Railways lurching out of control?

[Iskra]

To be fair if the place the money goes instead is a savings account, that generates very little economic activity.

Not immediately, no. I would suggest most people find a different way to use their disposable income instead though rather than saving it.

 

[Magdalen Road]

Of course, I should have been a little more precise. In the three years before covid, I wasn't late for work once - admittedly, that was probably partly due to a rather good run of luck. But this summer I was late at least 4 times in a period of just 3 weeks.

I lost count of the number of times I was late!
Last week, the first three journeys were collectively about 1h30 late - the first London bound train on Monday was cancelled; so we just had to wait for the 0613. Ridiculous.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The optics of showering cash at pensioners and benefits recipients just hasn’t gone down well.

Its disgraceful that the people who have kept the pensioners going are being offered so little. Utter election bribing and Labour should call it out and say they will reverse it and use the money for NHS staff. They won't of course.

 

[Bald Rick]

Striking staffs wages won't save any money for the government, most TOCs are run by private companies(who pays the wages) and under the terms of the NRCs the TOCs still receive their fees.

yes they do. The employer pays the staff costs, and government reimburses the employer. So if the staff costs aren’t paid, the government doesn’t pay the employer.

The thing is the demand is there from the public, trains are often packed to the rafters, it's the service that's lacking.

It's not a problem of a lack of demand.

The problem very much is a lack of demand. See other threads.

So why are staff costs still shown in company accounts?

because they are employed by the company.

 

[43074]

The problem very much is a lack of demand. See other threads.

All the industry has done since March 2020 has cut services. In exactly the same way as running more trains stimulates growth, reducing services and being incapable of running a reliable service stifles it.

Worth also pointing out that EMR Connect and Chase Line electrification were singled out by the ORR in their station usage figures as reasons for above average growth in the year from April 2021 on the lines concerned, it is still very much the case that if a decent service is provided people will use it.

 

[Iskra]

All the industry has done since March 2020 has cut services. In exactly the same way as running more trains stimulates growth, reducing services and being incapable of running a reliable service stifles it.

Worth also pointing out that EMR Connect and Chase Line electrification were singled out by the ORR in their station usage figures as reasons for above average growth in the year from April 2021 on the lines concerned, it is still very much the case that if a decent service is provided people will use it.

And tell people not to travel (for a lot longer than necessary).

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

All the industry has done since March 2020 has cut services. In exactly the same way as running more trains stimulates growth, reducing services and being incapable of running a reliable service stifles it.

Worth also pointing out that EMR Connect and Chase Line electrification were singled out by the ORR in their station usage figures as reasons for above average growth in the year from April 2021 on the lines concerned, it is still very much the case that if a decent service is provided people will use it.

Of course but even where the service is sub optimal there are plenty of examples of ridership outstripping demand so in short term fares should be increased so to get the industry back on an even keel and then build out from there.

 

[Iskra]

Of course but even where the service is sub optimal there are plenty of examples of ridership outstripping demand so in short term fares should be increased so to get the industry back on an even keel and then build out from there.

How can ridership outstrip demand? They are the same thing?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Nov 2022 ==

And I’d strongly argue that raising fares will not reduce subsidy as demand will weaken as a result. Discretionary travel would cease, and business travel is as susceptible to discretion these days as leisure.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Just an observation - I travelled on the peak am and pm today on Thameslink to Farringdon and on the Elizabeth line to and from Paddington. Both very , very busy with a mix of commuters and airport etc travellers.

The local trains in urban West Wales up the Valleys (off peak) were deserted - 2 trains had no fare paying passengers , and were in effect empty stock. 4 of the others had less than 20 passengers on a 3 car service ........

The main line service from Paddington to South Wales managed with no problem as a 5 car vice 9 or 10.

I hate to say it , but from today's experiences - the railway is carrying a lot of fresh air , outside the 2 (dare I say it) - London and South East service rail groups.

 

[TUC]

The feeling amongst staff is that the TOCs just don't care, since the NRCs came in they get payed no matter what, including strike days.
Morale is at rock bottom, it's so frustrating.

Those of us who believe that markets give the best results for customers look on and say 'I told you so'.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Just an observation - I travelled on the peak am and pm today on Thameslink to Farringdon and on the Elizabeth line to and from Paddington. Both very , very busy with a mix of commuters and airport etc travellers.

The local trains in urban West Wales up the Valleys (off peak) were deserted - 2 trains had no fare paying passengers , and were in effect empty stock. 4 of the others had less than 20 passengers on a 3 car service ........

