Predictions for 2023

[43074]

The reaction to the May timetable change will make further reductions and cuts politically impossible

Great British Railways does not make it through parliament, leaving the industry in another 12 months of paralysis. Workforce reform is forced through but nevertheless morale and productivity hit and all time low.

Rail passengers in the north begin a campaign of civil disobedience (like the FGW fares strike in 2007) to protest against poor unreliability on TPE, forcing the DfTs hand to agree to renew the ASLEF overtime agreement.

Class 701s will finally enter service however brand new 720s and 730s for north of the river will end up stored and surplus to requirements at Worksop.

XC withdraw the HSTs but with no additional stock to compensate to match DfT budget constraints. In Scotland ASLEF refuse to work them from August meaning this will be the last year in which HSTs will be in passenger service.

EMR Connect will be remapped to Thameslink and the 360s will be a suprise withdrawal.

 

[dk1]

Isn’t it about time we had a new Secretary of State for Transport? This one’s gone a bit stale.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Isn’t it about time we had a new Secretary of State for Transport? This one’s gone a bit stale.

That was why I only referred to the job title, not a person

 

[dk1]

That was why I only referred to the job title, not a person

Love it. Those comedy capers will continue well into 2023.

 

[Kite159]

The 350/2s will still be in service in a years time. Can't disagree with any of your other predictions.

2023 could see the end of the Network Railcard, and the London Travelcard agreement.

That will be one way to reduce usage within the South East and push single passengers aged between 31 & 59 towards using alternative forms of transport rather than paying an extra 33% for rail journeys.

Also will reduce people who visit London using outer boundary travelcards suddenly having to pay a lot more for the drawbacks of using contactless/oyster

 

[kevconnor]

[jokemade]

• Government intransigence with the Unions will worsen, with communication only being made via Pete Waterman acting as an intermediary.
• Avanti will reach a new low point when they start cancelling staff taxi’s owing to lack of available electric vehicles.
• Sunak, thinking he can make money to pay down the national debt, will sell the entire network to Booths for scrap metal value.
• TfL financial woes will be lessened after they cotton onto the idea of renting out the now remaining vacated ticket offices on AirBnB.
• Micromanagement from DfT will reach new depths as an argument breaks out over what brands of tea should be sold on LNER. DaFT sign a 10 year management contract for supplies from Lancashire Tea for the entire network, much to the chagrin of the population of Yorkshire.

[/jokemade]

 

[JonathanH]

That will be one way to reduce usage within the South East and push single passengers aged between 31 & 59 towards using alternative forms of transport rather than paying an extra 33% for rail journeys.

Also will reduce people who visit London using outer boundary travelcards suddenly having to pay a lot more for the drawbacks of using contactless/oyster

I think it would make more sense for those changes to come in from 2024, alongside Project Oval (extension of Contactless).

Making changes in 2023 that change again a year later doesn't really make sense. Aligning it with convenience and simplicity of Contactless in 2024 makes for a much easier message.

So maybe 2023 is the year to make the most of the current fare structure with changes to come in 2024.

 

[liamf656]

Interesting to note that you're not predicting the entry into service of the much-delayed class 777s for Merseyrail.

This one just completely slipped my mind!! I should hope they do enter service in 2023

Great British Railways does not make it through parliament, leaving the industry in another 12 months of paralysis. Workforce reform is forced through but nevertheless morale and productivity hit and all time low.

This one wouldn’t surprise me

Class 701s will finally enter service however brand new 720s and 730s for north of the river will end up stored and surplus to requirements at Worksop.

This one puts me in two minds, I hope that they don’t end up in storage

XC withdraw the HSTs but with no additional stock to compensate to match DfT budget constraints. In Scotland ASLEF refuse to work them from August meaning this will be the last year in which HSTs will be in passenger service.

This one seems fairly likely

EMR Connect will be remapped to Thameslink and the 360s will be a suprise withdrawal.

This one not so much but as you say we may be surprised

Isn’t it about time we had a new Secretary of State for Transport? This one’s gone a bit stale.

Agreed!

 

[WizCastro197]

Not really, they only just extended it to East Croydon

I agree, having the service extended to East Croydon (ECR) helps those at Selhurst, Thornton Heath perhaps even Norbury to connect with mainline Southern services and Thameslink faster than going to Clapham Junction for a southern service, then changing again fro a Thameslink service. If they do in fact withdraw services, which seems unlikely, what will platform 16&17 do? More terminating capacity for London Overground?

