Pessimistic outlook for displaced rolling stock

[southern442]

Northern 323's anyone? Or is it too early to say?

 

[507021]

I don't think there'll be many (if any) 319s scrapped any time soon, although I think some could go for scrap in the early 2020s if they don't find new homes as either EMUs or BMMUs by then. I think at least part or all of a 507 could be saved, but I'm not going to get my hopes up any time soon. Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see a 508 saved, but the 507s have been here since the first units were brand new in 1978 and are true "Merseyside trains".

It's going to be a very sad day when the last PEPs go.

 

[physics34]

I still get the feeling we will hear somethings about the southern 455s and maybe 313s soon even before the lease is up.

With spare 319s and 365s floating about and the 707s maybe surplus.....

 

[D6975]

Northern 323's anyone? Or is it too early to say?

They are going to join the Birmingham fleet.

 

[43096]

They are going to join the Birmingham fleet.

Are they? So you know all the bidders for the next LM franchise are bidding 323s, do you?

 

[RichmondCommu]

By all accounts the class 121s don't have long left.

 

[TheDavibob]

Are they? So you know all the bidders for the next LM franchise are bidding 323s, do you?

Even if they're not, if they go for full fleet replacement (as far as I can tell the only other cross-city option, given the 323 performance) they'll still need a stopgap to cope with Bromsgrove and capacity enhancements - is there any reason they *wouldn't* go to the cross city line?

 

[D365]

If Northern doesn't do anything about the 150s, then trust me, they're gonna get rid of them by 2030. Nasty square boxes, they are.

It's been a long time since I've been on a 156, but they're just as old as any other BREL unit. They could maybe have air conditioning fitted to make them just as good as the 158s, but apart from that, they're probably not gonna last.

They're really not bad units. Especially considering the alternatives of the time.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

314s are gonners as well IIRC. I think that we'll also be seeing the scrapping of the 456s, SWT 455s, and most of the 321s as well, unless we see ROSCOs coming up with new and exciting ways of bunging diesel engines underneath vehicles for use on non-electrified lines. 458s will also have an unsure future I'd have thought.

The ex460 458s (the ex Gatwick Express ones) have got an uncertain future as they have no pan well. The rest should have a good chance of finding a home as they have pan wells, the big questions is whether any of the internals are in place for conversion (wiring, electronics etc)

 

[J-2739]

They're really not bad units. Especially considering the alternatives of the time.

Yeah, I suppose. Don't really know them though.

The ex460 458s (the ex Gatwick Express ones) have got an uncertain future as they have no pan well. The rest should have a good chance of finding a home as they have pan wells, the big questions is whether any of the internals are in place for conversion (wiring, electronics etc)

I doubt anyone would be willing to be maintaining such a microfleet.

 

[Cowley]

There is no (practical) way of making them 2020 compliant as single unit. I think the main PRM issues are the small end passenger doors, narrow passageway at the toilet end and the fact fitting a universal toilet would take up a huge amount of the total space available. Therefore their future most likely doesn't lie as single units, if they are not scrapped they are expected to either be reformed as a "new" 155 type unit or simply be permanently coupled to 150s or 156s as trailers.

As to the structural issues I've heard various claims that some of the class has problems with the chassis sagging under the weight of equipment that it was never originally meant to carry, not sure how true those are.

Thanks for that, makes a lot of sense.

 

[43074]

The ex460 458s (the ex Gatwick Express ones) have got an uncertain future as they have no pan well. The rest should have a good chance of finding a home as they have pan wells, the big questions is whether any of the internals are in place for conversion (wiring, electronics etc)

Wibble... I doubt it is beyond the realms of possibility to fit a pan well to those units which don't have a pan well, the questions that need asking are "is there anywhere that needs extra trains and are they actually suitable for the job".

Personally I think they will have a difficult job of finding a new home because they are a relatively bespoke fleet, there are now, or will be, plenty of more reliable and/or newer units out there and new trains are relatively cheap to buy at the moment because of the low interest rates - if a bidder is considering any number of new trains in a franchise bid they are unlikely to even consider using 458s for the reasons above.

NB - It would be a different situation for every single electric train coming off lease if various bodies (including Network Rail, DfT, Welsh Government et al) were actually capable of coherently managing the electrification of a railway, let alone completing it efficiently and affordably, in a very short timescale, similar to the way in which BR completed many of it's fill-in schemes in the late 80s/early 90s.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

Wibble... I doubt it is beyond the realms of possibility to fit a pan well to those units which don't have a pan well, the questions that need asking are "is there anywhere that needs extra trains and are they actually suitable for the job".

The main issue would be if the pan well could be installed without compromising the crash structure.

 

[3141]

It would be a different situation for every single electric train coming off lease if various bodies (including Network Rail, DfT, Welsh Government et al) were actually capable of coherently managing the electrification of a railway, let alone completing it efficiently and affordably, in a very short timescale, similar to the way in which BR completed many of it's fill-in schemes in the late 80s/early 90s.

