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Railways lurching out of control?

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Iskra

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It's not a problem of a lack of demand.
Yet…

The current state of the railway, is going to significantly drive future custom away.

There is a serious risk that we are entering a vicious cycle of decline, and numerous parties are more interested in looking after themselves in the short term rather than working towards a sustainable future.
 
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GalaxyDog

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It's simple. It started when it turned into another one way privatisation spree for the fatcats - reap the profits, let the taxpayers handle the losses.

Afterall, bosses and stakeholders are still getting their money for nothing.
 

43096

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I’m currently on a full and standing 700. It could be 2019 on this train….
That is meaningless without any context. What proportion of the service is running compared to 2019?

I was on a full and standing SWR service earlier. But the frequency is only 50% of what it was in 2019. So overall loading is probably around 55%.
 

DelW

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There was the few weeks in the summer where I was 30+ minutes late for work almost every day, for weeks, for all manner of different problems, seemimgly a new one every day. Something that had never happened before.
It may never have happened to you before, but Reginald Perrin experienced almost that as far back as the 1970s.

See post 16 here:
 

Iskra

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It's simple. It started when it turned into another one way privatisation spree for the fatcats - reap the profits, let the taxpayers handle the losses.

Afterall, bosses and stakeholders are still getting their money for nothing.
The 1870’s?
 

MikeWM

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It may never have happened to you before, but Reginald Perrin experienced almost that as far back as the 1970s.

See post 16 here:

:) Of course, I should have been a little more precise. In the three years before covid, I wasn't late for work once - admittedly, that was probably partly due to a rather good run of luck. But this summer I was late at least 4 times in a period of just 3 weeks.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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The problem is that in general terms the demand is a) not consistent country wide and b) not the same type of demand as was there before covid.

The most recent update from my TOC indicated that commuting and business travel was around 80% of pre-Covid levels whilst Off Peak and leisure, especially on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays was around 120% of pre-Covid levels.

But they don't balance out income wise as leisure travellers are using a range of cheaper tickets such Off Peak, Group tickets, concessionary passes, railcards etc and many don't pay at all because they are not regular travellers and with barriers often open at weekends it is easy not to pay if boarding at one of the many unstaffed stations.

The industry is still very much focused on mid-week commuters.

So my TOC will quite happily run a Double Set at midweek "commuting" times, and on some days still have empty seats, or people standing for only very short distances (15 mins or so), but will still run a Single Set at weekends which will be crush loaded for an hour or more and leave people behind. A situation often made worse by the current high level of cancellations and the fact that engineering work and line closures take place at weekends, forcing displaced passengers on to alternative routes which have no spare or additional capacity to cope with them.

The industry as a whole needs to readjust the way it works to successfully capture this increase in demand whilst also adapting to falling demand at the traditionally core busy times.
Very well stated and shows as we know the industry has the answers but the DfT need to persuaded that the least cost solution lies within the industry itself. I thought Haines would be the white knight but im not so sure anymore and certainly no operator MD has been prepared to be vocal in public about how to move the industry forward again.
 

heathrowrail

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We might agree that it is clear what should happen next, but I very much doubt we will agree on what that thing is!
The simple solution would be to fully privatise the railways into their own company, separate from government and separate from idiotic companies like Stagecoach or Govia who just run things at rock bottom. Have it like John Lewis Partnership/Co-Operative so that local authorities can hold a stake. Everyone would be happier and the government doesn't have to keep meddling in something they don't understand.
 

Iskra

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The simple solution would be to fully privatise the railways into their own company, separate from government and separate from idiotic companies like Stagecoach or Govia who just run things at rock bottom. Have it like John Lewis Partnership/Co-Operative so that local authorities can hold a stake. Everyone would be happier and the government doesn't have to keep meddling in something they don't understand.
How would that work with lines that make a loss?

And that wouldn’t solve the immediate crisis.
 

JonathanH

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idiotic companies like Stagecoach or Govia who just run things at rock bottom
What on earth does that mean?

Have it like John Lewis Partnership/Co-Operative so that local authorities can hold a stake. Everyone would be happier and the government doesn't have to keep meddling in something they don't understand.
Even mutual organisations have to ensure the books balance and that money is retained in the business for investment. John Lewis / Co-op pay out dividends, albeit to their mutual members rather than investors.

