Railway predictions for 2026

[A S Leib]

What are your predictions for railways in 2026? I'm going to start with

• Bicester – Bletchley, the West Midlands' five stations, and Cambridge South will open
• Old Tyne and Wear Metro trains will go
• West Midlands Trains (confirmed for February?) Chiltern, GTR and GWR at a minimum will be renationalised
• Significant new investment (e.g. Leeds tram, reviving HS2 to Manchester or Leeds) will not come if Starmer and Reeves are in place

 

[Magdalia]

The BBC Cambridgeshire news page has an item about big projects modernising the county in 2026. It lists 6 projects, and the first 3 are all rail related: Cambridge South, Waterbeach and Peterborough.

The big projects set to modernise Cambridgeshire in 2026

New railway stations and city centre redevelopments are on the cards for Cambridge and Peterborough.

www.bbc.co.uk

It seems wherever you look in Cambridgeshire there is construction work of some kind going on.

New homes, roads and train stations are among the projects being built.

So how different will the county look by the end of 2026?

Here are some of the projects to watch over the course of the next 12 months.

And hopefully the Cambridge resignalling will be successfully completed on 5 January.

Significant new investment (e.g. Leeds tram, reviving HS2 to Manchester or Leeds) will not come if Starmer and Reeves are in place

There was a spending review earlier this year. Expect some progress on projects that were in the spending review. Money for additional projects of this scale can't be wafted in out of thin air, whoever is in charge.

East West Rail had £2.5bn allocated in the spending review. What I do expect is a final round of consultation, using the powers of the new planning act, prior to a DCO application in 2027. Of particular interest will be how the plans have changed to take account of the Universal Theme Park near Bedford.

 

[yorksrob]

The diabolical fares trial on LNER is declared a disaster and halted forthwith.

(We can but hope).

 

[Kite159]

The diabolical fares trial on LNER is declared a disaster and halted forthwith.

(We can but hope).

Sadly I can see the trial being deemed a success (at raising revenue by removing the price cap of the super off-peak tickets) and extended even further, moving away from LNER onto the Midland Main Line but made simpler by having just anytime flexible tickets or advances.

Reeves will be happy with the extra income it brings in

 

[pokemonsuper9]

DLR B23s enter service properly.
Northern battery and multi mode trains tender awarded.

 

[waverley47]

Winchburgh station starts building in the next few months.

The first tranche of new battery units are ordered, marking an end to pure diesel orders. The last unit with a diesel engine might well be ordered this year, however I somehow doubt it.

The Borders Line extension is killed forever..... Until a new study is commissioned about six months later.

Lumo Stirling services begin, and to nobody's surprise, it's a revenue abstraction exercise with full units on the southern WCML, and empty units north of Preston. There's a hardening of GBR's position against OAOs, with a sunset clause in the GBR legislation for 2029.

The Washington extension of the Metro gets the go ahead, however work won't start until 2027. Similarly the Edinburgh Trams extension.

All in all, I feel that with the growing fear of Reform coming in and gutting public services, and increasing paralysis in government, that this will be another lean year for the railways.

 

[Topological]

TfW will announce the return of the hourly Swanline trains (for the hours where they are missing)

The Marches will be closed for 10 days in total due to weather.

More details of TfW Cardiff to Bristol will emerge.

The Ardwick blockade will complete on time.

(Unclear the realistic ranking of these 4)

 

[Harpo]

The treasury will find another major rail scheme to delay or cancel.

GBR will get further delayed.

To accompany the quarter-century old 175s, GWR will get some even older class 150s.

Another railtour operator will close, or cease running enthusiast charters.

Cross-Country will get worse.

Chiltern will not keep all of its existing DMUs.

And the good news? Er……..

 

[YorkshireBear]

The treasury will find another major rail scheme to delay or cancel.

GBR will get further delayed.

To accompany the quarter-century old 175s, GWR will get some even older class 150s.

Another railtour operator will close, or cease running enthusiast charters.

Cross-Country will get worse.

Chiltern will not keep all of its existing DMUs.

And the good news? Er……..

