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Quarantine

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yorkie

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There are some people quite clearly taking advantage of the situation to push agendas they've had for a very long - you can expect that kind of opportunism whenever any disruption or significant event happens. There is also a whiff of large-scale graft around some of the huge contracts awarded, which comes down to the same thing. There are also a lot of people who were already too obsessed with making every single thing in front of their noses "safe", and the circumstances have conspired to allow them free reign in a way that's hugely unhelpful for society.

Probably most importantly there are people like Johnson, Hancock and Sturgeon who are aware that they have been making the decisions over the last 6 months, and for the sake of their reputations (and in one or two cases their consciences), they desperately need the decisions to have been right or worth it. They are already on the back foot because the actions they all took in seeding nursing homes with infected people have undoubtedly led to thousands of deaths, and the economic devastation is increasingly clear to all. It's going to be devastating for them personally if it turns out that the virus wasn't bad enough to justify that, or even worse that the vast majority of the harm from the virus was actually caused by the nursing home mess-up, or even that the unrelated deaths from lockdown were actually higher than the deaths from Covid.

Under those circumstances there are plenty of completely understandable individual reasons to cling onto the notion of Coronavirus as the greatest threat of our times. Even for ordinary people who had no power and just had to live through it, it's often important to cling to the sense of a worthwhile sacrifice. Even as it unravels it will be important to keep a narrative going that "nobody predicted this", however loudly and clearly a lot of people outside (and even inside) the bubble were saying it at the time.

You don't need a grand conspiracy or sinister plan to explain any of this. Believing in one is likely to make you unhappy in a way that isn't really warranted right now. More importantly it makes your voice and opinion much easier to ignore. Even the word conspiracy will make most people categorise you as a nutjob.

Honestly, most world-defining events are just like a rolling ball gathering moss. To think that there's some Machiavellian figure out there controlling events is just to buy into the ego trips of idiots like Cummings.
Very well said; this is one of the best posts I've read in a while. Someone pointed me in the direction of this post, and said it sums up how they feel, and I agree.

This is outrageous:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...oded-France-bid-beat-quarantine-deadline.html

A mother who missed the last Eurostar train from Paris to London last night must now quarantine for 14 days with her disabled son after the government's mandatory quarantine kicked in at 4am.

Alexis Walmsley, from Basingstoke, missed her last chance to return to the UK with her son after her train from Avignon to Paris was delayed in Lyon.

She said her son 'won't understand quarantine' and the family 'don't even know where we will sleep tonight'.
To put people through this is unforgivable; all the Government are doing is pandering to people who hate the Government already. It makes no sense.

I don't just blame the Government for this, but ultimately the extremely vocal hysterical "we must do something" minority are to blame; they know who they are and I won't forgive them easily.

The Government needs to stop pandering to those people; none of them will vote for them anyway due to what happened in the early stages.

Those of us in the (relatively) silent majority do not support ludicrous, illogical measures that are so very damaging.
 
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Chester1

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Actually it is the threshold where they start considering action (or dithering, depending on your point of view). There are several countries above 20 that I don't believe are currently restricted, but obviously could soon be if their numbers are consistently going in the wrong direction.

Personally, I prefer the Latvian approach: no dithering, no ambiguity - quarantine is automatically imposed for all countries above a set level, the moment that level is reached.

The numbers are publicly available, and tbh I have very little sympathy with anyone who chooses to go to one of these countries and then finds themselves subject to quarantine. They knew the risk they were taking when they went. Certainly since the example of what happened with Spain, and Boris's public pronouncement that he won't hesitate to act. It is a risk that I will be evaluating carefully closer to the time, for my trips abroad.

Its not a better system and would produce some absurd outcomes. For instance Iceland has a high figure and would be added to the quarantine list based on your wishes. If you dig deeper its very safe. Its a small country with a population of 365,000 that is testing everyone arriving into the country (or making them quarantine if they refuse). The overall figure doesn't reflect spread in the community. They are picking up asymptomatic people who would otherwise be going around their home country and are instead in quarantine in Iceland until they test negative. The British overseas territories and microstates figures can be misleading to, it only takes one inccident to distort the figures.
 

yorkie

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Personally, I prefer the Latvian approach:...
Many thanks to @Chester1 for rebutting this proposal.
...I have very little sympathy with anyone who chooses to go to one of these countries and then finds themselves subject to quarantine....
So you'd have very little sympathy for these people...?
Jo Buckley, the Dunedin Consort's chief executive, told BBC Scotland they knew quarantine was a risk as they travelled to France on Wednesday.