Southern will get 377/5s?
Will we see if anyone has answered Southeastern's tenders (although one of them seems rather hard to match criteria)?

 

[778]

I think it would make more sense for those changes to come in from 2024, alongside Project Oval (extension of Contactless).

Making changes in 2023 that change again a year later doesn't really make sense. Aligning it with convenience and simplicity of Contactless in 2024 makes for a much easier message.

So maybe 2023 is the year to make the most of the current fare structure with changes to come in 2024.

Is there any possible way the Network Railcard could stay after 2024?

 

[Thirteen]

Despite the best efforts of some on here that the railways are somehow heading for closure, it'll still be running.

 

[JonathanH]

Is there any possible way the Network Railcard could stay after 2024?

We are only speculating!

However, the current minimum fare provision doesn't work with the single fare pricing associated with Contactless. Clearly, the Network Railcard covers an area bigger than is covered by Project Oval.

 

[Philip]

Rail unions and workers will rapidly start to lose the remaining public support that they currently have for the industrial dispute, as the focus turns towards the industrial dispute within the NHS and postal workers, worsened by government/media spin and propaganda. By summer it might be one way to ruin a first date by telling them that you work for the railway...

 

[The Ham]

Timetables will continue to be reduced where needed, and at the very least suggestions will be put in for branch line closures

I however disagree, we're at 2009 passenger numbers (circa 1.2bn) for the last 12 months of quarterly data (3 of those months were the end of 2021 when rail use was still very low with Covid worries - for example a load of Christmas parties were cancelled), as such things are likely as bad as they'll get.

By this time in 2023 the available data, even with strikes, will show a reasonable level of uplift in passenger numbers from this. Possibly circa 1.5bn (just repeating the numbers from the last quarter for the next four would get us to circa 1.4bn), possibly more - depending on how the strikes work out.

Despite the best efforts of some on here that the railways are somehow heading for closure, it'll still be running.

Not only still running but with more passengers than at least 100 of the last 150 years (actually we're almost there, so that's not much of a prediction)

Rail unions and workers will rapidly start to lose the remaining public support they currently have for the industrial dispute, as the focus turns towards the industrial dispute within the NHS and postal workers, worsened by government/media spin propaganda. By summer it might be one way to ruin a first date by telling them that you work for the railway...

The railways are getting more support than "normal", as they aren't the only industry striking. Also with the ability to WFH strike days become the days people do so and then they go in over the days following.

 

[Philip]

The railways are getting more support than "normal", as they aren't the only industry striking. Also with the ability to WFH strike days become the days people do so and then they go in over the days following.

The industrial action we're in the middle of now won't help with public support at all. A lot of people will be asking "why did they have to go on strike over Christmas?". The feeling I'm getting from people I know who don't work in rail is that there is some sympathy for NHS workers, but not so much the case for rail.

 

[Thirteen]

The industrial action we're in the middle of now won't help with public support at all. A lot of people will be asking "why did they have to go on strike over Christmas?". The feeling I'm getting from people I know who don't work in rail is that there is some sympathy for NHS workers, but not so much the case for rail.

Nurses and paramedics striking is a bigger deal because it's such a rare thing. Rail unions going on strikes is old hat especially in places like London.

 

[dk1]

Rail unions and workers will rapidly start to lose the remaining public support that they currently have for the industrial dispute, as the focus turns towards the industrial dispute within the NHS and postal workers, worsened by government/media spin and propaganda. By summer it might be one way to ruin a first date by telling them that you work for the railway...

Yeah yeah yeah

 

[JonathanH]

A lot of people will be asking "why did they have to go on strike over Christmas?".

A lot of people won't really be caring because they never intended to use the railway over Christmas.

Ongoing strikes throughout 2023 seem highly probable, particularly if the reforms are simply implemented without agreement.

 

[Philip]

Yeah yeah yeah

It's true and I work in rail and have been taking part in the strikes. However, I think we're fighting a losing battle as the government will either sit it out and be content with the industry savings being made on strike days, or potentially intervene where it hurts with something more drastic like the choice of either signing a completely new contract or taking a mediocre redundancy package.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Dec 2022 ==

Ongoing strikes throughout 2023 seem highly probable, particularly if the reforms are simply implemented without agreement.

The government may include some changes to strike ballot rules as part of the reforms, in time for when the current strike mandate expires in June, to reduce the leverage of the unions.

