Predictions for 2023

[liamf656]

Similar to the previous post where we predicted what would happen in 2022 then revisited it at the end of the year, I thought I’d share my thoughts on what would happen in 2023. Some of these may be far fetched, but all are based on my own opinion.

1. Timetables will continue to be reduced where needed, and at the very least suggestions will be put in for branch line closures
2. Micro fleets will be withdrawn without replacement, or at least have a set date of withdrawal in 2024, beginning with the EMR 180s, the Chiltern loco hauled stock and possibly even the XC HSTs
3. The current industrial action both inside and outside the rail industry will continue into the spring before the government gives in and talks to the unions. (personally I am hoping this is resolved asap)
4. Staff shortages will get worse before it gets better, especially with the likes of Avanti and TPE, the latter of which will enter into an emergency timetable after admitting that the Dec 22 timetable was too ambitious
5. I personally don’t think the 350/2 and 379 will find new homes and will be scrapped, but separate threads are ongoing on this subject
6. Grand Central will either choose to, or get told to, plan a stock replacement scheme to ensure no more diesel trains are running into Kings Cross. This may be the only new fleet mentioned this year, however I am more inclined to say that this will happen sometime in the next 5 years
7. The 197, 701 and 730 both may finally enter service this year, which will see off a lot of older stock, as per the next point
8. Some fleets won’t be so lucky in finding new operators, the obvious ones will be the Northern 319s, the 455s, the GWR 769s, but I might be pessimistic in saying that the 350/2 and 379 will also join this list
9. The Marston Vale will run smoother as it’s permanent 230 replacement is allocated
10. On the Isle of Wight, they may be a bit more successful with the 484s, at least for this year
11. TfW decide to hold onto their 175 and 158 fleets a bit longer, even if new fleets are being phased into service
12. We may see some new lines or stations opened this year, including the Levenmouth Line and the stations between Walsall and Wolverhampton, as well as the Camp Hill route
13. LNER discuss replacements to it’s IC225 fleet, but orders may not be placed yet
14. Fleet refurbishments will either be postponed indefinitely or called off entirely, for a few operators
15. EMR’s 810 fleet may slip further into 2024, at least where the main introduction is concerned.

Like I say some of these may be far fetched but it’ll be interesting to see where these ideas go or even if some turn out false, what would happen instead

Let’s hear your predictions

 

[778]

Similar to the previous post where we predicted what would happen in 2022 then revisited it at the end of the year, I thought I’d share my thoughts on what would happen in 2023. Some of these may be far fetched, but all are based on my own opinion.

1. Timetables will continue to be reduced where needed, and at the very least suggestions will be put in for branch line closures
2. Micro fleets will be withdrawn without replacement, or at least have a set date of withdrawal in 2024, beginning with the EMR 180s, the Chiltern loco hauled stock and possibly even the XC HSTs
3. The current industrial action both inside and outside the rail industry will continue into the spring before the government gives in and talks to the unions. (personally I am hoping this is resolved asap)
4. Staff shortages will get worse before it gets better, especially with the likes of Avanti and TPE, the latter of which will enter into an emergency timetable after admitting that the Dec 22 timetable was too ambitious
5. I personally don’t think the 350/2 and 379 will find new homes and will be scrapped, but separate threads are ongoing on this subject
6. Grand Central will either choose to, or get told to, plan a stock replacement scheme to ensure no more diesel trains are running into Kings Cross. This may be the only new fleet mentioned this year, however I am more inclined to say that this will happen sometime in the next 5 years
7. The 197, 701 and 730 both may finally enter service this year, which will see off a lot of older stock, as per the next point
8. Some fleets won’t be so lucky in finding new operators, the obvious ones will be the Northern 319s, the 455s, the GWR 769s, but I might be pessimistic in saying that the 350/2 and 379 will also join this list
9. The Marston Vale will run smoother as it’s permanent 230 replacement is allocated
10. On the Isle of Wight, they may be a bit more successful with the 484s, at least for this year
11. TfW decide to hold onto their 175 and 158 fleets a bit longer, even if new fleets are being phased into service
12. We may see some new lines or stations opened this year, including the Levenmouth Line and the stations between Walsall and Wolverhampton, as well as the Camp Hill route
13. LNER discuss replacements to it’s IC225 fleet, but orders may not be placed yet
14. Fleet refurbishments will either be postponed indefinitely or called off entirely, for a few operators
15. EMR’s 810 fleet may slip further into 2024, at least where the main introduction is concerned.

Like I say some of these may be far fetched but it’ll be interesting to see where these ideas go or even if some turn out false, what would happen instead

Let’s hear your predictions

The 350/2s will still be in service in a years time. Can't disagree with any of your other predictions.

2023 could see the end of the Network Railcard, and the London Travelcard agreement.

 

[The Planner]

You won't see those West Mids stations open I suspect.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Combining your 1 and your 9, it will be announced (or not announced and just quietly happen) that the Marston Vale will remain a bus operation until EWR to Oxford is completed and opened, at which point they will start running trains on it using the 196s or whatever they end up using. Only a single unit will be available, so a targetted service will operate on weekdays and two hourly on Saturdays.