But after four months in lockdown, the musicians were desperate to play together again.

And if they had withdrawn from the concert on the basis of speculation about new restrictions, the organisation would have lost "many thousands of pounds", she added.
Fortunately they made it, by 10 minutes. It's madness to think that they could have been made to quarantine if their crossing had taken a few minutes longer.

As for having little sympathy for such people, let me guess: you have a work from home job and a guaranteed income?

This pandemic is alright for some! In fact, I'm in the category of not having to worry about my livelihood, but I am arguing the case for others, not myself, and that's always been my focus in any of these discussions.
 

bramling

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There are some people quite clearly taking advantage of the situation to push agendas they've had for a very long - you can expect that kind of opportunism whenever any disruption or significant event happens. There is also a whiff of large-scale graft around some of the huge contracts awarded, which comes down to the same thing. There are also a lot of people who were already too obsessed with making every single thing in front of their noses "safe", and the circumstances have conspired to allow them free reign in a way that's hugely unhelpful for society.

Probably most importantly there are people like Johnson, Hancock and Sturgeon who are aware that they have been making the decisions over the last 6 months, and for the sake of their reputations (and in one or two cases their consciences), they desperately need the decisions to have been right or worth it. They are already on the back foot because the actions they all took in seeding nursing homes with infected people have undoubtedly led to thousands of deaths, and the economic devastation is increasingly clear to all. It's going to be devastating for them personally if it turns out that the virus wasn't bad enough to justify that, or even worse that the vast majority of the harm from the virus was actually caused by the nursing home mess-up, or even that the unrelated deaths from lockdown were actually higher than the deaths from Covid.

Under those circumstances there are plenty of completely understandable individual reasons to cling onto the notion of Coronavirus as the greatest threat of our times. Even for ordinary people who had no power and just had to live through it, it's often important to cling to the sense of a worthwhile sacrifice. Even as it unravels it will be important to keep a narrative going that "nobody predicted this", however loudly and clearly a lot of people outside (and even inside) the bubble were saying it at the time.

You don't need a grand conspiracy or sinister plan to explain any of this. Believing in one is likely to make you unhappy in a way that isn't really warranted right now. More importantly it makes your voice and opinion much easier to ignore. Even the word conspiracy will make most people categorise you as a nutjob.

Honestly, most world-defining events are just like a rolling ball gathering moss. To think that there's some Machiavellian figure out there controlling events is just to buy into the ego trips of idiots like Cummings.

A very well written post. You’re absolutely spot on especially with the bit about there being lots of agendas bubbling away beneath the surface of this.

There is little political incentive to let go at the moment, as you rightly say this will only promote questions surrounding was it all worth it, and raise more questions about things like care homes. As it is we’re likely to see a drip-drip-drip feed of bad news and highlighting of mistakes made over the coming weeks, months and perhaps years.

Unfortunately until a greater proportion of the population wake up to all this, we’re not going to move forwards. I’m certainly sensing an increasing number of people who are thoroughly sick of the whole thing; I’m certainly very much up for some “direct democracy” over masks - I’m sick of the bad atmosphere this one measure has avoidably caused - and over a few other things, not least the way some people are using distancing as a means of peddling personal agendas - for a grand example of this look no further than the Government/Sadiq Khan/TFL spat, which still has some way to run.

Ultimately it’s going to have to become the case that the terrified brigade are going to have to come to accept that this lifestyle choice will have to fall upon themselves to manage, and if that means staying at home then so be it, however this should not be at the expense of the taxpayer.
 
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Bantamzen

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I am getting a bit fed up with arguing against blatantly preposterous suppositions. We have a justification, it is called covid-19. It hasn't gone away, it is still here. Would you have us wait until the hospitals are overwhelmed before we do anything? With a virus that has an incubation period of two to three weeks, that is a recipe for disaster. Unfortunately we came very close to that at the beginning of the year, when the government prevaricated about going into lockdown.

