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Passenger numbers after the holiday period

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Deafdoggie

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Then the railway needs to be allowed to build revenue. This is patently what its not being allowed to do. People want to travel by train - they are being prevented by the ongoing dispute and service unreliability.

And we don't know what approach a different party will take to the industrial relations dispute, so don't bother pretending that you do.
It would be a ridiculous stupid party that stopped private investment over spending tax payers money instead. And not a party I can see anyone voting for. So I can't see any party putting that forward in its manifesto.
 
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yorksrob

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It would be a ridiculous stupid party that stopped private investment over spending tax payers money instead. And not a party I can see anyone voting for. So I can't see any party putting that forward in its manifesto.

You seem to be labouring under the misapprehension that:

a) private investors are only willing to throw money at driverless technology so long as public transport is driven into the ground.

b) that public transport users are willing to put up with ten years of crappy public transport whilst self driving cars become a reality.

These are clearly not the case.
 

Deafdoggie

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You seem to be labouring under the misapprehension that:

a) private investors are only willing to throw money at driverless technology so long as public transport is driven into the ground.

b) that public transport users are willing to put up with ten years of crappy public transport whilst self driving cars become a reality.

These are clearly not the case.
I'm saying, if people who can't drive/don't have a car can get a driverless car cheaper than the train fare, why wouldn't they?

I suspect it may be quicker than 10 years. But the RMT has already said it's prepared to strike for decades so that's happening anyway, with or without driverless cars.

I know you think Labour winning the next election is the magic solution & you won't be swayed in your view. But if Labour do win, don't suddenly expect the dispute to be over.
 

Krokodil

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I'm saying, if people who can't drive/don't have a car can get a driverless car cheaper than the train fare, why wouldn't they?
And get stuck in all of the same traffic? Why would it be cheaper than the train fare. It'll be cheaper than a taxi, but not drastically so, the investors will want to get their capital back.
 

Sir Felix Pole

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Driverless cars, like certain IT projects, always seem to be 95% there. They may work on the sunny boulevards of California, but are never going to work on a wet dark night in Manchester or in the country lanes of Devon and Cornwall. And, yes, they use the same road space as cars with drivers.
 

irish_rail

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And get stuck in all of the same traffic? Why would it be cheaper than the train fare. It'll be cheaper than a taxi, but not drastically so, the investors will want to get their capital back.
Not to mention it won't be quicker in a car than a train over many routes.
 

Deafdoggie

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The technology is 100% there. The plan is they'll satnav their way round & avoid traffic as they'll know where it all is. And, of course, you will pay a cheaper fare if you share with someone heading the same way for at least some of the ride.
Because they are so much safer the insurance will be cheaper and that is what will force the switch for most people. Effectively manual driven cars will become too dear for most people
 

12LDA28C

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The railways need to act, and act fast, to get their revenue up to justify their future.
No one thought canals would become obsolete. Ignore the signs at your peril.

I believe you mean the Government should stop focussing on cutting costs and instead, allow the TOCs to invest in order to grow passenger numbers and revenue, something they are not in a position to do currently.
 

Merle Haggard

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One thing about driverless automatic cars that intrigues me.

In the future, when they are common and I still drive 'manually'; suppose I arrive at a T junction or roundabout where I should give way. If an automated car is approaching, what would happen if I didn't give way, but just pulled out in front if it? Presumably, it would be programmed to brake to avoid an accident so I would save time. At the moment, if I tried this with another (human) driver the result could well be either a collision (because of slower reaction than an automated car) or swearing, gesturing, aggressive road rage (none of which, presumably, the cars computer will do).
 

slowroad

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Public transport as a whole has great social and economic value to the population who doesn't have access to private transport, either on a long term basis or occasionally. Within that, rail has a great social and economic value to those who need to travel middle to longer distance journeys.

This is entirely outside of the benefits to decongestion within
There are benefits from decongestion of other modes and pollution reduction and it is right that these are taken into account. But these effects are not large enough to justify the extent of subsidy on low use routes and trains, especially outside congested areas. And any associated subsidies would not be needed anyway in areas with proper congestion charges and pollution taxes.

Beyond this rail has no greater social value than other modes, all of which support wider business and social activities.
On this basis cars have far more economic and social value as they provide transport for the vastly greater number of people who cannot conveniently use trains for the journeys they wish to undertake. Cars would therefore deserve the larger subsidy.
 

northwichcat

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That hasn't been the norm for a decade at least.

Trains into London in the peak are hardly empty anymore.

With WFH even less so. People work at home then head in for a gig, theatre, meet friends etc.

