Railway predictions for 2026

[Russel]

The treasury will find another major rail scheme to delay or cancel.

GBR will get further delayed.

To accompany the quarter-century old 175s, GWR will get some even older class 150s.

Another railtour operator will close, or cease running enthusiast charters.

Cross-Country will get worse.

Chiltern will not keep all of its existing DMUs.

And the good news? Er……..

You've summed up exactly what will happen very well!

Depressing.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

No more electrification will be announced ( very sadly )

 

[Russel]

No more electrification will be announced ( very sadly )

To add to that point, is there any ongoing projects that are at risk of being scaled back?

Not that that is something I'd want to see, but it wouldn't be the frist time it's happened.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

To add to that point, is there any ongoing projects that are at risk of being scaled back?

Not that that is something I'd want to see, but it wouldn't be the first time it's happened.

TRU could in theory be scaled back - as in delayed. I am talking about the two sections between Stalybridge and Huddersfield. Complete everything else on the project.

 

[Oxfordblues]

I'm an inveterate optimist, so I predict that GBRf's new Class 99s will be a runaway success, transforming routes such as Hams Hall-Mossend and Grain-Prestwick, significantly reducing diesel operation under-the-wires and enabling GBRf to poach flows such as Seaforth-Mossend from DB-Cargo by promoting "greener" traction. By the end of 2026 both Freightliner Intermodal and DB-Cargo UK will be investigating follow-up orders with Stadler.

 

[Harpo]

Heidi Alexander will be replaced

When Starmer’s replacement announces her cabinet team?

 

[Russel]

When Starmer’s replacement announces her cabinet team?

Worrying prospect.

 

[Falcon1200]

Balgray station in the Glasgow Central/Neilston line will open, and quite possibly before the nearby Aurs Road re-opens.

 

[Snow1964]

There will be a sudden political panic in March when Labour is doing dreadfully in polls ahead of 7 May elections.

About half a dozen planned station from cancelled restoring your railway suddenly get reinstated and fully funded (and by pure coincidence all are where they need popularity boost).


My other prediction is sadly rather negative, GWR introduce a thinned out emergency IET timetable because Hitachi fails to repair failed diesel engines sufficiently fast.

 

[philosopher]

Why Bordesley in particular rather than Stanlow and Thornton, IBM or Teesside Airport?

Bordesley station will have to close at some point within the next few years to allow the chords from the Camp Hill Line to Moor Street station to be built.

 

[LittleRedTrain]

• Chiltern Railways will introduce the first Mk5 sets roughly on time, but they will quickly prove to offer inadequate capacity and overcrowding will get worse. However, they'll still press on with adding First Class.
  The timetable improvements offering a more frequent service to make up for the shorter trains will be scaled back due to DfT interference.
  Either that, or only a few sets will be able to run because of either:
  • Inability to source enough guards
  • RMT demand extra payments or concessions before agreeing to work the trains.
  • The residents of Marylebone getting some sort of legal injunction against the extra Class 68 noise.
• East West Rail will open, but only at a point where the government can claim to take full credit for it and possibly only a token service if they have to back down on DOO.
• CrossCountry will be forced to scale back some of the improvements from the December timetable, so they can devote stock/crews to the 'core' routes.
• Something really bad will happen with a Passenger Assist that exposes the weaknesses in the system. Operators will be forced to crack down on eligibility for assistance.
• The 'Fares Freeze' will be cover for a significant reduction in the availability of cheap Advance fares.
• A serious incident will happen involving engineering works, the root cause of which will be inexeperienced contractors making a mistake about where they are/which lines are open.
• A line will have to close for an extended period due to failure of a major structure (as happened with Nuneham viaduct and the tunnel on the Cumbrian Coast).
• The Cambrian Coast Line will be closed for the one week I need to use it this year (either due to 197 training, short-notice engineering work or flooding).

 

[geoffk]

Northern will acquire two of the mothballed 323s from Long Marston to run between Newcastle and Morpeth/Chathill, freeing up diesel units to strengthen the Ashington service to four cars. (Are the turnbacks at Morpeth and Chathill electrified though?)

 

[Sonic1234]

There will be a major shakeup to TOC prosecutions
Someone will appeal their case to a higher court and we will get a definitive answer if charging the Anytime fare when some form of ticket was held is correct, or TOCs can only claim the difference between the ticket held and the cheapest valid ticket (or £35 for a new railcard)

Or: A TOC will be bloody minded enough to go after someone vunerable (e.g. someone visibly seriously disabled, travelling for medical treatment only available in one place in the UK with a disabled railcard expired the day before), there will be a media outcry and the Government will announce an end to TOC prosecutions as a reactionary measure

Or: Someone high up in the political world will get caught for one of the railway rules which The Man on the Clapham Omnibus would find preposterous (e.g. getting off one stop early on an Advance) and will order an end to it

Or: The post-COVID boom in extorting settlement offers will be over. The middle class miscreants are reformed characters (or have bought a car) and the only people being caught are sneaky enough to give false details or aggressive enough to wallop a RPI to get away.

