Pessimistic outlook for displaced rolling stock

[TheEdge]

So we have plenty of threads about ideas of varying ridiculousness about the future of plenty of stock. Now in the much celebrated case of the 442s despite all logic they have somehow found new life its much more likely that a fair number of 1970s/80s BR stock hanging around will only find new life as a tin of beans.

So then, what stock is confirmed as having its next destination as the BIC razor blade factory?

As I understand it the 313, 315 and 317 fleet is confirmed as doomed. As obviously most of the 373 fleet. And of course the Pacer fleet.

Then the speculation. Personally I can't see much of a future for a decent amount of the HST fleet. 153s are a bit unknown, depending on if they get reformed or become trailer cars. And my final opening offer to scrap, 90s and 91s. The 91s I can't see having much of a future (unless I've missed something). I have a feeling the AGA class 90 fleet won't have a passenger future, some may be bought into FL and used either as christmas trees or pushed into freight service but some may end up on the heap.

And now an open floor to everyone else.

 

[CosherB]

Logic would suggest that FL pick up the ex-GA 90s to replace the 86s to give a uniform electric fleet. Might not happen though ...

20s future beyong RHTT is looking bleak, DRS 37s being wound-down over time as numbers of 68s increase. 91s will be scrapped as there is no other uses for them, despite the more 'innovative' suggestions on here.

The most demic 60s get scrapped?

 

[TimboM]

I think a fair few locos in particular will end up in (Eastern) Europe - not sure if that counts as being 'scrapped'?! I think the 91s could go down this route if they're not cascaded somewhere.

The 90s seem to be the preferred traction now for Freightliner and DB on their intermodals - and with running them double-headed most of the time, I can see F/L being interested in expanding their fleet. (DB on the otherhand have a good number stored at Crewe, so you'd think if they wanted more they could dust down the less rusty ones).

...talking of which, they're a good number of 60s, 90s and 92s (and possibly other Classes) that have sat for years outside at Toton/Crewe and are beyond economic repair in some cases I imagine (particularly if there's a influx of recently used/working traction). Not a whole Class destined for the scrapheap, but at some point examples of some of these will I expect start the sad journey to becoming razor blades.

 

[Dave1987]

After the whole "442's are definitely heading for scrap", with certain members ridiculing any others who suggested anything else I take anything I read on this forum regarding rolling stock with a massive pinch of salt until I read it in MR mag.

 

[D365]

After the whole "442's are definitely heading for scrap", with certain members ridiculing any others who suggested anything else I take anything I read on this forum regarding rolling stock with a massive pinch of salt until I read it in MR mag.

True, but then none of us had suggested that the Class 707s should be taken off-lease in the next South Western franchise

 

[Domh245]

314s are gonners as well IIRC. I think that we'll also be seeing the scrapping of the 456s, SWT 455s, and most of the 321s as well, unless we see ROSCOs coming up with new and exciting ways of bunging diesel engines underneath vehicles for use on non-electrified lines. 458s will also have an unsure future I'd have thought.

 

[J-2739]

Al the PEPs need to be replaced; they're nice, but they've had their day.

Most MK3 cars should be scraped, save for the ones at Scotrail. All MK4 stock should be scraped.

317s and the surplus 319s should be gone too, and perhaps the 319s at Northern and LM could be replaced by surplus stock from Abellio East.

Pacers are gone, FINALLY, as well as the 153s possibly, unless they can be joined up in twos permanently.

Basically, I see much of the BREL stock disappearing, save for the 158/9s, which still have a bit of life in them.

 

[87015]

After the whole "442's are definitely heading for scrap", with certain members ridiculing any others who suggested anything else I take anything I read on this forum regarding rolling stock with a massive pinch of salt until I read it in MR mag.

Same MR that said that TPE had definitely not ordered new LHCS and who's contributors mocked those who had posted so?

 

[43096]

I think a fair few locos in particular will end up in (Eastern) Europe - not sure if that counts as being 'scrapped'?! I think the 91s could go down this route if they're not cascaded somewhere.

What use is a 140mph geared 25kV electric loco in European export markets?

 

[southern442]

314's are definitely going, and I think that 315's won't be able to find a home before their time comes. In fact, the only PEP stock that I can't see going in the next 2 years are the Southern 313's, because there doesn't seem to be anything to replace them with yet. Pacers are obviously gone, but other DMU replacements will be slow until more electrification is done and more DMU's are delivered/made available. After that the 153's and probably 155's will quickly be gone, followed soon by most 150's. As much as I like the 317's I think their days are probably numbered although I hope I'm proven wrong, and several 321's will probably follow close after.

 

[D365]

Basically, I see much of the BREL stock disappearing, save for the 158/9s, which still have a bit of life in them.

I'd say the Class 150s and 156s have a bit more life in them, the Class 153s are more urgent for replacement.

