Reform UK discussion

[Krokodil]

The people funding Reform would like that to happen very very much.

Look at how many of them made their fortunes in 1990s Russia.

Chaos is lucrative.

Chaos is busy being lucrative in the US at the moment. Lots of insider trading and short-selling over there at the moment.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Chaos is busy being lucrative in the US at the moment. Lots of insider trading and short-selling over there at the moment.

Must admit I've long thought short selling should not be legal. It has no possible positive effect whatsoever.

 

[Krokodil]

Must admit I've long thought short selling should not be legal. It has no possible positive effect whatsoever.

Lots of other things currently going on in the US aren't legal either. But the law is just a piece of paper, it only has meaning as long as people are prepared to defend it.

 

[JamesT]

Must admit I've long thought short selling should not be legal. It has no possible positive effect whatsoever.

An important part of markets is price discovery. Short sellers help provide a counterbalance of downward pressure on prices. Various countries have banned it over the years, so there’s plenty of evidence that banning it doesn’t actually make the market any more stable.

 

[Cowley]

An important part of markets is price discovery. Short sellers help provide a counterbalance of downward pressure on prices. Various countries have banned it over the years, so there’s plenty of evidence that banning it doesn’t actually make the market any more stable.

I think we’re going to be heading well off topic if we carry on discussing this stuff.

It might be worth a separate topic but it’s not for this thread.

Thanks

 

[Cloud Strife]

Labour would probably require a coalition of the Lib Dems, Greens and SNP to form a coalition.

Labour requiring the SNP would almost certainly mean a massive concession in respects to devolution. The SNP wouldn't enter such a coalition without a large and substantial concession, and one other problem with the SNP is that it would almost certainly result in the SNP voting on many laws that would only apply to England. Having said that, relying on the SNP might finally get Labour to push through constitutional reform and a move to federalism, so that England can finally have their own parliament.

Something that isn't understood enough is that any party, regardless of its intentions/policies, going from 5 seats to over 300, is going to collapse the country.

Actually, I don't agree with this. The bulk of the work is done by civil servants at every level of government, and new MPs receive a lot of guidance on how to do things. In the very hypothetical situation of Reform winning a majority by themselves, what would cause problems would be the lack of loyalty to the party, as many of those MPs would be inexperienced and difficult to control.

What would likely happen would be the same as has happened elsewhere: they would quickly go from "against the system" to "the system" in a few weeks. Many difficult decisions would simply be put off or ignored, they'd break most of their promises, and you'd see them quickly becoming nothing more than yet another establishment party. The same thing happened in Greece with Syriza, the same thing is happening in the autonomous communities in Spain with Vox, the same thing is happening with Meloni in Italy, etc etc.

I'd also point out that they would have terrible problems with the House of Lords. Meanwhile, they'd almost certainly have terrible relations with Scotland and Wales, potentially leading to SNP and Plaid Cymru majorities and both parties ending up as kingmakers in the next General Election after that. Reform are now talking about scrapping the Welsh Senedd, which will simply push more votes to Plaid Cymru in the election next year. If Plaid win the election and with it, the First Minister, it's almost certain that Labour will be forced to give Wales the same level of devolution as Scotland and Northern Ireland.

I'd say however, that Reform are only doing well at the minute because the Tories are in a mess. Badenoch is hopeless as a leader, and she's leaving a lot of typical Tory voters with no other choice than to switch to Reform. In a sense, it's a terrible shame that Penny Mordaunt lost her seat, because she would have eaten Farage and friends for breakfast.

 

[Class73Electro]

Question / Thought:

NF decides to retire from the public life tomorrow, goes off to the US or wherever, never to be seen on British TV again.

What happens to Reform? How much of the Reform vote would be people voting for good Ol' Nige from the pub?

 

[bleeder4]

Question / Thought:

NF decides to retire from the public life tomorrow, goes off to the US or wherever, never to be seen on British TV again.

What happens to Reform? How much of the Reform vote would be people voting for good Ol' Nige from the pub?

I vote for Reform because of Nigel. Like him or loathe him, he IS Reform. The party has good ideas but without Nigel they would struggle to communicate those ideas in a way that resonates with the public. Therefore I think they may struggle to maintain traction without him.