No, covid is not a justification for shutting down borders, forcing hard working people to panic and rush home to try and avoid two weeks worth of quarantine just to make a few neurotic people feel a bit safer. Oh and for the record, the average incubation period is around 5 days, not 2-3 weeks as you claim. If you are going to get angry at other people's debating points, at least take time to do a bit of research.

There are some people quite clearly taking advantage of the situation to push agendas they've had for a very long - you can expect that kind of opportunism whenever any disruption or significant event happens. There is also a whiff of large-scale graft around some of the huge contracts awarded, which comes down to the same thing. There are also a lot of people who were already too obsessed with making every single thing in front of their noses "safe", and the circumstances have conspired to allow them free reign in a way that's hugely unhelpful for society.

Probably most importantly there are people like Johnson, Hancock and Sturgeon who are aware that they have been making the decisions over the last 6 months, and for the sake of their reputations (and in one or two cases their consciences), they desperately need the decisions to have been right or worth it. They are already on the back foot because the actions they all took in seeding nursing homes with infected people have undoubtedly led to thousands of deaths, and the economic devastation is increasingly clear to all. It's going to be devastating for them personally if it turns out that the virus wasn't bad enough to justify that, or even worse that the vast majority of the harm from the virus was actually caused by the nursing home mess-up, or even that the unrelated deaths from lockdown were actually higher than the deaths from Covid.

Under those circumstances there are plenty of completely understandable individual reasons to cling onto the notion of Coronavirus as the greatest threat of our times. Even for ordinary people who had no power and just had to live through it, it's often important to cling to the sense of a worthwhile sacrifice. Even as it unravels it will be important to keep a narrative going that "nobody predicted this", however loudly and clearly a lot of people outside (and even inside) the bubble were saying it at the time.

You don't need a grand conspiracy or sinister plan to explain any of this. Believing in one is likely to make you unhappy in a way that isn't really warranted right now. More importantly it makes your voice and opinion much easier to ignore. Even the word conspiracy will make most people categorise you as a nutjob.

Honestly, most world-defining events are just like a rolling ball gathering moss. To think that there's some Machiavellian figure out there controlling events is just to buy into the ego trips of idiots like Cummings.

A very good post. Sadly I am rapidly arriving at the conclusion that the current quarantine measures are less to do with any kind of science, and more to do with politics including the 'B' word.
 

LAX54

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Think many, in fact more and more each day, will agree, now that there is more information, and they have looked at events in past years, more than one has said if it was not for Twitter/FB/365 news channels, things would have carried on as normal, @Belperpete just seems very selfish, all he / she seems to care about is themselves, either that or has been sucked in so much by the hype and Government reports! the exemption list is as long as your arm, and yet we can still go to Turkey where the figure sky rocketed last week ! seems we are more in tune with controlling people, than actually saving the Country, Job loss after Job loss, Business after Business, and NOT all were going to the wall before March !
 

takno

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A very good post. Sadly I am rapidly arriving at the conclusion that the current quarantine measures are less to do with any kind of science, and more to do with politics including the 'B' word.
I think the same politicians will probably spend the same amount of time talking Europe down. It's just that the aim is no longer to get their way, but more to make it look like we did the right thing.

What makes me think that isn't what's happening with quarantine is that the heaviest drive to wreck holidays appears to be coming from Sturgeon, who is most definitely not anti-Europe. It really is just poor politicians who've surrounded themselves with poor advisers reacting stupidly out of blind fear.
 

Meerkat

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Just like to point out a logic failure.
if the quarantine is pointless as it isn’t effectively enforced why are so many people desperately rushing back to avoid it? They must clearly be intending to obey it.
This is all a percentages game. Some people will totally ignore the quarantine, some will do their own version, most will broadly to totally obey it.
Many people travel without tickets But that doesn’t mean we just give up with all revenue protection.
 

takno

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Just like to point out a logic failure.
if the quarantine is pointless as it isn’t effectively enforced why are so many people desperately rushing back to avoid it? They must clearly be intending to obey it.
This is all a percentages game. Some people will totally ignore the quarantine, some will do their own version, most will broadly to totally obey it.
Many people travel without tickets But that doesn’t mean we just give up with all revenue protection.
The percentages involved are absolutely tiny - we're adding the whole of other countries because their rates have risen a tiny bit above the rate here. There is disruption and queues of people milling about caused by the arbitrary deadline, and that will wipe out whatever fraction of a percentage of notional gain you get by shutting things down in a panicked way.