 

[3141]

Two years ago a person who said that in April 2017 we'd be discussing the likely scrapping of many of the 319s and many or all of the 321s would have been considered to be bonkers. Even suggesting that 455s and 456s might be going would be regarded as pretty way out. As for 458s.... Anyone who said that the 707s would be destined for transfer to an unknown destination before they'd even entered service would be denounced as a raving lunatic, totally out of touch, no idea how the railway works, and so on.

But now there's at least some uncertainty about 365s, and after what's happened at Greater Anglia and South Western, what might emerge from the West Midlands and South Eastern franchise bids? If I were a 323 I'd make sure my acceleration was 100% because that's what they're particularly good at, if I was a 350 I'd probably keep my Dellners crossed because I was only a few years old, but if I was a 465/466 I'd be clinging to the hope that they don't make many tin cans or razor blades from aluminium.

 

[fowler9]

Can't believe no one has mentioned the 507's and 508's. Doesn't matter if the new Merseyrail units are DOO or not a good number of us will be shaving ourselves using the old units soon enough. Very sad as they have been good servants.

 

[coppercapped]

Can't believe no one has mentioned the 507's and 508's. Doesn't matter if the new Merseyrail units are DOO or not a good number of us will be shaving ourselves using the old units soon enough. Very sad as they have been good servants.

Not quite as many as you think! A large part of the body structure of the PEP-derived stock is aluminium...

 

[Fuzzytop]

Two years ago a person who said that in April 2017 we'd be discussing the likely scrapping of many of the 319s and many or all of the 321s would have been considered to be bonkers. Even suggesting that 455s and 456s might be going would be regarded as pretty way out. As for 458s.... Anyone who said that the 707s would be destined for transfer to an unknown destination before they'd even entered service would be denounced as a raving lunatic, totally out of touch, no idea how the railway works, and so on.

But now there's at least some uncertainty about 365s, and after what's happened at Greater Anglia and South Western, what might emerge from the West Midlands and South Eastern franchise bids? If I were a 323 I'd make sure my acceleration was 100% because that's what they're particularly good at, if I was a 350 I'd probably keep my Dellners crossed because I was only a few years old, but if I was a 465/466 I'd be clinging to the hope that they don't make many tin cans or razor blades from aluminium.

As much as this thread is sad, the image of a 350 crossing its Dellners has made my Easter weekend

I guess we're in for some withdrawal-heavy years with the 2020 compliance. But aside from the pretty definite scrapping of all PEPs except 313/2s (the oldest!), the 317s and 142s, things seem so unpredictable at the moment that I really wouldn't like to say how many other classes will have been withdrawn in the next 5 years or so. With the never-ending demand, here's hoping they find uses for as much usable stock as possible.

 

[Cowley]

I'd say the Class 150s and 156s have a bit more life in them, the Class 153s are more urgent for replacement.

I've heard this said about 153s quite a few times recently. Why are they in more urgent need of replacement than 150s and 156s then? Is it to do with build quality/parts, something like that?

 

[Marklund]

What use is a 140mph geared 25kV electric loco in European export markets?

Probably the same as a multi-voltage, highly complex channel tunnel compliant locomotive.
Availability, and price.

 

[Blindtraveler]

I think once 321s which Scotrail has quickly shortened, converted and refurbished in the case of the 7 X LM ones start to come off lease in numbers I can easily see the 318s going from SPT land with the orrigional 320s plus 321 conversions soldiering on instead.

The fact that 30 or so Renatus 321s are being done but woant have much use on AGA for long spells death to all but the Bi Mode 319s on Northern Electrics with the 322 and 321s in WY going for scrap replaced by 379s.

I doubt very much the 365/465/466 will be scrapped as they can be brought up to standard easily and put to work. The 150s will be the first large DMU scrappage and the 156s may follow.

 

[D365]

... with the 322 and 321s in WY going for scrap replaced by 379s.

Three-car Class 331s (operating in pairs at peak times) will supplement the Class 333s and replace the Class 321/322 fleet. So that's already taken care of.

The 150s will be the first large DMU scrappage and the 156s may follow.

Is it not common consensus that the Class 153s are in the worst condition out of all the Sprinter types?

And are you intentionally neglecting the Pacers?

 

[Blindtraveler]

Not intentionally but much as it saddens me we know they are going.

 

[CosherB]

Most MK3 cars should be scraped, save for the ones at Scotrail. All MK4 stock should be scraped.

Scraped?!

 

[LiftFan]

Is it not common consensus that the Class 153s are in the worst condition out of all the Sprinter types?