 

[dk1]

It's true and I work in rail and have been taking part in the strikes. However, I think we're fighting a losing battle as the government will either sit it out and be content with the industry savings being made on strike days, or potentially intervene where it hurts with something more drastic like the choice of either signing a completely new contract or taking a mediocre redundancy package.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Dec 2022 ==



The government may include some changes to strike ballot rules as part of the reforms, in time for when the current strike mandate expires in June.

Me too but try to look on the positive side.

 

[tbtc]

Whilst I can buy the arguments for a “Seven Day” timetable, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Government use the ongoing industrial relationship problems as an excuse to slash evening/ Sunday services (outside of InterCity, where Sunday is a very busy day). If you can’t persuade staff to volunteer for rest days or to accept the sabbath inside the regular working week then maybe there’ll be the temptation to make huge cuts to the Provincial network “to ensure the reliability of services” (as the excuse will no doubt frame it)

The Government to restore Tinsley to the size that the marshalling yard was at its 1970s peak (albeit to use the facility to store the hundreds of surplus DMU/ EMU carriages that the Treasury won’t allow TOCs to lease)

Labour to do well in the opinion polls with a high profile policy of bringing the railway into public control (because ordinary voters don’t realise that it already is, and like the sound of the “Magic Bullet” that is Nationalisation)

The DfT to “solve” the reliability problems in the Hope Valley (where the TOCs try to provide services between Sheffield and Manchester, but frequently scrap their diagrams and leave it to the others to pick up the strain) by introducing a fourth TOC to create even more chaos

No station closures, but certainly fewer stations will get an “all day every day” service - get ready for the BR-style Death Of A Thousand Cuts

A “last 769” running day, as we mourn the death of a well intended idea that Porterbrook etc couldn’t properly deliver on

Another application from Go-op to run yet another strange route that involves Trowbridge

ScotRail to get twelve diagrams run by their fleet of HSTs on at least one day in 2023

A lot of people won't really be caring because they never intended to use the railway over Christmas

I’d argue that trains are like churches and rubbish pubs - there’s a certain amount of the population who only use them at Christmas time (and base their opinion on that one experience a year) - the long schlep home to visit family is a tradition amongst some people who don’t need heavy rail for the other fifty one weeks a year

 

[Sly Old Fox]

Nothing good will happen.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Not really, they only just extended it to East Croydon

Yeah i know but that can save another unit and go and tell teh DfT look we can get rid of another 313

 

[PGAT]

Yeah i know but that can save another unit and go and tell teh DfT look we can get rid of another 313

Most trains get full before even Clapham Junction, so saving a unit isn’t worth it for such a loss

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Most trains get full before even Clapham Junction, so saving a unit isn’t worth it for such a loss

A few in the rush hour do but rest of the day they don't although ive travelled back off late night weekday services from Harrow plenty of times and they are well used although Shepherds Bush is still where the bulk of people board (of course shows how dependant our society is on retail!). Personally i totally agree these services should be retained and Southern could cull plenty of other services that carry around fresh air all day o save money although they aren't one thats costing lots of subsidy per passenger carried so may not have such stringent targets anyhow and did the hard work with losing the 455's.

 

[liamf656]

Nothing good will happen.

Ever the optimist!

 

[Egg Centric]

At least forty stations will begin closure proceedings or will be mothballed.

DOO will be either accepted or imposed in England

HS2 cancelled in a very stupid way which makes it more expensive than completing it. Decision reversed a few months later at even more cost.

There will be some kind of fatal incident that will be interpreted differently depending on whose side you are on with some kind of relation to the current disputes

Everyone will lose in the GTR class action thing apart from lawyers

More attacks on staff by the few remaining passengers

A plague of locusts o'er the land

 

[Bishopstone]

Change on the railway is glacially slow, because the various parties can rarely agree it’s in their mutual interests to do anything.

So my prediction for 2023 is that hardly anything will happen, but much time and angst will be spent worrying about things that could happen, but don’t.

 

[jj1314]

A tech bro will invest in one of the ROSCOs and offer rolling stock at peppercorn rates, undermining the Government and ultimately triggering an early general election.

 

[JonathanH]

A tech bro will invest in one of the ROSCOs and offer rolling stock at peppercorn rates, undermining the Government and ultimately triggering an early general election.

Interesting idea. However, I don't think that investment in railway rolling stock would bring down a government. It won't be top of the shopping list for a 'tech bro' either.