Proposed new Channel Tunnel services discussion

[Mikey C]

If you were doing touristy things in Kent, you are probably driving there. There's a small market in people who don't want to drive on the other side of the road but might go to Canterbury Cathedral or Dover Castle, but this is going to be pretty low level.

Or you take a coach tour. Canterbury is packed with European visitors during the summer, I'm sure many do it as an organised day trip or weekend break, and such coach tours can pick people up from their own town, rather than having to go to Lille (or Calais if trains start stopping there again) to pick up a Eurostar.

 

[Trainlog]

If you were doing touristy things in Kent, you are probably driving there. There's a small market in people who don't want to drive on the other side of the road but might go to Canterbury Cathedral or Dover Castle, but this is going to be pretty low level.

Or you take a coach tour. Canterbury is packed with European visitors during the summer, I'm sure many do it as an organised day trip or weekend break, and such coach tours can pick people up from their own town, rather than having to go to Lille (or Calais if trains start stopping there again) to pick up a Eurostar.

As I said, I don't expect this to be on the same level as Disneyland or as transformative as the legacy of the Elizabeth line over the past three years in terms of passenger numbers. However, the ability for Ashford to be a destination choice as opposed to just London St Pancras will certainly help in the resilience of public transport Channel crossing links, rather than just road-based ones.

From Ashford, you can be in most places by rail in Kent in 20 minutes to an hour, with the exceptions of parts of the NKML and Chatham mainline. These destinations can be easily promoted as part of a day trip for visitors coming to the UK from countries like France or Belgium.

Kent can be visited very easily without a car, and apart from Ashford or areas like Ebbsfleet/Bluewater area, which can cope with road traffic, it's certainly a lot less hassle to travel to places like Canterbury by train instead.

The level of connecting traffic between Marshlink and HS1 at Ashford will be very low, certainly not enough to drive infrastructure change on it's own. Marshlink might make a case for extending the double-track for a half-hourly service between Hastings and Rye on it's own, but the idea that hordes of people from the East Sussex coast will be travelling to Ashford for the continental train is rather optimistic

Again, I am hardly expecting hordes of people from East Sussex rushing to Ashford International for onward connections to the continent. However, Rye is very popular as a tourist attraction these days and rightly so, it's a lovely town to spend the afternoon at and can get quite busy on Saturdays.

Granted, the Marshlink is hardly a priority in terms of rail infrastructure. Personally, I think more work needs to be done on somewhere like the GWML electrification programme first than a small diesel island on the Kent/East Sussex border.

However, that's not to say if the trends show an increase in the rates of tourism at Rye from domestic and potentially in the future, International, the hourly 'diesel island' isnt a can that can be kicked down the road anymore.


Unfortunately, TrenItalia says that Ashford would be back up and running by 2029 which is still a little while away yet. However, when it does reopen, I would welcome the data and encourage the promotion of Kent tourist attractions on the continent so that the only destination isn't just London St Pancras.

Eurostar rival says it will bring trains back to Kent station

A rival to Eurostar has said it would bring international trains back to Kent if it is allowed to operate.

www.kentonline.co.uk

TLDR of Source: 'Ferrovie dello Stato Italiane wishes to stop at Ashford International by at least 2029; however, Issues at Temple Mills Depot surrounding storage are the main reason no competitor to Eurostar has started running International services yet'

 

[Roast Veg]

Ashford would be largely for British people from Kent and Sussex. It's got a nice big car park, isn't far from the motorway, and is pretty well connected by rail to Kent. There ought to be a market for more than zero trains per day from such a place.

Outside of the peak summer season, I'm not sure how you could fill even one train with such irregular passengers.

 

[StephenHunter]

Outside of the peak summer season, I'm not sure how you could fill even one train with such irregular passengers.

There is an "if you can build it, they will come" effect to some railways. The Elizabeth line has not just taken people off the Central line, but also resulted in people taking journeys they wouldn't have done before.

 

[Roast Veg]

There is an "if you can build it, they will come" effect to some railways. The Elizabeth line has not just taken people off the Central line, but also resulted in people taking journeys they wouldn't have done before.

My point is that "they" will come, but only when it suits them. That doesn't make for a regular service.

 

[zwk500]

There is an "if you can build it, they will come" effect to some railways. The Elizabeth line has not just taken people off the Central line, but also resulted in people taking journeys they wouldn't have done before.

