Reform UK discussion

[uglymonkey]

And our friend Farage, was a city trader, privately educated and about as much establishment as you could get!!!!

 

[35B]

Continuing the theme of ex-Tories joining Reform UK:

Former Tory MP and council leader Ben Bradley joins Reform UK party

The former MP for Mansfield confirms he is making the switch to Reform after a year out of politics.

www.bbc.co.uk

As has been pointed out before, the "anti-establishment" argument is going to be a very difficult sell if at the next election a number of Reform candidates are previous MPs, especially ones that held ministerial jobs in the previous government.

It'll be easier - the majority of them are "red wall" politicians from quite different backgrounds to the standard Tory MP stereotype.

 

[gg1]

It'll be easier - the majority of them are "red wall" politicians from quite different backgrounds to the standard Tory MP stereotype.

According to his Wikipedia page he was privately educated, as was last week's ex-Tory MP defector Jonathan Gullis. Not exactly 'anti-establishment men of the people'

 

[SuspectUsual]

It'll be easier - the majority of them are "red wall" politicians from quite different backgrounds to the standard Tory MP stereotype.

That's the privately educated Ben Bradley we're talking about right?

 

[35B]

That's the privately educated Ben Bradley we're talking about right?

According to his Wikipedia page he was privately educated, as was last week's ex-Tory MP defector Jonathan Gullis. Not exactly 'anti-establishment men of the people'

Noted - but not a manner that has notably rubbed off on them, or is a particular part of their public persona. Unlike, say, the old Etonians or Wykehamists.

Noting that Nadhim Zahawi (not a red wall politician) didn't get picked up particularly on his education*, I suspect the key difference is between those who went to boarding schools and those who went to day schools.

* - declaration of interest; I'm aware of Zahawi's education because I went to the same school, a few years after him

 

[SuspectUsual]

Noted - but not a manner that has notably rubbed off on them, or is a particular part of their public persona. Unlike, say, the old Etonians or Wykehamists.

Noting that Nadhim Zahawi (not a red wall politician) didn't get picked up particularly on his education*, I suspect the key difference is between those who went to boarding schools and those who went to day schools.

* - declaration of interest; I'm aware of Zahawi's education because I went to the same school, a few years after him

Or looking at it another way, they suppress their natural manner in order to appeal to voters

 

[DarloRich]

Continuing the theme of ex-Tories joining Reform UK:

The Reform Recycler has been fired up once again - turning Tory whoppers into ,erm, Reform whoppers

 

[35B]

Or looking at it another way, they suppress their natural manner in order to appeal to voters

Knowing the "natural manner" of my fellow pupils, I'm not sure whether or not they are suppressing anything. Like Johnson, Farage expresses a version of himself which people for some reason like.

 

[jon0844]

Or looking at it another way, they suppress their natural manner in order to appeal to voters

Which they have to do as they can't run for power on wanting to reduce regulation on businesses, changing tax law, degrading worker rights (and human rights) and do transactional business deals with other nations to feather their own nests.

No, you create culture wars and then offer to help.

 

[Stuwhu]

Reform have got a new supporter, insert your own joke here.

Bonnie Blue endorses Nigel Farage as she claims there are ‘too many people in the UK’​

The adult content creator, real name Tia Billinger, said she is ‘not knowledgeable about politics’, but backed Reform UK’s policies on tax and immigrations​

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/bonnie-blue-nigel-farage-reform-b2882472.html

 

[Acfb]

Reform has just won its first by election in Scotland in Whitburn and Blackburn ward with 32%.

Reform UK has won its first seat in Scotland following a council by-election in West Lothian.

David McLennan took the seat in the Whitburn and Blackburn ward with 1,177 votes.

The turnout for the by-election was 22% of the electorate.

Callum Cox of the SNP came second with 1,026 while Labour’s Samuel McCulloch came third with 627 votes.

I'm surprised they pulled this off under AV TBH, given they were only 4% ahead of the SNP. I haven't had time to analyse all the transfers or lack of yet though presumably from the independent candidates etc.

 

[35B]

Reform has just won its first by election in Scotland in Whitburn and Blackburn ward with 32%.
Reform UK has won its first seat in Scotland following a council by-election in West Lothian.

David McLennan took the seat in the Whitburn and Blackburn ward with 1,177 votes.

The turnout for the by-election was 22% of the electorate.

Callum Cox of the SNP came second with 1,026 while Labour’s Samuel McCulloch came third with 627 votes.