 

[Sorcerer]

Question / Thought:

NF decides to retire from the public life tomorrow, goes off to the US or wherever, never to be seen on British TV again.

What happens to Reform? How much of the Reform vote would be people voting for good Ol' Nige from the pub?

Personally I think that'd lose them some momentum given so much of the populist right is centred around the idea of a single glorious leader. So much of MAGA is centred around Trump and would likely collapse under JD Vance, so it's not unlikely that Reform might collapse under Richard Tice given how much of it is centred on Farage and how much of Reform and UKIP's electoral success was owed to him.

The only reason I'm not so confident in their total collapse is because of the massive disillusionment of the two mainstream parties, whereas in the US the two mains are the only real choices. Plus the populist right in the UK have more faces they could turn to such as Rupert Lowe or maybe even Stephen Yaxley-Lennon Tommy Robinson or brining back Alexander Boris Johnson at a stretch.

 

[SteveP29]

Question / Thought:

NF decides to retire from the public life tomorrow, goes off to the US or wherever, never to be seen on British TV again.

What happens to Reform? How much of the Reform vote would be people voting for good Ol' Nige from the pub?

He might have to (and I wish he would) if the press go after him over his stamp duty 'mishap' like they did with Rayner over hers.
Kuenessssssbbbberg (I know) got him rattled yesterday, as did Beth Rigby, met with beligerence and anger to both, rather than acceptance and deflection.

 

[Cloud Strife]

What happens to Reform?

They implode very quickly. It's a one man party, and they simply don't have the structures in place to survive him going. With most established parties, a leader is here today, gone tomorrow, but the branches will still be doing the political work. If Farage goes, so do most of the supporters, because he (quite consciously) prevents anyone else from being in the limelight.

 

[nr758123]

They implode very quickly. It's a one man party, and they simply don't have the structures in place to survive him going. With most established parties, a leader is here today, gone tomorrow, but the branches will still be doing the political work. If Farage goes, so do most of the supporters, because he (quite consciously) prevents anyone else from being in the limelight.

A personality cult without its personality will fall apart very quickly.

 

[SuspectUsual]

If Farage goes, so do most of the supporters, because he (quite consciously) prevents anyone else from being in the limelight.

And indeed the board of the company party is 7 people - Farage, 3 of his appointees, and 3 voted for by the subscribers members. All about him

 

[brad465]

I actually don't think Farage wants power (though no doubt many close to him do). He is ultimately a grifter and is far more successful carping from the side-lines and convincing others to adopt his agenda, which has gone very successfully for him since 2014. Even as an MP his attendance record in parliament is low, and his constituency almost nil. But as soon as he has serious power, he is ultimately responsible for dealing with the problems he says exist, where the whole narrative falls apart. Even if he does achieve something, there will be a large share of his previous support saying he's not gone far enough, especially as those on both extremes are very uncompromising.

But for as long as he has no serious power, he can claim had he been in charge, x issue wouldn't have happened as he'd have done y about it, where y is an untested "solution".

 

[SuspectUsual]

I actually don't think Farage wants power (though no doubt many close to him do). He is ultimately a grifter and is far more successful carping from the side-lines and convincing others to adopt his agenda, which has gone very successfully for him since 2014. Even as an MP his attendance record in parliament is low, and his constituency almost nil. But as soon as he has serious power, he is ultimately responsible for dealing with the problems he says exist, where the whole narrative falls apart. Even if he does achieve something, there will be a large share of his previous support saying he's not gone far enough, especially as those on both extremes are very uncompromising.

But for as long as he has no serious power, he can claim had he been in charge, x issue wouldn't have happened as he'd have done y about it, where y is an untested "solution".

I think there's a lot of truth in this, and I think there are strong similarities to a couple of relatively recent party leaders:

Boris Johnson - wanted to have been Prime Minister but hated the day-to-day slog and the mundanity of a lot of the job, but can now say he fulfilled the ambition and can make the big bucks

Jeremy Corbyn - defied the party whip about 500 times and was great at saying what was wrong, but no good at fixing it

 

[jon0844]

While the Tories are struggling right now, it's clear that they're likely to get funding and a new leader in the run up to the next election. I am sure they can regain support as people 'forget' about their record. It's certain Reform will have the vote split, as well as split with other parties that seem to be taking a harder line with things like immigration.

