Its better than it used to be. Certainly. But far from perfect. As I've said before, Thameslink/ Crossrail have significantly higher frequencies on two track lines by having a fairly simple service (Thameslink 's southern branches notwithstanding), so that a large number of the waiting passengers will board the next service meaning you don't have congested platforms like you would when people are hanging around 13/14 with it's messy combination of routes. Crossrail seems to cope with a train every couple of minutes, but Castlefield creaks as it tries to deal with a train every ten minutes or so. So I'd focus on what works, rather than what might eventually be built with unlimited crayons
My thoughts are as follows (based on no new infrastructure, because new infrastructure is a whole other debate):
Certainly I'd want to restrict 13/14 to only Airport services and any CLC services towards Stockport (i.e. the current Sheffield services). No plans for a return to things like Liverpool - Scarborough or Glasgow - Birmingham or Bolton - London running though Castlefield !
Personally, I think any airport services should be all stops south/east of Deansgate, providing a Metro frequency. There's clear over-provision of capacity on airport trains, so they could soak up any local passengers, a 'fast' service from Piccadilly wouldn't be able to overtake a stopper anyway so there seems no point skipping any. Daft to have lots of lightly loaded trains running non-stop though suburban stations whilst traffic continues to be bad on the A34 etc. Trains like 397s/802s obviously aren't built to accommodate 'Metro' operations but I think we have to recognize that the imperfect nature of Manchester 's railway geography requires some compromises. Whilst many of these services are very busy north of Manchester, there doesn't seem to be any problem with capacity on trains from the city centre to the airport (maybe passenger numbers would only justify a train every fifteen/twenty minutes from the airport to the city centre but I think that the politics of it all mean that we have to offer at least eight trains an hour because the fuss from people hundreds of miles away would be too much, even though places like Sheffield have lost their airport service without catastrophe)
I'd also want to consider stopping every Castlefield/Airport train that passes though Salford Crescent at that station, given the connections available. If you had a minimum fifteen minute service from Salford Crescent to Pic/Vic/ Oxford Road/ Deansgate etc then the arguments about why someone's local station 'deserves' a direct service to a certain place might just calm down. Maybe not entirely though.
The problem with stopping everything in Salford is that the Airport trains already need to have restrictions at Bolton to stop them being flooded with local passengers, so I don't know how you square the circle of "Scottish services need to run to Piccadilly/Airport" plus "Scottish services can't cope with local passengers in Greater Manchester" and "a simple service pattern/ Metro frequency for stations inside Greater Manchester"
Ordsall happened. It wasn't ideal but realistically we can't mothball a scheme that cost best part of a hundred million pounds in recent memory, certainly not if we want to expect politicians to find the next infrastructure project for Greater Manchester. "You want us to commit billions of funding to your proposed tunnel under the city centre to link Piccadilly to Victoria but you're not using the last route that taxpayers funded that was meant to solve this problem?"
I don't know about the CLC. It's funny to read the enthusiasm for giving it to Metrolink/Merseyrail (with an obvious split at Warrington) from people who still moan about the equivalent buffers at Kirkby/ Ormskirk apparently causing all sorts of problems. A tram could at least stand a chance of providing a Central - Bank Quay link but you wouldn't get Burnham paying for expensive infrastructure outside Greater Manchester so I don't know how you'd fund/resource it. Plus, given the need to fit into existing Metrolink service patterns, would the frequency be five an hour (barely a change from the current four trains, so a capacity decrease for Warrington passengers when the short nature of trams and slower journey times are considered) or ten an hour (which might seem overkill)? So I've ignored this in my plans
With this in mind, I'll suggest a simple pattern of eight an hour from the Airport - all stops to Piccadilly - Oxford Road - Deansgate, of which you have
- Two an hour from the Airport to Liverpool (taking over the semi fast CLC paths currently provided by Sheffield trains - those Sheffield services to now terminate in the main shed)
- Two an hour from Crewe to York (and beyond) via the Airport/ Piccadilly/ Ordsall/ Victoria/ Leeds
- Two an hour from the Airport to Blackpool (following current service patterns)
- Two an hour from the Airport to Lancaster (extending every couple of hours to Barrow/ Windermere/ Glasgow/ Edinburgh), maybe with the Scottish services running fast from Salford to Preston?
- Two an hour from Oxford Road to Lime Street, stopping at most stations
Eight an hour though Castlefield would provide a simple 'turn up an go' arrangement in/around Central Manchester, with gaps big enough to accommodate irregular freight services and/or delays caused by problems hundreds of miles away. Liverpool and Warrington would retain an airport service, with the existing Lime Street and Llandudno services being diverted to Victoria in line with the TPE services from Liverpool and the Northern train from Chester. Castlefield would then be operationally separate from all other passenger services at Piccadilly, so delays wouldn't cross-pollute
Try where possible to keep services through Victoria running as simple, Salford trains towards Rochdale, Eccles trains towards Ashton, terminating any additional trains from the west at Rochdale/ Stalybridge/ lay over at Newton Heath (surely that'd be great for getting trains out of the way?)
Yes, it'll annoy the kind of people who want to link every combination of towns either side of Manchester together with hourly services, but these kind of wishlist are the reason we ended up with a messy combination of hourly services that mean you could have ten Airport trains an hour yet a seventeen minute wait before three in ten minutes