Post HS2 service assumptions using released capacity

[irish_rail]

5 minutes more when you've been on a train from Plymouth for about 3 hours it's hardly going to be a big change in journey times.

Whilst SW to Birmingham and Manchester is likely to be unattractive via Old Oak Common, travel to places like Newcastle is likely to be quite a bit quicker (circa 5:30 vs circa 7 hours - Plymouth to Newcastle), also for travel from Swindon, Reading, Basingstoke, etc there's the potential for a lot of travel heading northwards which would be much faster than the existing services.

For instance Basingstoke Birmingham is boarder line as to speed, however Reading Birmingham is faster, with Manchester, Leeds, York, etc being faster via Old Oak Common.

There's also a reasonable flow to/from Heathrow, so it wouldn't be surprising to see a good number of people changing there as it provides better connectivity for them than other routes.

So it's ok to extend journey times from the south west to London, yet journeytimes to the north from London must be reduced at all costs. If it's ok to make south west journeys to london a few minutes slower, why not build hs2 far cheaper as a 125mph line as clearly according to you journey times are not important. Or is it just the people of the south west who are not important???

Moderator note: Southwest discussion continues in https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/hs2-or-southwest-improvements.206857/

 

[Ianno87]

It is a question of overall balance of benefits.
There is an overall gain to be had for the majority of passengers if all GWML trains stop at Old Oak Common. If you are travelling from the South West to West or North London, you may also benefit by changing at OOC, because of the greater range of connections than can be afforded at Paddington. It is the end-to-end journey time that get considered, not station-to-station.

And, by changing at Old Oak Common rather than Paddington, many existing users who change to the Tube will get a journey time benefit from bypassing the congestion at Paddington tube station.

 

[agbrs_Jack]

More an aspiration than an assumption but:

2 tph at Congleton Mon-Sat
1 tph Sundays

 

[Stephen Lee]

The latest service pattern assumptions used to model the impacts of HS2 have been released

Of interest are the service patterns assumed to be in place to use released capacity

These include

Only 1tph East Coast service permitted north of Northallerton which is a slow London - Edinburgh with the present extensions to Aberdeen and Inverness
16tpd each King’s Cross to Middlesbrough, Lincoln, Nottingham and Hull (the latter in addition to Hull train services which I cant imagine will survive such an uplift in competition)
All Great Western and Heathrow Express trains to call at Old Oak Common
Euston to Crewe (London Midland) extended to Manchester Victoria via Warrington - untill Phase 2b opens when it goes to Piccadilly
Blackpool - Euston open access goes
All Euston to Blackpool / Preston services removed due to lack of capacity.
Cross Country services from Newcastle to south coast to run from Hull instead

Phased opening of HS2

a) 3tph Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street
b) as above plus 1 tph OOC to Manchester Piccadilly via Wilmslow, 1tph OOC to Liverpool and 1tph to Glasgow
c) 3tph London Euston to Curzon St, 3tph Euston to Manchester Picc, 2tph Euston to Liverpool, 1tph to Preston and 1tph to Glasgow

full phase 2b
3tph Euston to Birmingham
3tph Euston to Manchester
2tph Euston to Liverpool (1 splits at Crewe)
1tph Euston to Preston (Splits at Crewe from Liverpool service)
1tph to Macclesfield via Stoke
2tph to Glasgow/Edinburgh - both split at Carstairs
3tph to Leeds (1 splits at Toton)
2tph to Sheffield (splits at Toton from Leeds and York services )
1 tph to York (splits at Toton)
2 tph to Newcastle
2tph Birmingham to Manchester
1/2tph Birmingham to Glasgow
1/2tph Birmingham to Edinburgh
2tph Birmingham to Leeds
1tph Birmingham to Newcastle

Full details can be found at and can be found at https://assets.publishing.service.g...097/PFMv9_Assumptions_Report_Revision1_1_.pdf

Given the full Phase 2b if it does happen isn't likely to open till around 2040 a lot can change in the meantime

Don't forget some chiltern railways services are proposed to divert and terminate at OOC instead

 

[si404]

Don't forget some chiltern railways services are proposed to divert and terminate at OOC instead

Not under these assumptions.

Because if you assume it in the model for the HS2 business case when its not in the baseline, it gets added to the HS2 budget...

 

[deltic]

Don't forget some chiltern railways services are proposed to divert and terminate at OOC instead

This is an aspiration and not a committed scheme and hence not included in the modelling scheme. Interested to know if any work has been done developing a business case for it

 

[The Ham]

Strange as it may sound, I'd never thought to consider whether a person's worth is related to their rail journey time to London. I suggest you should consider self-worth by different criteria. After all, we are all a little lower than the angels, and crowned with glory and honour.

Ultimately the number of GW trains stopping at OOC will be determined by whether the balance of connectivity against slightly slower journey times produces greater passenger demand. HS2 trains will all stop at OOC. This will make for slower journeys too, but that disadvantage is more than offset by the tremendous connectivity offered at OOC. My guess is the calculus will be the same for GW services.

There's a thread split in process:

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/hs2-or-southwest-improvements.206857/#post-4681806