The station consolidation work probably won't happen but Kempston Hardwick will close for now due to it being the main platform length issue.

 

[liamf656]

Combining your 1 and your 9, it will be announced (or not announced and just quietly happen) that the Marston Vale will remain a bus operation until EWR to Oxford is completed and opened, at which point they will start running trains on it using the 196s or whatever they end up using.

Interesting to think about actually. I knew I had contradicted myself with those two points but didn’t know how to feel about the Marston Vale. It’ll be interesting to see how it pans out but I’d expect your proposition to be most likely

 

[yorksrob]

I dread to think.

 

[TheSel]

Interesting to note that you're not predicting the entry into service of the much-delayed class 777s for Merseyrail.

 

[deltic]

Given TOCs have been told to reduce operating costs by 10% I reckon the following

Busitution of many rural services
Earlier last trains and later first trains
Closure of most ticket offices
Further push to extend DCO
Continuing industrial relations issues as Govt refuses to back down and workers start drifting back due to cost of living pressures
Non-regulated fares edge up to close to 10% increases
First class continues to be withdrawn or offer downgraded where it continues
Fewer trains offer any on-board catering
More stations become unstaffed

 

[dk1]

Given TOCs have been told to reduce operating costs by 10% I reckon the following

Busitution of many rural services
Earlier last trains and later first trains
Closure of most ticket offices
Further push to extend DCO
Continuing industrial relations issues as Govt refuses to back down and workers start drifting back due to cost of living pressures
Non-regulated fares edge up to close to 10% increases
First class continues to be withdrawn or offer downgraded where it continues
Fewer trains offer any on-board catering
More stations become unstaffed

So that’s the good news. Any negative opinions?

 

[Peter0124]

Does the 10% operating cost reduction affect Scotrail services?

 

[Energy]

Given TOCs have been told to reduce operating costs by 10% I reckon the following

For clarity, TOCs are receiving the same amount of money this year, in real terms it is an about 10% loss due to inflation.

Each TOC will be affected differently, if they have a fixed price on their stock from the ROSCO they will be less affected.

 

[bramling]

Similar to the previous post where we predicted what would happen in 2022 then revisited it at the end of the year, I thought I’d share my thoughts on what would happen in 2023. Some of these may be far fetched, but all are based on my own opinion.

1. Timetables will continue to be reduced where needed, and at the very least suggestions will be put in for branch line closures
2. Micro fleets will be withdrawn without replacement, or at least have a set date of withdrawal in 2024, beginning with the EMR 180s, the Chiltern loco hauled stock and possibly even the XC HSTs
3. The current industrial action both inside and outside the rail industry will continue into the spring before the government gives in and talks to the unions. (personally I am hoping this is resolved asap)
4. Staff shortages will get worse before it gets better, especially with the likes of Avanti and TPE, the latter of which will enter into an emergency timetable after admitting that the Dec 22 timetable was too ambitious
5. I personally don’t think the 350/2 and 379 will find new homes and will be scrapped, but separate threads are ongoing on this subject
6. Grand Central will either choose to, or get told to, plan a stock replacement scheme to ensure no more diesel trains are running into Kings Cross. This may be the only new fleet mentioned this year, however I am more inclined to say that this will happen sometime in the next 5 years
7. The 197, 701 and 730 both may finally enter service this year, which will see off a lot of older stock, as per the next point
8. Some fleets won’t be so lucky in finding new operators, the obvious ones will be the Northern 319s, the 455s, the GWR 769s, but I might be pessimistic in saying that the 350/2 and 379 will also join this list
9. The Marston Vale will run smoother as it’s permanent 230 replacement is allocated
10. On the Isle of Wight, they may be a bit more successful with the 484s, at least for this year
11. TfW decide to hold onto their 175 and 158 fleets a bit longer, even if new fleets are being phased into service
12. We may see some new lines or stations opened this year, including the Levenmouth Line and the stations between Walsall and Wolverhampton, as well as the Camp Hill route
13. LNER discuss replacements to it’s IC225 fleet, but orders may not be placed yet
14. Fleet refurbishments will either be postponed indefinitely or called off entirely, for a few operators
15. EMR’s 810 fleet may slip further into 2024, at least where the main introduction is concerned.

Like I say some of these may be far fetched but it’ll be interesting to see where these ideas go or even if some turn out false, what would happen instead

Let’s hear your predictions

One for those in the London area, watch out for a dispute between TFL, the government and the unions over changes to the pension setup. That could kick off quite soon into 2023. Things are already in the “phoney war” period.

 

[xotGD]

My one prediction, with a touch of wishcasting:

Class 68s operating a comprehensive service across the Pennines that passengers/cranks can rely on.

 

[Bald Rick]

Interesting. I made comments on the predictions made by @Goldfish62 last year, and have spent this afternoon carefully chewing through my hat.

but I’ll have another go on some of these…

1. Timetables will continue to be reduced where needed, and at the very least suggestions will be put in for branch line closures

That’s a certainty

2. Micro fleets will be withdrawn without replacement, or at least have a set date of withdrawal in 2024, beginning with the EMR 180s, the Chiltern loco hauled stock and possibly even the XC HSTs

near certainty

3. The current industrial action both inside and outside the rail industry will continue into the spring before the government gives in and talks to the unions. (personally I am hoping this is resolved asap)

The RMT action will end this year, but it won’t be Government “giving in and talking to the unions”. Government has already spoken to the unions recently, as reported. .