I was thinking on those lines earlier - if there was a will to electrify, the rolling stock will be available and that part of the cost is covered.

But you'd need a huge amount of infilling. Take Salisbury to Exeter as an example: 100 miles and a journey of nearly two hours. Allowing fifteen minutes layover at each end, the complete round trip would take 4 hours 30 minutes. With 2 trains per hour you'd need nine trains. If they were 458s, assume there are five journeys each way in the morning, and five in the evening, each of which needs two units. I think you need eight more units each time (I'm not an expert timetabler, obviously!). Seventeen trains, so allow three more for maintenance and spares, and that's not much more than half the class 458 fleet. Of course there wouldn't actually be a layover at Salisbury as the service would run through to Waterloo (I just assumed that to simplify the arithmetic), so we'd need more units and we might utilise 32 or 33 out of the 36 class 458s. But there's over 100 class 321s, fifty or more 319s which will be spare, twenty 360s from Greater Anglia, thirty nine 365s perhaps, over 100 of SWT's 455s with a lot of life left in them....how many miles need to be electrified to make use of over 300 4-coach EMUs?

 

[D365]

Yeah, I suppose. Don't really know them though.

So why are you complaining about them?

 

[47802]

I was thinking on those lines earlier - if there was a will to electrify, the rolling stock will be available and that part of the cost is covered.

But you'd need a huge amount of infilling. Take Salisbury to Exeter as an example: 100 miles and a journey of nearly two hours. Allowing fifteen minutes layover at each end, the complete round trip would take 4 hours 30 minutes. With 2 trains per hour you'd need nine trains. If they were 458s, assume there are five journeys each way in the morning, and five in the evening, each of which needs two units. I think you need eight more units each time (I'm not an expert timetabler, obviously!). Seventeen trains, so allow three more for maintenance and spares, and that's not much more than half the class 458 fleet. Of course there wouldn't actually be a layover at Salisbury as the service would run through to Waterloo (I just assumed that to simplify the arithmetic), so we'd need more units and we might utilise 32 or 33 out of the 36 class 458s. But there's over 100 class 321s, fifty or more 319s which will be spare, twenty 360s from Greater Anglia, thirty nine 365s perhaps, over 100 of SWT's 455s with a lot of life left in them....how many miles need to be electrified to make use of over 300 4-coach EMUs?

I'm sure there are better options for Infill than you suggest, and frankly while a home needs to be found for the 707's if surplus and the 360's and 379's I don't really see why the rest carn't go for scrap if not required.

 

[D365]

Why are 39 (?) Class 365s coming spare? What would replace the remaining Great Northern units?

 

[J-2739]

So why are you complaining about them?

It's not really a complaint, it's more more like, they're getting quite old, the design is old; wouldn't a long term plan such as mid life refurbishment or replacements work?

 

[43074]

I was thinking on those lines earlier - if there was a will to electrify, the rolling stock will be available and that part of the cost is covered.

But you'd need a huge amount of infilling. Take Salisbury to Exeter as an example: 100 miles and a journey of nearly two hours. Allowing fifteen minutes layover at each end, the complete round trip would take 4 hours 30 minutes. With 2 trains per hour you'd need nine trains. If they were 458s, assume there are five journeys each way in the morning, and five in the evening, each of which needs two units. I think you need eight more units each time (I'm not an expert timetabler, obviously!). Seventeen trains, so allow three more for maintenance and spares, and that's not much more than half the class 458 fleet. Of course there wouldn't actually be a layover at Salisbury as the service would run through to Waterloo (I just assumed that to simplify the arithmetic), so we'd need more units and we might utilise 32 or 33 out of the 36 class 458s. But there's over 100 class 321s, fifty or more 319s which will be spare, twenty 360s from Greater Anglia, thirty nine 365s perhaps, over 100 of SWT's 455s with a lot of life left in them....how many miles need to be electrified to make use of over 300 4-coach EMUs?

I wasn't really thinking of lines like Exeter - Basingstoke, rather things like Hurst Green - Uckfield, Ore - Ashford, the rest of the North Downs, the Sudbury and Felixstowe branches, the local services between Chathill/Morpeth & Newcastle etc, which would just take advantage of having EMUs available cheaply rather than needing them in huge numbers or having to build new units in the first place. You're never going to make use of all of them, the 31x units (upto 319) will probably be scrapped, same for the ex SWT 455s and 456s, I suppose the 321s given a 'Renatus' style refit could be useful though.

Why are 39 (?) Class 365s coming spare? What would replace the remaining Great Northern units?

It's still 21 units being released, those which were originally planned to end up with GWR.

 

[43074]

The main issue would be if the pan well could be installed without compromising the crash structure.

