Similar to the previous post where we predicted what would happen in 2022 then revisited it at the end of the year, I thought I’d share my thoughts on what would happen in 2023. Some of these may be far fetched, but all are based on my own opinion.
1. Timetables will continue to be reduced where needed, and at the very least suggestions will be put in for branch line closures
2. Micro fleets will be withdrawn without replacement, or at least have a set date of withdrawal in 2024, beginning with the EMR 180s, the Chiltern loco hauled stock and possibly even the XC HSTs
3. The current industrial action both inside and outside the rail industry will continue into the spring before the government gives in and talks to the unions. (personally I am hoping this is resolved asap)
4. Staff shortages will get worse before it gets better, especially with the likes of Avanti and TPE, the latter of which will enter into an emergency timetable after admitting that the Dec 22 timetable was too ambitious
5. I personally don’t think the 350/2 and 379 will find new homes and will be scrapped, but separate threads are ongoing on this subject
6. Grand Central will either choose to, or get told to, plan a stock replacement scheme to ensure no more diesel trains are running into Kings Cross. This may be the only new fleet mentioned this year, however I am more inclined to say that this will happen sometime in the next 5 years
7. The 197, 701 and 730 both may finally enter service this year, which will see off a lot of older stock, as per the next point
8. Some fleets won’t be so lucky in finding new operators, the obvious ones will be the Northern 319s, the 455s, the GWR 769s, but I might be pessimistic in saying that the 350/2 and 379 will also join this list
9. The Marston Vale will run smoother as it’s permanent 230 replacement is allocated
10. On the Isle of Wight, they may be a bit more successful with the 484s, at least for this year
11. TfW decide to hold onto their 175 and 158 fleets a bit longer, even if new fleets are being phased into service
12. We may see some new lines or stations opened this year, including the Levenmouth Line and the stations between Walsall and Wolverhampton, as well as the Camp Hill route
13. LNER discuss replacements to it’s IC225 fleet, but orders may not be placed yet
14. Fleet refurbishments will either be postponed indefinitely or called off entirely, for a few operators
15. EMR’s 810 fleet may slip further into 2024, at least where the main introduction is concerned.
Like I say some of these may be far fetched but it’ll be interesting to see where these ideas go or even if some turn out false, what would happen instead
Let’s hear your predictions
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