 

[yorksrob]

There will be a major shakeup to TOC prosecutions
Someone will appeal their case to a higher court and we will get a definitive answer if charging the Anytime fare when some form of ticket was held is correct, or TOCs can only claim the difference between the ticket held and the cheapest valid ticket (or £35 for a new railcard)

Or: A TOC will be bloody minded enough to go after someone vunerable (e.g. someone visibly seriously disabled, travelling for medical treatment only available in one place in the UK with a disabled railcard expired the day before), there will be a media outcry and the Government will announce an end to TOC prosecutions as a reactionary measure

Or: Someone high up in the political world will get caught for one of the railway rules which The Man on the Clapham Omnibus would find preposterous (e.g. getting off one stop early on an Advance) and will order an end to it

Or: The post-COVID boom in extorting settlement offers will be over. The middle class miscreants are reformed characters (or have bought a car) and the only people being caught are sneaky enough to give false details or aggressive enough to wallop a RPI to get away.

As I've said before, we don't trust the police to bring prosecutions, why would we trust any industry - be it rail, post etc.

 

[djox]

What are your predictions for railways in 2026? I'm going to start with

• Bicester – Bletchley, the West Midlands' five stations, and Cambridge South will open
• Old Tyne and Wear Metro trains will go
• West Midlands Trains (confirmed for February?) Chiltern, GTR and GWR at a minimum will be renationalised
• Significant new investment (e.g. Leeds tram, reviving HS2 to Manchester or Leeds) will not come if Starmer and Reeves are in place

* Services start on Camp Hill line Birmingham in first half of 2026
* Darlaston and Willenhall stations open and services call at them.
* Services from Oxford to MK start in Dec 2026.
* Botley Road Bridge Oxford only partially opens to traffic as bridge doesn't get finished In August 2026.
* Manchester/Crewe to Birmingham HS2 replacement still doesn't get a new plan.

 

[devon_belle]

I think SWR will return to a pre-covid timetable (or, at least, increase some frequencies without reinstating peak extras), but Southern metro will remain reduced.

I expect an (politically-driven) announcement for at least one enhancement between Salisbury and Exeter to account for embankment issues.

 

[Arewethereyet?]

Great Western introduces sandwiches for journeys of less than 3 hours.

Great Western provides sufficient sandwiches for journeys of 3 hours or more.

 

[z444z]

Something really bad will happen with a Passenger Assist that exposes the weaknesses in the system. Operators will be forced to crack down on eligibility for assistance.

Could you expand on this? Interested what you think might happen, and how eligibility could change.

 

[LittleRedTrain]

Could you expand on this? Interested what you think might happen, and how eligibility could change.

Something like:

• Assistance doesn't turn up at destination, passenger tries to get themselves off a train without help and ends up falling down the gap/under the train and seriously injuring themselves in the process.
• Disabled passenger left abandoned on a cold empty platform for ages because their booked assistance never turned up and either suffers illness due to the weather or becomes a victim of crime.
• Disabled passenger gets hit on a foot crossing, falls off a platform or tumbles down some stairs because the booked assistance to help them safely around the station area isn't available (see recent discussions about Yeovil Pen Mill).
  I've had recent experience myself where assistance staff have assisted the passenger off the train with the ramp, then just wandered off, without making sure the passenger can safely reach the exit or the platform for their connecting train.

Any of these things could see a suitable media frenzy, a big payout, and force the railway to react.

I could see the eligibility criteria changing so that you must provide some sort of proof of disability before being able to book assistance, rather than having too many kids/too much luggage to comfortably handle, or just not being confident enough to use the trains by yourself, thus ensuring that the few staff available are focused on those with the greatest need.
(I don't want to get into a discussion about the rights and wrongs of that approach here, as potential abuse of the service and its implications has been discussed elsewhere recently).

 

[Itsjustesh]

• Avanti West Coast will probably find itself on more controversy than usual
• C2C gets another good year

 

[z444z]

Assistance doesn't turn up at destination, passenger tries to get themselves off a train without help and ends up falling down the gap/under the train and seriously injuring themselves in the process.

Funnily enough, literally ten minutes ago a friend of mine, a wheelchair user, was overcarried from Twyford to Reading as nobody showed up with a ramp at Twyford. When they blocked the doors at Twyford they were repeatedly told off by the driver over the speakers. There was again no member of staff to be seen at Reading and facing the prospect of being trapped for nearly an hour back to Paddington, they had to do, and I quote, a “very dodgy transfer off the train”.

Personally I’d have continued to block the doors at Twyford and probably pulled the alarm too, but that’s neither here nor there, they did what they could in the situation and did try to block the doors but backed down when shouted at in front of the whole train over the speakers.

You are right that passenger assistance is in absolute shambles and it is only a matter of time. I acknowledge this is off topic for the thread and if this discussion is to continue further it should probably be split

 

[och aye]

The Borders Line extension is killed forever..... Until a new study is commissioned about six months later.

