Possible WAML Changes?

[greataj]

Could we see any changes with WAML services as a result of the nationalisation of GA and more specifically, Cambridge South openening and the ECML timetable changes coming next year?

All XC services extended beyond Cambridge to Stansted is almost a no-brainer and should be coming, including Cambridge South calls. I wonder if they would reintroduce Audley End as a regular call too, I suspect possibly not?

With regards to the 2tph Liverpool St-Cambridge runs, it's clear now as expected these both will include Cambridge South. Could this potentially though result in a service reduction elsewhere, with either Audley End or Whittlesford Parkway being removed from the semi-fast runs?

The GA Norwich-Cambridge extensions to Stansted look to remain to an off-peak timetable for the forseeable. I understand the limitation there as these paths give way to the additional peak runs from Ely/Cambridge-Liverpool St but I do question the value of these against an all-day Norwich-Stansted service. Given the additional capacity the new rolling-stock has added since the previous fleet, plus the fact commuter traffic is still below pre-Covid levels, it would seem more enticing to me to run an extended airport service which better serves early-morning/late-evening flights and where passenger numbers through Stansted Airport are now well above pre-Covid levels.

Cambridge-Liverpool St. runs usually 2tph in daytime hours (1 semi-fast, 1 all-stations to Cheshunt), but currently operates 4tph at peak until 9am Monday-Friday. I would have thought there would be scope to run instead 3tph at peak on Cambridge-Liverpool St (1 semi-fast and 2 all-stations; as to ensure train separation along the WAML and still maintain a peak service uplift at all the intermediate stops towards London). That would still be a 50% uplift on Cambridge-Liverpool St compared to off-peak/weekends. That then in theory could allow the Stansted extensions to run on the Norwich-Cambridge services throughout, essentially in place of 1 semi-fast towards Liverpool St south of Cambridge.

Could the ECML timetable change potentially allow for WAML timetables to be adjusted in future to allow for peak-time Stansted extensions to take place in this way, as I understand one of the limitations currently is marying-up the paths north and south of Cambridge around peak timetabling for a full Norwich-Stansted service?

 

[Magdalia]

When contributing to discussions like this, I'm trying to get used to looking at the data here: https://railalefan.co.uk/labs/flowstats/

I think these are the 2022/23 one way flows, I haven't yet found a good source of the 2023/24 data at this level of detail.

They key flows for the Bishops Stortford/Stansted Airport-Cambridge section are:

Cambridge-Stansted Airport 183068
Audley End-Liverpool Street 151753
Whittlesford-Liverpool Street 80780
Cambridge-Audley End 69343
Cambridge-Whittlesford 53593
Cambridge-Shelford 53061
Cambridge-Bishops Stortford 51838
Cambridge-Liverpool Street 44149
Audley End-Tottenham Hale 34012
Cambridge-Tottenham Hale 33641
Elsenham-Bishops Stortford 30394

it would seem more enticing to me to run an extended airport service which better serves early-morning/late-evening flights and where passenger numbers through Stansted Airport are now well above pre-Covid levels.

Cambridge-Stansted Airport is the biggest flow and should now be taking priority.

Could this potentially though result in a service reduction elsewhere, with either Audley End or Whittlesford Parkway being removed from the semi-fast runs?

I think not. These are the two stations that have significant flows to/from London, and they also have big flows to/from Cambridge.

Two important factors are missing from your analysis. The most important is train lengths. As far as I can tell from Real Time Trains the only 10 car peak trains to London are 0620/0650/0745 Cambridge, 0638 Cambridge North and 0650 Ely. In the evening only 1737 Cambridge North and 1713/1743/1813 Cambridge are 10 cars. One way to free up paths to/from Stansted Airport is to run fewer but longer trains to/from Liverpool Street. But these would need to offer decent journey times for Audley End/Whittlesford-London journeys, all stations north of Cheshunt doesn't deliver that.

The second missing factor follows on from the first and is platform lengths, especially at Stansted Airport. This is a major constraint on improving the Cambridge-Stansted Airport service.

What I'd be looking for is 2tph Liverpool Street-Cambridge in the peaks but using the fast paths south of Bishops Stortford. The stoppers would carry on, but not run north of Bishops Stortford. I've no idea if that could be made to work at Cambridge mixed with the GN 2025 timetable.