Just to add more info. GBR will be further delayed leaving the industry in limbo while it haemorrhages good staff and loses more good will.

But for good news, TRU will continue successfully on its current trajectory.

 

[Backroom_boy]

Just to add more info. GBR will be further delayed leaving the industry in limbo while it haemorrhages good staff and loses more good will.

But for good news, TRU will continue successfully on its current trajectory.

Yes i predict the mainstream media will latch onto the 'benefits of nationalisation' failing to miraculously arrive.

 

[Thirteen]

Bakerloo Line stock replacement is ordered by TfL on the same day that the 2024 stock enters service on the Piccadilly Line

Piccadilly Line 2024 stock enters service August 2026.

Alstom is selected as TfL's preferred supplier for new Trams.

 

[yorksrob]

But for good news, TRU will continue successfully on its current trajectory.

And Manchester to York services via Wakefield will continue to flourish.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Dec 2025 ==

Sadly I can see the trial being deemed a success (at raising revenue by removing the price cap of the super off-peak tickets) and extended even further, moving away from LNER onto the Midland Main Line but made simpler by having just anytime flexible tickets or advances.

Reeves will be happy with the extra income it brings in

Alas, I fear you're more likely to be correct.

 

[Kite159]

Also (bad prediction), the treasury takes over the new train ordering, decides that no new trains are needed due and as a cost saving measure they are either cancelling or postponing any tenders for Northern/South Eastern etc.

Meanwhile in Scotland, they cut back on the new train order to focus on replacement for the 318 & 320s with a 6 coach fixed formation unit with 2 coaches where the floor is lower

 

[Bletchleyite]

The LNER fare increase trial will be declared a success and rolled out to TPE, and to other long distance TOCs as they are nationalised.

 

[VItraveller]

On the positive side, I think we’ll get an announcement for the date of the roll out of Oxford to Milton Keynes services, somewhere around 2033 I reckon.

 

[Bletchleyite]

On the positive side, I think we’ll get an announcement for the date of the roll out of Oxford to Milton Keynes services, somewhere around 2033 I reckon.

Actually on that one...Chiltern doesn't introduce the service, rather when it is nationalised their new Bletchley crew depot transfers to whatever bit of GBR takes on WMT, it is announced that the service will be DOO, and there is a protracted and vitriolic period of strikes during which the service remains not in operation.

Wouldn't like to predict the outcome of said strikes though, ie whether it does operate DOO in the end or not.

(Please don't reply to this regarding whether they should or not!)

 

[thenorthern]

The biggest change will undoubtedly be the creation of GBR which let's face it hasn't got off to the best start with many delays and changes.

With several private companies being nationalised, it's possible that Avanti and CrossCountry will be the only privately owned franchises left at the end of the year. As more companies enter the public sector the government will become more accountable for the railways in a same way they are directly accountable for the NHS.

 

[Mgameing123]

Strikes?

 

[gaillark]

Digital signalling will get hacked and will take months to restore.
Funding for HS2 will get cut back further
Cuts in services

 

[vuzzeho]

I'll be a bit more positive.

GBR won't launch properly (it's set to start properly in '27, 12 months after the Bill passes!) but we'll see things about it more.

Northern Powerhouse will get confirmed and they will continually talk about how they're learning from the lessons from HS2. More 895s are ordered.

HS2 Euston will at least have a finalised design. Would be nice if it got funding.

The Northern/GWR/Chiltern and SE new fleet tenders are awarded and someone sues.

WSMR's bid is rejected, again. They give up.

EWR opens between MKC and Oxford. Within 2 months, trains are full and standing, and the press latches onto it.

At least one privatisation-era retro livery applied before GBR comes in. My money's on GWR doing a GWT or FGW wrap on an IET.

Trenitalia runs a Frecciarossa demo train through the Channel Tunnel to St Pancras and announces plans to start a service using a depot in France.

The Railways Bill is held up in the committee stage over ROSCOs. GBR ends up having to create its own ROSCO.

Varamis is bought out or goes bust. Probably not going to get bought out so...