I wouldn't be drawing many conclusions about the potential market for international travel via Ashford from the Elizabeth line.

 

[StephenHunter]

I wouldn't be drawing many conclusions about the potential market for international travel via Ashford from the Elizabeth line.

Modal shift is a thing though.

 

[zwk500]

Modal shift is a thing though.

Modal shift is a thing, but a very different thing to induced demand or the release of suppressed demand. All of them are going to be in play. The question is to what level? And key within that is whether the number of passengers on offer will be worth Eurostar or any other operator incurring the 7 minute penalty to London Passengers. If there's a government subsidy on offer, of course that would also swing the dial. But in the current political-economic climate subsidising journeys between the UK and the continent looks a very far-off proposition.

I would suggest that given the operational requirements for the station, focusing Ashford calls into a burst of morning pickups for Europe and evening set-downs from Europe is likely to be the best hope of building a financially sustainable market at Ashford.

In the long run, if other capacity constraints can be eased, then service could be expanded to give two-way all-day services as part of a regular pattern. However for as long as international services remain (at least nominally) a wholly commercial affair, it should be recognised that Ashford and Ebbsfleet are annoying distractions to the core market of London.

 

[Trainlog]

In the long run, if other capacity constraints can be eased, then service could be expanded to give two-way all-day services as part of a regular pattern. However for as long as international services remain (at least nominally) a wholly commercial affair, it should be recognised that Ashford and Ebbsfleet are annoying distractions to the core market of London.

Sure, but let's be honest, we all have stations we wish we didn't have to stop at. I find stopping at Stevenage irritating after just leaving King's Cross 20 minutes beforehand. Bromley South on the Maidstone East line is another frustrating one for me. I am sure that in 10 years' time, there will be people on here complaining about stopping at Old Oak Common just after leaving Paddington on the GWML.

But that's the thing, other people will use those stations. London will always be the priority for International services, but a 7-minute time penalty to stop in Kent barely feels like a massive deal in the grand scheme of things, at worst, as you say, a slight annoyance.

There is an "if you can build it, they will come" effect to some railways. The Elizabeth line has not just taken people off the Central line, but also resulted in people taking journeys they wouldn't have done before.

Granted, I would like to see Ashford International being brought back as well, but a part of me wishes at this point, the Elizabeth line were built out to Ebbsfleet International just so the unprofitable argument from Eurostar stops and as a way for Londoners to benefit as well from it.

 

[ShadowKnight]

Regarding the previous low usage of Ashford and ebbsfleet stations. Relatively low cost marketing can go a long way to induce demand. I would suppose Eurostar never really bothered to creatively advertise and get people using those stations. Someone like Virgin probably could

 

[zwk500]

Sure, but let's be honest, we all have stations we wish we didn't have to stop at. I find stopping at Stevenage irritating after just leaving King's Cross 20 minutes beforehand. Bromley South on the Maidstone East line is another frustrating one for me. I am sure that in 10 years' time, there will be people on here complaining about stopping at Old Oak Common just after leaving Paddington on the GWML.

But that's the thing, other people will use those stations. London will always be the priority for International services, but a 7-minute time penalty to stop in Kent barely feels like a massive deal in the grand scheme of things, at worst, as you say, a slight annoyance.

Agreed, but if you are filling the train at the origin then stopping the train again is a completely pointless waste of time. The 7-minute penalty to stop at Ashford will be a big deal if it means lower revenue for the operator (especially considering the costs to operate an International station in the UK).
I think that with 2 operators or an expanded Eurostar there would exist sufficient capacity to justify the extra stops, but as it stands the hourly Paris and 2-hourly Brussels pattern is pretty much full all the time from London.

Granted, I would like to see Ashford International being brought back as well, but a part of me wishes at this point, the Elizabeth line were built out to Ebbsfleet International just so the unprofitable argument from Eurostar stops and as a way for Londoners to benefit as well from it.

Dartford is certainly being talked about as a future extension, but I think it was the right call to stop Crossrail at the edge of NR and not try and introduce a third interface at the start.

 

[cle]

Dartford is certainly being talked about as a future extension, but I think it was the right call to stop Crossrail at the edge of NR and not try and introduce a third interface at the start.

I agree. A relatively simple extension like Dartford would be good over time, but ideally Ebbsfleet / Gravesend would add another large town and more interchange potential. But yes, would have overloaded the project with cost and ambition - more nice to have.