I think you're making the mistake of believing that if it's hurting it must be working. It's quite possible for a policy to be both devastating and ineffective.
 

Meerkat

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But you accept that France‘s rate is high and accelerating?
Increasing the health risk and increasing the tracing difficulty for the UK so that we can export more money to foreign tourist destinations as we enter a recession seems nonsensical.
 

Richard Scott

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But you accept that France‘s rate is high and accelerating?
Increasing the health risk and increasing the tracing difficulty for the UK so that we can export more money to foreign tourist destinations as we enter a recession seems nonsensical.
It might get be increasing but it's not high. Even if you had 5000 new cases a day that's just under 2 million a year, or about 3% of the French population. Not exactly high is it? Think we really need to get a grip on numbers and what they really mean.
 

SouthEastBuses

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Possible next for quarantine: Croatia, Denmark, Turkey, Czech Republic, Switzerland and Greece.

Oh and Portugal's quarantine could be lifted soon.

Evidence here:

New figures suggest that Greece, Turkey, Denmark and Croatia could follow France as the latest countries popular with UK tourists to be put on the government's quarantine list.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson previously warned that ministers would be “absolutely ruthless” in deciding on whether to impose the self-isolation requirement.


Mr Johnson said the Government could not allow the UK’s population to be “reinfected or the disease to come back in”

It has been speculated that holiday favourite Portugal could soon be added to the 'safe' list, but officials may wait a little longer as the rate of cases jumped from 12 to 13.4 per 100,000 residents.

Very interesting to hear this. If this was to happen, it would mean Italy (most of it, some regions still require quarantine on the way to Italy), Montenegro and Albania would be the only Mediterranean countries where you can still fly without any need of quarantine.
 

takno

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But you accept that France‘s rate is high and accelerating?
Increasing the health risk and increasing the tracing difficulty for the UK so that we can export more money to foreign tourist destinations as we enter a recession seems nonsensical.
There are also quite a lot of European tourists who now really can't get here either. Discouraging people in all countries from spending money is the quickest way to create and maintain a recession.
 

Chester1

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Possible next for quarantine: Croatia, Denmark, Turkey, Czech Republic, Switzerland and Greece.

Oh and Portugal's quarantine could be lifted soon.

Evidence here:



Very interesting to hear this. If this was to happen, it would mean Italy (most of it, some regions still require quarantine on the way to Italy), Montenegro and Albania would be the only Mediterranean countries where you can still fly without any need of quarantine.

Arrivals from Montenegro and Albania are not exempt from quarantine. Italy is probably the only safe option for a beach holiday by the med in September.

The media are loving speculating about quarantine decisions. Greece and Turkey will probably keep sufficiently close to the 20 cases per 100,000 figure that some discretion will be exercised to delay any possible quarantine until after the school holidays end. France went miles above the threshold and didn't leave the government with much choice. Their rate is more than twice that of the UK in the last 7 days. Spain is eye wateringly high (115 per 100,000) and is only avoiding seeing a large number of deaths because its overwhelmingly spreading amongst young people.
 

Chester1

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Just not prudent at all in my view. A pandemic is not a time for international travel.

You have expressed this view in several dozen posts. Simply stating it again in two sentences doesn't add anything to the discussion.
 

SouthEastBuses

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Arrivals from Montenegro and Albania are not exempt from quarantine. Italy is probably the only safe option for a beach holiday by the med in September.

The media are loving speculating about quarantine decisions. Greece and Turkey will probably keep sufficiently close to the 20 cases per 100,000 figure that some discretion will be exercised to delay any possible quarantine until after the school holidays end. France went miles above the threshold and didn't leave the government with much choice. Their rate is more than twice that of the UK in the last 7 days. Spain is eye wateringly high (115 per 100,000) and is only avoiding seeing a large number of deaths because its overwhelmingly spreading amongst young people.