Personally, until proven otherwise, I'll continue to think that Farage represents Farage and if he can defect to the Tories and become leader, he absolutely will.

With apparently yet another Reform councillor being arrested this week, and plenty of others proving they don't know what they're doing (or, like Boris, simply don't want to actually do the work), it's very likely Reform will implode long before the next election. Heck, they couldn't even keep all their MPs!

And now Farage is getting most upset and offended that people are asking tough questions. Again, between now and 2029 it could all go very wrong - especially if Reform continues to get associated with any protests and riots that the hard right are desperately hoping will kick off (but so far, haven't).

 

[Harpo]

I actually don't think Farage wants power (though no doubt many close to him do). He is ultimately a grifter and is far more successful carping from the side-lines and convincing others to adopt his agenda, which has gone very successfully for him since 2014. Even as an MP his attendance record in parliament is low, and his constituency almost nil. But as soon as he has serious power, he is ultimately responsible for dealing with the problems he says exist, where the whole narrative falls apart. Even if he does achieve something, there will be a large share of his previous support saying he's not gone far enough, especially as those on both extremes are very uncompromising.

But for as long as he has no serious power, he can claim had he been in charge, x issue wouldn't have happened as he'd have done y about it, where y is an untested "solution".

Totally agree with your analysis of Farage. I seem him wanting the ‘Former PM’ kudos and its £££ without the graft, same as Boris.

I suspect Tice wants to be PM and has employed Farage as the Trojan horse.

 

[dosxuk]

Actually, I don't agree with this. The bulk of the work is done by civil servants at every level of government, and new MPs receive a lot of guidance on how to do things. In the very hypothetical situation of Reform winning a majority by themselves, what would cause problems would be the lack of loyalty to the party, as many of those MPs would be inexperienced and difficult to control.

What would likely happen would be the same as has happened elsewhere: they would quickly go from "against the system" to "the system" in a few weeks. Many difficult decisions would simply be put off or ignored, they'd break most of their promises, and you'd see them quickly becoming nothing more than yet another establishment party. The same thing happened in Greece with Syriza, the same thing is happening in the autonomous communities in Spain with Vox, the same thing is happening with Meloni in Italy, etc etc.

If they were to win, I can see them doing the same things they have attempted at their councils - to review what the civil service does and then dismantle the bits that aren't needed. The problems this will cause have already been seen at council level - no work being done because of the reviews, and then the reviews coming back "wrong" when they find out that the majority of people are doing things that need to be done and there isn't actually all that much that can just be trimmed off with no repercussions. Then it'll turn into a US-style loyalty test - you have to support Dear Leader, regardless of the damage that could do to the country - which will lead to a similar exodus of expertise.

Farage isn't stupid - he doesn't want to win and become PM - it's a lot of work and if you've spent your entire political career saying there are easy solutions to things and they turn out to not be so easy after all, it can come back to bite you hard. If it looks likely that they are heading to a win, I can see him leaving the party to retire (again) to drop the support levels, only to come back just before the next election as leader (again) to boost the numbers. I think he would like to be official leader of the opposition, especially for the PMQ's grandstanding he could pull off.

 

[jon0844]

I agree he probably wouldn't want to be PM for too long, but I'm not so sure he wouldn't be willing to give it a go for a bit for the status (and the additional money he can command doing speeches around the world afterwards).

He certainly won't want to do any work though and when he does eventually get booted out, or gets bored and resigned, he'll still be able to spin that he did a fantastic job and it was the woke lefty communists that forced him out - thus the grift battle goes on..

Even if he DID want to do the job and gave it 100% effort, he still wouldn't be able to do half of what he promises.

