bloody S*n for a start..

Nah, they will keep the changes but set up a committee to look into it. The committee will cost many millions of pounds to come up with no results.

 

[duncanp]

But there won't be 3tph via the classic line.
The trains will run via HS2, leaving possibly one train via Rugby, on a slower schedule (more stops).
Same for Birmingham, Liverpool and elsewhere.

This raises the question of what will happen to services on the classic line.

Will there still be trains from Manchester and Birmingham to Euston via the classic line, or will these services be cancelled in order to free up paths for trains every 30 minutes from Liverpool and Glasgow to London?

Birmingham in particular would have alternative services to the centre of London using LNWR or Chiltern, and I can't see that it would be popular to cancel these services in order to cajole everyone travelling from the West Midlands to London into using HS2.

 

[zwk500]

This raises the question of what will happen to services on the classic line.

Will there still be trains from Manchester and Birmingham to Euston via the classic line, or will these services be cancelled in order to free up paths for trains every 30 minutes from Liverpool and Glasgow to London?

Birmingham in particular would have alternative services to the centre of London using LNWR or Chiltern, and I can't see that it would be popular to cancel these services in order to cajole everyone travelling from the West Midlands to London into using HS2.

The article is 2 and a half years old, but has a nice diagram: https://www.modernrailways.com/article/what-best-service-pattern-hs2

 

[hwl]

Lord Berkeley has just been banging on on R4 Today about his long-standing view that HS2 money should instead be spent on upgrading existing lines.
That might have been relevant before HS2 construction started, but not when Phase 1/2a are approved and the countryside is being ripped apart to build it.

It is worth remembering that Lord B is a Euston NIMBY (which he doesn't declare on R4!) and has helped contribute to the Euston delays

 

[duncanp]

The article is 2 and a half years old, but has a nice diagram: https://www.modernrailways.com/article/what-best-service-pattern-hs2

Unfortunately I can't read most of that article as it is hidden behind a paywall.

Do you have any idea of what it says?

 

[Parjon]

Maybe, but now we're building 80% of it, it would be madness not to finish the job.

We? The UK govt is, with the money of its citizens. And I disagree. A junk project costing over a hundred billion is very worth cancelling at almost any stage. Especially if there are also follow up investigations to hold people to account.

My city - the UK's fourth biggest - was forecast by HS2's own buried report to be economically damaged by this project due to similar style cost cutting/exclusion. So it's no loss to us.

And given the pathetic time savings offered to us by being wrongfully excluded (and "wrongfully" has been established in facts and figures since extracted by campaigners), it's entirely possible that it will take longer to travel from Liverpool to Central London by hs2 than today.

There are billions of pounds worth of businesses within 15 minutes walk of Euston station, and even more within 25. These are all walks that people currently do.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

As an aside, the award of the main railway contracts for HS2 (track, signalling etc) is supposed to be imminent.
Will they make those awards in the current climate?

 

[zwk500]

Unfortunately I can't read most of that article as it is hidden behind a paywall.

Do you have any idea of what it says?

Does this work: https://fft-keymodernrailways.b-cdn...mported/2020-06-19/img_58_1.jpg?itok=OzK8fVB8
[Image showing vector map of south WCML]

In essence, Avanti would have 4tph: 1tph to Each of Manchester and Scotland via Birmingham Calling Watford Jn and MKC, and Wolves and Chester calling MKC and Rugby.
LNWR would also have more services on the south WCML, with the existing Liverpools and Crewes maintained but with stops added.

 

[Tetchytyke]

After bulldozing half of Camden, we know how this ends: a terminus at Old Oak Common, and selling the land around Euston off at a huge loss.

HS2 has always been good for the construction companies and bad for everyone else.

 

[Grimsby town]

N

It is worth remembering that Lord B is a Euston NIMBY (which he doesn't declare on R4!) and has helped contribute to the Euston delays

Berkley used to support HS2. There's articles written by him in the early 2010s about how important it is for freight capacity. Yet he now sees it as useless and his ideas of upgrades should be done instead. He seemed to change his mind when his Euston Cross underground station was rejected. Similarly his partner in crime Byng had his rail spur from Coventry to Birmingham Interchange HS2 Station rejected....

Cutting parts of HS2 won't lead to more investment anywhere in the UK. It's classic Tory ideology of making sure they limit expenditure at the cost of everything else. There's no wonder HS2 is causing inflationary pressure. Why would any sensible construction or raw materials firm invest in expanding capacity when infrastructure projects are constantly rumoured to be cut in this country?

 

[Winthorpe]

Gosh, it's depressing. I really thought the full Euston - Birmingham leg, at least, was certain to go ahead.

It's that phrase - again - that sums up most big infrastructure projects in this country: spoil the ship for a ha'porth of tar!

 

[Snow1964]

Maybe, but now we're building 80% of it, it would be madness not to finish the job.

One of the problems was it was a very central London centric line, but that doesn't mean people want to go to Euston daily. There has been a shift away from visiting London since pandemic anyway.

There are theoretically options to pare down Euston further, eg put in the HS1-HS2 connecting line (even single track) and could easily run 3 trains an hour to the already built spare platforms at Stratford or Ebbsfleet.

Does it really matter if some trains serve Old Oak and Stratford instead of Euston, as one of those might be nearer some peoples start/finish point anyway.

 

[nlogax]

It's that phrase - again - that sums up most big infrastructure projects in this country: spoil the ship for a ha'porth of tar!