 

[ShadowKnight]

A dedicated northfleet - ebbsfleet walking connection would need to be built or have trains reverse at Gravesend to go one stop back to make the connection between NR and HS1 truly attractive

 

[zwk500]

A dedicated northfleet - ebbsfleet walking connection would need to be built or have trains reverse at Gravesend to go one stop back to make the connection between NR and HS1 truly attractive

A dedicated walking connection is simple enough to provide, tbh.

 

[TrainTraveler]

"As Euston might now be smaller, it might be possible to still add another junction in same area, even if at this stage no HS1-HS2 link is dug. Many people think it would be foolish not to add junction provision, especially with a reduced size Euston (lack of it will permanently prevent both European services getting to Birmingham, and some services from Midlands and North being extended to Ebbsfleet or Ashford for International connections)."

While I don't see international services beyond St Pancras with the current border requirements, both for a future HS2 - HS1 link and possible access to "classic" Euston, junction "civils" for "step plate style junctions in the Camden area" would seem a sensible provision.


The quote was from post 1589 (note added)

 

[321362]

A dedicated northfleet - ebbsfleet walking connection would need to be built or have trains reverse at Gravesend to go one stop back to make the connection between NR and HS1 truly attractive

I remember visiting and being shocked that there already isn't one.

 

[zwk500]

"As Euston might now be smaller, it might be possible to still add another junction in same area, even if at this stage no HS1-HS2 link is dug. Many people think it would be foolish not to add junction provision, especially with a reduced size Euston (lack of it will permanently prevent both European services getting to Birmingham, and some services from Midlands and North being extended to Ebbsfleet or Ashford for International connections)."

While I don't see international services beyond St Pancras with the current border requirements, both for a future HS2 - HS1 link and possible access to "classic" Euston, junction "civils" for "step plate style junctions in the Camden area" would seem a sensible provision.

Where is this quote from, sorry?

 

[cle]

I remember visiting and being shocked that there already isn't one.

If the car parks became walkable civic space (think Cambridge North developments) - it could be rebranded as Ebbsfleet and possibly with an 'airside' walkway. But probably only if CR was extended.

 

[Birkonian]

I live in Wirral. I've been travelling on Eurostar for many years, mostly, but not exclusively, to Belgium. If I want to arrive at my destination at a reasonable time (lunch), I have two options:
1. Get up at the crack of dawn to take one the earliest Avantis from Lime Street.
2. Go down the day before and pay for an expensive hotel in London.
I would be open to travelling to Ashford or nearby and staying in a cheaper hotel than I can find in London.
Demand isn't necessarily from the obvious places.

 

[TheWierdOne]

Final statements have been given to the ORR who are due to decide fairly imminently on the use of that rare commodity known as "depot space at Temple Mills". New nuggets of info below.

Station pledges and punchy responses on capacity in final Temple Mills submissions

Trenitalia has made a commitment to Ashford while Eurostar has said it is not obliged to facilitate investments that would disrupt its current operations.

www.railmagazine.com

Trenitalia France said it would look at potential intermediate stops including Ashford in “a subsequent phase” after starting direct London St Pancras-Paris Gare du Nord services, however RAIL understands it has now revised this to say it would serve Ashford immediately.
[...]

The Italian state-owned operator also reiterated that phase two would be to extend services to other destinations it already serves, such as Lyon, Marseilles and Milan.
[...]
Trenitalia also plans to create an innovation hub in Ashford, its first outside Italy. It’s understood the intention is to create places where businesses and investors can work with start-ups and young entrepreneurs on business opportunities and problem solving.

Gemini plans to start and finish at Stratford International and call at Ebbsfleet. It said Ashford is not part of its initial business plan, saying: “Our decision in this regard was taken based on the assumption that the costs of re-enabling both Ebbsfleet and Ashford would not be supported by the benefit of both.

“As well as station access charges, any operator will incur separate costs for UK Border Force, PAF, security and other necessary enablers as well as its own staffing.”

However, it welcomed potential government appetite to enter discussions with successful operator(s) about “potential financial support to re-open all intermediate stations”.

It told ORR: “Gemini would like to put on record its willingness to consider adding Ashford to its stopping pattern in light of the offer put forward by the Minister.

