Can the franchise requirements be changed after publication of the ITT, bearing in mind the upcoming spending review and the practically non existent business case for replacing Pacers? As in are people safe in trumpeting 'the end of the line for the dreaded Pacer' as on the BBC this evening, or may we yet be disappointed?
I disagree that there's a non-existent business case. Angel Trains have said refurbishing 142s is not economically viable and when fitting new final drive units for the 142s recently they only acquired ones which are expected to last 5-6 years.
Porterbrook came up with a plan for making 143s and 144s 'accessible' although apparently a minor exemption order would still have to be granted by the Secretary of State for Transport to keep them in service post-2019. However, the plan (which also fulfils the requirement of all on board train toilets needing to be retention toilets post-2019) reduces the capacity of an already small train further.
While Porterbrook have come up with that idea for Pacers they've not said anything further regarding 153s - when they previously said the cost of fitting an accessible retention toilet to a 153 was not economically viable, so it could be they can still try to flog those 'accessible' Pacers to EMT/FGW/ATW as 153 replacements.
Something is needed to replace the 79 x 142s with Northern regardless and EMUs will only go so far unless you invent a time machine. Does it not make sense for one order of new trains opposed to one small order for Northern, then in a few years time maybe one small order for East Midlands and maybe one for Great Western.
The new Northern rolling stock requirements (which exclude Pacers post-2019) are less strict than the Scotrail rolling stock requirements. However, I think if they are properly adhered to there's going to being few complaints from people in the North post-2019 that Scotrail trains are better.
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This. The 120 carriages as pacer replacement is an election bribe

That said I think the Northern ITT is quite good overall but the TPE ITT is somewhat confusing with no firm dates for electrification and IMO ruling out the most sensible option of taking on the ex-Scotrail 170's to allow an increase in services.
The TPE ITT also says bidders can present options for using 125mph stock on services which run on mainlines alongside other 125mph capable trains.
Strangely it says bidders should assume they'll start the franchise with the 185s, the 350/4s plus 4 x DMUs with similar characteristics to the 170/3s. What's similar to a 170 apart from a 170? Ignoring the Chiltern 16xs and the electric trains that leaves:
* Sprinters - with lower top speed
* 172s - same top speed but more commuter style layout with no FC
* 175s - same top speed, again no FC
* 180s/22xs - 125mph capable trains.
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TPE will be a smaller network, the extensions mentioned are potentially Newcastle-Edinburgh and, rather oddly, Man Airport-Crewe.
TPE also includes options for Manchester services leaving Scotland to have Blackpool or Liverpool portions on them.
As I read it the Northern Liverpool-Man Airport service will run via the CLC (diesel) rather than Newton-le-Willows.
Definitely still a requirement for Liverpool-Man Airport via Chat Moss in there. It's not clear where the fast Liverpool-Warrington-Piccadilly will go after Piccadilly. It seems Northern bidders will have flexibility over some Airport services but others will be a franchise requirement.
Where will Northern find the stock for Chester-Victoria-Bradford-Leeds?
Is this where the Liverpool 156s will end up?
December 2017 is the proposed start date. The released documents tell bidders to assume 158 running for timetabling purposes.
December 2017 should see a number of enhanced services, presumably as a result of EMUs replacing DMUs.
I get the impression ATW will no longer be required to run the peak time extras between Chester and Manchester as a result of Northern running Chester-Victoria-Bradford-Leeds