I don't think this sort of snipping away to make a project worth less than the sum of its parts is a uniquely British disease but we're so good at it. Very much hoping these rumours aren't based in any sort of reality.

 

[Parjon]

Hands up who is going to Acton or Stratford...

 

[zwk500]

One of the problems was it was a very central London centric line, but that doesn't mean people want to go to Euston daily. There has been a shift away from visiting London since pandemic anyway.

There are theoretically options to pare down Euston further, eg put in the HS1-HS2 connecting line (even single track) and could easily run 3 trains an hour to the already built spare platforms at Stratford or Ebbsfleet.

Does it really matter if some trains serve Old Oak and Stratford instead of Euston, as one of those might be nearer some peoples start/finish point anyway.

Building the link line doesn't help with cost does it?
Also the domestic platforms on HS1 are 200m only. You could have converted Stratfords out platforms, to the gnashing of teeth at the loss of regional eurostars.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Jan 2023 ==

Hands up who is going to Acton or Stratford...

Tbf Stratford is a big destination.

I don't think this sort of snipping away to make a project worth less than the sum of its parts is a uniquely British disease but we're so good at it. Very much hoping these rumours aren't based in any sort of reality.

It's definitely not uniquely british, happens all the time on the Continent as well, but yes we are good at it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But there won't be 3tph via the classic line.
The trains will run via HS2, leaving possibly one train via Rugby, on a slower schedule (more stops).
Same for Birmingham, Liverpool and elsewhere.

This doesn't seem to be bothering people at the moment - LNR trains are absolutely rammed, while Avanti ones to Birmingham are quiet.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Jan 2023 ==

Tbf Stratford is a big destination.

Not from outside London.

 

[norbitonflyer]

If you're going to various parts of Southern England then continuing to Euston and either getting the Victoria line or Thameslink is going to be more attractive than changing onto Crossrail and changing again.

Overground from Old Oak to Clapham Junction?

 

[zwk500]

Not from outside London.

Fair

Overground from Old Oak to Clapham Junction?

IF they build the new Overground stations (big IF) to get to anywhere in Kent would still need 2 or 3 further changes. If they don't it's an even longer walk. Thameslink also offers more journeys and easier interchange.

 

[popeter45]

IF euston got scrapped for now long term i could give scope for realignment as possibly as east/west undeground thru lines that has higer capacity than terminating platforms (akin to paddington crossrail), and could offer HS1 connections
in reality cant see Euston getting scrapped anyhow

 

[camflyer]

Factor in that Dec 22 on the WCML would be the best you get, you cannot squeeze anything more out of it reliably. Slow the project down and hope inflation comes down and spread the cost further.

Of course further delays just increases the eventual cost - but then it becomes a problem for a future government to have to deal with. Minimising costs for the current Chancellor is the hallmark of UK infrastructure planning.

 

[Snow1964]

Just announced on news

A Department for Transport (DfT) spokesperson said the government remained committed to "delivering HS2 to Manchester, as confirmed in the Autumn Statement".

But not commenting on Old Oak -Euston completion

 

[Howardh]

This raises the question of what will happen to services on the classic line.

Will there still be trains from Manchester and Birmingham to Euston via the classic line, or will these services be cancelled in order to free up paths for trains every 30 minutes from Liverpool and Glasgow to London?

Birmingham in particular would have alternative services to the centre of London using LNWR or Chiltern, and I can't see that it would be popular to cancel these services in order to cajole everyone travelling from the West Midlands to London into using HS2.

To me a mere passenger, stopping short of Euston would render the whole thing pointless. Why spend billions shaving 3/4hr off the journey from Manchester when you add 3/4hr on at the other end? Madness. If the classic line was unused from Manchester, yet trains ran Glasgow/Wigan/Warrington/Euston and actually arrived in central London rather than a HS2 outpost then wouldn't folks in western Manchester go to Wigan/Warrington and catch the traditional trains?

Although this is a Sun report *cough cough* the worry is it hasn't been officially denied as I read it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Jan 2023 ==

Just announced on news

A Department for Transport (DfT) spokesperson said the government remained committed to "delivering HS2 to Manchester, as confirmed in the Autumn Statement".

...but not (committed to) Central London (Euston)???

 

[dk1]

Oh why do the government keep doing this? Just get on with the darn thing & do it properly.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Oh why do the government keep doing this? Just get on with the darn thing & do it properly.

Or have the guts to bin it. But "death by a thousand cuts" is just a waste of money. Build it or don't. Building it but only to West London suburbia is nonsensical.

 

[dk1]

Or have the guts to bin it. But "death by a thousand cuts" is just a waste of money. Build it or don't. Building it but only to West London suburbia is nonsensical.

I’m sure it will run in complete form albeit with a further delay. Just don’t get why nothing in this country gets done as it should. Always seem to want to cut a corner or cheapen everything.

 

[Howardh]

Just get on with the darn thing & do it properly.

Or have the guts to bin it.

One or t'other and make their minds up now before any more money (that could go to the NHS and education) is squandered. I wrote in a previous post, we're "half-a-job Britain".

Personally, if the public aren't allowed a say/referendum on it...after all it's our money, tha House needs an urgent sitting and to decide if this thing goes ahead properly or is scrapped forthwith. And if it were to be scrapped, what plans there would be to upgrade current lines - and to upgrade the companies running trains on it (no names, but beginning with"A").