Some of the London trains run quite a distance before they turn around and go back. For instance, the 17:10 London Victoria to Dover doesn't reach its destination until 19:07, so is presumably the same train that gets back into London at 21:21 - a bit late for the theatre or a gig. It's difficult for journeys like that to ensure there's enough space for the passengers leaving London at 17:10 but not too much empty space later on.
 

Krokodil

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The technology is 100% there.
I can't wait to see how they cope with narrow country lanes.

The plan is they'll satnav their way round & avoid traffic as they'll know where it all is.
Something that everyone else has been able to do for years using Google Maps among others and which is naff-all use if all of the potential alternatives are also jammed. This being the key issue - driverless cars don't solve congestion, they just save a few parking spaces.

And, of course, you will pay a cheaper fare if you share with someone heading the same way for at least some of the ride.
A bit like being on public transport then (with everything that involves). Except that your daughter is now stuck in a confined space with a strange man. At least on trains you're rarely alone with just one other person.
 

Master29

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It would be a ridiculous stupid party that stopped private investment over spending tax payers money instead. And not a party I can see anyone voting for. So I can't see any party putting that forward in its manifesto.
What private investment?
 

12LDA28C

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On this basis cars have far more economic and social value as they provide transport for the vastly greater number of people who cannot conveniently use trains for the journeys they wish to undertake. Cars would therefore deserve the larger subsidy.

Why should cars be subsidised at all? You seem to have some very anti-rail opinions for somebody posting on a Rail Forum...
 

Master29

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The technology is 100% there. The plan is they'll satnav their way round & avoid traffic as they'll know where it all is. And, of course, you will pay a cheaper fare if you share with someone heading the same way for at least some of the ride.
Because they are so much safer the insurance will be cheaper and that is what will force the switch for most people. Effectively manual driven cars will become too dear for most people
And just like with satnav you`ll end up creating further traffic issues elsewhere when the main routes becomes blocked. The technology has been there for years as it has with electric cars. That doesn't mean a thing.
 

yorksrob

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I'm saying, if people who can't drive/don't have a car can get a driverless car cheaper than the train fare, why wouldn't they?

I suspect it may be quicker than 10 years. But the RMT has already said it's prepared to strike for decades so that's happening anyway, with or without driverless cars.

I know you think Labour winning the next election is the magic solution & you won't be swayed in your view. But if Labour do win, don't suddenly expect the dispute to be over.

The technology is 100% there. The plan is they'll satnav their way round & avoid traffic as they'll know where it all is. And, of course, you will pay a cheaper fare if you share with someone heading the same way for at least some of the ride.
Because they are so much safer the insurance will be cheaper and that is what will force the switch for most people. Effectively manual driven cars will become too dear for most people

That's the big question. Will the cost of hiring one of these cars (basically a driverless taxi) work out as cheaper than the train fare ? Particularly over longer distances.

This is all in the future though. Until this becomes reality, people will need public transport and it will be foolish of a political party to deny that.
 

Deafdoggie

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I can't wait to see how they cope with narrow country lanes.


Something that everyone else has been able to do for years using Google Maps among others and which is naff-all use if all of the potential alternatives are also jammed. This being the key issue - driverless cars don't solve congestion, they just save a few parking spaces.


A bit like being on public transport then (with everything that involves). Except that your daughter is now stuck in a confined space with a strange man. At least on trains you're rarely alone with just one other person.
But driverless hire cars will be able to get passengers in both directions and maximise their time on the road, and encourage car-sharing will reduce the numbers of cars on the road.
They'd have CCTV fitted with a live feed and no one would be forced to share. People have thought of
What private investment?
Lots and lots of firms have committed millions in investment. Some big household names you wouldn't think would be interested.
That's the big question. Will the cost of hiring one of these cars (basically a driverless taxi) work out as cheaper than the train fare ? Particularly over longer distances.

This is all in the future though. Until this becomes reality, people will need public transport and it will be foolish of a political party to deny that.
The aim is to make them cheaper than owning a car. That's the market they are after cracking. They are electric and take themselves off for charging when needed, but they'll do impressive distances without. But it then essentially removes the need for government to fund public transport. The private sector has done it by default.
 

irish_rail

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But driverless hire cars will be able to get passengers in both directions and maximise their time on the road, and encourage car-sharing will reduce the numbers of cars on the road.
They'd have CCTV fitted with a live feed and no one would be forced to share. People have thought of

Lots and lots of firms have committed millions in investment. Some big household names you wouldn't think would be interested.