 

[DM352]

As this is a speculative thread, think in 2026 the Northern class 769's get replaced with two coach 150's even if just to cover the unwired zone.

 

[A S Leib]

I'll add Bedlington and Northumberland Park (National Rail) to the opening stations list.

 

[Howardh]

Hope that the railways inside Greater Manchester becoming under the Bee Network is a success, on the other hand if more use it then it becomes over-crowded at peak times so I hope provision is made for that!

Another - hope but expecting nothing - that Bee Network plans focus on parts of GM that are the "Cinderella" areas - Farnworth/Highfield/Hollins to Manchester links (non-existent!) which needs at least a guided busway to link with the one already there from Atherton; and Bolton - Bury which is very poorly served by the slow 471; the train bed is still there but I suppose too much has been built on for a tram or busway, but a direct "fast" limited stop bus would come in handy!

 

[172007]

• Closure precedings will start for Bordesley Station and will close Dec 26
• Oxford Milton Keynes servoces will commence after Chiltern is nationalised at some point with Banbury conductors being used. Moor Street and Stourbridge Conductors will cover the slack and West Midlands conductors will cover Leamington to Stratford and Moor Street.
• Great British Rail will have a board and senior staff recruited in 2026 well in advance of the formal start sl they can hit the ground running.
• Locomotive Services Limited will be told to discontinue using the Intercity branding and colours and will end up in court with the DFT over it.

 

[A S Leib]

Closure precedings will start for Bordesley Station and will close Dec 26

Why Bordesley in particular rather than Stanlow and Thornton, IBM or Teesside Airport?

 

[Mgameing123]

• Closure precedings will start for Bordesley Station and will close Dec 26
• Oxford Milton Keynes servoces will commence after Chiltern is nationalised at some point with Banbury conductors being used. Moor Street and Stourbridge Conductors will cover the slack and West Midlands conductors will cover Leamington to Stratford and Moor Street.
• Great British Rail will have a board and senior staff recruited in 2026 well in advance of the formal start sl they can hit the ground running.
• Locomotive Services Limited will be told to discontinue using the Intercity branding and colours and will end up in court with the DFT over it.

Would it not also be possible to let WMR run some of the Stratford - Leamington services.

 

[172007]

Why Bordesley in particular rather than Stanlow and Thornton, IBM or Teesside Airport?

Because it needs to go for the Midlands Rail Hub and it may well be a convoluted process to close so may be instigated this year.

Would it not also be possible to let WMR run some of the Stratford - Leamington services.

Chiltern have enough drivers for the Oxford Bletchleys. The issue would be recruiting and training new conductors from scratch for it. Hence a shuffle of conductors once both companies come under the government.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Chiltern have enough drivers for the Oxford Bletchleys. The issue would be recruiting and training new conductors from scratch for it. Hence a shuffle of conductors once both companies come under the government.

I think if the decision is against DOO then WMT Bletchley guards are more likely. Indeed I'd be unsurprised to see it launched by WMT rather than Chiltern post nationalisation of both. Giving it to Chiltern always struck me as just an means of getting it to be DOO because they are already a DOO TOC - without the Aylesbury bit it doesn't actually make that much sense for them to do it.

 

[YorksLad12]

The revamped entrance to Leeds Station will open (31 December).

A decision will be made to move the footbridge and lifts from White Rose to Cottingley, so that TRU work can take place in the area (more likely than new funding to finish White Rose off, let's be honest!)

Train interior designers will continue to think it's fine to have pillars in the middle of bays, instead of either side.

EMR's class 810 fleet will all be grounded for an as-yet unidentified fault.

Rail201 celebrations take place.

Heidi Alexander will be replaced. Nothing against her, but transport ministers never seem to last long, for whatever reason.

Something about Altnabeac

 

[A S Leib]

Heidi Alexander will be replaced. Nothing against her, but transport ministers never seem to last long, for whatever reason.

If she lasts that long, she'll have lasted longer than Kelly in March, Hammond in May, Harper in August, Grayling and Shapps two years from now, and Darling in November 2028. To overtake Prescott (and every postwar transport secretary / minister bar Marples), she'll have to be in place until January 2029.