The main issue would be are the trains proposed to be redeployed in an area without the 3rd rail (yes or no), and if they are how much work is required, realistic and affordable to enable them to use the 25kv system. Anything like that would be included in the process anyway.

 

[AlanFry1]

Am I alone in really disliking the 710s?

 

[fat_boy_pete]

I wasn't really thinking of lines like Exeter - Basingstoke, rather things like Hurst Green - Uckfield, Ore - Ashford, the rest of the North Downs, the Sudbury and Felixstowe branches, the local services between Chathill/Morpeth & Newcastle etc, which would just take advantage of having EMUs available cheaply rather than needing them in huge numbers or having to build new units in the first place.

The Sudbury and Felixstowe branches will have Stadler Bi-Mode Units (BMU) from 2019, so a) don't need wiring and b) have 25Kv units already if they did!

I think the industry will be watching how the GA BMU's work out. If they get through their acceptance ok, then I think the Swiss factories will get some rapid follow on orders from TOC's for the 3 car BMU's to replace older DMU's. Stadler are quite happy to fulfil small fleet orders like the 14 x 3-car order for GA.

Why spend money on infill electrification or take a risk on refitting Diesel engines in 80's EMU's, when you can buy small orders of a proven BMU, with the UK acceptance hard work already done in East Anglia? Allows significant fleet diagram flexibility between electrified and non-electrified lines.

So alas the options for reuse of the older EMU's are narrower than you think.

 

[MK Tom]

On the Sprinter front, from a passenger comfort point of view, 156s are a world ahead of 150s and 153/155s. They're in another league - far more comfortable, far smoother riding, and their performance lives up to the 'Sprinter' name. Having some of the ex Anglia 156s replace 150s elsewhere would make a lot of sense to me, although they're suited to long distance work not urban commuter routes.

I don't suppose the DRS Mark 2s have much of a future. If DRS intend to continue providing spot-hire cover after 2020 I assume that'll have to take the form of modified Mark 3s or new build LHCS.

 

[Kneedown]

I've heard this said about 153s quite a few times recently. Why are they in more urgent need of replacement than 150s and 156s then? Is it to do with build quality/parts, something like that?

Built by British Leyland. Need I say more?

 

[Deepgreen]

SWT's 455 and 456 fleets are now seemingly doomed, despite the large recent spends on both fleets. The 456s may find use on Southern (!) I suppose, but it's much more likely that the 458/5s will move across to provide ten car formations there. Perhaps a 456 could have its front cab destination indicator working on the last day of service!

 

[Rail Blues]

I really don't see this process as being a cause for pessimism ... I can't get rheumy eyed about 1980s vintage EMUs and DMUs being sent for scrap, especially the Pacers and the 150s. I can't get that worked up about the Mk 3s, great in their day, but the last few I've ridden in have been shocking and Chiltern and Scotrail will have refurbished/modernised examples for the foreseeable.

I see the next 5 to 10 years as pretty exciting for enthusiasts, new rolling stock from a variety of manufacturers. Who'd have thought even three years ago Northern would have got any new build stock? Plus stuff getting shifted in the cascades.

It is also pretty good for passengers too and the industry as a whole, if it is going to keep pace with greater demand, it needs faster accelerating, more efficient rolling stock.

I'm really looking forward to seeing how all these changes pan out and riding on some new rolling stock.

 

[LowLevel]

All I can say about the 153s is that I can get my fingers through the gap at the top of the doors between the door and the door frame on some units. This doesn't suggest a superb body condition.

Our 156s are also in fairly poor condition bodywork wise with many having holes rusted through the cab sides and roof sheets being covered in patches of sealant.

 

[Mikey C]

With the SE London lines expected to get new high density stock (akin to what's being ordered for the South Western lines) this also puts the 465s under threat in the next 10 years, especially the GEC ones which haven't been retractioned, as there are few other places which could use them

 

[CosherB]

I don't suppose the DRS Mark 2s have much of a future. If DRS intend to continue providing spot-hire cover after 2020 I assume that'll have to take the form of modified Mark 3s or new build LHCS.

That all depends if DRS see a future for LHCS spot hire. Northern and GA will be sorted with their new stock and cascades, so no further need for Mk 2s there. They may well offload them to Riviera - I dare say the DRS items are in better nick externally and internally than some of their "demic" stock. More blue and grey paint please!

 

[swt_passenger]

The main issue would be are the trains proposed to be redeployed in an area without the 3rd rail (yes or no), and if they are how much work is required, realistic and affordable to enable them to use the 25kv system. Anything like that would be included in the process anyway.

If Modern Railways is to be believed (and why not on this particular point), back in about 2006 when it was being proposed that the 458/0s were about to go off lease from SWT; it was believed that the cost of fitting them out as 25 kV AC units was uneconomic. That was when they had about 25-30 years probable remaining life.

The ex 458/0 units aren't getting any younger, presumably today's business case for them would be even worse; and the ex 460 units even worse again...