I'm surprised they pulled this off under AV TBH, given they were only 4% ahead of the SNP. I haven't had time to analyse all the transfers or lack of yet though presumably from the independent candidates etc.

Two things leap out at me here. The first is a very low number of votes cast, the second is the abysmal turnout. Both lend themselves to disproportionate influence by highly motivated voters.

I could read that as progress for Reform, or a statement that their cap in Whitburn & Blackburn ward is ~1200 votes. One is based on pure percentages; the other is actually looking at the hard numbers.

The consequences of those are very different.

PS - my instinct is that the truth lies between the two.

 

[JamesT]

Reform has just won its first by election in Scotland in Whitburn and Blackburn ward with 32%.
Reform UK has won its first seat in Scotland following a council by-election in West Lothian.

David McLennan took the seat in the Whitburn and Blackburn ward with 1,177 votes.

The turnout for the by-election was 22% of the electorate.

Callum Cox of the SNP came second with 1,026 while Labour’s Samuel McCulloch came third with 627 votes.


I'm surprised they pulled this off under AV TBH, given they were only 4% ahead of the SNP. I haven't had time to analyse all the transfers or lack of yet though presumably from the independent candidates etc.

Looking at the transfers report from https://www.westlothian.gov.uk/whitburn-blackburn-2025 the thing that jumps out is the large number of non-transferrable votes.
It got all the way through, the penultimate stage was the SNP candidate on 1,387 and Reform on 1,411. Then the SNP candidate was eliminated and the Reform candidate had 1,653. So less than half of those who voted had Reform with any sort of preference on their ballot, but this was still sufficient as they liked the other candidates even less.

 

[greatkingrat]

I'm surprised they pulled this off under AV TBH, given they were only 4% ahead of the SNP. I haven't had time to analyse all the transfers or lack of yet though presumably from the independent candidates etc.

At the penultimate stage it was Reform 1321, SNP 1230, Labour 762. When Labour were eliminated 90 votes went to Reform, 157 to the SNP, and the other 515 had no preference for either. There are many Labour voters in Scotland who would never vote for the SNP, even if Reform is the only alternative.

 

[Acfb]

Two things leap out at me here. The first is a very low number of votes cast, the second is the abysmal turnout. Both lend themselves to disproportionate influence by highly motivated voters.

I could read that as progress for Reform, or a statement that their cap in Whitburn & Blackburn ward is ~1200 votes. One is based on pure percentages; the other is actually looking at the hard numbers.

The consequences of those are very different.

PS - my instinct is that the truth lies between the two.

They have been doing well for the past year though and there have been quite a few by elections in West Lothian and Greater Glasgow over the past year including in this one where they have been consistently pushing 25% so I would expect Reform to easily get 3 MSPs in the central scotland and Lorhians West Region.

The only crumb of comfort for Labour and the SNP is that this is a ward where Independents have always done well at a local level so maybe it could be more apolitical Reform support.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

And our friend Farage, was a city trader, privately educated and about as much establishment as you could get!!!!

But he doesn’t feel establishment. People don’t mind their background but it’s how they carry themselves.

 

[3141]

But he doesn’t feel establishment. People don’t mind their background but it’s how they carry themselves.

That's right. For years he's managed to be seen as something like a beer-drinking regular guy. And as the leader of Reform he can attract support to a greater extent than anyone else.

My view is that we should be prepared for a Reform-led government in 2029. Judging by the number of politicians from other parties switching to Reform, it's not just my view. Expressing surprise or whatever about the upper class privately-educated background of some leading Reform figures is an irrelevant waste of energy.

I feel pretty sure that Reform will now be working hard on new policies in readiness for the next election. Cutting taxation won't be enough, as that also means cutting services, which would adversely affect many of their supporters.

I wish I had a clearer idea about what might be done to make Reform seem less attractive. I recall somebody in the Labour Party recently making the point that they had to get their act together more effectively to counter the attractions of Reform. The best time for that would have been immediately after July 2024. They need to make the most of the next three and a half years, because there's also the strong possibility of what Harold Macmillan called "events" derailing government plans.

 

[DarloRich]

I wish I had a clearer idea about what might be done to make Reform seem less attractive.

you cant for thier core support. They are lost and have gone full cult - you CAN for the wavers.

You keep hammering the racism, the incompetence, the hypocrisy, the USA connection, the craziness that is Reform led councils and the bloke imprisoned for taking Russian back handers.

You get your best performers on the media and you attack on those points ALL the time.

 

[Henffordd]

I think that most (all?) of the MPs who have switched have done so from the Conservative Party. Would it be too cynical to suggest that their interest was more to preserve their seats (and consequent income) than because they necessarily wanted to be in the majority party?