How do you know that a mutual (or the government) wouldn't also run their business 'at rock bottom'?
 

Deepgreen

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It is dire and I can see no way back. It pains me to the core to even think it, but I think the railways are about to contract inwards in a horrible way, with a mini-Beeching era imminent (probably by stealth). Costs are out of control, there is absolutely no leadership and the government has abandoned the system to its own devices (and is watching while it crumbles). It pretty much did so right back at the time of the abhorent privatisation, which was, after all, its point. The 'green recovery' from C19 was yet another of Johnson's catalogue of lies, and society is descending even further into red, rather than green, behaviour. People are becoming permanently disenchanted with the railways for a number of reasons and will quite readily sit in cars, even in jams, rather than risk the spiralling unreliability of public transport. I have been a life-long fervent supporter of rail as both a concept and a reality (and as a career), and I will always be so, but there is rapidly going to be far less to cling onto.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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The simple solution would be to fully privatise the railways into their own company, separate from government and separate from idiotic companies like Stagecoach or Govia who just run things at rock bottom. Have it like John Lewis Partnership/Co-Operative so that local authorities can hold a stake. Everyone would be happier and the government doesn't have to keep meddling in something they don't understand.
For sure all the mayoral areas should be given full control of services within their demise. The infrastructure will have to be retained by NR in most cases I know Merseyrail are doing a deal but most of the DC network is just used by them.
 

bramling

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It is dire and I can see no way back. It pains me to the core to even think it, but I think the railways are about to contract inwards in a horrible way, with a mini-Beeching era imminent (probably by stealth). Costs are out of control, there is absolutely no leadership and the government has abandoned the system to its own devices (and is watching while it crumbles). It pretty much did so right back at the time of the abhorent privatisation, which was, after all, its point. The 'green recovery' from C19 was yet another of Johnson's catalogue of lies, and society is descending even further into red, rather than green, behaviour. People are becoming permanently disenchanted with the railways for a number of reasons and will quite readily sit in cars, even in jams, rather than risk the spiralling unreliability of public transport. I have been a life-long fervent supporter of rail as both a concept and a reality (and as a career), and I will always be so, but there is rapidly going to be far less to cling onto.

This is a horrible thing to say, however one way for the industry to be snapped out of this is for a major disaster to happen. With skimping going on across the board, this may well - sadly - be the end result.
 

Iskra

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For sure all the mayoral areas should be given full control of services within their demise. The infrastructure will have to be retained by NR in most cases I know Merseyrail are doing a deal but most of the DC network is just used by them.
That doesn’t change the subsidy level, just moves it onto a different balance sheet.

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This is a horrible thing to say, however one way for the industry to be snapped out of this is for a major disaster to happen. With skimping going on across the board, this may well - sadly - be the end result.
50/50. It could be a stimulus for investment, leadership etc. Yet it could just drive more custom away and be another nail in the coffin.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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That doesn’t change the subsidy level, just moves it onto a different balance sheet.
Agree but its upto local areas to decide what they want to do where as in England we DfT dictating for the whole country and unlikely ever to bother to see what teh consequences of their actions are out side of London.
 

swt_passenger

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It's simple. It started when it turned into another one way privatisation spree for the fatcats - reap the profits, let the taxpayers handle the losses.

Afterall, bosses and stakeholders are still getting their money for nothing.
I think you’re possibly confusing stakeholders with shareholders?
 

Iskra

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Agree but its upto local areas to decide what they want to do where as in England we DfT dictating for the whole country and unlikely ever to bother to see what teh consequences of their actions are out side of London.
That’s interesting and I do think we will see more devolution in the future, but I doubt it is a silver bullet for the railways woes and there will still be an inequality in service provision due to vested interest, just along different lines to currently. Look at how the Northern city regions struggle to agree anything and have their own agendas for example.
 

HSTEd

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The simple solution would be to fully privatise the railways into their own company, separate from government and separate from idiotic companies like Stagecoach or Govia who just run things at rock bottom. Have it like John Lewis Partnership/Co-Operative so that local authorities can hold a stake. Everyone would be happier and the government doesn't have to keep meddling in something they don't understand.

