Peter Sarf
Established Member
My bold. That is quite a long time I agree BUT I really hope they start to build one or two HS2 trains soon and get them thoroughly tested before rushing into building the entire fleet with bugs baked in. Of course the risk there is the customer is unlikely to settle on a final design / formation any time soon !.I feel like they’re making them quite quickly, if they’re close to testing the second and third units out of 10, and this order is meant to be tiding them over until they start building the trains for HS2 as they said, if the HS2 trains don’t need to be in service for a decade from now. Their original request was for a minimum order of 5 units, and they got an order for 10. Will they have to go back to the Government begging for another emergency order to keep the factory open before then again? Perhaps the 3 more options for trains on the original Crossrail contract of 13 optional orders, which haven’t yet been ordered? There’s no guarantee that they’ll win the forthcoming Southeastern or ScotRail tenders which are the closest to being awarded from now, and they haven’t won any bi-mode tenders before now for the other possible tenders, which don’t have any news of being close to awarded yet (Northern, GWR, TransPennine Express, Chiltern, possibly TfW, maybe SWR).
I assume the costs of lead up to production and awaiting money from the customer are borne by the banks (or loans from somewhere), As long as firm orders are there. So interim orders will be more for keeping staff on the payroll which, long term, reduces costs of training.
As for progress it does feel like, at this rate, summer 2027. That is because 345071 was sent from Derby on 14/07/2026 and 345072 sent on 17/08/2026, that is 33 days elapsed between the first two units. So for ten units we could assume 330 days which from 14/07/2026 is roughly mid June 2027. I am assuming no variation in progress that is more associated with a new design.
The following is a bit off topic except the purpose of the order for these 345s was to keep Derby going and also buy more of an existing design while still available from Derby.
Only two days ago I pondered if some more 710s are needed ?.
Something like 730s for Northern perhaps ?.
I think we can rule out any more 701s and 720s ?.
What are the latest ridership figures like for the Elizabeth line (Crossrail) ?.
Perhaps a new thread if folks are interested ?.
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