ORR release quarterly passenger data

[Horizon22]

I am surprised CrossCounty Trains only have 26 passengers per carriage given all the complaints about overcrowding on this operator. I use Chiltern quite regularly, which has the highest passengers per carriage of the non open access operators and they rarely are overcrowded, in the sense that people are standing.

I think the numbers are a bit off. For example, the average Elizabeth line service does not have 180 (9x20) people on board, even taking into account off-peak.

 

[Benjwri]

I think the numbers are a bit off. For example, the average Elizabeth line service does not have 180 (9x20) people on board, even taking into account off-peak.

They'll be skewed in the gym way the origin destination matrix is, but I wouldn't say the Elizabeth Line one is that far off. THey're very busy in central London, significantly over that amount, but especially at the Reading end, and late evening, early night they are quite empty.

 

[Horizon22]

They'll be skewed in the gym way the origin destination matrix is, but I wouldn't say the Elizabeth Line one is that far off. THey're very busy in central London, significantly over that amount, but especially at the Reading end, and late evening, early night they are quite empty.

Sure, but on say a Reading service, it would be a fair few people probably all the way to Slough which is a considerable portion of the day.

Of course you may be right in that the distances out further on the Thames Valley are also more significant, which may skew the distance/loading figures.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

I suppose the takeaway from the figures is that the railway is still growing.

 

[YorkRailFan]

I suppose the takeaway from the figures is that the railway is still growing.

*still recovering from the down turn during the Pandemic, whilst numbers are up from last year, they're still down from 2019.

 

[The Ham]

*still recovering from the down turn during the Pandemic, whilst numbers are up from last year, they're still down from 2019.

However, if you average the growth from 2006/07 to now it's an average growth rate of 2% per year. Whilst go back further (1996/97) and the average growth rate is a little more than 2.6% per year.

Yes we do need to recover more, however 2% growth year on year since 2006/07 isn't that bad, especially given that population growth over that timeframe has been 0.8% year in year.

It's also not bad going given that we've got ongoing strikes and not all timetables (or capacity for that matter) are fully resorted. That's going to depress use.

 

[Bald Rick]

It's also not bad going given that we've got ongoing strikes and not all timetables (or capacity for that matter) are fully resorted. That's going to depress use.

Well, yes, but compared to 2006/7 we have more trains in the timetable and substantially more capacity on the network. I’m also fairly sure the number of ‘seat’ miles being operated now is at least on a par with the pre-covid peak, despite a 7% fall in passenger services in the weekday timetable.

 

[Krokodil]

*still recovering from the down turn during the Pandemic, whilst numbers are up from last year, they're still down from 2019.

A year which was the highest on record and may not have been exceeded anyway. If we can finally have some stability in the railway (rather than having a government which seems hellbent on winding up the staff) then we might see a recovery at least to 2017/18 levels.

 

[absolutelymilk]

For anyone interested, by my calculations the Elizabeth line made up around 80m of the 230m growth in annual passenger numbers.

 

[The Ham]

Well, yes, but compared to 2006/7 we have more trains in the timetable and substantially more capacity on the network. I’m also fairly sure the number of ‘seat’ miles being operated now is at least on a par with the pre-covid peak, despite a 7% fall in passenger services in the weekday timetable.

I can't find the passenger vehicle data for 2006/07 but from 2010/11 to now the average growth on passenger vehicle km's has grown an average of 1.3%, and whilst that's higher than the 0.8% growth seen in passenger km for the same period, that in turn is quite a bit lower than the average passenger growth from 2006/07 (2.0%).

Therefore whilst capacity has grown, some of the big changes in rail vehicle numbers were either before 2006/07 or after 2010/11. That's not to say that there wasn't any, rather it was the time of the 395's rather than the 80x's, 390's (either batch), 221's or 450's.

 

[Bald Rick]

Therefore whilst capacity has grown, some of the big changes in rail vehicle numbers were either before 2006/07 or after 2010/11. That's not to say that there wasn't any, rather it was the time of the 395's rather than the 80x's, 390's (either batch), 221's or 450's.

It was after 2011. And also that the carrying capacity of each new vehicle is, on average, higher than the average capacity of old vehicles.

 

[Snow1964]

It was after 2011. And also that the carrying capacity of each new vehicle is, on average, higher than the average capacity of old vehicles.

Whilst true for many Express units like IETs with more rows of seats, complete opposite for some suburban vehicles eg 345s replacing Thames turbos and 315s. 701 seat quantity is lot less than a 458 etc

I would be very wary of saying overall seat count has gone up because of number of units that had 3+2 seating 13 years ago, but their replacements don't

 

[Bald Rick]

Whilst true for many Express units like IETs with more rows of seats, complete opposite for some suburban vehicles eg 345s replacing Thames turbos and 315s. 701 seat quantity is lot less than a 458 etc

I would be very wary of saying overall seat count has gone up because of number of units that had 3+2 seating 13 years ago, but their replacements don't

Thats why I said carrying capacity…

 

[Goldfish62]

701 seat quantity is lot less than a 458 etc

Class 458/5: 270 seats
Class 701/5: 274 seats

 

[Adrian1980uk]

*still recovering from the down turn during the Pandemic, whilst numbers are up from last year, they're still down from 2019.

Yes true and it's difficult to know if the figures now are recovery figures or we have reached new normal and this is genuine growth. 2019 was a peak but another 2 to 3 years and we'll possibly reach that peak again hopefully.