They definately seem more destined to become scrap than the other sprinters, namely because of the bodyshell being so similar to the pacer and that they are awful for capacity in these days of demand (Even the Westbury - Swindon line appears to be overcrowding on that one carriage - not to mention I have seen a 150 and a 158 take its place a couple of times)

The alternative to keep them going is reforming to 155 although it seems costly for the saving of fairly old stock

 

[TheEdge]

I've heard this said about 153s quite a few times recently. Why are they in more urgent need of replacement than 150s and 156s then? Is it to do with build quality/parts, something like that?

There is no (practical) way of making them 2020 compliant as single unit. I think the main PRM issues are the small end passenger doors, narrow passageway at the toilet end and the fact fitting a universal toilet would take up a huge amount of the total space available. Therefore their future most likely doesn't lie as single units, if they are not scrapped they are expected to either be reformed as a "new" 155 type unit or simply be permanently coupled to 150s or 156s as trailers.

As to the structural issues I've heard various claims that some of the class has problems with the chassis sagging under the weight of equipment that it was never originally meant to carry, not sure how true those are.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

There is no (practical) way of making them 2020 compliant as single unit. I think the main PRM issues are the small end passenger doors, narrow passageway at the toilet end and the fact fitting a universal toilet would take up a huge amount of the total space available. Therefore their future most likely doesn't lie as single units, if they are not scrapped they are expected to either be reformed as a "new" 155 type unit or simply be permanently coupled to 150s or 156s as trailers.

As to the structural issues I've heard various claims that some of the class has problems with the chassis sagging under the weight of equipment that it was never originally meant to carry, not sure how true those are.

You're by no means the only person that has said this, but it kinda grinds my gears when the idea of 153s being permanently coupled to other units is mentioned and uses the term "trailers". I'd fully expect them to retain their engines!

Sorry about that...

The body sag thing is occasionally mentioned on these forums, I'm of the opinion that it's either a myth; or at the very least it isn't as widespread as some make out. None of the Northern units appear to be suffering to me, both 153s and 155s. Their design of long bodyshells with lots of small windows, along with riveted panels, does give them a peculiar look- which doesn't help!

 

[fowler9]

Not quite as many as you think! A large part of the body structure of the PEP-derived stock is aluminium...

Ha ha, my bad. Cheers for the info.

 

[CosherB]

There is no (practical) way of making them 2020 compliant as single unit. I think the main PRM issues are the small end passenger doors, narrow passageway at the toilet end and the fact fitting a universal toilet would take up a huge amount of the total space available. Therefore their future most likely doesn't lie as single units, if they are not scrapped they are expected to either be reformed as a "new" 155 type unit or simply be permanently coupled to 150s or 156s as trailers.

As to the structural issues I've heard various claims that some of the class has problems with the chassis sagging under the weight of equipment that it was never originally meant to carry, not sure how true those are.

Follow the modern fad of having no toilets at all in a "155"? :-x

 

[J-2739]

I'd say the Class 150s and 156s have a bit more life in them, the Class 153s are more urgent for replacement.

If Northern doesn't do anything about the 150s, then trust me, they're gonna get rid of them by 2030. Nasty square boxes, they are.

It's been a long time since I've been on a 156, but they're just as old as any other BREL unit. They could maybe have air conditioning fitted to make them just as good as the 158s, but apart from that, they're probably not gonna last.

Scraped?!

Scraped to the bare bones, that's what I mean!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It's been a long time since I've been on a 156, but they're just as old as any other BREL unit. They could maybe have air conditioning fitted to make them just as good as the 158s, but apart from that, they're probably not gonna last.

156s are not BREL products - they were built by MetroCammell at Washwood Heath.
Despite intensive use, they keep impressing with performance and capacity (23m).
With good end doors, they are ideal for medium-length regional journeys.
With an internal upgrade, they will last a long time.
They are about 4 years newer than 150s (1988 vs 1984).

 

[J-2739]

156s are not BREL products - they were built by MetroCammell at Washwood Heath.
Despite intensive use, they keep impressing with performance and capacity (23m).
With good end doors, they are ideal for medium-length regional journeys.
With an internal upgrade, they will last a long time.
They are about 4 years newer than 150s (1988 vs 1984).

I know, I was just saying they were as old as other BREL products.

I've not been on them in ages, so I don't really know them.

 

[TheEdge]

You're by no means the only person that has said this, but it kinda grinds my gears when the idea of 153s being permanently coupled to other units is mentioned and uses the term "trailers". I'd fully expect them to retain their engines!

Sorry about that...

I knew I would enrage someones pedant mode by doing that, I in no way did it with that intent...

The body sag thing is occasionally mentioned on these forums, I'm of the opinion that it's either a myth; or at the very least it isn't as widespread as some make out. None of the Northern units appear to be suffering to me, both 153s and 155s. Their design of long bodyshells with lots of small windows, along with riveted panels, does give them a peculiar look- which doesn't help!

Thats why I added the caveat to that statement, if it is real it not over the whole fleet. Someone did mention that the small windows close together can cause an optical illusion that makes it looked curved.