The main line service from Paddington to South Wales managed with no problem as a 5 car vice 9 or 10.

I hate to say it , but from today's experiences - the railway is carrying a lot of fresh air , outside the 2 (dare I say it) - London and South East service rail groups.

There is lots of demand, but it is very inconsistent compared to pre-covid.

Overall, yes, demand is down. But not evenly.

But there are significant spikes in demand on certain routes and on certain days which outstrips pre-covid demand, and also the available capacity. This then makes those journeys unpleasant and squashes demand again!

Overall there is no "one size fits all" approach to how to solve the industry issues.

 

[The Planner]

Worth also pointing out that EMR Connect and Chase Line electrification were singled out by the ORR in their station usage figures as reasons for above average growth in the year from April 2021 on the lines concerned, it is still very much the case that if a decent service is provided people will use it.

2tph delivered that on the Chase, not wires, and it needed a line speed improvement. Some decent DMUs would likely have delivered the same.

 

[Iskra]

Just an observation - I travelled on the peak am and pm today on Thameslink to Farringdon and on the Elizabeth line to and from Paddington. Both very , very busy with a mix of commuters and airport etc travellers.

The local trains in urban West Wales up the Valleys (off peak) were deserted - 2 trains had no fare paying passengers , and were in effect empty stock. 4 of the others had less than 20 passengers on a 3 car service ........

The main line service from Paddington to South Wales managed with no problem as a 5 car vice 9 or 10.

I hate to say it , but from today's experiences - the railway is carrying a lot of fresh air , outside the 2 (dare I say it) - London and South East service rail groups.

Your observations are that peak time commuter trains are busier than off peak ones?

 

[Bald Rick]

All the industry has done since March 2020 has cut services.

pedantically, that is patently untrue. services were reduced in March 2920 ( March 23rd to be precise), but increased in May, July, September and a December of that year. Reduced again in January 21 (but nowhere near as much), and increased again in March, May, September and December.

 

[Iskra]

pedantically, that is patently untrue. services were reduced in March 2920 ( March 23rd to be precise), but increased in May, July, September and a December of that year. Reduced again in January 21 (but nowhere near as much), and increased again in March, May, September and December.

While I see the point you are making, the timetable doesn’t necessarily reflect the service actually provided anymore though does it…

 

[43066]

What is your evidence that this dispute has cost the economy “hundreds of millions of pounds”?

Answered many times over. Google is your friend.

Railworkers and unions also have the power to do that, but ideology seems to be trumping common sense all round currently.

Not really. Unless you think accepting no pay rise for years on end and a massive reduction in Ts and Cs should be considered acceptable. It isn’t about ideology, it’s about basic fairness.

I worked throughout the pandemic. I haven’t had a pay rise for three years. Why shouldn’t I expect at least the kind of pay rise that’s being extended to the wider “public sector”, and indeed has been offered to people doing the same job in Scotland and Wales. I notice a large rise has also been offered to pensioners and benefits claimants!

Its disgraceful that the people who have kept the pensioners going are being offered so little. Utter election bribing and Labour should call it out and say they will reverse it and use the money for NHS staff. They won't of course.

Absolutely. And most people I speak to (not just railway staff!) agree. There’s a long standing attitude from certain posters on here of hating unions and wanting to see “overpaid” railway staff made worse off, which I think just stems from bitterness.

Those of us who believe that markets give the best results for customers look on and say 'I told you so'.

If you think markets always give the best results for customers, especially in “public service” markets like the railway, you are either hung up on dogma or you must live on a different planet. I say that as someone who is a small government Tory at heart!

 

[Iskra]

Not really. Unless you think accepting no pay rise for years on end and a massive reduction in Ts and Cs should be considered acceptable. It isn’t about ideology, it’s about basic fairness.

I worked throughout the pandemic. I haven’t had a pay rise for three years. Why shouldn’t I expect at least the kind of pay rise that’s being extended to the wider “public sector”, and indeed has been offered to people doing the same job in Scotland and Wales. I notice a large rise has also been offered to pensioners and benefits claimants!

Your concept of basic fairness is very much ideological I’m afraid

How does a payrise fit with an industry whose business is 20% down? And how is it funded, without the taxpayer picking up the bill, which could be viewed as unfair on those that don’t use the railway as well as financially irresponsible?

Settlements in Scotland and Wales aren’t particularly relevant I’m afraid due to different funding models.

I’m just asking questions here, if passenger numbers/revenue/profit were 20% up in real terms based on 2019 levels I’d be fully supportive of a pay rise.

 

[BrianW]

Anything to be learned from history? Just sayin'...