 

[Cricketer8for9]

Average busyness of any form of public transport can be misleading. Imagine a train heading one way with 200 people on board and the same unit heading away from the city with ten people on board. The average is 105. If all I ever do is travel in on that train I’d assume the train (a two-coach unit) needed to be longer. If I only traveled out I’d assume a minibus was enough. There’s never 105 people on the train (except for after the inbound stop where the 105th person gets on).

Thus using average usage can be a poor way to judge the requirements of a railway. It can be useful to look at trends over time. If the average usage is going up it’s probably good, especially if that is caused by more people travelling out (ie a less unbalanced railway) or more people travelling in the evenings and other quieter times.

 

[WAB]

Sums up the challenge most TOCs have, long trains are needed for 2 to 3 hours of peak services and then the run half empty through the day and the the long trains are need again for another couple of hours.

The difference with CrossCountry being that demand is heavy throughout the day on most services, and the logistics of keeping the doubles where the demand is are just too difficult to closely match demand. In comparison, commuter flows with more defined peaks and flows are easier to do this on.

That's problems with averages, it can mask big short term variations.

Thats why in the past I suggested cross country reform the voyager fleet into 6 car and 3car all standard class crowdbuster units with extra units used to lengthen trains on busy sections Bristol-Sheffield and Reading-Wolverhampton etc (3car never used on their own). Even if you don't do this, the lack of adding and removing extra units to strengthen the busy central section is part of XCs problem. In theory with their 5-10 minute waits at Reading & Bristol etc, there is plenty of time to do this. Instead XC persist with some 4car only units in Midlands that are badly overcrowded, and running some 9car formations to quiet fringes of their routes

Which services are you thinking of in particular? Are there capacity constraints which prevent detaching etc.?

 

[Snow1964]

New Quarterly data covering April - June is now published

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/b21mng22/passenger-rail-usage-apr-jun-2024.pdf

Shows a comparison with last year, but need to go into ORR tables 1223, 1233, 1243 and 1253 to do comparison to same quarter pre covid.

Did a quick scan and it's blatantly obvious some operators vehicle km have been cut much more than passenger km, (so trains more crowded). Some operators seem not to be expanding there vehicle or train km (not even returning to former level) even where passenger Km has returned to (or above) pre covid levels.

Also a quick division of vehicle km by train km shows on average some operators have seriously shortened average train length.

My final thought is Heathrow Express has shrunk so far, does it still justify 4 scarce fast line paths each hour. (From memory it is about 25km) so dividing vehicle km by passenger km suggests not even a handful of people in each vehicle. Someone might be able to do exact maths.

 

[Taunton]

My final thought is Heathrow Express has shrunk so far, does it still justify 4 scarce fast line paths each hour. (From memory it is about 25km) so dividing vehicle km by passenger km suggests not even a handful of people in each vehicle. Someone might be able to do exact maths.

It certainly no longer justifies 8-car trains at a time when there seems a stock shortage elsewhere. Whyever cannot half the units be released?

 

[The exile]

It certainly no longer justifies 8-car trains at a time when there seems a stock shortage elsewhere. Whyever cannot half the units be released?

Where is there a regular stock shortage of emus?

 

[Goldfish62]

It certainly no longer justifies 8-car trains at a time when there seems a stock shortage elsewhere. Whyever cannot half the units be released?

That would require persuading Heathrow.

 

[Djgr]

That would require persuading Heathrow.

Is there no government legislation to force their hand?

 

[Krokodil]

Surely since the opening of the Crossrail core HEx must be haemorrhaging revenue given the number of passenger who will no longer be paying those fares.

 

[Benjwri]

Surely since the opening of the Crossrail core HEx must be haemorrhaging revenue given the number of passenger who will no longer be paying those fares.

Heathrow Express Operating Company, who run the HEX, but still have to pay track access to Heathrow Airport Limited and Network rail, made a £18 million profit in the 2023 financial year.

 

[Krokodil]

Heathrow Express Operating Company, who run the HEX, but still have to pay track access to Heathrow Airport Limited and Network rail, made a £18 million profit in the 2034 financial year.

Your crystal ball is amazing

 

[Snow1964]

Heathrow Express Operating Company, who run the HEX, but still have to pay track access to Heathrow Airport Limited and Network rail, made a £18 million profit in the 2034 financial year.

I guess you mean year to 31 December 2023

Those Accounts also show £4m of the income was Crossrail and HS2 compensation payments

Accounts note 14 says the have extended their track access agreement to Paddington until June 2028, so I assume no one else can use those paths for nearly 4 years

 

[Benjwri]

I guess you mean year to 31 December 2023

Those Accounts also show £4m of the income was Crossrail and HS2 compensation payments

Accounts note 14 says the have extended their track access agreement to Paddington until June 2028, so I assume no one else can use those paths for nearly 4 years

Yes, now edited.

 

[jon0844]

Heathrow Express Operating Company, who run the HEX, but still have to pay track access to Heathrow Airport Limited and Network rail, made a £18 million profit in the 2023 financial year.

Only have to convince a handful of people in suits at baggage claim to buy a first class ticket to make half of that...!

A bit like WH Smith travel surviving on the sale of three bottles of water and a pack of Haribo.

 

[birchesgreen]

To be fair HEX is a nice little journey, i took advantage of their cheap tickets earlier in the year. Certainly a lot faster and more pleasant than the Liz Line coming back from Heathrow.

 

[Krokodil]

Only have to convince a handful of people in suits at baggage claim to buy a first class ticket to make half of that...!

True, foreign tourists are particularly vulnerable.

Certainly a lot faster and more pleasant than the Liz Line coming back from Heathrow.

Pleasant, certainly. Faster, yes. "A lot faster"? All of around 10 minutes.