The aim is to make them cheaper than owning a car. That's the market they are after cracking. They are electric and take themselves off for charging when needed, but they'll do impressive distances without. But it then essentially removes the need for government to fund public transport. The private sector has done it by default.
All sounds rather nice, but rather unrealistic at least in my lifetime.....
 

telstarbox

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And get stuck in all of the same traffic? Why would it be cheaper than the train fare. It'll be cheaper than a taxi, but not drastically so, the investors will want to get their capital back.
You would also get the productivity gain which the train offers now - you can do your emails or a Zoom meeting in a driverless car and you would have more privacy.
 

yorksrob

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The aim is to make them cheaper than owning a car. That's the market they are after cracking. They are electric and take themselves off for charging when needed, but they'll do impressive distances without. But it then essentially removes the need for government to fund public transport. The private sector has done it by default.

I dare say they will be cheaper than buying a car. Depends how cheap though, bearing in mind no service provided by the private sector is ever that cheap (thinking of all the utilities, media services etc).

Anyhow, whatever happens in the future, we still need public transport now.
 

slowroad

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Why should cars be subsidised at all? You seem to have some very anti-rail opinions for somebody posting on a Rail Forum...
I don’t think cars should be subsidised. Neither should trains. Road traffic should pay its full external costs, which would mean there is no reason for subsidising trains.

Trains are brilliant for some things. Transport of low numbers of people in rural areas is not one of them.
 

Master29

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I don’t think cars should be subsidised. Neither should trains. Road traffic should pay its full external costs, which would mean there is no reason for subsidising trains.

Trains are brilliant for some things. Transport of low numbers of people in rural areas is not one of them.
Not all rural areas have "low passenger numbers as you put it.
 

Krokodil

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The aim is to make them cheaper than owning a car.
Of course they'll be cheaper for all bar high-mileage users. Most private cars are really unproductive.

But it then essentially removes the need for government to fund public transport.
No it doesn't. Other than a slightly reduced need for parking, driverless cars don't make congestion any better, they still take up roughly the same road space.

Trains are brilliant for some things. Transport of low numbers of people in rural areas is not one of them
Come on then, do tell us, how will driverless cars behave on narrow country lanes? What will they do when they encounter another vehicle, will they know to back up into the passing space right behind them?
 

slowroad

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Of course they'll be cheaper for all bar high-mileage users. Most private cars are really unproductive.


No it doesn't. Other than a slightly reduced need for parking, driverless cars don't make congestion any better, they still take up roughly the same road space.


Come on then, do tell us, how will driverless cars behave on narrow country lanes? What will they do when they encounter another vehicle, will they know to back up into the passing space right behind them?
Heard of buses?
 

12LDA28C

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I don’t think cars should be subsidised. Neither should trains. Road traffic should pay its full external costs, which would mean there is no reason for subsidising trains.

Trains are brilliant for some things. Transport of low numbers of people in rural areas is not one of them.

So presumably you hated BR and were all in favour of railway privatisation? Many would argue that railways are essential infrastructure, a public service and should be provided by and paid for by the Government for the good of the people. Are you also in favour of motorists paying by the mile for road usage?
 

Deafdoggie

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Come on then, do tell us, how will driverless cars behave on narrow country lanes? What will they do when they encounter another vehicle, will they know to back up into the passing space right behind thethem
They'll behave as per the rules of the road. What were you expecting them to do??
They'll be aware of their surroundings, obviously, and remember where there were spaces to pass. It's, basically exactly the same technology as cars use now, just they'll be driving too. I don't know why you're so excited about it.
 

slowroad

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So presumably you hated BR and were all in favour of railway privatisation? Many would argue that railways are essential infrastructure, a public service and should be provided by and paid for by the Government for the good of the people. Are you also in favour of motorists paying by the mile for road usage?
I am in favour of road user charging, which should vary by location, vehicle weight and emissions, and by time of day, to reflect external pollution and congestion costs. Pretty neutral on rail privatisation - can run either way with or without subsidies. But hard not to notice the trend increase in passenger numbers following privatisation - either doing something right, or coincidence?

I agree there is a case for rail subsidy so long as cars do not pay their full external costs. But not without limit!
 

Merle Haggard

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But driverless hire cars will be able to get passengers in both directions and maximise their time on the road, and encourage car-sharing will reduce the numbers of cars on the road.
//snip

But that relies on an equal flow in both directions. If they're used for commuting to work most of the traffic will be in only one direction during the peak, just like other public transport. And the requirements for off peak travel will be just like other public transport, lower. So they'll spend their time idle in centres during the day, waiting for a return trip. Some will possibly be utilised no more than a private car just used for a journey to and from work.
I wonder how they will negotiate car park barriers so that they don't get tickets for parking on restricted streets ...
 
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