 

[35B]

you cant for thier core support. They are lost and have gone full cult - you CAN for the wavers.

You keep hammering the racism, the incompetence, the hypocrisy, the USA connection, the craziness that is Reform led councils and the bloke imprisoned for taking Russian back handers.

You get your best performers on the media and you attack on those points ALL the time.

I think you focus especially on the economic factors - if you look at where Trump is failing, it's his inability to make people feel richer. The culture wars factors are much more emotional issues, and much less amenable to rational debate.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Dec 2025 ==

I think that most (all?) of the MPs who have switched have done so from the Conservative Party. Would it be too cynical to suggest that their interest was more to preserve their seats (and consequent income) than because they necessarily wanted to be in the majority party?

Yes. In this Parliament, 1 serving MP has joined Reform. Danny Kruger won by a decent margin in 2024 despite the Tories' under-performance, and I suspect is more likely than not to lose now that he's representing Reform.

Those being paraded as joining Reform are typically "red wall" Tories, who lost their seats in 2024 having first won them in 2015 or later. I suspect some career intentions, but also that their moves reflect genuine ideological alignment.

 

[Gloster]

I think that most (all?) of the MPs who have switched have done so from the Conservative Party. Would it be too cynical to suggest that their interest was more to preserve their seats (and consequent income) than because they necessarily wanted to be in the majority party?

There are only two current Reform MPs (of four) who have defected to the party from the Conservatives: Anderson and Kruger. The first defected in March 2024 and the latter in September last. The others are former MPs who, I think, all lost their seats in last year’s election. Surely they can’t be prepared to give up their long-held Conservative loyalties and convictions in the hope that Reform will offer them a more winnable seat?

 

[DarloRich]

I think you focus especially on the economic factors - if you look at where Trump is failing, it's his inability to make people feel richer. The culture wars factors are much more emotional issues, and much less amenable to rational debate.

I agree but you can only do that when they have some actual policies - until then attack on the softer stuff to show how crazy they are - all the time pointing at the USA and saying that is what is coming here.

 

[Tetchytyke]

You keep hammering the racism, the incompetence, the hypocrisy, the USA connection, the craziness that is Reform led councils and the bloke imprisoned for taking Russian back handers.

Steer clear of any of the 'culture wars' nonsense. That is Reform's home pitch. And Reform know that the 'culture wars' nonsense is a purely emotional reaction, and you simply cannot reason with emotion.

We see that with the whole trans thing, look how much media time is devoted to the subject of trans people. The 2021 Census reported that just 262,000 people identified as trans (about 0.5% of the population), but even then the Office for National Statistics has withdrawn this statistic because they now think too many people misunderstood the question and said they were trans when they weren't. The actual number of trans people in the UK is likely to be under 200,000.

200,000 people is nothing more than a rounding error. More people than that have signed up to Jeremy Corbyn's People's Front of Islington/Islington People's Front. But read the BBC and you'd think there were millions of trans kids running around, spreading their woke ideology all over the place, desperate to put on a dress so they can go and have a poo in the ladies' toilets.

Keep Reform where they squirm: the economy. Nail them down to specifics, force them to make up policy on the hoof. Farage can't do the details, so pin him down on the details. But even that will only work if people start to feel richer by 2029.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Dec 2025 ==

I agree but you can only do that when they have some actual policies - until then attack on the softer stuff to show how crazy they are

Attacking the craziness won't work, for the same reason why it didn't work in America.

Every time Farage opens his mouth and says something, Labour should ask one question: how? "I'll deport everyone." How? "I'll cut waste to cut the tax bill." How?

 

[DarloRich]

Keep Reform where they squirm: the economy. Nail them down to specifics, force them to make up policy on the hoof. Farage can't do the details, so pin him down on the details. But even that will only work if people start to feel richer by 2029.

I think you get at Farage by attacking his paper-thin snowflake skin - like with his school racism allegations and his top mate ( who he never met) going down for taking Russian backhanders

YES - his cranks wont care but sensible real people do. They don't want to be associated with that kind of thing. It also has the benefit of keeping him quiet allowing you to attack the rest of Reform.

BTW: I am not suggesting fighting "culture wars" - I am suggesting using items that wound Farage to keep the pressure on while challenging him on substance/detial.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I think you get at Farage by attacking his paper-thin snowflake skin - like with his school racism allegations and his top mate ( who he never met) going down for taking Russian backhanders

The school racism is the one soft issue that I'd keep the pressure on about. He was (allegedly) saying some incredibly anti-Semitic things to his school-mates, keep the pressure on there. The anti-Semitism will wound him.

