By the same logic an on time train can often be delayed, so I don't see how this is consistent.
True. Since passengers are not entitled to a refund for a train operating on time (at least not without admin fees), there's no dilemma about whether to claim one, nor whether that should be permissible.
Empirically, I would guess (though don't have data to back this up) that, say, within ~15 minutes of scheduled departure, a much higher % of initially delayed trains will accumulate additional delay, compared to the % of on time trains suddenly getting delayed.
If you want that level of flexibility you could always not purchase your ticket until you arrive at the station and then make your decision. (Admittedly that doesn’t work for the return half of a ticket).
Yes, the return half of a ticket, or an inflexible Advance ticket. I might prefer to travel by train (at the Advance fare) if a train is on time, and by local bus if not.
I guess the point is at what level of delay has the railway not delivered a service that they have contracted to do. I don’t think any reasonable person would regard a one or two minute delay as failing that test.
This is exactly the right question. Not sure how this is defined legally, but in a regional or intercity transport context I would rephrase the question slightly. At what level of delay the railway is no longer offering an unambiguously preferable option to the passenger than all alternatives? These include (a) another mode of transport, or (b) abandoning the trip entirely.
Railways are selling passenger transport between points A and B, departing at time
t. Once that changes to
t + 5, the journey has changed from what they had paid for, and may no longer work. Riding a bus, or cycling, might well be faster or better value for money. And that should probably be the passenger's decision.
That said, if a London to Edinburgh train is a few minutes late, it might not be reasonable for passengers to expect a refund. There are almost certainly no better ways to get to Edinburgh than the original train, even if slightly delayed, and it's not plausible someone would abandon a journey of that distance and cost based on a negligible disruption. Not sure how to define this broadly, however.