 

[Halish Railway]

Do the Cambridge to Liverpool Street services still have the same end-to-end journey times that they had when they were worked by 317s? If so and given the superior acceleration of the 720s there should be space to squeeze in an additional stop whilst maintaining the same end-to-end journey times.

 

[greataj]

Do the Cambridge to Liverpool Street services still have the same end-to-end journey times that they had when they were worked by 317s? If so and given the superior acceleration of the 720s there should be space to squeeze in an additional stop whilst maintaining the same end-to-end journey times.

I don't feel that would be sufficient to squeeze in an extra service, but would love to be told otherwise. Given the 4x peak services from Cambridge-Liverpool St tend to depart around XX:15, XX:20, XX:45 and XX:50 it would suggest the frequency is not as important as the capacity. I'm in full agreement that the Stansted Airport services from Cambridge/Norwich, given the passenger flows, should be taking priority over these.

 

[William3000]

Could we see any changes with WAML services as a result of the nationalisation of GA and more specifically, Cambridge South openening and the ECML timetable changes coming next year?

All XC services extended beyond Cambridge to Stansted is almost a no-brainer and should be coming, including Cambridge South calls. I wonder if they would reintroduce Audley End as a regular call too, I suspect possibly not?

With regards to the 2tph Liverpool St-Cambridge runs, it's clear now as expected these both will include Cambridge South. Could this potentially though result in a service reduction elsewhere, with either Audley End or Whittlesford Parkway being removed from the semi-fast runs?

The GA Norwich-Cambridge extensions to Stansted look to remain to an off-peak timetable for the forseeable. I understand the limitation there as these paths give way to the additional peak runs from Ely/Cambridge-Liverpool St but I do question the value of these against an all-day Norwich-Stansted service. Given the additional capacity the new rolling-stock has added since the previous fleet, plus the fact commuter traffic is still below pre-Covid levels, it would seem more enticing to me to run an extended airport service which better serves early-morning/late-evening flights and where passenger numbers through Stansted Airport are now well above pre-Covid levels.

Cambridge-Liverpool St. runs usually 2tph in daytime hours (1 semi-fast, 1 all-stations to Cheshunt), but currently operates 4tph at peak until 9am Monday-Friday. I would have thought there would be scope to run instead 3tph at peak on Cambridge-Liverpool St (1 semi-fast and 2 all-stations; as to ensure train separation along the WAML and still maintain a peak service uplift at all the intermediate stops towards London). That would still be a 50% uplift on Cambridge-Liverpool St compared to off-peak/weekends. That then in theory could allow the Stansted extensions to run on the Norwich-Cambridge services throughout, essentially in place of 1 semi-fast towards Liverpool St south of Cambridge.

Could the ECML timetable change potentially allow for WAML timetables to be adjusted in future to allow for peak-time Stansted extensions to take place in this way, as I understand one of the limitations currently is marying-up the paths north and south of Cambridge around peak timetabling for a full Norwich-Stansted service?

If they are going to take out stops on the semi-fast runs I would have thought it far more prudent to take out stops further south like Broxbourne or Cheshunt that already have several more services to London than Audley End and Whittlesford Parkway which rely heavily on their semi-fasts to London - you only have to look at the passenger numbers there compared to Shelford and Great Chesterford to see the benefits of not only faster services into London but also more frequent services into Cambridge.

 

[higthomas]

I know GA were/are planning a WAML service change to reflect Cambridges growing importance, probably now in December 25 to coincide with the ECML timetable change/Cambridge South. I wonder if anyone here actually knows what that's planned to involve.

Based on my experience I think the Cambridge-Liverpool Street service feels about right, but more capacity on the Cam-Stan flow would be beneficial. Perhaps a wild suggestion would be to add a half hourly Cambridge North-Stanstead service.

 

[700720]

I know GA were/are planning a WAML service change to reflect Cambridges growing importance, probably now in December 25 to coincide with the ECML timetable change/Cambridge South. I wonder if anyone here actually knows what that's planned to involve.

Based on my experience I think the Cambridge-Liverpool Street service feels about right, but more capacity on the Cam-Stan flow would be beneficial. Perhaps a wild suggestion would be to add a half hourly Cambridge North-Stanstead service.