Hopefully we'll see Balgray open as the next new station in Scotland this year.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jan 2026 ==

Why Bordesley in particular rather than Stanlow and Thornton, IBM or Teesside Airport?

I think the plan is for IBM to reopen, once the former factory site is redeveloped.

 

[317 forever]

If she lasts that long, she'll have lasted longer than Kelly in March, Hammond in May, Harper in August, Grayling and Shapps two years from now, and Darling in November 2028. To overtake Prescott (and every postwar transport secretary / minister bar Marples), she'll have to be in place until January 2029.

In that case, we now know we won't have the General Election until 2029

 

[Kingston Dan]

Labour announce a new trade deal with the US including using Elon Musk's tunnel boring company and electric autonomous vehicles as the new standard for urban transport. Bus fare cap abolished as anti competitive and bus remunicipalisation ended, all new urban rail projects/improvements ended and Mayor Brabin holds photo op with Musk announcing Leeds as the pilot scheme. The third phase of E-W rail is to be built as a hyperloop with concurrent dual carriageway in case the technology doesn't work. Northern Powerhouse Rail is delayed to see how the hyperloop pilot works and will be expected to use the technology if successful. Reeves is sacked as chancellor and replaced by Luke Akehurst who reduces fuel duties on ICE vehicles saying '90% of journeys are by road and I will be the drivers' friend'. Land acquired for HS2 north will be sold off to the tech companies to build data centres and Amazon warehouses. In 2029 the election is cancelled due to tropical storms lashing the south of England and East Anglia with 15m homes and 25 million people under water. Stats show the climate has broken through the plus 3.5 degree level as Heidi Alexander orders hundreds of new diesel trains as rare earth minerals fall into the hands of the Chinese making battery power unaffordable...

 

[Halish Railway]

Bit of a random one but TfW will announce that their Class 158s will be retained to resource service expansions and lengthen services. Bad news for operators wanting to acquire them.

Everyone will kick up a fuss over some of the planned service changes in Greater Manchester with the December timetable change as the third platform at Salford Crescent and turnback siding at Salford Central open, especially those living in So*****rt.

No train will receive a GBR livery.

It gets announced that Eurostar’s new double deck trains will not initially run through the Channel tunnel.

 

[sad1e]

I bet Wedgwood and Barlaston will either both be killed off after only receiving a replacement bus service for the past 21 Years now , Or Wedgwood is killed off due to its poorly maintained wooden platforms and Barlaston reopened alongside LNWR/WMR renationalisation.

I also hope Chiltern either goes ahead and begins refurbishment on a few members of its very knackered 165 fleet while it off leases a few of it's worst examples for parts and scrap. Or just puts out and awards a tender for a full 165 fleet replacement.

 

[dk1]

Strikes?

Nothing on the horizon from what I can see. Rachel kindly looked after us as soon as she got into power

 

[yorksrob]

Labour announce a new trade deal with the US including using Elon Musk's tunnel boring company and electric autonomous vehicles as the new standard for urban transport. Bus fare cap abolished as anti competitive and bus remunicipalisation ended, all new urban rail projects/improvements ended and Mayor Brabin holds photo op with Musk announcing Leeds as the pilot scheme. The third phase of E-W rail is to be built as a hyperloop with concurrent dual carriageway in case the technology doesn't work. Northern Powerhouse Rail is delayed to see how the hyperloop pilot works and will be expected to use the technology if successful. Reeves is sacked as chancellor and replaced by Luke Akehurst who reduces fuel duties on ICE vehicles saying '90% of journeys are by road and I will be the drivers' friend'. Land acquired for HS2 north will be sold off to the tech companies to build data centres and Amazon warehouses. In 2029 the election is cancelled due to tropical storms lashing the south of England and East Anglia with 15m homes and 25 million people under water. Stats show the climate has broken through the plus 3.5 degree level as Heidi Alexander orders hundreds of new diesel trains as rare earth minerals fall into the hands of the Chinese making battery power unaffordable...

Truly dystopian !

 

[mike57]

Looking at the comments here, and I think the negative thoughts and predictions are the ones that will be correct.

In spite of a record commons majority the current government seem paralysed, and hugely unpopular.

None of the 'senior team' will want to promote any railway investment beyond 'lip service'. East West rail beyond Bedford may get a 'study' but as for meaningful construction, there will nothing promised. HS2 will be a topic which all the politicians will avoid. Any extension to the existing scope will not happen, same with NPR, its dead, but no one want to actually admit it.

ToCs will continue to be nationalised, but progress to 'one railway' will be painfully slow, with issues like ticketing complexity being shelved as being too expensive, so the current compartmentalised system will continue.

I also predict that the DfT aka government will try and limit Open access operators going forwards. It goes against their view of the world. Nothing will be done to address the problems which have lead to the current issues facing the railways.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

There will be a sudden political panic in March when Labour is doing dreadfully in polls ahead of 7 May elections.

About half a dozen planned station from cancelled restoring your railway suddenly get reinstated and fully funded (and by pure coincidence all are where they need popularity boost).

Very cynical but quite highly possible!