The Ordsall Chord service only ran off peak six times a day for 5 months so I wasn't counting it. If politically possible I would divert ATW Llandudno to Victoria due to its low capacity and long occupancy of the Mayfield siding. I would "indefinitely pause" the third Ordsall Chord service and reduce the services to something like:
2tph CLC stoppers terminating at Piccadilly and waiting in Mayfield siding
1tph CLC Northern Connect
1tph EMT
3tph TPE
2tph Northern - Blackpool /Preston /Barrow /Windermere via Bolton
1tph to Wigan/Blackpool via Chat Moss
1tph Northern - Lime Street
1tph Northern - Wigan via Westhoughton
12tph of passenger services + 1tph of freight. Everything else can run to (or though) Victoria. I would start sorting out platforms so some Bolton services can run as 2 x 319s from Preston.
Once Oxford Road and junctions in the Manchester area have been rebuilt then platform 15 and 16 should be built. If they are built first then too many services will be crammed through them again and delays will stackup.
I thought Blackpool was having 2tph to Piccadilly. Are the Cumbrian services going to be hourly? Perhaps you could allocate 1tph to a third Ordsall Chord service instead. Hard choices would have to be made but 12tph through Piccadilly is still a big improvement on 8tph + 2tph of Oxford Road terminating services that we had until December. With the disaster of the new timetable in mind, it is hard to believe that much use could be made of 2 extra through platforms while neighbouring junctions are all flat and mostly slow.
I would be interested to see the breakdown of final destinations but I guess most people are heading to Manchester not the airport. There would be a same platform change for the Airport at Newton-le-Willows, dependant on decent timings. 2 or 3 coach units are unsuitable and the service fills Mayfield siding most of the time. Extending the CLC stoppers to termimate at Piccadilly would benefit more people and be a better use of paths and the siding.
Yes, Blackpool is to have 2tph to Piccadilly, but both via Bolton post electrification (one to the Airport, the other to Macclesfield). The 1tph from Cumbria will take over the Wigan - Chat Moss route. To run the CLC stoppers through Picc 13/14 and have 3tph over the Chord, you would have to sacrifice another service as well as the ATW.
The ATW service only uses the Mayfield siding in the peaks - it terminates at the Airport off-peak.
How do you propose to free platform capacity at Victoria in order to terminate the ATW service there? My understanding is that Vic will be maxed out for services from the west, once the Atherton line goes to 4tph and the Northern Chester to Leeds service starts.
I still do not understand the benefit of your proposal to remodel Oxford Road without building Piccadilly 15/16. This would effectively reduce the corridor passenger service capacity from the planned 12tph through Picc + 2tph Oxford Road terminators, to only 12tph through.
The Northern Hub specification originally included a requirement for a second hourly freight path to/from Trafford Park, which formed part of the business case for Platform 15/16 and the Oxford Road remodelling. Has there been any DfT/TftN announcement that this is no longer required?