“However, we also recognise that such a move would require a change to the international paths on LSPH (HS1) with earlier departure times from Stratford to accommodate an Ashford stop to maintain the dedicated Channel Tunnel paths.”

There's a short statement from Virgin restating their plans and declining to commit to Ashford, and then Eurostar have a nice whinge about potentially losing their depot space because they haven't pulled their finger out and ordered new trains

 

[Citybreak1]

Looking forward to the Siemens trains Uber have ordered

 

[TheWierdOne]

Amid all the news about the Eurostar order, it’s worth keeping an eye on the ORR. The guardian is reporting they made a provisional decision yesterday (21st October), I.e: before the Eurostar purchase was announced. I wonder if the ORR were made aware of the purchase in advance, or indeed if it would have made a difference to their decision making. Eurostar aren’t planning to have the double deckers in service before 2031, well behind the start up date for Virgin or Trenitalia. Could the ORR tell Eurostar to find space elsewhere?

Eurostar to run doubledecker trains through Channel tunnel from 2031

Operator signs €2bn deal with Alstom amid boom in international rail travel from UK

www.theguardian.com

Virgin has also signed a deal with Alstom, to buy 12 Avelia high-speed trains – a type currently in use in Italy and Sweden – should the regulator grant it depot space. The ORR is understood to have made a provisional decision at a board meeting on Tuesday, and is due to confirm it by 31 October.

 

[NCT]

The 50 sets are all 200m units (30 firm + 20 option), and are only sufficient to replace the existing 26 PBA/PBKA and 11 Class 373 (in effect 22) sets. If they replace the PBA/PBKAs first then anything happening at Temple Mills is even further away, and even then there shouldn't be an increase in stabling requirements (save for any transitional periods where both old and new trains need to be stabled).

 

[Trainbike46]

The 50 sets are all 200m units (30 firm + 20 option), and are only sufficient to replace the existing 26 PBA/PBKA and 11 Class 373 (in effect 22) sets. If they replace the PBA/PBKAs first then anything happening at Temple Mills is even further away, and even then there shouldn't be an increase in stabling requirements (save for any transitional periods where both old and new trains need to be stabled).

Except that apparently all the maintenance will be at Temple Mills:

Eurostar plans to maintain the entire fleet at the Temple Mills depot in London, which would be developed to accommodate the new trains at a cost of around €80m. The new fleet will create around 350 more highly skilled jobs at the depot, continuing its heritage as a centre of excellence for international high-speed rail. Today, over half of all Eurostar jobs are already UK-based, with 450 of those based at Temple Mills.

From: https://mediacentre.eurostar.com/mc_view?article_Id=ka4WS0000000Y6XYAU

 

[zwk500]

Except that apparently all the maintenance will be at Temple Mills:


From: https://mediacentre.eurostar.com/mc_view?article_Id=ka4WS0000000Y6XYAU

Although of course Eurostar aren't legally or contractually obliged to implement their press releases...

 

[Zomboid]

Although of course Eurostar aren't legally or contractually obliged to implement their press releases...

I can't imagine why they'd be wanting to say "look at how much work Temple Mills is going to have" just at the moment...

 

[Trainbike46]

Although of course Eurostar aren't legally or contractually obliged to implement their press releases...

An entirely fair point. However, unless the press release is spouting nonsense that will be very easy to spot for the regulator, it does suggest the more in-depth plans would involve early introduction on at least some UK services.

I can't imagine why they'd be wanting to say "look at how much work Temple Mills is going to have" just at the moment...

It's a mystery for the ages!

Frankly though, I don't think "we will maintain trains that will operate services between Amsterdam and Paris at Temple Mills" is a good argument to give the spare capacity to Eurostar, if anything I would suggest the opposite!

Edited to correct temple meads to temple mills

 

[Zomboid]

think "we will maintain trains that will operate services between Amsterdam and Paris at Temple Meads

Given what it costs to run through the tunnel, they'll obviously do no such thing.

 

[Trainbike46]

Given what it costs to run through the tunnel, they'll obviously do no such thing.

I would assume they would run in passenger service, on diagrams like Amsterdam-Paris-London, not ECS.

It is possible, but in my view should make the ORR less likely to give spare capacity to Eurostar, not more (the latter is presumably what Eurostar want).

 

[Zomboid]

I suppose they won't necessarily need to keep the red/ blue distinction with new trains so such operations will be possible.