Coal- https://www.statista.com/statistics...oal-mining-industry-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

Steel- https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/econ...ebritishsteelindustrysincethe1970s/2016-01-18

Huw Merriman on BBC Radio 4 Any Questions last week: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001fdb9
Response at approx 9mins in re strikes. More interesting maybe at apx 15mins- 'I've only just become a minister. I don't intend to lose it by telling PM what to do'
How many rail jobs at stake in Bexhill and Battle? How many commuters/ taxpayers?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Settlements in Scotland and Wales aren’t particularly relevant I’m afraid due to different funding models.

All the money comes from Westminster, except an extra 1% on tax in Scotland, its just how the devolved administration chooses to use its money that is differrent. Also they have no ability to raise loans so savings will have to come from somewhere in the long run.

 

[jfowkes]

How does a payrise fit with an industry whose business is 20% down? And how is it funded, without the taxpayer picking up the bill, which could be viewed as unfair on those that don’t use the railway as well as financially irresponsible?

You use the immediate and urgent need to do something about the climate crisis to pour money into public transport at every level in order to reduce transport sector carbon emissions as rapidly as possible. That is the environmentally, socially and financially responsible thing to do. Because the costs of not doing so are so much greater, and increase the longer we wait.

I am absolutely baffled that climate, and the role the railways can play in reducing climate impacts barely gets mentioned in these kind of discussions.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Your observations are that peak time commuter trains are busier than off peak ones?

Yes - certainly on Thameslink and the Elizabeth lines. not quite pre-Covid , but not far off it. Back to standing on peak hour services northbound , departing from St Albans towards Luton and Bedford certainly. (on the fast trains certainly) - most neighbours etc are generally doing say 2/3 days a week up in that there London.

Off peak services generally loading quite well. Maybe a bit better than pre-Covid. The real test will be when the grim post Xmas period kicks in. (and disposable income may be less available)

That is on non disturbed periods when strike action makes an impact of course.

 

[43066]

Your concept of basic fairness is very much ideological I’m afraid

How does a payrise fit with an industry whose business is 20% down? And how is it funded, without the taxpayer picking up the bill, which could be viewed as unfair on those that don’t use the railway as well as financially irresponsible?

Fairly obviously, it isn’t a normal commercial industry, is it? Why are we pretending it is? Why do GPs and civil servants get a pay rise while I don’t?

If you think people living off the state on benefits/pensions are more deserving of a rise than people who get up at 0300 to go and operate the railway, we are in fundamental disagreement. And how have those increases been funded, isn’t that also irresponsible? I’m certainly paying for them as a tax payer….

Settlements in Scotland and Wales aren’t particularly relevant I’m afraid due to different funding models.

This is nonsense. It’s the devolved governments ultimately awarding the rise, all of which originates from the same pot.

Anything to be learned from history? Just sayin'...

Coal- https://www.statista.com/statistics...oal-mining-industry-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

Steel- https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/econ...ebritishsteelindustrysincethe1970s/2016-01-18

Huw Merriman on BBC Radio 4 Any Questions last week: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001fdb9
Response at approx 9mins in re strikes. More interesting maybe at apx 15mins- 'I've only just become a minister. I don't intend to lose it by telling PM what to do'
How many rail jobs at stake in Bexhill and Battle? How many commuters/ taxpayers?

Miners again? Seriously? It’s an utterly pointless and irrelevant comparison.

I didn’t realise there was a cheap new railway being imported from abroad to replace the existing one.

 

[zwk500]

pedantically, that is patently untrue. services were reduced in March 2920 ( March 23rd to be precise), but increased in May, July, September and a December of that year. Reduced again in January 21 (but nowhere near as much), and increased again in March, May, September and December.

You're known for your long predictions, but this is going some

Not really. Unless you think accepting no pay rise for years on end and a massive reduction in Ts and Cs should be considered acceptable. It isn’t about ideology, it’s about basic fairness.

I worked throughout the pandemic. I haven’t had a pay rise for three years. Why shouldn’t I expect at least the kind of pay rise that’s being extended to the wider “public sector”, and indeed has been offered to people doing the same job in Scotland and Wales. I notice a large rise has also been offered to pensioners and benefits claimants!

This is an important point - rail wages have risen below inflation for many years before the pandemic, which is a real terms wage cut. It's not just a reward for the pandemic (although it would deserve one anyway, because the rail industry was asked to deliver the near impossible overnight and rose to the challenge and then some), it's the result of a long-term drag on wages.