Well that only leaves Italy as the quarantine exempt country in the Mediterranean then lol

(Unless if Cyprus is also exempt from quarantine requirements)

As for @Bletchleyite I kinda agree with you. As much as international travel is important and amazing, now wasn't really a good time to relax the quarantine requirements (not only for the UK but everywhere around the world).
 

Chester1

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Don't expect any sympathy if you do go to Italy and it ends up dropping off the list then! :)

I won't book anything more than a week or so in advance and won't book there if a quarantine is looking remotely likely. I work from home and have enough food for two weeks stored so it wouldn't be a huge inconvenience in the unlikely event that I got caught out by a quick quarantine decision.

I didn't post any photos on Facebook from my last holiday but I am really tempted to share a very large number from my next holiday to wind up kill joys. Going to a country with a rate of less than half that of the UK is less risky than going by train to a UK holiday destination.
 

Richard Scott

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Don't expect any sympathy if you do go to Italy and it ends up dropping off the list then! :)
There's no way I'd expect you to express any sympathy! However if people aren't going abroad they're going to British beaches which seems to cause people to fuss about that. What do you expect them to do?
 

Scrotnig

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Just not prudent at all in my view. A pandemic is not a time for international travel.
I'm afraid I have to agree with you again on this, that's twice in just a few days.

I cannot understand the rush for 'frivolous' international travel while there's a major pandemic going on. It's easy for me to say though as I haven't gone abroad since 2003 and have no desire to. For me even a UK holiday is off the agenda this year. It just isn't the time.
 

Richard Scott

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I'm afraid I have to agree with you again on this, that's twice in just a few days.

I cannot understand the rush for 'frivolous' international travel while there's a major pandemic going on. It's easy for me to say though as I haven't gone abroad since 2003 and have no desire to. For me even a UK holiday is off the agenda this year. It just isn't the time.
To be honest is it really a major pandemic now? The numbers aren't actually that big in majority of European countries. It's actually the politicians making things difficult; I'm not convinced their actions are really reducing deaths as these are almost in single figures in majority of countries anyway.
 

Chester1

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I'm afraid I have to agree with you again on this, that's twice in just a few days.

I cannot understand the rush for 'frivolous' international travel while there's a major pandemic going on. It's easy for me to say though as I haven't gone abroad since 2003 and have no desire to. For me even a UK holiday is off the agenda this year. It just isn't the time.

Because people want to live there lives as normal as possible and that includes going on holiday.

Looking at the language used by people on this site and elsewhere much of the opposition is instinctive. Why would a UK holiday be safer than Italy? I guess if you are driving, stay in self catered and you are very careful to social distance when out and about it might be safer. I think its crazy that people booking a week in a hotel in the UK etc think they are in a position to judge people going to low risk countries. I respect people making your decision to avoid holidays full stop or take a very socially distanced UK break. I don't respect people taking basically the same holiday as me but thinking its more ethical, when its really just about the UK being their comfort zone. The idea that the average hotel or B&B in UK is currently safer than one in Italy is bonkers and easily refuted by case statistics.
 

Scrotnig

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Because people want to live there lives as normal as possible and that includes going on holiday.

Looking at the language used by people on this site and elsewhere much of the opposition is instinctive. Why would a UK holiday be safer than Italy? I guess if you are driving, stay in self catered and you are very careful to social distance when out and about it might be safer. I think its crazy that people booking a week in a hotel in the UK etc think they are in a position to judge people going to low risk countries. I respect people making your decision to avoid holidays full stop or take a very socially distanced UK break. I don't respect people taking basically the same holiday as me but thinking its more ethical, when its really just about the UK being their comfort zone. The idea that the average hotel or B&B in UK is currently safer than one in Italy is bonkers and easily refuted by case statistics.
It's not really about it being safer, it's about the unpredictability of foreign travel and the possibility of arbitrary quarantines being imposed on return.
 

Chester1

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It's not really about it being safer, it's about the unpredictability of foreign travel and the possibility of arbitrary quarantines being imposed on return.

That explains peoples reluctance to go abroad themselves but it certainly doesn't explain some peoples differing attitudes towards other peoples holidays.
 