 

[styles]

I actually don't think Farage wants power (though no doubt many close to him do). He is ultimately a grifter and is far more successful carping from the side-lines and convincing others to adopt his agenda, which has gone very successfully for him since 2014. Even as an MP his attendance record in parliament is low, and his constituency almost nil. But as soon as he has serious power, he is ultimately responsible for dealing with the problems he says exist, where the whole narrative falls apart. Even if he does achieve something, there will be a large share of his previous support saying he's not gone far enough, especially as those on both extremes are very uncompromising.

I can see your point of view, but I disagree. Farage's intention has never really been to turn up as 1 member out of 650 and try and swing a vote on some immigration or border policy, much like it wasn't his intention to bee 1 MEP turning up alongside 719 others to try and persuade the body to dissolve themselves.

He does, if nothing else, have strong convictions regarding topics like immigration, and he's here for it. I do believe he wants to enact his changes, not just snipe from the sidelines. He has struggled previously through a combination of FPTP (UKIP in 2015 general election got 1/8th of the vote share but only one MP, for example), and people losing interest when his parties lose elections.

I couldn't tell you what he might do on primary school education or cancer treatment, but I fully believe he would do his utmost to follow through on his immigration policies.

 

[SuspectUsual]

I can see your point of view, but I disagree. Farage's intention has never really been to turn up as 1 member out of 650 and try and swing a vote on some immigration or border policy, much like it wasn't his intention to bee 1 MEP turning up alongside 719 others to try and persuade the body to dissolve themselves.

All well and good, but as Roy Keane might say, it’s his job to turn up.

 

[Bevan Price]

Reform leaders seem to be climate change unbelievers, and, like Trump & Badenoch, they want us to use more oil and gas. The consequence - vote Reform and you get more storms, floods and wildfires.

And, despite some of their comments, would you trust Reform with keeping NHS as a basically free universal service ?

 

[OhNoAPacer]

I can see your point of view, but I disagree. Farage's intention has never really been to turn up as 1 member out of 650 and try and swing a vote on some immigration or border policy, much like it wasn't his intention to bee 1 MEP turning up alongside 719 others to try and persuade the body to dissolve themselves.

He does, if nothing else, have strong convictions regarding topics like immigration, and he's here for it. I do believe he wants to enact his changes, not just snipe from the sidelines. He has struggled previously through a combination of FPTP (UKIP in 2015 general election got 1/8th of the vote share but only one MP, for example), and people losing interest when his parties lose elections.

I couldn't tell you what he might do on primary school education or cancer treatment, but I fully believe he would do his utmost to follow through on his immigration policies.

And it is this that really is scary.
Being prepared to do anything, and I mean anything, to stop asylum or any migration that falls foul of a Reform government's rules, quickly leads to very dark places.
If that prospect doesn't frighten people then whilst the total, or near total, focus of government is on migration then all the other issues get ignored. Once whatever action they take on migration is played out then people will still see that their problems are still extant. Where do they turn next, which other figure do we know that is willing to take advantage, not necessarily to gain power but certainly to cause trouble.

 

[styles]

And it is this that really is scary.
Being prepared to do anything, and I mean anything, to stop asylum or any migration that falls foul of a Reform government's rules, quickly leads to very dark places.
If that prospect doesn't frighten people then whilst the total, or near total, focus of government is on migration then all the other issues get ignored. Once whatever action they take on migration is played out then people will still see that their problems are still extant. Where do they turn next, which other figure do we know that is willing to take advantage, not necessarily to gain power but certainly to cause trouble.

Quite. This is the issue with what are effectively single issue parties. The SNP has struggled with its identity and ideology since its inception, as the core policy binding its members is just Scottish nationalism.

 

[YorkshireBear]

First signs of their rail policy, no shocks here, suspect it will be even worse for rail.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24rnr6d1d0o

Reform 'would scrap' high-speed northern rail line

A Reform UK government would scrap plans to build the Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) link, its deputy leader has said.

In a report to the right-leaning Policy Exchange think tank, Richard Tice said companies considering bidding for contracts to build east-to-west high-speed rail links should "not bother".

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham rejected Tice's comments and suggested Reform UK wanted a "second-class railway" for the north of England.