 

[Iskra]

You use the immediate and urgent need to do something about the climate crisis to pour money into public transport at every level in order to reduce transport sector carbon emissions as rapidly as possible. That is the environmentally, socially and financially responsible thing to do. Because the costs of not doing so are so much greater, and increase the longer we wait.

I am absolutely baffled that climate, and the role the railways can play in reducing climate impacts barely gets mentioned in these kind of discussions.

Well that’s an idea, but we can throw all the money we want at that particular issue, but it’s irrelevant if China continues doing its thing. And who are we to tell the Chinese not to industrialise at lightning pace after we did exactly the same. I’m not sure British transport policy is going to solve a world issue, as much as it would be nice if that were an option.

 

[43066]

This is an important point - rail wages have risen below inflation for many years before the pandemic, which is a real terms wage cut. It's not just a reward for the pandemic (although it would deserve one anyway, because the rail industry was asked to deliver the near impossible overnight and rose to the challenge and then some), it's the result of a long-term drag on wages.

Indeed. Also the point that the current “issues” will be inhibiting passenger recovery and making the financial situation worse. This could all have been solved many months ago with a simple 5-7%, as per other sectors….

As I’m sure you’ll agree, for those of us in the industry, it’s just enormously frustrating, most of all.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Nov 2022 ==

Well that’s an idea, but we can throw all the money we want at that particular issue, but it’s irrelevant if China continues doing its thing. And who are we to tell the Chinese not to industrialise at lightning pace after we did exactly the same. I’m not sure British transport policy is going to solve a world issue, as much as it would be nice if that were an option.

We fully agree here. Nothing we can realistically do climate wise, so we might as well stop virtue signalling and start getting busy building flood defences….

 

[MCSHF007]

If you think people living off the state on benefits/pensions are more deserving of a rise than people who get up at 0300 to go and operate the railway, we are in fundamental disagreement. And how have those increases been funded, isn’t that also irresponsible? I’m certainly paying for them as a tax payer….

Indeed. Especially the former though. Many of today's pensioners will have got up themselves at ungodly hours over many years to keep the economy moving. A significant percentage of claimants however probably don't even know there's two 3 o'clocks in the day (and indeed two 4/5/6/7/8 o' clocks)...

 

[zwk500]

Well that’s an idea, but we can throw all the money we want at that particular issue, but it’s irrelevant if China continues doing its thing. And who are we to tell the Chinese not to industrialise at lightning pace after we did exactly the same. I’m not sure British transport policy is going to solve a world issue, as much as it would be nice if that were an option.

We may be fortunate on that front, as China's growth is stuttering and the underlying weaknesses in their economy are starting to be felt.

Indeed. Also the point that the current “issues” will be inhibiting passenger recovery and making the financial situation worse. This could all have been solved many months ago with a simple 5-7%, as per other sectors….

As I’m sure you’ll agree, for those of us in the industry, it’s just enormously frustrating, most of all.

Indeed. Completely sympathise, even if I'm no longer directly affected.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Indeed. Especially the former though. Many of today's pensioners will have got up themselves at ungodly hours over many years to keep the economy moving. A significant percentage of claimants however probably don't even know there's two 3 o'clocks in the day (and indeed two 4/5/6/7/8 o' clocks)...

and significant number don't need the money not forgetting they are also getting extra winter fuel allowance on top of the usual winter fuel allowance.

the states first duty is to those that support it and deliver services for its citizens

 

[Iskra]

Fairly obviously, it isn’t a normal commercial industry, is it? Why are we pretending it is? Why do GPs and civil servants get a pay rise while I don’t?

If you think people living off the state on benefits/pensions are more deserving of a rise than people who get up at 0300 to go and operate the railway, we are in fundamental disagreement. And how have those increases been funded, isn’t that also irresponsible? I’m certainly paying for them as a tax payer….

This is nonsense. It’s the devolved governments ultimately awarding the rise, all of which originates from the same pot.

Not being entirely commercial does not mean it doesn’t have to justify its performance and funding financially however, and is somehow sacred when it isn’t being used as much.

I’ve not said anything about pensioners, I’m asking you to justify a payrise based solely on the railways own performance and at this point I am yet to see anything credible.

Yes, so it’s a devolved issue in Scotland and Wales so is not relevant in England. And that’s before we start thinking about some the peculiarities of how ‘the pot’ is distributed, but that’s probably for another thread…

 

[zwk500]

the states first duty is to those that support it and deliver services for its citizens

Ah, but a Party's first and only duty is to get itself elected. A government's first duty is to keep itself in office. Ministers don't really have time for State duties after considering their 2 higher priorities.