IIRC pre-covid they were planning a new 1tph Cambridge - Liverpool St service, calling only at Audley End and Tottenham Hale. This could potentially be included in the new WA timetable in Dec 2025 although I doubt it. You can see the beginnings of this with the 08:03 and 08:33 from Liverpool Street.

 

[Halish Railway]

Based on my experience I think the Cambridge-Liverpool Street service feels about right, but more capacity on the Cam-Stan flow would be beneficial. Perhaps a wild suggestion would be to add a half hourly Cambridge North-Stanstead service.

Or better still a Peterborough to Stansted service if sufficient 755s are available, although I’m not sure how interested Greater Anglia are in providing more services to Peterborough or whether it’s possible to path more trains through Ely.

It would be enormously beneficial to Cambridgeshire if 2tph from Peterborough to Cambridge can be provided and long overdue.

 

[higthomas]

Or better still a Peterborough to Stansted service if sufficient 755s are available, although I’m not sure how interested Greater Anglia are in providing more services to Peterborough or whether it’s possible to path more trains through Ely.

It would be enormously beneficial to Cambridgeshire if 2tph from Peterborough to Cambridge can be provided and long overdue.

That'd be great but I'd assumed Ely couldn't handle more, hence the intention for the major junction works.

 

[Magdalia]

Or better still a Peterborough to Stansted service if sufficient 755s are available, although I’m not sure how interested Greater Anglia are in providing more services to Peterborough or whether it’s possible to path more trains through Ely.

It would be enormously beneficial to Cambridgeshire if 2tph from Peterborough to Cambridge can be provided and long overdue.

That'd be great but I'd assumed Ely couldn't handle more, hence the intention for the majority junction works.

That's why it is imperative to make maximum use of existing capacity, and Cross Country aren't doing that.

They are falling down in 3 different ways:

• their trains are not long enough
• their trains do not stop at Cambridge North
• nearly half of their trains terminate/start at Cambridge, without running through to/from Stansted Airport

From the Cambridge perspective the Peterborough route is high priority, and definitely higher than Norwich. Cambridge-Peterborough and Cambridge-Norwich have similar flows, and Cambridge-March is about the same as Cambridge-Brandon/Thetford combined. But Cambridge-Peterborough has big connecting flows to/from the ECML, and matters more politically because it all comes under the Cambridge and Peterborough Mayor.

Fortunately the winds of change are starting to blow in the right direction.

• Greater Anglia comes back into the publicly owned railway later this year
• the devolution White Paper talks about Great British Railways working with local Mayors

My quick win would be to get rid of Cross Country and give the paths to Greater Anglia to run hourly Peterborough-Stansted Airport stopping at both Cambridge North and, when it opens, Cambridge South. Hopefully Great British Railways and the Mayor can sort that out.

 

[higthomas]

My quick win would be to get rid of Cross Country and give the paths to Greater Anglia to run hourly Peterborough-Stansted Airport stopping at both Cambridge North and, when it opens, Cambridge South. Hopefully Great British Railways and the Mayor can sort that out.

I think the loss of the Cambridge-Birmingham through train would be a big loss, and not worth what you're proposing. The right answer on that front is surely to ensure all STANSTED-Birmingham trains are 5 cars.

 

[Halish Railway]

I think the loss of the Cambridge-Birmingham through train would be a big loss, and not worth what you're proposing. The right answer on that front is surely to ensure all STANSTED-Birmingham trains are 5 cars.

How long is platform 2 at Stansted? Running longer trains to Stansted from the north is dependent on how long that platform is. Maybe any additional trains from Peterborough to Cambridge and beyond should just terminate at Cambridge.

 

[Class15]

That'd be great but I'd assumed Ely couldn't handle more, hence the intention for the majority junction works.

Will the reduction of freight trains towards Felixstowe allow extra passenger trains through Ely?

 

[Magdalia]

I think the loss of the Cambridge-Birmingham through train would be a big loss, and not worth what you're proposing.

Compared to other flows no it wouldn't. According to the statistics Cambridge-Birmingham is only about 13k and Cambridge-Leicester about 10k. They are about the same as Cambridge-Edinburgh/Leeds/York, all of which require a change. Cambridge-Peterborough is over 70k and Cambridge-March more than 30k.

How long is platform 2 at Stansted?

My Sectional Appendix says 91m. 4 cars of 20m stock should be ok, but not 5 cars. I think a 4 car class 755 would fit.