4. Staff shortages will get worse before it gets better, especially with the likes of Avanti and TPE, the latter of which will enter into an emergency timetable after admitting that the Dec 22 timetable was too ambitious

They’re not short of staff…

5. I personally don’t think the 350/2 and 379 will find new homes and will be scrapped, but separate threads are ongoing on this subject

There’s a middle way where they don’t find new work, but don’t get scrapped.

6. Grand Central will either choose to, or get told to, plan a stock replacement scheme to ensure no more diesel trains are running into Kings Cross. This may be the only new fleet mentioned this year, however I am more inclined to say that this will happen sometime in the next 5 years

Very unlikely.

13. LNER discuss replacements to it’s IC225 fleet, but orders may not be placed yet

Orders won’t be placed.

 

[43066]

I made comments on the predictions made by @Goldfish62 last year, and have spent this afternoon carefully chewing through my hat.

If you don’t mind, out of interest (briefly), what was different to how you expected this year?

 

[Bald Rick]

If you don’t mind, out of interest (briefly), what was different to how you expected this year?

I thought the plans for GBR would be well established by now, however I didn’t predict two changes of PM!

Also I was sure the 701s would enter service…

 

[Energy]

Also I was sure the 701s would enter service…

I think many expected further progress by now!

 

[Trainlog]

A temporary decline in passenger numbers for the first quarter of the year due to the £2 bus cap giving a cheaper alternative outside of the Capital for local travelling and the rail strikes going on in January.

 

[Philip]

The RMT and Government will eventually agree on a compromise arrangement regarding DOO in that all TOCs will begin trialling it on select lines, in return for no reductions in current on-train staff and also current guards retaining their safety critical role until at least Jan 2025.

Some B'ham Snow Hill services will see 172s replaced with 196s.

Wildcard - CrossCountry sign a lease
for use of some 350/2s and 185s (when they become available) to boost capacity/indirectly replace HSTs.

 

[Energy]

The RMT and Government will eventually agree on a compromise arrangement regarding DOO in that all TOCs will begin trialling it on select lines, in return for no reductions in current on-train staff and also current guards retaining their safety critical role until at least Jan 2025.

Fair enough

Some B'ham Snow Hill services will see 172s replaced with 196s

196s are for additional Snow Hill services and running in Leamington to Nuneaton.

 

[Benjaminmorgan]

My predictions are in May 2023 Southern timetable change to withdraw services on the West London Line & West Coast Main Line from Clapham Junction to Watford Junction?

 

[JonathanH]

My predictions are in May 2023 Southern timetable change to withdraw services on the West London Line & West Coast Main Line from Clapham Junction to Watford Junction?

That would certainly be one way of releasing the remaining 313s.

 

[Ken H]

I think some intelligent thinning may occur
In my area:-
Do Leeds- Morecambe trains all need to go to Leeds. Could they not become a Skipton - Morecambe shuttle. Passengers change at Skipton.
Does Skipton - Shipley need 4 trains an hour? Probably in the 'rush hour', but a lot of the time Bradford may need a change at Shipley.
Leeds - Carlisle could be thinned in winter. maybe some trains could be just Leeds - Ribblehead.
I am not sure sending LNER trains to Harrogate is value for money. Plenty of Northern trains to connect at Leeds. I would look very hard at LNER trains going to Skipton and Bradford also.

 

[Benjaminmorgan]

Because Clapham Junction to Watford Junction people can change at Willesden Junction for London Overground service to Wembley Central Harrow & Wealdstone and Watford Junction?

 

[PGAT]

My predictions are in May 2023 Southern timetable change to withdraw services on the West London Line & West Coast Main Line from Clapham Junction to Watford Junction?

I find that unlikely, those trains are rammed even off-peak.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

My predictions are in May 2023 Southern timetable change to withdraw services on the West London Line & West Coast Main Line from Clapham Junction to Watford Junction?

Makes sense to curtail them to C.Jcn to Watford Jcn rather than East Croydon

 

[PGAT]

Makes sense to curtail them to C.Jcn to Watford Jcn rather than East Croydon

Not really, they only just extended it to East Croydon

 

[Bertie the bus]

• The Network Rail dispute will be over by Valentines Day but the TOC dispute will continue until the summer.
• HS2 north of Birmingham will be completely shelved.
• NPR will be cancelled except for a few enhancements to the current routes.
• TPE’s issues will still be causing serious problems for the entire year. So much so that ridership will be decimated, services slashed and the entire fleet of Mk 5as withdrawn, some being exported.

 

[dk1]

It’s being so cheerful that’s keeping everyone going on this thread

 

[SuspectUsual]

The Secretary of State for Transport will make a series of threatening-sounding comments about potentially taking action against Avanti and TPE, in part to take some of the wind out of Andy Burnham's sails, but nothing will actually happen as a result