Because the left have taken a pro-Palestinian position, much of the right have taken a pro-Israeli position. Yet the right wing's poster boy was (allegedly) telling his Jewish classmates that they should be put in an oven for being Jewish. Drive that wedge in a bit further, properly hammer it in. Let's see if the right are quite so upset about anti-Semitism when it's coming from one of their own.

 

[35B]

I think you get at Farage by attacking his paper-thin snowflake skin - like with his school racism allegations and his top mate ( who he never met) going down for taking Russian backhanders

YES - his cranks wont care but sensible real people do. They don't want to be associated with that kind of thing. It also has the benefit of keeping him quiet allowing you to attack the rest of Reform.

BTW: I am not suggesting fighting "culture wars" - I am suggesting using items that wound Farage to keep the pressure on while challenging him on substance/detial.

There are two separate issues. Sure, push at Farage for things like his schooldays or his loyalty to Russia, because that puts his personality on show, without him being able to control it - and his bared teeth repel, rather than attract. But do not put the actual cultural issues on display, for the reasons others have given. Most people, most of the time, don't care about them - which makes them more effective for him with his audience and those who do care. And, as we saw with that £350m bus, saying "it's false" just gives the lies publicity.

Because the left have taken a pro-Palestinian position, much of the right have taken a pro-Israeli position. Yet the right wing's poster boy was (allegedly) telling his Jewish classmates that they should be put in an oven for being Jewish. Drive that wedge in a bit further, properly hammer it in. Let's see if the right are quite so upset about anti-Semitism when it's coming from one of their own.

I'm not so sure - it's an emotional position, and it's really about whether people support Netanyahu. Again, keep it on what he is, and don't fall into the trap of pulling the spotlight out to look at the wider issue - he'll use any opportunity he gets.

 

[DarloRich]

The school racism is the one soft issue that I'd keep the pressure on about. He was (allegedly) saying some incredibly anti-Semitic things to his school-mates, keep the pressure on there. The anti-Semitism will wound him.

Because the left have taken a pro-Palestinian position, much of the right have taken a pro-Israeli position. Yet the right wing's poster boy was (allegedly) telling his Jewish classmates that they should be put in an oven for being Jewish. Drive that wedge in a bit further, properly hammer it in. Let's see if the right are quite so upset about anti-Semitism when it's coming from one of their own.

exactly - that's what I mean.

I think you can also get at him about Russia

Sure, push at Farage for things like his schooldays or his loyalty to Russia, because that puts his personality on show, without him being able to control it - and his bared teeth repel, rather than attract. But do not put the actual cultural issues on display, for the reasons others have given

yes - that is what I mean. You cant beat on Reform Culture Wars. You can damage on personality traits and decision making.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I'm not so sure - it's an emotional position, and it's really about whether people support Netanyahu.

I agree in general, especially as the biggest anti-Semitism campaigners have suspiciously close links with Likud. But in this case it paints him into a corner.

The man (allegedly) singing songs about gassing the Jews suddenly getting all upset at anti-Semitism in the UK. Tell me more Nigel, were you so upset about anti-Semitism when you were making hiss hiss jokes.

That said, the Daily Telegraph were positively soiling their underpants about what Primal Scream did last week but simply dismiss the allegations about Farage as "Farage Derangement Syndrome."

 

[35B]

I agree in general, especially as the biggest anti-Semitism campaigners have suspiciously close links with Likud. But in this case it paints him into a corner.

The man (allegedly) singing songs about gassing the Jews suddenly getting all upset at anti-Semitism in the UK. Tell me more Nigel, were you so upset about anti-Semitism when you were making hiss hiss jokes.

That said, the Daily Telegraph were positively soiling their underpants about what Primal Scream did last week but simply dismiss the allegations about Farage as "Farage Derangement Syndrome."

Precisely. Which is why the attack needs to get at him, and undermine him in the eyes of his potential supporters, not get bogged down in the minutiae of political details that most eyes glaze over at and, more importantly, give him and his backers scope to create a smokescreen.

 

[Harpo]

The school racism is the one soft issue that I'd keep the pressure on about.

That one could still have legs. The Trojan horse’s owner, Tice, branded the accusers ‘liars’. Let’s see whether anyone considers themselves slandered.

I’ve also noted the lack of media scrutiny of Farage’s contrary positions on Lucy Connolly and Fayaz Khan.