The government also said northern England had been stuck with "second-rate" transport links for too long, and that this was "leaving communities cut off and holding back growth".

The NPR is a project to boost rail services going east to west across northern England, and was first proposed by former Tory chancellor George Osbourne in 2014 before being shelved under Boris Johnson's adminstration.

Labour is expected to announce the return of the scheme within the next few weeks.

Manchester Picadilly station, platforms 6 and 7, as seen from above. A yellow and blue train is standing at a platform and people are seen standing and sitting at the platform opposite.
Image source,PA Media
Image caption,The Northern Powerhouse Rail project would include a new high-speed line running across northern England
Tice said a Reform UK government would "spend the money instead on things the country needs more".

Citing the "billions in overspending" related to HS2, he described the government's expected commitment to more high-speed rail links as "insanity".

The Policy Exchange report proposed a set of alternative schemes, including a Manchester version of London's Elizabeth Line.

It predicted NPR would be an "even greater train crash" than HS2, as a new line between Liverpool and Manchester could cost £30bn.

Researchers warned journeys between the cities on this line would take one minute longer than the fastest current services - which are 34 minutes - because it would also serve Manchester Airport.

Policy Exchange claimed the "crisis in HS2 is even worse than ministers admit", as the "true cost" for the line between London and Birmingham is "up to 22%" higher than the amount declared to Parliament.

'Higher ambitions'
A spokesperson for HS2 Ltd said: "We do not recognise these claims.

"HS2 Ltd is committed to the highest levels of transparency and our accounts are extensively audited by the National Audit Office."

Tice said: "Even as the historic disaster of HS2 blows through more billions in overspending and more years of delay, even as it sucks money from things the country actually needs, even as taxes on people and business rise, ministers are about to commit to further high-speed rail schemes which could make HS2's problems and price tag look trivial."

But Burnham said Tice and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage were both "creatures of the London establishment" and he was not "surprised in the slightest" to hear of their opposition to NPR.

"Across Europe, every other country connects its big cities by modern high-speed rail," said Greater Manchester's Labour mayor.

"But, like the Conservatives before them, the Reform party seems to believe that this should be a privilege only conferred on the southern half of the UK.

"We have higher ambitions for the North than them."

A Department for Transport spokesperson said: "The North has been stuck with second-rate transport for too long, leaving communities cut off and holding back growth.

"The government is delivering the transport infrastructure needed for faster and more reliable journeys to create jobs and deliver stronger growth – such as the Transpennine Route Upgrade which is already delivering more efficient journeys between Manchester, Huddersfield, Leeds and York.

"We will set out our ambitions for Northern Powerhouse Rail in the near future."

 

[Bletchleyite]

I wouldn't just be worried about NPR with Reform. I'd be worried about another Beeching or even Serpell. They clearly want to slash public spending and are pro (ICE) car.

 

[PGAT]

I wouldn't just be worried about NPR with Reform. I'd be worried about another Beeching or even Serpell. They clearly want to slash public spending and are pro (ICE) car.

Exactly this. If their attitude to the NHS, Net Zero and HS2 didn’t make it obvious, Reform is the avenue to DOGE-style looting of public finances. All this talk about immigration is just smoke and mirrors; giving the public a story they can cling onto

 

[YorkshireBear]

I wouldn't just be worried about NPR with Reform. I'd be worried about another Beeching or even Serpell. They clearly want to slash public spending and are pro (ICE) car.

Agreed. Service cuts and mothballed lines I would expect.

 

[cb a1]

Agreed. Service cuts and mothballed lines I would expect.

From what little I can gather of their ideology, I'd expect them to salt the earth too by selling the land at rock bottom prices so that if a future government want to re-open it'll cost a fortune and quite possibly have to demolish homes, etc.

 

[ainsworth74]

From what little I can gather of their ideology, I'd expect them to salt the earth too by selling the land at rock bottom prices so that if a future government want to re-open it'll cost a fortune and quite possibly have to demolish homes, etc.

And think of all those depots on prime city centre (or edge of) locations that can be sold of to the right sort of chaps, I'm sure, for a killing once the requirements of train fleets are reduced substantial following an aggressive efficiency program.