 

[William3000]

Compared to other flows no it wouldn't. According to the statistics Cambridge-Birmingham is only about 13k and Cambridge-Leicester about 10k. They are about the same as Cambridge-Edinburgh/Leeds/York, all of which require a change. Cambridge-Peterborough is over 70k and Cambridge-March more than 30k.


My Sectional Appendix says 91m. 4 cars of 20m stock should be ok, but not 5 cars. I think a 4 car class 755 would fit.

I think the 755s from Norwich to Stansted Airport run into platforms 1 and 3. Whether they is because platform 2 isn’t long enough or isn’t electrified, I’m not sure.

I think the loss of the Cambridge-Birmingham through train would be a big loss, and not worth what you're proposing. The right answer on that front is surely to ensure all STANSTED-Birmingham trains are 5 cars.

I completely agree that Birmingham to Stansted Airport services should be formed of 5 cars. Questions though - platform 2 would need to be extended. Unfortunately Super Voyagers and similar don’t benefit from Sprinter speeds. Basically the Birmingham to Stansted route could benefit from a bi-mode like the 755 but with an additional carriage to make it 5 car. It only needs to be able to travel up to 100mph rather than 125mph because the line between Birmingham and Stansted is pretty much 90mph max.

 

[cle]

How long is platform 2 at Stansted? Running longer trains to Stansted from the north is dependent on how long that platform is. Maybe any additional trains from Peterborough to Cambridge and beyond should just terminate at Cambridge.

Issue here is that we ideally want everything to reach South also.

Potentially a turnback somewhere between there and Stansted (single tunnel and platform issues) - might enable more.

A second Peterborough service would be very useful, regardless of how it is comprised. I’d think the Birmingham-Leicester extension oft mentioned would be handy. Uniform 2tph and Oakham/Stamford are also high traffic (for 1tph) and would benefit.

And yes, call at North.

Will the reduction of freight trains towards Felixstowe allow extra passenger trains through Ely?

One lever we shouldn’t rule out is taking back unused / growth freight paths. I know they are conditional / placeholder but eventually it needs correction, if it hampers growth.

But yes if services are being intentionally reduced then those paths should return to review. And in the case of Ely, it’s one of few tactics we can use today.

 

[A S Leib]

Would a Stansted or Cambridge – Stratford service be more trouble than it's worth, given that it's currently a fifteen-minute wait or less and (I think) a same-platform interchange at Harlow Town or Tottenham Hale? Greater Anglia, Crossrail and the Central line have connections at Liverpool Street anyway, having Harlow / north services serving Hackney Downs might be easier for easy connections with the Mildmay line, and people put off by a change at Harlow Town probably wouldn't make the change between Stratford and Stratford International anyway, leaving the Jubilee and DLR as the main connections a Stratford service could provide that a Liverpool Street one can't.

 

[Magdalia]

I think the 755s from Norwich to Stansted Airport run into platforms 1 and 3. Whether they is because platform 2 isn’t long enough or isn’t electrified, I’m not sure.

Platform 1 is long enough to take a class 745 and another train so the Norwich's usually go there. A class 745 usually comes in and out on top while the Norwich train is on the stops.

Greater Anglia don't use platform 2 because it is booked to be occupied by the Cross Country service for 46 minutes in each hour that it runs.

If platform 2 is not electrified (I can't remember one way or the other), that need not prevent class 755s from using it, they are bimodes. But platforms 1 and 3 are electric trains only so a class 755 driver needs to know where they are going!

Potentially a turnback somewhere between there and Stansted (single tunnel and platform issues) - might enable more.

I think this will get talked about seriously once Cambridge South opens, but that's a different speculation.

Would a Stansted or Cambridge – Stratford service be more trouble than it's worth, given that it's currently a fifteen-minute wait or less and (I think) a same-platform interchange at Harlow Town or Tottenham Hale?

Yes, more trouble than its worth! Tottenham Hale-Stratford is already 4tph and constrained by platform capacity at Stratford.

having Harlow / north services serving Hackney Downs might be easier for easy connections with the Mildmay line

The Herford East trains call at Hackney Downs so it is also possible to get to the Mildmay line by changing at Broxbourne. But the obvious route to the Mildmay line is Victoria Line from Tottenham Hale to Highbury and Islington.