AM9

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Because people want to live there lives as normal as possible and that includes going on holiday.

Looking at the language used by people on this site and elsewhere much of the opposition is instinctive. Why would a UK holiday be safer than Italy? I guess if you are driving, stay in self catered and you are very careful to social distance when out and about it might be safer. I think its crazy that people booking a week in a hotel in the UK etc think they are in a position to judge people going to low risk countries. I respect people making your decision to avoid holidays full stop or take a very socially distanced UK break. I don't respect people taking basically the same holiday as me but thinking its more ethical, when its really just about the UK being their comfort zone. The idea that the average hotel or B&B in UK is currently safer than one in Italy is bonkers and easily refuted by case statistics.
Italy itself (at the moment) has a lower infection rate than the UK. Flying 150 people in an aluminium tube for two hours breathing shared air creates conditions for transmission. Don't forget, the first wave of COVID-19 was imported by people travelling into and out of areas where the infection was higher. The second wave is by-product of relaxing restrictions, in particular, free travel between areas of infection. So expect quarantines to be imposed as required (at short notice to limit the numbers that frustrate the impact of those quarantines). If people want to waste thei money on failed holidays, that's their privilege, but all the complaints about 'not getting enough warning' will be ignored, - except by the media looking for victims and somebody to demonise.
 

RomeoCharlie71

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It's all very good putting a quarantine in place, but if nobody's going to enforce it then what's the point?

At present, it's pretty unenforceable. And is any effort being made to try to enforce it?
 

Richard Scott

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Italy itself (at the moment) has a lower infection rate than the UK. Flying 150 people in an aluminium tube for two hours breathing shared air creates conditions for transmission. Don't forget, the first wave of COVID-19 was imported by people travelling into and out of areas where the infection was higher. The second wave is by-product of relaxing restrictions, in particular, free travel between areas of infection. So expect quarantines to be imposed as required (at short notice to limit the numbers that frustrate the impact of those quarantines). If people want to waste thei money on failed holidays, that's their privilege, but all the complaints about 'not getting enough warning' will be ignored, - except by the media looking for victims and somebody to demonise.
The chance of anyone having it on the aircraft is low and remember air inside aircraft is replaced frequently so very little chance of catching anything whilst flying. Where is this second wave? There may be an increase in numbers but it's very slow and definitely not a wave. The countries experiencing high increases are those that had very few infections in the first place so arguably are on their first wave.
 

bramling

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Italy itself (at the moment) has a lower infection rate than the UK. Flying 150 people in an aluminium tube for two hours breathing shared air creates conditions for transmission. Don't forget, the first wave of COVID-19 was imported by people travelling into and out of areas where the infection was higher. The second wave is by-product of relaxing restrictions, in particular, free travel between areas of infection. So expect quarantines to be imposed as required (at short notice to limit the numbers that frustrate the impact of those quarantines). If people want to waste thei money on failed holidays, that's their privilege, but all the complaints about 'not getting enough warning' will be ignored, - except by the media looking for victims and somebody to demonise.

I love your term “failed holidays”!

Have to say I’m genuinely torn over the quarantining. We could certainly have done without so many imported cases back in February from things like ski trips, but that was before all the social distancing measures came into being here. However if we’re trying to get away from that and keep cases manageable then we could do without imported cases now too.

However it’s easy for me to say as I don’t do foreign holidays myself, and judging by the state our beaches and honeypots are being left in on a daily basis, to be honest I’d rather people did their normal thing and went to Ibeza, and left our sites for those who know how to treat them!
 

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Looking at the language used by people on this site and elsewhere much of the opposition is instinctive. Why would a UK holiday be safer than Italy?

To clarify, it isn't about how safe from COVID you are, as you are right that you can probably vary that more by your actions (e.g. where you go in that country and what sort of accommodation you choose) than by which country you go to. It's more that it's clear that this will cause disruption to international travel and that a plane is fairly high-risk. There is the potential to get stuck or to end up having to quarantine. The reason I support quarantine is "divide and conquer" rather than absolute risk - I think all countries should impose strict quarantine from all destinations, as that way it can be solved domestically and only then reopen borders, the reason being that daily life is more important than holidays and discretionary business travel which is most of it.
 
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