So the government would, what, be forced to give unlimited free money to something that they have absolutely no control over?
 

HullRailMan

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Ending a politically and economically damaging dispute that has cost the economy hundreds of millions of pounds, improving reliability thus allowing the railway’s finances to improve through encouraging passengers to return rather than driving them away...
What is your evidence that this dispute has cost the economy “hundreds of millions of pounds”?
 

Iskra

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Ending a politically and economically damaging dispute that has cost the economy hundreds of millions of pounds, improving reliability thus allowing the railway’s finances to improve through encouraging passengers to return rather than driving them away...
Railworkers and unions also have the power to do that, but ideology seems to be trumping common sense all round currently.
 
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HullRailMan

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No but that's the period that the Conservative government would like to return this country to...
I must have missed that pledge in their manifesto. Just think though, if we go back to the 1870s you’d have a much more extensive rail network.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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What is your evidence that this dispute has cost the economy “hundreds of millions of pounds”?
You can't measure it but plenty of trade associations have reported there members lose trade on strike days now they may come back the next day and spend it but there will be plenty of occasions where its lost income. For private business that lost income is reduced profitability which means less tax even for the likes of NHS its missed appointments and more cost to recover.
 

bramling

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50/50. It could be a stimulus for investment, leadership etc. Yet it could just drive more custom away and be another nail in the coffin.

Agreed, which way those scales tip depend on how high-profile the incident is.

To be frank, I can see something happening. The holes are gradually lining up.

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Railworkers and unions also have the power to do that…

I’ve never known staff as hacked off as they are at the moment, especially since the Hunt budget. Indeed this reflects the working population as a whole.

The optics of showering cash at pensioners and benefits recipients just hasn’t gone down well. Indeed even a friend of mine who is normally pretty anti unions and rail staff is of the opinion that it’s hard to justify not giving pay rises to the public sector when you’ve just shored up these two groups.
 

Iskra

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You can't measure it but plenty of trade associations have reported there members lose trade on strike days now they may come back the next day and spend it but there will be plenty of occasions where its lost income. For private business that lost income is reduced profitability which means less tax even for the likes of NHS its missed appointments and more cost to recover.
It's not lost trade, it just goes somewhere else. So the economy overall doesn't lose, but the railway does.

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I’ve never known staff as hacked off as they are at the moment, especially since the Hunt budget. Indeed this reflects the working population as a whole.

The optics of showering cash at pensioners and benefits recipients just hasn’t gone down well. Indeed even a friend of mine who is normally pretty anti unions and rail staff is of the opinion that it’s hard to justify not giving pay rises to the public sector when you’ve just shored up these two groups.
I'm sensing that too, but they have actually been pretty good for 'workers' pay packets since taking power. I appreciate that ideology will drive some to argue against that, regardless of the reality. How much of the current malaise is Tory doing, rather than just the wider economic situation, I wouldn't like to say, but they are making themselves an easy target currently through inept leadership.
 
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43096

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The simple solution would be to fully privatise the railways into their own company, separate from government and separate from idiotic companies like Stagecoach or Govia who just run things at rock bottom.
Idiotic companies like Stagecoach, that don't now run any UK mainline rail operations - they sensibly got out when they did. Not exactly "idiotic". I rather suspect you've strung some buzzwords together than you don't really know the meaning of.
 

Urobach

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What is your evidence that this dispute has cost the economy “hundreds of millions of pounds”?

Ongoing railway strikes have cost the UK economy £500m this year, with businesses pleading with unions and bosses to find a solution to the disruption.

“If we don’t get the services restored I’m worried people will give up on rail,” newly-appointed rail minister Huw Merriman told the Railway Industry Association’s conference on Thursday.

Reported in various locations such as above following comments by Huw Merriman, Rail Minister
 

Iskra

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Reported in various locations such as above following comments by Huw Merriman, Rail Minister
There is absolutely no explanation of where that figure has come from however.
 

Starmill

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It's not lost trade, it just goes somewhere else. So the economy overall doesn't lose, but the railway does.
To be fair if the place the money goes instead is a savings account, that generates very little economic activity.
 
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